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Ten Year Notes (ZN) May Find Support SoonShort term Elliott Wave view in Ten Year Notes (ZN) suggests that cycle from 3.24.2023 high is in progress as an expanded flat. Down from 3.24.2023 high, wave ((A)) ended at 113’3 and wave ((B)) ended at 117 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. The Notes then extends lower in wave ((C)). Internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave ((B)), wave 1 ended at 116’09 and wave 2 ended at 116’12. The Notes extends lower in wave 3 towards 115’13, and wave 4 rally ended at 115’29. Final leg wave 5 ended at 115’01 which completed wave (1). The Notes then corrected in wave (2) which ended at 116’16. Internal subdivision of wave (2) unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (1), wave A ended at 115’31 and pullback in wave B ended at 115’24. Wave C higher ended at 116’16 which completed wave (2). The Notes then extends lower in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 115’05 and rally in wave 2 ended at 115’18. The Notes then extends lower in wave 3 towards 113’04 and rally in wave 4 ended at 113’25. The Notes should soon end wave 5 of (3), then it should rally in wave (4) to correct cycle from 5.11.2023 high before it resumes lower. Near term, as far as pivot at 117 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside. Potential target lower is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave ((A)). This area comes at 111’31 – 113’28 where buyers can appear for 3 waves rally at least.
CBOT:ZN1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
$ZN_F: Bonds have bottomedI think we have a low risk trade here, buying bonds until March 17th or so. Weekly trend is up, until said date, and could after that form a new consolidation and new continuation pattern over time if my view here is correct. Definitely a good idea to have some exposure to bonds, I personally opted for buying OTM calls to ride this signal, but you could use futures or ETFs as well (or just buy the actual bonds). Best of luck! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZN1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$TLT: Keep an eye on this$TLT has reached the end of a huge weekly and monthly down trend, and made me think it could be a long lasting bottom for fixed income here. Question is: Does this low hold after the next FOMC or not? The daily chart shows a setup where a daily uptrend is set to expire by tomorrow, which could mean the current advance is over, or, perhaps, it needs some time sideways to build for a new move to the upside over time. If you can figure out what bonds will do, you have pretty big odds of getting all the rest right overall, so I'm extremely motivated to figure out what comes next here. Keep an eye out for the daily signal outlook here, and be on guard for a weekly scale breakout to the upside to buy or add to existing longs. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:TLT
by IvanLabrie
Elliott Wave View: Further Weakness in Ten Year NotesShort Term Elliott Wave view suggests the decline in Ten Year Notes (ZN) from November 20 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from November 20 high, wave 1 ended at 137.075 and bounce in wave 2 ended at 138.08. Wave 3 lower remains in progress and unfolding in 5 waves impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 137.23 and wave ((ii)) bounce ended at 138.05 as an expanded flat. The Notes then extends lower again in wave ((iii)) towards 136.16 and bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 136.24. Expect wave ((v)) of 3 to end soon, then the Notes should bounce in wave 4 to correct cycle from December 21 high before the decline resumes. Wave 4 is expected to unfold in 3 waves zigzag. Ideally it should reach 23.6 – 38.2 Fibonacci retracement of wave 3 before the decline resumes. As far as wave 2 high at 138.08 remains intact, expect rally to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside.
CBOT:ZN1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Elliott Wave View: Ten Year Notes (ZN_F) Impulsive DeclineElliott Wave View in 10-year Note (ZN_F) suggests that the Note has ended the cycle from June 5 low as wave (1). From there, the Note can do a pullback in 3 waves to correct that cycle. Down from August 5 high, wave ((i)) ended at 140 low. The bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 140.13 high. The Note then resumed lower in wave ((iii)), which ended at 139 low. The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave (i) of ((iii)) ended at 139.27 low and wave (ii) bounce ended at 140.01 high. The decline then resumed lower in wave (iii) and ended at 139.07 low. This is followed by wave (iv) bounce, which ended at 139.17 high. Wave (v) then extended lower and ended at 139 low. Afterwards, the Note bounce higher in wave ((iv)), which unfolded as a double correction. Wave ((iv)) ended at 139.14 high. From there, the Note has resumed lower again. Currently, wave ((v)) is still in progress. The Note can see a few more lows but it should be ending wave ((v)) and wave A in higher degree soon. This will be followed by a bigger bounce in wave B before resuming lower again in wave C. While below 140.13 high, expect the bounces in 3,7 or 11 swings to fail for more downside.
CBOT:ZN1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast