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Gold's Downtrend: Is a Breakout Imminent?Hello traders, what do you think about the gold trend? Let's set aside the news factors for now and focus on short-term technical analysis with a bearish outlook. In the current technical picture, gold continues to trade below the trendline, lacking upward momentum, forming a descending wedge pattern. The behavior around the convergence of EMA 34 and 89 also indicates that sellers still control the market. A sell strategy is favored, with attention to the support zone around 3,315 – 3,320 USD. If this level breaks, stronger sell-offs are likely to follow. What do you think about gold’s price today? Leave your thoughts in the comments below! Good luck!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Kevinn_Nguyen
Gold market price trend analysis and operation strategyGold trend analysis: Gold reached a high of 3366 yesterday, a low of 3320, and closed at around 3325. From the daily chart, the performance of the daily cycle is high and closed negative, and it may not be able to go out of the big rise in the short term. Gold will fall into range fluctuations. The rise of gold in this cycle has not actually been completed. At least it needs to go to the high point of 3400, and then look at the adjustment space within the week, but don’t look too much at the strength of the rise. The general trend is bullish, and we must also beware of the adjustment space that may fall back at any time. Gold tried 3375 several times yesterday and failed to break through, and then fell back for adjustment, indicating that the pressure on 3375 is obvious, that is, gold needs to fall back and correct in the short term. At this time, we are cautious about chasing more and continue to buy more after falling back. From the 4-hour chart, gold rose and fell yesterday, and the bearish trend did not continue. Gold entered a period of adjustment. From the current K-line, the downward momentum of gold is slowing down, and it tends to rebound in the short term. In the 4-hour chart, the lower track support of the Bollinger Band is near 3320, and the position of the middle track of the Bollinger Band is near 3345, which will form a short-term resistance. From the 1-hour chart, after yesterday's drop to 3320, it was strongly supported again and pulled up to above 3330. The support below is still strong. If the European session rises and breaks through 3350 today, the US session may go to the resistance of 3365-3375. Before breaking through 3350, the current market can only be regarded as a bottom adjustment and correction. Today, we will first focus on the rebound strength. If the upward momentum weakens, pay attention to the support of 3310-3300 below, and wait for the decline to be mainly low-multiple. In the short term, we will first focus on the breakthrough of the shock range. The intraday idea is to fall back to low-multiple. FX:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD OANDA:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD ACTIVTRADES:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Charlie_Senior_Analyst
1
XAU/USD – Long off Lower Channel + Fundamental Tailwind📌 Bias: Bullish (technical + macro alignment 🔹 Trade Setup Entry Zone - 3 245 – 3 255 Stop-Loss - 3 240 TP1 - 3 375 (Last Month High) TP2 - 3 475 (Upper Channel) 🧠 Technical Rationale - Price is respecting a clean ascending channel - Confluence at entry: lower trendline + last month’s low + hidden order block - Liquidity sweep expected below 3 245 before bullish continuation 🌍 Fundamental Tailwinds (July 2025) 🏦 1. US Dollar Collapse - The US Dollar Index (DXY) is down 10.8% YTD, its worst start since 1973 - Driven by: - Trump’s erratic tariff policies and fiscal expansion - Loss of confidence in US Treasuries as a safe haven - Moody’s downgrade of US credit rating “The dollar has transformed from a safe haven into a symbol of instability.” – ING strategist 🪙 2. Central Bank Gold Demand - Global central banks continue accumulating gold to hedge against dollar devaluation - This institutional demand underpins long-term bullish momentum 🔥 3. Geopolitical Risk Premium - Ongoing tensions in the Middle East (Iran–Israel, Gaza) and Russia–Ukraine keep gold attractive as a safe-haven asset - Even with temporary ceasefires, the risk premium remains embedded in price 📉 4. Fed Dovish Shift - Fed Governor Waller signals a possible July rate cut, citing weak labor data and easing inflation - Lower rates = weaker dollar = stronger gold 🧠 Final Thought This setup isn’t just technically sound—it’s fundamentally explosive. You’re riding a macro wave of dollar weakness, geopolitical hedging, and central bank gold demand. If price reacts cleanly at 3 250, this could be your high-conviction entry of the month.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by Billionaire_bills
