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One way Ticket TOTAL Assets expand 10X off prior Crisis while...No tickie, No laundry. Simple really,. Where has it left us, this historical Credit Cycle? Here: A collapse in Global Economic Activity. The Highest ROC for Inflation in History. The greatest unwind of Consumer Confidence in History. The sharpest declines for Both M1/M2 Velocities in History. The Lowest percentage of Employed Workers in History. The Highest Homeless Population in History. _____________________________________________________ Dissention @ the FED with ONE EXCEPTION - there was complete and total agreement among the Fed BOG Voting Members and Non-Voting Members - ASSET PRICES ARE EXTREMELY ELEVATED. Simply read the Minutes - it's there in Black and White. Carlo lays it all out, concerns surrounding VX Curve on Short End of UST Curve, Asset VX, Asset Elevation, Inflation Target Remedy and on and on it devolves. They are engineering a Correction, period. As Wave 4 Due South sets up, the Degenerate Gamblers and those ignorant and unaware will be caught as the Tide is permitted to go out for what will be the shortest Taper in recorded History. A bluff, and then... Well, that is frankly akin to asking a Shark what's for Dinner. A renewed push by the Federal Reserve at unimaginable levels of Shadow Banking Expansions.
FRED:WALCLShort
by HK_L61
TLT - Longer End 10/20/30 FlatteningSince 2002 when GSCO's Timothy Bitsberger's began his reign as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury. Fiscal Fundings began to move down the curve to under 30 Months and accumulate a large concentration within this timeframe. It placed the burden of Government Finance up on the Short End of the Yield Curve near the region of control for the Federal Reserve and their ability to drive Monetary Policy. During the waning decades to today, the Bond Markets have become 11.2X the size of Equities. Since 2008 we have witnessed a rapid acceleration in Money Stock, one which remains underreported then (as the FED ceased reporting M2) to today where the very life blood of Credit Growth Velocity has dried up and reversed. TARP, TALF and the Yield Swaps accumulated $32 Trillion in Debt. 91% of the American Public was against these Monetary Measure then.... Today they Gag for it as the Global Economy lays in ruin. Independent Producers have been wrecked to the point, recovery is simply not viable. The FED Minutes served to provide several references to moving up the Timeline for Tapering. This provides cover for Powell's (we'll let ya know while we're thinking about thinking) as behind the scenes they are preparing for short duration reduction in the usual suspects - RMBS, CDO, CDO, Corp Debt, Zombie DEBT. Yield Curve Controls became evident as the 1.71 10Yr yield was not permitted to be breached, had it and Swaps would have been grossly offsides and created a large dislocation. At present, The uncertainty over the impact of this Policy change - Potential Policy change - remain in Flux. The Dollar, our target is 9465 ST, remains the wild card as the EU faces retribution for decades of abuse and a failed attempt at Negative Interest Rates - the vote of Confidence ALWAYS flows to the Currency of Seniorege, the US DOLLAR. Capital Flows favor US Markets as China is making it extraordinarily clear, they are closing off the Monetary & Economic Borders well in advance of the UNWIND coming to our shores. A steepening or inverting yield Curve is immaterial. We crossed the Rubicon long, long ago. As we witness the SPX to M2 Stock overthrow the .22 level - there is an important message there, extremely important, which is why we suggested the ES would attempt an over-throw on Friday @ the 4441 level. These actions ahead of Jackson Hole are significant. More to follow within the 5 Part thesis beginning with ES/M2S, TLT, Divergences, Capital Flows and "Resurrections' Trade" HK
NASDAQ:TLT
by HK_L61
2
SPX SPY ES - Throw Over - SPX/M2 Money Stock For HK, this is the most important Chart we follow and obey. The larger TF here - Daily - perfectly illustrates how Price moves along a trend range... Until it snaps and collapses quickly. This is precisely what we believe will occur in the next few weeks or perhaps sooner. We will see a sharp reversal with 2 distinct thrusts down as primaries. Time is running out for the Buy Side. What took months to build will be taken out quickly.
SP:SPXShort
by HK_L61
8
M1 - Velocity continues deterioratingAs BR & VG maintain a healthy prop under the Equities Complex.... Real activity outside of the "Markets" is grinding to a decided halt. Uncertainty has gained a foothold and it is not going to reverse in the near future. The spectacle in chasing Price, big greens bars... is merely a trade. It is not an investment, those days are long gone as the Fundamentals of our Economy have collapsed. The prop can buy time, but that is limited as well as Risk Factors only continue to compound. They are everywhere and well ignored by speculators and gamblers alike. Behaviors are symptomatic of far greater ills within our Culture, which had devolved to into a myriad of untoward circumstances. Patterns repeat. We are witnessing the transfer of wealth on a scale unseen in Human History. It is truly disturbing. The panic Sell can only be prolonged for a finite time. When Price cuts loose to the downside, most will Hold as the indoctrination of FED Policy and BTD is what plays. Until it does not.
