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WTI (Crude Oil)

oil 11-24 update.good evening, --- remember in my last oil post when i called the top? there was some really salty humans in the comment section who were most likely bag holders from the absolute peak of the bull run. this is an update for them. --- last post: --- i feel like oil has entered into a quatervois here, which is basically "crossroad" in french. currently seeing two potential trajectories: 1. -oil runs up to 100ish through an expanded flat (green targets most probable, grey are weak, and red is unlikely, but always possible). -after which, a swift downturn to my $57 target from the original post. 2. -oil simply see's a dead-cat bounce, creates another hidden bearish divergence, and rolls over yet again - continuing it's bearish trajectory to my original target. --- all paths lead down there, potentially even deeper - but the question as always is: which path's it gonna take? ps. no offense to all the people who talk smack on my posts, you're always welcome if you have a proper argument. just keep in mind, "fundamentals, is not a proper argument".
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by notoriousbids
2
WTI Crude Oil: Are we following BTC's previous top? 18/05/22 Shown is an overlay of Bitcoin's previous top ~$69k. We are showing very similar price action of a wide, heavy range at highs, with the micro lower highs on the underside signalling a continuation / blow off top spike is possible. Product supply is increasing from several refineries opening from maintenance alongside seasonal demand, allowing for the current upward pressure. Longer term problems for crude oil range from high consumer energy prices to a declining SP while $ strengthens. Several COVID spikes globally also once again pose a risk. This is a fractal that I have been keeping my eye on for quite some time, and is one that I have seen on several assets, across several timeframes.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by fvideira
8
WTI by KarolTWRopa w słabym trendzie spadkowym ale nadal ten trend trwa. Wzrost jaki się budował w ubiegłym tygodniu jest jeszcze naturalnej wielkości w stosunku do korekt poprzednich w trendzie. A więc jeżeli cena uderza w dół z układu 1:1 warto przyjąć scenariusz że zaczniemy nadal budować niższe dołki. Lokalnie zakładam iż dostaliśmy pierwszy impuls w dół i trwa korekta tego impulsu. Pierwsza strefa w której szukałbym sygnału spadkowego to zakończenie fali "C" k.prostej oznaczone kolorem czerwonym. Pozdrawiam KarolTW
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by TradeWarsPRO
Oil Forecast and Analysis for ending Sept. 21WTI crude futures were trading around the $80 per barrel mark, pressured by persistent concerns over a demand-sapping global economic slowdown, while a stronger dollar supercharged the bearish momentum. The US oil benchmark is poised to decline for the fourth straight month while heading for its first quarterly loss in more than two years as markets were worried that aggressive interest rate hikes could hit the global economy and energy demand. Still, an escalating energy standoff between the European Union and Russia threatened to disrupt supply further. At the same time, weaker crude prices prompted speculation that OPEC+ could announce another production cut next week.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by TayFx
2
Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown on WTICOUSWTICOUS - Intraday - We look to Sell at 85.83 (stop at 88.00) The medium term bias remains bearish. We are assessed to be in a corrective mode higher. Previous support at 86.00 now becomes resistance. Resistance could prove difficult to breakdown. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Our profit targets will be 80.06 and 78.00 Resistance: 86.00 / 97.20 / 112.00 Support: 80.00 / 66.00 / 44.00 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.'