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. Taking a look at the 4 hour chart i have marked my area of interest to watch for potential scalp buy / sell trade set ups. Lower time frame confirmation is a must. This is speculation for what could be a trade, not a signal or advice to just click buy or sell. All time frames must align. Remember that all we are doing as spot gold day traders on leveraged accounts is trying to ride the wave as it moves. Don't try to force or rush a trade. Big G gets my thanks and a shout out. Let's see how the Pre NY volume that is starting to come in now does for gold. Be well and trade the trend.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by musclemilk0075
NQ Weekly Recap-Projection 13.07.2025NQ Weekly Recap + Outlook 1️⃣ Recap: NQ made a new All-Time High, but the breakout ended up being a deviation. Price got rejected and started pulling back. This signals potential weakness and suggests price may want to explore lower levels. 2️⃣ Bearish Scenario: 📍Target: Daily Swing low (Blue line) 📍Deeper target: Weekly Fair Value Gap (Purple zone) I’ll look for LTF confirmations around these zones to position for potential longs. 3️⃣ Bullish Catalyst Watch: There’s increasing speculation that Powell may resign this week. If that happens, we could see: ✅ Strong bullish momentum ✅ Little to no retracement ✅ Immediate push into new ATHs Weekly Plan Summary: 🔸 Scenario 1 - Pullback Continuation: Look for reactive long setups at Daily Swing or W FFVG zone. 🔸 Scenario 2 - Powell Resignation: Expect a breakout move with momentum — potentially no retrace. Stay nimble. Trade what the chart confirms, not what the news promises.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by UA_CAPITAL
False breakout? Gold reverses sharply after news surgeBecause of the news that Trump hinted at firing Powell, gold surged strongly in the short term and passed to 3377, recovering the recent decline in one fell swoop. We went long on gold near 3323 in advance, and went long on gold near 3340 again after gold retreated, hitting TP: 3345 and 3355 respectively. The two long trades successfully made a profit of 370pips, with a profit of more than $18K. Although gold has risen sharply in the short term and effectively destroyed the downward structure, it is mainly news that drives the market. After Trump denied firing Powell, gold rose fast and fell fast. So we can't chase long gold too much. First, the sustainability of the news-driven market needs to be examined, and second, the certainty of Trump's news is still unreliable. He always denies himself the next day. After the gold price retreated quickly, a long upper shadow appeared in the candlestick chart, indicating that the upper resistance should not be underestimated. Therefore, we should not rush to buy gold. We can still consider shorting gold in the 3355-3365 area. We should first focus on the area around 3340. If gold falls below this area during the retreat, gold will return to the short trend and test the area around 3320 again, or even fall below this area after multiple tests and continue to the 3310-3300 area.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trading_Steffen
1
July 17, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: Although price pierced above 3375, it failed to hold. The market remains range-bound between 3320 and 3375 — treat it as a range for now, favoring shorts near the top and longs near the bottom. On a narrower view, 3358 is a key resistance — shorting near 3358 offers good risk-reward. Watch the strength of support around 3346. Stay flexible, respect key levels, follow the trend, and manage risk wisely. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3393 – Resistance • 3384 – Resistance • 3375 – Top of range • 3366 – Resistance • 3358 – Resistance • 3350 – Midpoint • 3343 – Key support • 3332–3336 – Support zone • 3320 – Intraday key support / Bottom of range • 3310 – Support • 3300 – Psychological level 📈 Intraday Strategy: • SELL if price breaks below 3346 → watch 3343, then 3336, 3332, 3325 • BUY if price holds above 3358 → target 3366, then 3370, 3377, 3384 👉 If you’d like to learn how I time my entries and place stop-losses, give this post a like — if enough people are interested, I’ll update this post to include more details soon! Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Always trade with proper risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