FRED:M1VShort
by HK_L61
NQ - Micros, as Indicated BR/VG throw-over attempt is a SELLThe ALGOs are attached themselves to this Draw for Fills @ .618 off Lows or the -.382. There has been one toss over which has traded, there will be another simply to run all Retail SELLERs out of the SELL. This happened in 2020, it is happening again. Although Breadth expanded among smaller Caps and AAPLs Gamma Squeeze failed at the new ATH and top of the range - BR/VG continue to CONfuse Sellers with these prop house retracements. Volumes dried up at lows during Globex as the chasers pressed off the ledge and continued pressing until - a sharp reversal took Price to implied Targets above. Never discount their ability to FORCE a FILL. N E V E R. They always get it, it is purely axiomatic. This imbues the Dippers to reconsider their recent mistakes of chasing ATHs, but make no mistake... this MESS will drop so quickly, most heads will spin... it's setting up. ROCs to the downside will gain momentum as Wall Street gets its fill. Follow them, we do. It is how we traders win. They have the inside line on looming Geopolitical RISK.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
5
NQ - Sell Entries for Larger Decline (DX shows the way)Levels are for THIS Weekly Closing. .382 is the likely Level... unless BR goes full tilt Friday... tough move for them as it puts them out of balance. VG & BR played cat and mouse until 3:45PM EST this go around and then unleashed the afterburners expected early at 2:45PM EST. We'll take it as it shows the longer pattern of Distribution has come to a decided end. AS Liquidity dries up into Friday, they'll need to buy it... or it plunges. 14502 is our next primary Target as 2Day everything broke. Uncle Buck wants 94.65 - it will get there. TSLA couldn't save the ES, let alone itself as it tried and tried to break 696, Sellers said nope, screw you. 4441 ES pivot is now gone, adios... 4003 or so, 200SMA decline has begun, it's going to be sporty, so we've moved 1/2 positions out to December on ES and NQ - YM Losing 35K was an important footnote on the Day as it can RT. RUT = DOA, never able to recapture 2335. The initial leg has another 8% with ease prior to a whipsaw. CONfidence in Dipping is ending. Fear and cautionary tones setting in today. Ever gullible... changed their tunes as well @ 4:02PM EST. Only the Kinky Meme's are hanging in there, the usual suspects AMC< GME< TSLA (yes Tesla is a Meme imho) As Opex unfolds on an ill-liquid Friday, any large Volume profit taking will see a 3% down day without breaking a sweat. We repeatedly warned of this decline setup, although our higher Fills were not tagged, we're good with that, there is plenty more, a great deal more where today came from. Larger downside targets were all confirmed today, there isn't much out of DC or NYC that can reverse what is now in motion. Trust and Confidence were broken this week. Buckle up, it's going to be a nasty ride South for another 400 ES handles.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
2
NQ - DECWell that was fun, 157 Handies off DEC. Closed 2 on break of TGT Lows. Looking like much more to come. Closed ES @ 4410 from 4441. Closed YM @ 35101 from 35488 Closed CL @ 66.56 from 67.54 Closed VX @ 21.00 from 19.80 IN/OUT Burger on SOXS 2x for 37 ticks x 35K avepos. Closed RTY @ 2164 from 2199 TESLA - why bother, a very large percentage win. AMC - bag holding 10K in profit took off 4K for $8.3K. Ugly out there, Jerome said so. Today comes to an end, to those traders who followed - Congrats. We took da opposers $ all day. Doesn't happen often, but a solid win for team J.
CME_MINI:NQZ2021Short
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Defends with a Front Run on SEP CT - Aggressive BID comingProtection is being bid again in a larger than usual front run of Gap Fills below for the September Contract. Don Jerome Pablo Escobar Gavaria Powell made certain yesterday's close was another barn burner after announcing September would see the taper arrive. Thinking about thinking about thinking about thinking has concluded. All the signs were there, and... ya can't say the BOG @ the FED did not warn as Voting Member after Voting Member made it clear - it is time. And.... Corona Babona is Back Baby! How do you solve the Rental Crisis? With another crisis, of course :) No such luck today it would appear as FEAR is gaining further traction. RTY is leading the decline, ES NQ YM obliging the setup. Hopefully we see one more throw over for additional entries. Macro Data continues to confirm the Global choke hold as Growth is gone going. The Globex Gap down is ripe for continuation. Correction gains in probability as the chasers of the Likes of Tesla, Amazon and Semi-Conductors are being lit up repeatedly. Rarely, if ever, does the BTD and Hubris peak in a level of sheer silliness without cause in horrific Economic Circumstance. The Fanbois were smoked for 7% in 2 days. The APES pray to the Squeeze, the Gamers will need new consoles for the next big things and Nokia will head to $120. "They got a contract on the Moon Bro!" Ok, good luck. We'll take the hard fade on this every time. Enjoy the show.
