XAU 1M Gold price formation history and future expectationsGold , or as denote the main trading pair XAUUSD , has been gaining a lot of attention around itself in recent years.
As soon as major analysts or hedge fund top-managers begin to say that the next crisis is near, investors immediately start buying gold as a defensive asset, and its price, accordingly, goes up.
Let's walk a little through the history of the Gold price.
We finished drawing the graph, to what exists on tradingview.com, based on the data that is freely available.
1) In 1933, to overcome the crisis after the "Great Depression", US President Roosevelt issued a decree on the confiscation of gold from the population. The price for an ounce of gold is set at $20.66.
2) In 1971, a real rise in the value of gold begins. After decoupling the US dollar rate from the "gold standard", which regulated the cost of 1 troy ounce of gold at $35 for a long period from 1934 to August 1971.
3) 1973 - "The First Oil Crisis" and the rise in the value of gold from $35 to $180 - as the main anti-crisis instrument, a means of hedging investment risks.
4) 1979-1980 Islamic Revolution in Iran (Second Energy Crisis). The cost of gold, as the main protective asset, in a short period of time grows more than 8 times and sets a maximum at around $850
5) During 1998-2000, the world swept through: the "Asian economic crisis", defaults in a number of countries, and the cherry on the cake - the "Dotcom Bubble". During this period, the price of gold was twice aggressively bought out by investors, from the level of $250. It was a clear signal - there will be no lower, next, only growth!
6) And so it happened, from 2001 to 2011 there was an increase in the value of gold from $250 to $1921 . Even the mortgage crisis of 2008 could not break the growth trend, but only acted as a trigger for a 30% price correction.
Looking at the XAUUSD chart now, one can assume that large investors were actively buying gold in the $1050-1350 range during 2013-2019.
It is hard to believe that investors who have been gaining long positions for 6 years will be satisfied with such a small period of growth in 2019-2020.
For ourselves, we establish a Gold purchase zone in the range of $1527-1600 per troy ounce, from where we expect the growth trend to continue to the $3180-3350 region
What are your views on the future price of gold? Share them in the comments!
