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XAUCNY

Gold Poised to Shine - 18% Upside Projected by Completing Wave 5Gold is currently trading around 494.92 RMB per gram in China as of July 25, 2023. Based on the technical analysis on XAUCNY showing we are currently in wave 5, subwave 4 of an upward trend, the prediction is that by January 2025, the price for 1 ounce of gold will reach 16575 RMB. Given that 1 ounce equals 28.3495 grams, a price of 16575 RMB per ounce implies that the price per gram of gold is expected to reach around 584 RMB by January 2025. This represents an increase of approximately 18% from the current price of 494.92 RMB per gram. Going from subwave 4 to subwave 5 typically signals the final leg of an advancing trend before it completes the larger degree wave 5. If the analysis is correct, we can expect the 18% price increase to occur over the next 1.5 years as gold enters the terminal subwave 5. The ongoing expansionary monetary policies by central banks globally serves as a key driver supporting higher gold prices. High inflation levels in many economies incentivizes investors to allocate more funds to gold as an inflation hedge. Geopolitical tensions, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict also increase safe-haven demand for gold. While risks remain, such as potential interest rate hikes that strengthen the dollar, the overall backdrop still seems conducive for higher gold prices. From a technical perspective, the upside projection toward 584 RMB per gram over the next 1.5 years aligns with the view that subwave 5 will see accelerating upside momentum toward completing wave 5. In summary, based on current technical analysis, the prediction is that gold will reach 584 RMB per gram by January 2025, an 18% increase from today's levels, as it completes the final wave 5 uptrend over the coming months. The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment also seem supportive of this view.
SAXO:XAUCNHLong
by teconlab
ridethepig | Gold for ECB📌 ridethepig | Gold for ECB This leg is a demonstration of how and where an advance on the right break should be punished. Buyers reclaiming $1.860 yesterday while the inauguration/coachella took place and now $1,875 for the European open is sending last minute ⚠️ signal of ECB preparations. The technical breach illustrates the lust to expand, the momentum has been bottled up for a while. The swing chain demands a test of $2,015, play with the break because we are now into a very usable ECB territory. Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish on inflation, neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual bs 'watching the currency closely'. All in all the valid plan here is for Gold higher via inflation. Buyers are already trying the attack, it is quick to set in motion an impulse and buyers have formed a very strong defence at $1,803. Therefore remain long and play the continuation. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
22
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The lows in Gold are an elegant threat for another leg higher towards the highs; name wave 5 which is the one that we have been tracking since the previous diagram: I love it when an idea comes together. We arrived at the destination for our retrace and have started to form a base. Sellers are vacating! Moreover, buyers are now keeping their eye on the momentum gambits, these are particularly for their fancy. A change of scenery from the channel would be enough to do the technical damage, there is hope for the combination and recommend keeping some powder back to go massive when it start working. This is exactly the same way we played it with the 3rd wave up... try with one or two positions in the opening, no more. Once you break the block add another; and another; and eventually you build an entire account which gets new and decisive in its own way. Anything but selling the premium! So the XAUUSD annotation: Also much clearer is the flow in XAUUSD which, since the prospect of dollar getting devalued, makes it a lot easier and more important to track. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Gold in CNY📌 The struggle to claim 14,631 is notable. When studying the waves I came across similar a similar state of affairs in the earlier flows. The impulsive rally derives from its strong nature, not from itself but from much more the strategic concept of portfolio defence. A defensive move which is clearly crowded and starting to become a deer in the headlights could do with a push down to sharply shake out the late retailers who are attempting to eat off the march forward. Here we started to load longs on the breakup of the 3rd wave, a momentum gambit which we will discuss further in detail over the coming weeks, sellers outpost was taken exposing the highs. The long-term flows into gold are made from sound fundamentals and common sense ideas, however, it does not mean we cannot attempt to outplay our opponents in the interim... before they get comfy for a good night's rest! Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FX_IDC:XAUCNYShort
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | Liquidation followed by a bid for freedom📍 The outpost After sellers shamefully abandoned their outpost at 1765 in June, whenever a gust of risk gains some traction, buyers are able to exploit and win the battle. Let us start by looking at the original breakup. The difference between a protection swing and a momentum play can be seen in the following examples: Buyers open fire on the pullback into 1500's and sellers had to let go of the barriers. All of this was only made possible because of the earlier preparation. Those hedging risk had the unpleasant task of marching back and forth to keep an eye on the support. It was done in an ABCDE sequence which was essentially a self-fulfilling army. Once the position had arisen which typifies the start of a value swing, it was a game changer: You can see how buyers are eating sellers effortlessly. After a quick exchange, they are out the game. The point I am making is buyers are decisively in control of the flows; that is a fact. So the more distant retraces should be viewed as a gift; although the 🔑 @MEGALO1 made in the previous conversations was that they will be used sparingly. The diverting attention towards equities and the virus over the long weekend / early next week will be a prelude towards the march into $1,900 and $2,000. That in itself must be carefully prepared for. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by ridethepig
11
ridethepig | Sticking With Gold in CNY Here we can focus on the realms of reflationary risks that are around the corner, the struggle to shake out bulls is identical to the struggle we saw in 2016 which is reassuring, and for that reason our problem is reduced to a timing issue. For those tracking the previous diagrams in Gold it is obvious in USD terms both on the Weekly and Daily. Weekly: Daily: What is surprising is that the boat is still not fully loaded which is quite unusual to see this late in the game. The swings otherwise always appear as waves which are being defended and the defender is always assigned to a direction! Very true; but waves in a macro trend are swings of more importance. So it should seem relatively normal to treat them with full sizings and extensions. Here is clearly a strong move in miners, though it involves the sharp threat of capitulation for bears. Which would make things much easier for trading XAU: On the other hand there is also risk from 2's 5's: Bears will have to overcome the entire flow which is now ready to continue marching forward towards the targets. For those tracking the end of year positioning flows for 2020 Q1, reflationary risks are around the corner!! After months of choppy waters , finally bulls are emerging from beneath the woodwork as we begin the flows towards 1650. I stick to my average forecast of XAUUSD $1650 and expect Gold to hit $1595, $1650 and $1800 on a 6, 12 and 24m basis. This is my final target in the 5 wave swing, afterwards I will expect Gold to enter in consolidation via profit taking. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, charts and etc. And as usual the comments are open for all.
FX_IDC:XAUCNYLong
by ridethepig
Dodging the protectionism, the smart money buying gold*** THIS IS NOT AN ADVICE, DO YOUR RESEARCH AND TRADE WITH YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY*** A perfect complex inverse H&S just broke out and confirmed bullish. Gold continues to act as a safe haven, as 10y cycle alongside with scrutiny between big countries, we are seeing BTC going up followed by XAU breaking out upwards, the fundamentals and technicals are aligned. *** THIS IS NOT AN ADVICE, DO YOUR RESEARCH AND TRADE WITH YOUR OWN RESPONSIBILITY***
FX:XAUUSDLong
by JoE