CBOE:VX2!Long
by HK_L61
3
ES - Chopping @ HighsES SPY SPX preparing for a substantial Drop. We are anticipating 2 thrusts lower towards the 200SMA. It's been well over one year since we've seen a test of this level. For now, we are simply seeing further distribution on low volumes. A number of Divergences will complete this week after trading into the UTL (Upper Trend Line) and bring about the correction. Trading to and through the 50SMA will confirm the larger trade lower. Complacency is at higher than usual levels. The BULLs don't see this going down, not believing it can drop. The BEARs lose hope as they have been repeatedly beaten. Perfect environment... for those of us waiting for Fills at out levels. Empire State Manufacturing simply confirms what we have suggested for some time - Global Economic Activity is collapsing. There should be a dramatic drop soon, followed by a reversal to New All Time Highs. May profits be yours, they are here for the taking. Patience, it's here. 3588 is the must hold level, 3798 is our preferred level. roughly 3600-3800 is the desired Target Range.
CME_MINI:ES2!Short
by HK_L61
1
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows... Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of Trade Plan - Probability favors all. BTD chasers. We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is: Volatility Crush Reversal VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve we will have completed inverse ladders on the following Positions: VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08 Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06. VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K ______________________________________________________________ SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780 Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780 AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88 GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022 Collar at 195 Strike out through November. __________________________________________________ Financials ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES will catch the head fake for entry. Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket, OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY. Powell - Still Thinking about... *Clarida - Taper could begin later this year Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view *Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September *Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October *Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH. Events: ALL BOG Members voted for/supported: Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021 $1 Trillion CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
YM - Distribution Patterns creating Confusion and DelayUnmistakable Distro Pattern. Rotations are short lived. FED Purchasing Arms have reversal Fills on for decline while ATH after ATH is forced higher on decreasing Volumes. We have 35,912 to 36,737 as potential Highs for YM - Probability is Neutral for now, the overthrow would not hold and requires a quick and dirty move higher. The throw overs are common at levels, see December to February 2020. Precisely the same pattern of Distribution. Every throw over is a SELL imho. Consumers are pulling back on Spending as Prices continue to elevate. Supply chain reductions are assured as Global Production is in decline. Confusion and Delay is ALL that is in trade until the Reversal begins. Dumping your purse into Longs is an epic mistake. Monthly breakaway Gap @ 28,200 will be filled into October/November, prior to new ATHs. The lows provide a fair probability of holding, only to reverse and move quickly to new all time highs into 2022. The FED will permit a fair amount of selling pressure to reduce the need to taper, IF they were to actually taper Bond Purchases, it will not last for more than a few months. MBS provide a very telling statement of material FACT. FED Purchasing $40B we know of in MBS isn't signs of a healthy Housing Market, instead it suggests underneath the Headline Numbers, many of these products are failing. It is reminiscent of 2004. Distribution began in JUNE of 2021... lots of Overpriced Zombie JUNK propped up with share buybacks and Easy Cheesy Gamma Squeezy to unload.
UShort
by HK_L61
NQ - How many Taps @ 15170 are requiredTECH is a messy trade, the APEs, Fanbios and Degenerate Gamblers fail to see the structure, instead preferring to tout ATH after ATH. Irrelevant with respect to the larger picture which has clearly formed. The TECH Equities operate on Balance, TSLA is attempting to force a fill that requires the 780s to trade. Overlapping rotation from high to low end of balance. Consolidation range for break is the Market Depth, there are subtle nuances which clearly show the structure of the Distribution. It does not indicate CONfidence nor steady... tight ranges of push/pull demonstrate a LACK of CONFidence. TSLA remains a prime example of what's wrong with Market Structure. How is Tesla making new highs? Traders are choosing to ignore placing the wrong trade at the wrong time. Decisions are being made the Level is Long and yet the majority of the Volume is symmetric and small. The Profile is Long for a breakout. The Balance is leading to excess. It is as plain as day, right in the charts and OBV. Tesla is simply exhibiting exactly the same setup as the NQ. When the strafing begins, the Targets are always the opposing measured move back to balance. "The Markets will keep going up until the FED does something absolute." Potentially, but not always. This is what the Market Structure is exhibiting. Momentum Buyers chasing big green bars... This never ends well. Sellers are not running out of Bullets, they are patiently buying time to participate in the reversal of VOL CRUSH. This has happened time and again prior to key moves in prior quick, dramatic corrections. A look above, a head fake and fail. The Potential is extreme. D I S T R I B U T I O N
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
4
$3.5 Trillion in "Build Back Better" No sooner had the $1.5 Trillion Infrastructure in free cheese been passed for the Kleptocrats and they begin shoving another $3.5 Trillion Green Agenda. Adding to Inflation worries while Global Supplies of the "Things we need" as coming up well short. Bonds - Perhaps the CPI is peaking here at 5% Equities - Inflation isn't Transitory Metals - We don't get fooled again, yet you did Energy - The best thing to ever happen to Crude Oil, the Biden Admin Here's the clue - Inflation trade is OUTPERFORMING.
