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ZARUSD

13 Rand per dollar is comingremember my previous rand idea, this is what it is based on. Daily timeframe we sold around 19 rands, because we had just completed a correction cycle Y which is a top when looking on the weekly timeframe. From 19.80 rands we have been in a sideways correction, so for the correction cycle to be complete, we need to break below 17.60 and break above it again, otherwise we will continue dropping till 13 rand, which is my hopeium target for rands.
Short
by Theofylrx
1
Is the South African Rand forging its own path against the USD?The exotic pair of the U.S. Dollar to South African Rand (USD/ZAR) has not correlated strongly with other USD pairs since this year. In fact, the USD is down 1.3% against the ZAR since the beginning of the year, all the while, the USD index has been super bullish, up 6.1% YTD. While performing better than the GBP, EUR, and other major partners, the USD is still trading just under last November’s high. With the seasonal tendency of the USD to weaken over the Northern hemisphere’s summer months in combination with the strong trend-bucking Rand, Is it looking unlikely that the USD will take out those highs over the coming months? A main reason for the ZAR’s strength is the interest rate hikes emanating from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB). Just last Thursday the SARB raised rates to 4.75% with a 50 basis point hike, which is the highest single increase South Africa has seen since 2016. It appears that the announcement was already priced in to the USDZAR since there was little volatility that followed. Several more aggressive rate hikes are expected from the SARB with at least another 50 basis point rise over 2022, and 100 basis points over 2023. USDZAR technical perspective On the charts, we can see the pair is floating just below the high created in November 2021. Just this month we've seen a new range created, to which the Fibonacci tool is anchored. There is also an Elder's Force Index (EFI) indicator on the bottom window. This indicator is concerned with the previous day’s opening and closing prices in relation to volume. Overbought and oversold conditions can be ascertained when the indicator moves above or below the zero line. At the time of this writing, the USDZAR is sitting above on the 78.6% retracement level, with the EFI below the zero line. If the price is going to take out last November’s high, then we will need to see a sustained support at this level. Ever the contrarian, the USDZAR may disregard the oversold EFI confluence and continue on its path below the 78.6% level..
by BlackBull_Markets
What to do with the rand?? for a South African citizen, global assets are essential given the fact that the South African market only constitutes around 1% of the global market whilst the South African economy constitutes 0.4% of the global economy. Simply put, South African need exposure to assets which are susceptible to short term movements in the Rand. The chart shows the ZAR/USD exchange rate in blue and the local financial index in orange. For the most part they tend to have a negative correlation. In other words, if the rand strengthens, South African financials tend to do well and vice versa. We can see that the long-term trend for the rand is towards a weakening bias. In the short to medium term, movements in the rand impact the ability to show South African investors a good return on foreign assets. in other words the currency factor increases volatility for a Rand investor or at least someone who spends their money in Rands (retired investors). South African financial are showing cheap valuations which discount the financial turmoil that South African consumers are facing. Therefore there's a low base effect which needs to be factored in (possible repricing of the shares). On the other hand SA financials are also discounting the fact that there ability to grow their earnings is perhaps less than desirable. Select financials are likely to be better performers based on the merits of their business however, from an overall financial wellness perspective, the index is not all that attractive over a 12-18 month period. The question is, will this help support a bottom range for the Rand at around R14 to the USD? If so, the risk of an extreme strengthening event hitting the rand is probably closer to 20% - 25%. Does this potentially support the fact that the rand should be weaker in the next 12 - 18 months? The clear and obvious unknown to this scenario is that if the commodity cycle continues and indeed accelerates, South Africa's income statement and balance sheet become marginally healthier and therefore could result in a re-rating in the Rand and local financials. Its important to understand that it not about trading the rand but rather trying to quantify its downside risk from a Rand investor looking to offshore assets. If one was able to close their eyes and forget the volatility in the currency, well then problem solved however, investor behaviour doesn't allow for that... Please like and follow. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
by JesseMorgans
4
