Futures market
XAUUSD , Bullish Setup , R:R 17Hello friends
I am back after a long time and I want to share the results of my efforts of several years with you.
Gold is starting a 5th wave of bullishness and yesterday it gave us the necessary confirmations by rejecting the previous ceiling. I have identified the best buying position for you now. With a reward to risk 17
Take advantage of this opportunity.
If you are interested in Elliott waves or work in this field at a professional level, contact me and share your analysis with me.
I hope we will all be profitable together.
Elliott Wave View: XAUUSD (Gold) Should Continue RallyElliott Wave sequence in XAUUSD (GOLD) suggest bullish view against September-2022 low in weekly. In daily, it should remain supported in 3, 7 or 11 swings to continue rally to extend higher. In daily, it ended ((4)) correction in 7 swings sequence at 3120.20 low in 5.15.2025 low against April-2025 peak. Above May-2025 low, it should continue rally targeting 3589 or higher levels, while pullback stays above 3246.55 low. In 4-hour, it placed 1 at 3452.5 low in proposed diagonal sequence. Within 1, it ended ((i)) at 3252.05 high, ((ii)) at 3245.20 low, ((iii)) at 3365.93 high, ((iv)) at 3245.20 low & finally ((v)) ended at 3452.50 high. It ended 2 in 7 swings correction at 3246.55 low in 6.29.2025. Within 2 pullback, it ended ((w)) at 3340.18 low, ((x)) at 3398.35 high & ((y)) at 3246.55 low in extreme area. It provided short term buying opportunity in extreme area, corrected 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of 1.
Above 2 low, it is showing nest in 1-hour sequence expecting further rally. It needs to break above 6.15.2025 high of 3452.5 to confirm the upside to extend daily sequence. Short term, it placed ((i)) of 3 at 3365.70 high, ((ii)) at 3282.43 low, (i) of ((iii)) at 3374.96 high & (ii) of ((iii)) at 3319.50 low. It is showing higher high since 2 low in 5 swings, which can be nest or a diagonal sequence, if breaks below 7.09.2025 low before rally higher above 6.29.2025 low. In (i), it ended i at 3330.32 high, ii at 3309.91 low, iii at 3374.02 high, iv at 3353.43 low & v at 3374.96 high. In (ii) pullback, it placed a at 3340.76 low, b at 3366.38 high & c as diagonal at 3319.50 low. It already broke above (i) high, confirmed upside can be possible as long as it stays above 3319.50 low.
Currently, it favors pullback in ii of (iii), while placed i at 3377.48 high. It expects pullback in 3 swings to hold above 3319.50 low before rally continue in iii of (iii). The further upside confirms when it breaks above 3452.50 high. Five swings rally from 6.29.2025 low, suggests more upside should be unfold. The next leg higher expects to erase the momentum divergence in 1-hour to be (iii) of ((iii)). Alternatively, if it breaks below 7.09.2025 low, it can be pullback against 6.29.2025 low, while ended ((i)) in diagonal at 3377.48 high. Gold is choppy after April-2025 peak. It can even do double correction, if breaks below 6.29.2025 low, correcting against May-2025 low before rally continue. We like to buy the pullback in 3, 7, or 11 swings pullback as it is bullish in weekly sequence.
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: July 17, 2025🔷 Market Context and Current Price
As of July 17, 2025, gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $3,341, slightly above the week’s midpoint. The metal remains range-bound but shows signs of bullish resilience as it tests key structural support zones. Today’s analysis integrates advanced technical methodologies — including Price Action, Fibonacci tools, ICT and Smart Money Concepts — to present a clear directional bias and actionable trade ideas.
📊 4‑Hour Chart Analysis
1️⃣ Price Structure & Trend
Gold has maintained a sideways-to-upward bias, consolidating between $3,320 (support base) and $3,377 (range resistance). Higher lows since early July reinforce the short-term bullish narrative, though price remains capped by supply in the upper 3,370s.
No decisive Break of Structure (BOS) has yet occurred, keeping price within this range. However, minor bullish BOS signals have appeared near $3,332–$3,334, with a confirmed Change of Character (CHOCH) around $3,320–$3,324, as buyers repeatedly defended this level.
2️⃣ Smart Money Concepts & ICT Insights
Demand Zone / Order Block (OB): $3,332–$3,334. This zone aligns with a recent fair value gap and bullish order block.
Supply Zone / OB: $3,355–$3,359, corresponding to prior inefficiencies and institutional selling.
Liquidity Levels: Sell-side liquidity was swept near $3,320 earlier this week, suggesting smart money accumulation below prior lows.
Fair Value Gap (Imbalance): Present at $3,332–$3,333, partially filled and offering a strong risk-reward for long setups.
3️⃣ Fibonacci Levels
Using the recent swing low ($3,320) and swing high ($3,377), Fibonacci retracements show:
38.2%: ~$3,342 — currently being tested.
50%: ~$3,348 — an interim bullish target.
Fibonacci extensions project potential upside toward $3,401 if momentum strengthens beyond the range top.
