Wyckoffredistribution
BTC Intraday Re-Distribution StructureBTC suffered some shock with latest supply bar on daily that came into the market. I am only bearish short term a retest of 42K region is still very bullish in the meantime
I beleive this is a short term re-distribution that will start the momentum for a move to lower 40's soon
Tesla Wyckoff Distribution + Redistribution Schematic with POIsLearning how to chart Wyckoff schematics with points of interest. I appreciate any feedback!
Bitcoin Consolidation Continues in a Second Wyckoff Redist PhaseHappy Wednesday everyone. I woke this morning not only to a breakout above the Redistribution trade range this morning, but an interesting Tweet from Barry Silbert about the slides in the Goldman client call this morning as it relates to Bitcoin.
"We believe that a security whose appreciation is primarily dependent on whether someone else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a suitable investment for our clients." - Goldman Sachs.
Looking at the Intraday Chart, the formation moved above the upper end of the trade range ($8,960) to $9,000 in an apparent Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) and signaled a false buy confirmation before reversing lower. The PA broke through the floor of the lower end of the trade range, signaling a second Sign of Weakness (SOW) and fell to a low of $8,700 before turning higher.
Overnight, the formation formed double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) at $8,720, signaled a buy at $8,740, confirmed the buy signal at $8,760 and advanced on what appeared to be a bullish breakout. The target price of the formation on this breakout (based upon the Horizontal Count Method) should be $9,300. The formation PA advanced on weak volume to $9,180 signaling a potential high pole reversal was in play with a target price of $9,020. I would expect once the formation to retraces to the $9,020 price level, it should reverse and advance again if the bullish bias prevails.
My feeling is a bearish narrative still prevails and I would lean towards a retrace and eventual continuation of the larger Distribution pattern for a few reasons.
When looking at the consolidation period and the recent breakout, there is a bearish divergence on the Volume Oscillator, which suggests a low/declining volume on the price advance. Also, a value below zero (-15.92%) on the breakout signals a potential trend shift incoming - both bearish indicators.
The advance did not hit the target price based upon the cause built from the congestion in the formation before turning lower. Furthermore, the advance was reversed just below a major resistance level ($9,200).
The bias remains bearish on the higher time frame (1D) as the Wyckoff Distribution continues to play out, looking to retest the lower end of the trade range at $8,120 and establish a potential Sign of Weakness (SOW) somewhere between $8,120 and the $7,700 level.
Looking at the 1D chart, the PA remains in a green candle. It pushed higher to $9,180 before stalling out. The current price of BTC is $9,136 as of this writing and, unless the daily closes out above $9,120 (preventing a reversal), the formation will print a lower high on the 1D.
My expectation the formation will print a lower high over the next few days remains unchanged. The formation still has room to run (up to $9,280) and can still print a lower high, but my feeling is we will visit the lower end of the 1D trade range ($8,120), retest the lower end, and potentially establish a Sign of Weakness (SOW) down towards $7,700 before reversing and moving higher again.
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
Bitcoin Consolidation in a Second Wyckoff Re-Distribution PhaseHopefully, everyone managed to have a great Memorial Day yesterday filled with a little bit of the normal we are all looking forward to returning.
Looking at the Intraday Chart, the formation appears to remain solidly within a second Wyckoff Redistribution. After the Selling Climax (SC) at $8,640 established the floor of the Redistribution trade range, the Automatic Reaction (AR) turned north to $8,860 and established a prelim upper end of the trade range for this Redistribution phase. The formation turned downward again and performed a successful Secondary Test (ST) of lower end of the trade range at $8,680 before turning north again to signal a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure) at $8,860. The formation continued to push past the double top to signal a buy at $8,880 and confirm the buy signal at $8,900 before pushing higher and stalling out at $8,960 to establish the upper end of the new trade range at. The lower end of the new trade range would be the prior high at $8,860.
Given we are in a Wyckoff Distribution phase which has yet to retest the lower end of the 1D (higher time frame) trade range, and the 4H Intraday trade range just exited a recent Redistribution phase, this confirmation to buy signaled at $8,900 would appear to be a false buy signal.
Immediately after establishing the upper end of the new trade range at $8,960, the formation turned lower and broke through the lower end of the new trade range at $8,860, as the PA pushed down to $8,840 in a failed test of the trade range. The formation turned higher again, and pushed past the upper end of the trade range at $8,960 forming a double top (a bullish signal in Point and Figure), signaled a buy at $$8,980 and confirmed the buy signal at $9,000 on a perceived Sign of Strength (SOS). Again, the PA stalled after the buy signal was confirmed, the formation turned lower again, and broke through the lower end of the trade range a second time. It formed a double bottom at $8,840 (a bearish signal in Point and Figure), signaled a sell at $8,820, and confirmed the sell signal at $8,800. Given back to back Signs of Weakness (SOS), I would expect the high of $9,000 is an Upward Thrust After Distribution (UTAD) rather than a Sign of Strength (SOS).
Currently, the formation has only $360 of cause built in from the consolidation in this second Redistribution range, which is insufficient to establish a decisive move in either direction. My expectation is this redistribution should play out in a similar manner as the prior Redistribution consolidation range, with almost as many candles in the horizontal congestion count before a move downward. The first Redistribution level had a horizontal count of 14 candles before sufficient cause was built up for a move down. The current Redistribution level has 6, so I would imagine we may remain here for another day or two before the next move.
Looking at the 1D chart, after the PA flipped to a green candle, it pushed higher before stalling out at $9,000. The current price of BTC is $8,843 as of this writing and, unless the daily closes out above $8,840 (preventing a reversal), the formation will print a lower high on the 1D.
My expectation is for the formation to print a lower high over the next few days. The formation still has a ton of room to run (up to $9,280) and can still print a lower high, although I see it as very unlikely while the PA is so strictly confined on the Intraday and signaling Signs of Weakness (SOW).
Always remember this is not trading advice.
Outside of that, Happy Trading.
Bitcoin's Price Movement Explained By The Wyckoff DistributionPlease leave a LIKE & Comment if you enjoy the analysis.
The Wyckoff distribution pattern has a range between $4800 and $6800.
According to the distribution, the price is currently in at the "Upthrust" point, since it has moved above the horizontal resistance level at $6800. This is the initial movement of phase "B". The expected future movement is a downward move that takes the price below the horizontal support level.
The potential low below the support line is known as the "Show of Weakness", which could be the catalyst that initiates an upward move which causes it to break out above the resistance line.
As for the exact value of the low, it is possible that this low occurs both below and above this support line. It is called the "Spring" if it goes below, while the "Last Point Of Support" if it is above.
Once/if the price reaches this level, we will have a clearer understanding of the time period required for the price to complete this entire distribution.
BTC - Wyckoff Price Cycle What if that is true? But may be is not ...
The condition of Reaccumulation and Distribution begin with the same action and in the same manner.
This is a stopping action of the prior trend. What follows is a large and often long trading range.
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: $5k - 4k ScenarioWhen I got to thinking about the Wyckoff Events, I thought about this as a possibility most are not considering (where April's low was just a Secondary Test). Complete Theory but we will know soon enough. Keep an eye on the resistance areas in case we start pulling back.