Gold (XAU/USD) - Elliott Wave Suggests Wave 5 Upside Starting!📊 Current Wave Count: Wave 1 (Complete): Rally from to . Wave 2 (Corrective): Pullback to (held 50%/61.8% Fib). Wave 3 (Extended): Strong impulse to . Wave 4 (Corrective): ABC pattern ending near (e.g., 38.2% Fib of Wave 3). 🎯 Wave 5 Projection: Target: Typical 0.618–1.0 extension of Wave 1-3 → $ . Invalidation: Break below Wave 4 low ($ ). 📈 Why Now? Wave 4 completed as a shallow correction (flat/triangle). MACD/RSI shows bullish divergence on lower timeframes. Fundamental drivers (e.g., Fed dovishness, inflation) align. ⚡ Trading Plan: Entry: Near current pullback (~$ ). Stop Loss: Below Wave 4 low. Take Profit: Scale out at 0.618 and 1.0 extensions.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by OsamaSalsa
1
Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout — or a Trap? 🟡 Is Gold Preparing for a Breakout — or a Trap? Let’s break down the latest market data 👇 ⸻ 🟥 1. U.S. Inflation News (PPI & Core PPI) Report Previous Forecast Actual Monthly PPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Core PPI 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 📉 Result: Very bearish for the U.S. dollar → Inflation is cooling → Fed may pause rate hikes → Interest rates could stabilize or drop → And gold loves that kind of setup 😍 ⸻ 🟫 2. U.S. Crude Oil Inventory Report Report Previous Forecast Actual Crude Oil Inventories +7.07M –1.80M –3.85M 🟢 Result: Very bullish for oil → Energy demand is higher than expected → Inflation could creep back up due to rising oil prices → That makes investors run to gold as a hedge against inflation 🔥 ⸻ 🧠 Technical & Market Outlook for XAU/USD: 📈 Gold pushed from $3,319 to $3,377 ↩️ Now it’s in a pullback, testing Fibonacci levels: • 38% retracement near $3,350 • 61% retracement near $3,339 📉 But… these pullbacks are happening with positive delta and absorption → which signals smart buying from below 👀 ✅ Additional signs: • VWAP is stable • Volume is holding around the POC • And macro data is clearly supporting upside momentum ⸻ 🎯 Trading Plan: • ✅ Entry Zones: $3,350 or $3,339 • 🛑 Stop Loss: Below $3,319 (recent low) • 🎯 TP1: $3,377 • 🎯 TP2: $3,392 – $3,400 • ⚠️ Watch for a breakout above $3,377 with strong volume — that would confirm the real move. ⸻ 🔄 Summary: 💥 Two major news events today are supporting gold: 1. Weak PPI = possible pause in rate hikes 2. Rising oil = renewed inflation risk So gold is getting support from both angles. But stay cautious — any surprise statement from the Fed or a sudden USD rally could change the game
FX:XAUUSD
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
2025 Trading Final Boss: Daily Market Manipulation, The New NormMarking this point in history because we'll likely forget and move on. During the early hours of the July 16th NYC session, we saw indices quickly flush ( CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! ) nearly 1% on the news that Trump will fire Jerome Powell. The dip was bought almost instantly. Shortly after the dip was bought (roughly 0.50% recovery), guess what? Trump announced, he is "not considering firing Jerome Powell". The dip then recovered and achieved a complete V to finish the day somewhat green. Make what you want of it but always use a stop loss in these tough conditions. Welcome to 2025 Trading Final Boss
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by kingdips