FRED:GFDEBTN
by HK_L61
NQ - One Enormous Range / ES YM RTY VIX Inversions.TECH continues to hold for now. Large Divergences on the Daily TF have yet to take hold. The Apex of the ascending wedge completes @ ~ 15323 inching its way towards our PO @ 15363. Equities outside of TECH can rise due to financial components and favorable rate environments for Banks. NQ Bank a solid indicator. ES RTY and YM are finding footing into higher targets for YM - 35,900 and 36,700. NQ would underperform. The VIX Is quickly moving to its lower boundaries down to 12.30 - 15.47 on the Daily. Lots of naysayers to this, yet here we are. Interesting times, trade safe.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by HK_L61
Elliott Wave View: Dow Futures (YM) Short Term Support AreaShort Term Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) suggests the rally from June 21 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from June 21 low, wave 1 ended at 34975 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 33624. Index has resumed higher in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 34034 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 33843. Index resumes higher again in wave (iii) towards 34789 and dips in wave (iv) ended at 34557. Final leg higher wave (v) of ((i)) ended at 35082. Wave ((ii)) pullback is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (w) ended at 34602 and rally in wave (x) ended at 35009. Expect wave (y) to end at 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (w) towards 34217 – 34521 blue box area. Index should then find buyers at the blue box area for further upside or 3 waves rally at least. Near term, as far as wave 2 pivot on July 20 low at 33624 stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Non- Farm Payroll Front RunAAII Bullish sentiment Indicator @ All Time Highs. ROC irrational optimism abounds - while sentiment remains extremely negative @ 38%. Housing Prices remain in an extraordinary Bubble with the 10yr approaching 1% from YCC. The ES SPY SPX Trend SLOPE is increasing. USDX appears to be supportive ~ 92. A weak US DX will shove assets higher within the Negative DX Trend. A clear structure of the resumption of Down Trend as the Long DX Trade which Specs chased is failing. FX Pairs have clear bias to Higher DX, outsized, but not extreme. Technical Structures across FX remain DX Bearish. Yields are telling us Equities would move higher and yet the expectations for the move higher was not met. _________________________________________________________________ *** Divergences continue to expand to Negative Extremes. NFP will be front run, Claims have been declining. August 6th may provide the Catalyst for Bulls, then again Delta is beginning to show large gains in New Cases among the Vaccinated. The Market remains extreme, Caution warranted. We remain Neutral into NFP.
FRED:NPPTTL
by HK_L61
1
A50 - China Contracting - Personal Consumption DecliningAs Kuh Kuh Cathy Woods finds God and re-discovers "Faith" in investing - her flock discovers the very same religious experience. Faith in Central Banks ability to backstop Markets is accelerating. The phenomena is not limited to TECH, it is global and it has expanded to every Capital Stock - Real Estate, Equities, Commodities and Bonds. Crypto and the Metals Complex are the laggards. This brand of unprecedented Mania has begun its Zenith Phase. It is well beyond the irrational Mania of the DotCom Mania, well beyond. Buy buy, buy... Sellers and Intelligent observers are mocked for their plaintiff wails of objection. Clearly there is an immense danger to this, one which will eventually present itself in the near future, until then the BBB Herd will expend all the Capital Energy they can and then move to Leverage via increased Margin. Margin as a percentage of Capital Stock for Equity is frankly minimal so there remains intense upside pressure for those who begin to cheer their own successes believing higher prices are expected. Caution for Sellers here as this can become far more distended. We will see how the updated Levels for NQ ES YM trade, Friday all Futures Indices hit their Extension Targets. Earnings is dead ahead and INTC gave a clear warning, it was not heeded as "Faith" itself and its followers pressed their luck. We anticipate this to continue after the July 21st reversal period was immediately snapped up 2X. Dangerous times, Good Luck and Trade Safe.
OANDA:CN50USD
by HK_L61
1