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by OANDA
WTICIUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been very tight during the month of April, and it now looks as if we are trying to build up enough momentum to make a bigger move. It is worth noting that the uptrend line of the triangle is still very much intact, so you should pay close attention to it. It is as if the market is trying to determine whether or not the demand is going to overwhelm supply or vice versa. After all, there are a lot of moving pieces when it comes to the global economy at the moment. It is worth noting that we are just above the $100 level, and that of course has a certain amount of psychology attached to it. As long as we can stay above the $100 level and that uptrend line that I have plotted on this chart, then it is difficult to imagine shorting this market. If the market takes out the $110 level, it is very likely that we will have a significant amount of momentum building up for the buyers, and therefore could allow the market to go looking towards the recent highs, which is closer to the $130 level. However, if we start to see the global economy slow down enough to cause demand concerns, then it is possible that we could break down below the uptrend line. If we do, then it opens up a move down to the $90 level, possibly even down to the 50 Week EMA which is currently at the $83 level. This would more likely than not be based upon the idea of the global economy falling apart, which obviously is something that is a major concern now that China continues to lock things down. However, it is probably worth noting how strong the market has been behaving in the face of half of China being shut-in. With all this being said, I do have more of an upward bias, but I also recognize that things can change in a flash. Because of this, I will continue to use the triangle as a guideline as to where we go next, understanding that volatility is probably the only thing that we are going to see on a constant basis, so position sizing and stop loss placement will be crucial.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by SmoothJB
WTICOUSDThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market initially rally during the trading session on Thursday to retest the 50 Day EMA and of course the previous uptrend line. Because of this, it looks as if the downtrend is intact, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before crude oil breaks rather significantly, perhaps reaching the $95 level early during the session on Friday, and maybe even breaking down below there. If we do break down below that level, then I will be targeting the $90 level. The market is going to be concerned about the fact that gasoline demand is dropping, which of course is a situation where perhaps the market had gotten so far ahead of itself that it forgot that the “cure for higher prices is higher prices.” As the world looks likely to head into recession, this is weighing upon the crude oil market because it will drive demand down. There is a structural problem with supply over the longer term, but perhaps a recession might give the oil industry a chance to catch up. As we had been locked down due to the pandemic, it is not a huge surprise that when the economy opened up around the world that the demand shock pulled prices much higher. Now that it looks like the tide is turning, we may see oil drop rather significantly. On the upside, if we were to take out the top of the Wednesday candlestick, then it is possible that the WTI Crude Oil market could go higher, perhaps reaching the $110 level, maybe even the $115 level. All things have been equal, it looks as if oil is starting to lose its mojo, making lower highs along the way. As long as that is going to be the case, then I think that you continue to fade rallies, but you should keep in the back of your mind that oil markets have been extraordinarily volatile, especially with the Russian supply essentially being taken off of the open market. The US dollar has its influence as well, but this market has been rather strong for a while, and now it looks like it is finally running out of momentum. When a market gets parabolic the way this one did, it quite often is a sign of significant overextension.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by SmoothJB
WTICO-CRUDE OILThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has been all over the place during the trading session on Thursday, as traders continue to try to price in a bit of a premium for Russian aggression, and of course, the fact that most shipping companies will have nothing to do with transporting Russian oil, effectively taking 10% of the world’s inventory off-line. Going forward, the market almost certainly will find plenty of buyers, but I think we are getting close to a significant pullback. Quite frankly, there are only so many people out there willing to buy this market going into this type of volatility, and although longer term we will probably go much higher, you need to see a certain amount of profit-taking and of value hunting after that to continue the overall uptrend. On the downside, I see the $100 level as a potential support level, as it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that has been important in the past. We have seen a major breakout there, and I think it may have to be retested before we go much higher. However, this does not take into account that we could see a headline crosses the wires that send the market parabolic again, especially if it involves Russia. We are obviously in an uptrend and a very strong one at that. However, when markets become parabolic like this it is very difficult to keep up this kind of momentum, so the market almost certainly will have to pull back in order to attract more trading capital from big accounts. Even if you told me that we were most certainly going to fall in price tomorrow, I would not sell this market because it is so sensitive to the occasional headline. As far as changing the overall trend is concerned, I think we would have to break significantly below the $100 level because it would show a complete change in momentum. Unless Russia pulls out of Ukraine suddenly, I just do not see that happening. With all things being equal, this is a market that if you are patient enough you should find value that you can take advantage of. This is by far the preferable way to trade the market, as it has been so obviously one way.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by SmoothJB