USDZAR - Long Term Lookout ForexHi Everyone Been a while since I've posted on my account here! I felt like doing something different today (other than crypto) after someone asked me about USDZAR / Forex. Even if you're not into this specific trading pair, watch the video anyway, I mention some really interesting points that you can apply to your other chart pairs like fib time zones etc. The Fractal / Wyckoff Method: The Fractal demonstrating effectiveness of Fibonacci for time zones: The new fractal and accompanying Fibonacci time zone: Watch for 3 price targets before Feb 2022. Let me know your thoughts below, BlockTechEv
by BlockTechEv
4
ZAR strength not necessarily overMedium-term bullish trend still seems to be intact for the USDZAR, after its recent weaknesses (strength in the US Dollar). It currently finds itself back at the 50-day Moving Average (EMA), with a break and close below R14.07, bringing back the strong support level at R13.95. This is a strong support level, with a break lower, most probably bringing back R13.50 (short-term target). Should we however see further weakness, with a break above the bullish trendline at R14.30, could see the USDZAR only find resistance again at the 200-day EMA at R14.86. For now, I still believe that the Rand is in oversold territory, which is confirmed by its 14-day RSI.
Short
by SchalkLouw
4
The Rand looks mostly overboughtThe strength in the rand is partly due to the high demand in commodities of which South Africa is a large exporter. It is also partly due to the fact that South African government bonds are offering high real yields compared to that of its peers. These factors feed the demand for the rand and thus resulting i a stronger currency. There is also the case of a potential weakening US dollar As long as the real yields on South African bonds stay relatively high and liquid, coupled by the demand in the commodity cycle, the rand is likely to remain strong against the US dollar. The signals suggest that the rand has for the most part, found a short term bottom at around R13.95. The Stochastic RSI suggests that the rand may fall back to around R13.85 before it climbs back to around R14.10. Emerging market currencies are impossible to call but I'd bet that the rand should range between R13.95 and R14.20 over the next 2 weeks or so. The irony is that the forces strengthening the rand are ignoring the South African centric risk factors. Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
Long
by JesseMorgans
1
Emerging Currencies Gaining Strength??As we zoom out and look closely at the South African Rand, we see many signs of strength that have been building for some time now. I believe the ZAR and many other emerging currencies are all showing similar signs of strength and in the process of a reversal. While this may provide a great long trade and a short-term boost to the Peso, I fear it will have long-term negative effects. These are the things that lead me to continue to believe the dollar will continue to devalue. Emerging market currencies have consistently gained strength against the dollar. If the ZAR closes above the 13-year historical resistance by the end of this month, it will be a decent confirmation of a trend change. Unless we see some BIG power moves come from the dollar, I believe this is likely to continue. Not to put to be dramatic, but "IF" this does play out, it will be VERY difficult and drastic for most people's current financial circumstances in the U.S. If the US dollar loses that much purchasing power in relation to the rest of the world, it will affect people in many ways. If it now costs most companies a certain amount to purchase products, then the stores in the US will raise their prices significantly, at least to make up for the lost purchasing power, which means many will have to settle with less to provide for themselves. This may seem good for the emerging currencies and their economy in the short term, but I believe we are seeing a global financial shift that will affect everyone negatively, not just the U.S. economy. The U.S. produces very little in comparison to the rest of the world, so we will suffer because of this. IMO, the U.S. has sat on its laurels of being the biggest economy far too long, and it's caused us to have an economy that is far too reliant on other countries because we "had" the money to pay for cheap labor. I believe the U.S. will suffer a great financial loss because of our short-term approach and being far too prideful because we had more financial liberties compared to others. Essentially, The U.S. became conceited... This money printing has seriously backed us into a corner. Very similar to many ancient empires in the past. I honestly hope I'm wrong about this, the effects of this kind of macro shift could be devastating for many. When things like this happen, it's typically best to look into hard assets like Gold/Silver and even Bitcoin. Please don't take my brutal honest the wrong way, but I believe it's important to see the global shifts that are in place and consider taking the proper precautions. We're entering uncharted territory for the global economy and this will likely create unstable conditions for all.
