AGRI and all food related. Theme will be back and hard- 2021:
Russia - 13.1% total wheat exports
- 1.4% total corn export
- 20.2% sunflower seed/safflower oil
Ukraine - 11.9% total wheat exports
- 11.4% total corn exports
- 52.2% sunflower seed/safflower oil
Ukraine struggling to export due to ports being no longer in their control and internally with workers joining the fight against Russia and there being a major shortage of labor.
Geopolitical relations breakdown and deglobalisation through Russia relations with western powers (US/EU) constricting supply.
Countries restricting exports due to lower yield and wanting to ensure they have enough for their own people.
- Nothing is changing for the better from 1-3 months ago
- Crazy weather and heat waves throughout the EU and the world during this summer is only going to compound this into the Winter.
- I don't see one positive on the horizon that will ease the huge bid on all things food. Nothing. IF anything, its getting worse. Commodities like oil and wheat went though a huge push but I think its just the first leg.
- At the end of the day I see nothing easing this whatsoever, therefore, UP ONLY TV. And its only a matter of time before this theme/sector gets gas and around here might be the time to start building positions
- Outlined is a possible move out but at the same time it could swing below $2 again and them move.
- Proper structure above red would be nice but I'm in this one waiting for the theme to hit. And when it does it will hit HARD. Low vol, curling bottom. Nice RR and you can try it a few times because I see no reason or way the upwards momentum on food doesn't get hit soon
- Over 2.90 forget about it. It's going para
- One risk is the huge reserves China has. They will definitely use that to build stronger relations in many emerging economies that will be at risk of famine and starvation. But that inflow will only slow down not nearly stop what is coming.
