XBI
JUNO rounding.JPM conference presentation this week. If it's good, or if $KITE is good, this will move.
OPENING: XBI JAN 20TH 51.67/61/61/70 IRON FLYThere isn't much premium out there to be sold in index or sector exchange traded funds, but this is one of them ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 46%
Max Profit: $518/contract
Max Loss: $415/contract
Break Evens: 55.82/66.18
Notes: I'll shoot to take profit at 25% of max ... .
TRADE IDEA: XBI JAN 20TH 53.33/61.67/70 IRON FLYRotating into exchange-traded funds here ... . EWZ and XBI appear to have the best implied volatility rank/implied volatility percentage metrics. I already have an EWZ fly on, so XBI it is ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: 5.29 ($529)/contract
Max Loss: 3.00 ($300)/contract
Break Evens: 56.38/66.96
Notes: I'm going to shoot for a fill that is .05 about the mid price of 5.29. If it fills, it fills; no worries. Will look to manage at 25% of max profit as I do with all short straddles/iron flies.
WEEK OF 12/5: WHAT I'M LOOKING AT: XBI AND EWZWith the VIX still hovering in sub-15 territory and an examination of broad index exchange-traded funds therefore yielding less premium than I would like,* I'm turning my attention to sector exchange traded funds for possible premium selling plays.
Naturally, VIX levels could change in light of the outcome of the Italian referendum (as of the writing of this, Dec 7th expiry VIX futures are up .125 to 14.40, with Dec 14th expiries up a similar amount to 15.05. www.cboe.com).
After having ground through the entirety of "X" series SPDR's, along with a few non-X funds, it appears that EWZ and XBI offer the best implied volatility rank and implied volatility metrics for premium selling, with both being >70% in rank over the preceding six months and >35% in implied volatility, which is generally what I look for to play.
Since I already have an EWZ iron fly on, I'll look to get one filled in XBI (See Post Below).
* -- Currently, QQQ has the highest implied volatility of the four major index exchange-traded funds, but the Jan 20th 20 delta iron condor yields less than a 1.00 credit for a three-wide, which is what I like to see out of these trades (credit received > one-third the wing width).
XBI Big Move ComingI believe a big move is coming. I'm leaning bullish, but if we lose major support around 57.80 this will be a short play. It's important to be conservative. Wait for the break of resistance, or break of support.
Biotech RideBiotech went wild after Donald entered the white house.
It will rage for a while longer. When it hit the 75 mark, enter short with LABD.
Then ride it down to see the gap closing.
There is a risk that it will close the gap before it hits 75 - by e.g. double topping, but I find it more likely that it will now continue up to 75.
75 is the critical number for the short entry.
Biotech - LABU - XBI - LongIt seems like Biotech has found its bottom, we should rally from here... There is a strong chance due to the elections that we may get an undercut low next week to get all the retail traders out before the big rally.
Opening LABU position today with SL at today's intra day low.
LABULABU looks right here for a reversal. The Bullish Bat pattern is in play as we reached the 88.6% pattern today. We now have a chance to go to 50% fibo which is around $40.10
XBI Speculative Long PlayWe are finally starting to see some bullish indicators on the daily for XBI. Of course with bio, the swings are long and hard to predict bottoms, so this idea/play is pure speculative. Looking back we can see similar RSI divergence signals and MACD crossovers as to what we can "potentially" see here in the next couple of days.
Any bounce off the 55.95-ish area would be pretty bullish for a short term long swing, using possibly LABU. It'll be interesting to see what happens in the next couple of days...
WHAT I'M LOOKING AT NEXT WEEK (10/24) -- BANC, EWW, XBIFocus in the short term (which is 25-45 DTE for me) will be on ETF's, although opportunities could crop up with earnings (still hoping for a TWTR dip post-earnings to go long via short puts).
Here's what came up on my high IVR/IV screen:
BANC, IVR's 100/IV 100. Options, however, are crappy (monthlies only), but you can get something decent for a 20 delta short put if you're willing to go all the way out to Jan (bullish assumption). The drawback -- in addition to the fact that it only has monthlies -- is that it's a bank. Banks generally aren't known for high volatility, so if you get put the stock, it may be difficult to write calls for something decent to reduce your cost basis if vol collapses at some point going forward here. Things like short strangles or iron condors (which would be vol contraction plays) are cumbersome due to the unavailability of dollar wide strikes.
EWW (the Mexican ETF) IVR 97/IV 32. The general play on this has been bullish on the assumption that Hillary will win, since that's good for Mexico (Donald has said he'll rescind NAFTA, which would be bad for Mexico). I could see further upside if Hillary wins, although it may have priced some of that in already. The Dec 18th 47 short put brings in .70/contract at the mid (bullish assumption; straight premium selling or precursor to covered call). Although this is not the most liquid thing in the world, nondirectional strats like iron condors, short strangles, and iron flies are also workable here.
XBI (the biotech ETF) IVR 88/IV 40. Biotech's been getting a bit of whooping here, and it may not be over, since the notion is that Hillary's bad for pharma and for biotech. She's not keen on high drug prices and has vowed to "do something" to lower drug costs (good luck with that). In any event, the Dec 18th 52 short put brings in 1.07/contract at the mid. (Bullish assumption; straight premium selling or precursor to covered call). A short strangle or iron condor/fly are also doable here.
XBI Short Term Down Trend ContinuesDespite the gap up today, the short term downtrend is still in-play. Key support/resistance are converging which suggests a strong move either way. The descending triangle pattern seen here has a heavily has bearish probability. My 2 main trend indicators are EMA (13/48) and PPO (12,26,40), which are both bearish on the daily time frame.
XBI Daily - Time to Short Bio?There's nothing I like more than spotting similar patterns when looking at charts. History does tend to repeat itself. So what we can see here is a pretty standard MACD divergence forming right now, and what looks like a copy paste of what happened a few months back. I'm short until the bottom trendline. Weekly chart not looking good either, but we'll look at that Friday. We could see a pretty "YUGE" correction next week for XBI.
Breaking down Retest in 60's - Current support at 50 day SMAlooks ready to retest 60's where there is a large gap
