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Xleshort

XLE, Oil going lower, similar HS patter repeatsOil heading lower, 60 could be in the cards. Unusual spike in consumer spending on travel weakens, Summer driving demand slows. Bidens releasing more SPR doesn't help, prices heads lower, but doesn't encourage spending what ya don't got, and any excess cash goes toward food inflation which is unofficially skyrocketing, in case you haven't been to the grocery lately. Someone is deliberately destroying facilities where food is processed and stored. Not to mention trains derailing, limiting further supply of what they are transporting, even if it is chemicals, that we all use? Bottom line, consumer demand weakens, the FED's raising rates finally hits economy, FED gets their demand shock, oil lower. XLE nice short position here. Head and shoulders pattern begging for lower.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by claydoctor
A Rising Wedge in the XLE is setting up a shortXLE looks like its forming a nice Rising Wedge on the daily chart. The bad news is we're heading into the Summer which usually leads to higher demand, and Rising Wedges aren't particularly good performers from a statistical standpoint. The good news is that they do offer about 2:1 odds of a reversal once the Wedge breaks. In addition, the momentum indicators are displaying significant bearish divergences, and regardless of seasonality, the macro picture is suggesting global slowing of demand for energy. Therefore, the sum of the evidence makes this look like a good short candidate for a swing trade. Where it gets a little more tricky is deciding how to get short. As mentioned above, there's about a 2/3 chance of a reversal. The problem is that historically speaking, the average moves of the reversals (-8%) aren't much to get excited about. Over the next 30 days, the Options market is anticipating about +/ $8.84 of movement. This aligns nicely with the idea of a breakdown from the wedge, which could take price down to the Point Of Control on the Volume Profile aruond $76. All things considered, I like the idea of trading this with a defined risk position like a vertical spread. Something like buying the $80 PUT and selling the $78 in the July 1st expiration. This is trading for about a $0.51 debit and would mature to somewhere north of $1.00 if XLE falls to $76 over the next 37 days. Thanks for reading; all the standard risk disclaimers apply .
AMEX:XLEShort
by InnerMotionTrading
1
XLE - weekly charts - mild consolidation before further failureLet us again look out on how XLE is shaping up (previous analysis attached for your reference) Price moving just as expected, as evident in the charts, we had support on $ 53.36 levels , which was 24th Dec 2019 low. Price closed at about this level over the last few weeks but during the week, this level was breached. Minor cycle low formed 27th Jan 2020, 2 weeks later than we expected. As we move ahead, the next minor cycle and the major cycle will be moving upwards and the intermediate cycle will start to curve downwards. Following Hurst's principle of summation, we could expect the price to try and move higher over the next weeks. So far price has been making lower highs and much lower lows, indicating downtrend. Expect a failure on any attempt tp move upwards and intermediate cycle bottom around end of March 2020. Larger trouble remains ahead near Aug 2020 end as we would be seeing a bottom of all 3 cycles together. Keep an eye on how these charts develop to maximize opportunities of gain. If you like what you see, share a thumbs up and follow for more updates Cheers
AMEX:XLEShort
by LoveForCharts