Long
by CryptoSyphn
A differnt perspective on the value of the randAccurately and reliably forecasting a currency is near impossible, however, its easy to have an opinion. The question is, what do you base your opinion on? As a South African, I follow the rand closely, particularly against the US dollar and the pound. One can use a purchasing power parity (PPP) or real effective exchange rate (REER) chart to calculate a "fair value" through analyzing the numbers. But the rand has everything to do with sentiment and the global economy and very little to do with the South Africa economy. I put this chart together to try and understand the rand from a global context. Assumption: there is a high correlation between the price of gold in US dollars and the M2 money supply. The chart shows the M2 money supply in orange compared to the price of gold in rand terms which is shown by the blue line. We can see that the two lines have significantly diverged from each other over the last 8 months. If we assume that the M2 line will only ever go up and can never revert down, then we can assume that the price of gold in rand terms must also go up over time, all else being equal. It would therefore stand to reason that the price of gold in rand terms is in a cyclical low and may suggest an attractive entry point. What about the correlation between the price of gold in rand terms vs the rand dollar exchange rate? The green line shows the rand dollar exchange rate in comparison to the price of gold in rand terms. It's evident that there is a high correlation between the two however, the the divergence between the two particularly over the last 2 years, shows the real appreciation in the price of gold. So where does that leave us? The assumption that the price of gold in rand terms is correlated to that of the M2 money supply, suggests that the price of gold in rand terms needs to increase. The correlation between the price of gold in rand terms and the rand dollar exchange rate suggests that the rand needs to weaken or depreciate over time. Makes sense? I therefore ask the question as to whether the denominator that one should also follow over time is actually the direction of the M2 money supply in relation to the rand? This also backs into monetary policy in the largest economies and the US in particular. It stands to reason that the rand is far to strong at these levels if the world continues to print money? Its not sustainable! Thoughts? Please like and follow for daily posts on various asset classes. Please also share your views on the trading ideas and whether or not you find them to be of any value to you as a trader. Please note, this idea is shared for educational and discussion purposes only and should not result in speculative investment decisions in any asset class.
FX_IDC:XAUZAR
by JesseMorgans
BTC Breaking Out in the Weakest CurrenciesBitcoin is measured in dollars. So every chart that you see is bitcoin gaining or losing against the US dollar. At the start of bull markets, commodities start to break out in the weakest currencies. Then it starts to break out in the intermediates currencies, then finally it breaks out in USD. So let’s have a look at BTC compared to some of the weakest currencies and see if we are at the early stages of a bull market. So here we have the Brazilian Real, the Turkish Lyra, the South African Rand, and the Russian Ruble. They have all made new monthly closing highs. These can act as clues for the start of a bull market, which I believe we are in. It also goes to show you that the US dollar is eating other currencies alive! That is it for today. Keep your head on a swivel! Happy Trading!
Education
by derzzycharts
Dollar / Rand Short TermGood Morning From a partly cloudly but buzzing Johannesburg, South Africa! The 240 min chart (which I consider short term based on ZAR volatility) is currently 50/50 and could either be some kind of H & S / ABC formation headed to sub R14.10 (which would be a massive buy) or could consolidate to breakout higher. If this is a consolidation to trade higher be cautious as R14.50 is a critical level on many time frames and we will need a 240 min close over that to confirm a downside trend reversal. Should we see a pullback sub R14.10, then I would be a huge advocate of buying the Dollar as the natural stop loss would be sub R13.90 while the minimum upside target would be R14.88 and this will give one a 55/10 bet. Those are my kind of odds! “The secret to being successful from a trading perspective is to have an indefatigable and an undying and unquenchable thirst for information and knowledge.” Paul Tudor Jones Until next time vaya con Dios Giancarlo
Long
by Gianci278
1