Sell Idea Overall Market Analysis ● Market Structure: The chart clearly shows that Gold is in a strong consolidation or ranging phase. It is not trending up or down but is instead oscillating between a well-defined resistance "ceiling" and a support "floor". ● Conclusion for Higher Probability: In a ranging market, the highest probability trades are to sell near resistance or buy near support. Since the current price (~$3339) is in the upper half of the range and closer to major resistance, a bearish (Sell) plan currently presents a more immediate and statistically favorable setup than a buy plan. A buy plan would require waiting for the price to drop significantly. Hypothetical Trade Plan: Bearish Range Trade This plan is based on the expectation that the established resistance level will hold and the price will rotate back down within its range. 1. Thesis / Rationale: The price has repeatedly failed to break and hold above the $3350 - $3375 zone for over a month. This indicates a strong presence of sellers at this level. The strategy is to align with these sellers, anticipating another rotation down towards the support level.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by ada7629221
Analysis of 7.17 Gold Operation: Buy High and Sell LowYesterday, the trend of gold in the first half was quite regular. The rebound in the Japanese session was under pressure, and the European session continued to fall back to test the 3320 mark. The key here has been repeatedly emphasized yesterday. The gold market in the second half was more exciting. First, the news was released that Trump was ready to draft the dismissal of the Federal Reserve Chairman. Gold directly rose by 50 US dollars and broke through the recent high of 3375. Then he said that he had no intention of dismissing the Federal Reserve Chairman. Gold rushed up and fell back by 40 US dollars. The daily line finally closed with an inverted hammer pattern with a very long upper shadow line. After the end of this pattern, today's market is still bearish. If the market is extremely weak, it will continue to fall below 3358. Pay attention to the attack and defense of the 3320 mark below. If it falls below, it will open the downward space to test the 3300 mark. During the day, we will temporarily set the small range of 3320-3358 to run, sell high and buy low, and retreat to 3325. One low long, defend yesterday's low, look up to 3335, 3342, 3358, and then reverse high.
TVC:GOLDShort
by AIan_Gold
1
Shorting NQ Yep, weakness started to creep in on NQ this time. Firstly, the higher timeframes shows massive divergence, even when whales tried to push the price high and continue the trend, massive shorts came in with massive volume. It only tells me that bears are in control this time, and they are coming in with force. So technically, iam looking for a short up until 22,858 What is really confusing is that also gold is showing weakness which is really something odd, so either iam right in my analysis for Gold and NQ or iam wrong in one of them. But we will see.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!Short
by lojjkkjvvv
1
XAU/USD 1H – Bullish Breakout in Play | Eyes on 3,400+XAU/USD has officially broken out of a falling wedge pattern, triggering a classic bullish continuation setup. The rejection off the 0.618–0.705 fib retracement zone ($3,280–$3,290) acted as a powerful launchpad, pushing price above the mid-structure confluence and EMAs. ✅ Key Technical Highlights: Structure Break: Clear bullish breakout from descending wedge + EMA crossover confirmation (20/50 over 200). Fibonacci Anchors: Price respected the golden pocket (0.618–0.705), now aiming for full fib extension targets. Targets: 🎯 TP1: 3,397 (-0.27 fib) 🎯 TP2: 3,440 (-0.618 fib / upper wedge trend-line resistance) Support Zone: 3,304 – 3,319 (0.5–0.382 fib zone), now acting as fresh demand area. RSI: Rebounding from 50 with momentum, no divergence, suggesting room for continuation. 🔔 Bullish Scenario: As long as price holds above the breakout retest zone (≈3,336), momentum favors the bulls with high probability toward 3,400+. Clean higher highs and higher lows confirm trend alignment. ⚠️ Invalidation Level: Break and close back below 3,304 would shift this from breakout to fakeout — watch for bearish pressure toward 3,280 if that occurs. 📌 Wright Way Outlook: Momentum is on the side of the bulls. With fundamentals aligned and structure broken, this setup favors precision swing entries with clean RR. Stay patient, stay tactical. Trade the Wright Way.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WrightWayInvestments
Bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci reracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit. Entry: 64.89 Why we like it: There is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 63.08 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Take profit: 69.97 Why we like it: There is an overlap resistance. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:USOUSDLong
by VantageMarkets