4️⃣ Key Levels Summary (4H)
Zone Level
Demand / Buy Zone $3,332–$3,334
Structural Support $3,320
Interim Pivot $3,340–$3,342
Supply / Sell Zone $3,355–$3,359
Range Ceiling $3,375–$3,377
🔷 Directional Bias and Strategy
The 4-hour structure remains neutral-to-bullish, favoring upside so long as the $3,332–$3,334 demand zone holds. A confirmed BOS above $3,342–$3,344 could accelerate bullish momentum toward $3,355–$3,360 and even $3,375. Conversely, a breakdown below $3,332 risks revisiting $3,320 and potentially $3,300.
⏳ 1‑Hour Chart – Intraday Trade Setups
The 1-hour timeframe reveals tactical opportunities aligned with the broader bias:
Setup Direction Entry Stop Loss Take Profit
Setup A – Smart Money Long Long $3,334 $3,329 $3,348 / $3,355
Setup B – Breakout Long Long $3,344 (after breakout) $3,340 $3,355 / $3,375
Setup C – Range Short Short $3,355–$3,359 $3,362 $3,340 / $3,332
🏆 The Golden Setup
Setup A – Smart Money Long offers the highest statistical edge:
Entry: $3,334 (at demand OB / FVG)
Stop Loss: $3,329 (below structure)
Take Profits:
TP1: $3,348 (pivot)
TP2: $3,355 (supply zone)
R:R Ratio: ~2.8:1
This setup benefits from multi-timeframe confluences: demand zone, fair value gap, bullish CHOCH, and proximity to BOS, making it a high‑conviction trade.
🔷 External Consensus Check
An alignment scan of professional analyst views shows strong consensus:
Buy interest remains concentrated around $3,332–$3,335.
Profit-taking and caution advised as price approaches $3,355–$3,377.
No notable divergence in professional outlook — most remain cautiously bullish above $3,332.
📜 Summary Report
✅ Bias: Neutral-to-bullish above $3,332; downside risk below.
✅ Key Levels: $3,332–$3,334 (buy zone), $3,355–$3,359 (sell zone), $3,375–$3,377 (range ceiling).
✅ Top Trade: Long from $3,334 with stops under $3,329 and targets at $3,348/$3,355.
✅ Alternate Trades: Breakout long above $3,344 or short from supply near $3,355.
✅ Confidence Zones: Buyers dominate above $3,332; sellers reappear above $3,355.
Conclusion
Gold remains in a well‑defined range, with smart money likely accumulating near the lower boundary at $3,332. With structural supports intact and demand zones respected, the path of least resistance favors cautious upside toward $3,355 and possibly $3,375. Intraday traders are advised to focus on precise execution within the outlined confidence zones, maintaining discipline around stops and targets.
The current market structure rewards patience and alignment with institutional footprints — positioning ahead of breakout confirmation, while respecting range extremes.
WTI(20250717)Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The annual rate of PPI in the United States in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, and the previous value was revised up from 2.6% to 2.7%. Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, and corporate recruitment remained cautious.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
65.20
Support and resistance levels:
66.59
66.07
65.74
64.67
64.33
63.83
Trading strategy:
If it breaks through 65.74, consider buying in, and the first target price is 66.07
If it breaks through 65.20, consider selling in, and the first target price is 64.67
XAU/USD(20250717) Today's AnalysisMarket news:
The annual rate of PPI in the United States in June was 2.3%, lower than the expected 2.5%, the lowest since September 2024, and the previous value was revised up from 2.6% to 2.7%. Federal Reserve Beige Book: The economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic. Manufacturing activity declined slightly, and corporate recruitment remained cautious.
Technical analysis:
Today's buying and selling boundaries:
3348.05
Support and resistance levels:
3405
3383
3369
3326
3312
3290
Trading strategy:
If the rise breaks through 3348, consider entering the market to buy, the first target price is 3369
If the fall breaks through 3326, consider entering the market to sell, the first target price is 3312
TACO trading reappears. Gold is down.The news that Trump intends to fire Powell caused a decline in US stocks and bonds, and gold prices soared in response. But then Trump denied the news, and the market subsequently fell back to stabilize.
On Wednesday, the Asian market began to fluctuate and rise in the early trading. It rose to a high of 3343 in the European market and then fell to 3319 in the US market. Then it rose sharply due to the news. It rose to a high of 3377 and then fell to 3336. It fluctuated around 3350 in the late trading. The daily line closed with a positive line with an upper shadow line.
The recent market trend fluctuated violently. Since last Wednesday, there have been three consecutive positive rises. This week, there have been two consecutive negative declines on Monday and Tuesday. On Wednesday, it closed positive after washing up and down. At present, the MA5 and 10-day moving averages have formed a golden cross, but the direction is unclear. The Asian market opened above the moving average on Thursday. The overall pattern needs to pay attention to the breakthrough of the key points of long and short positions.
Today, the focus below is on the support near the low point of 3320, followed by the support near 3315 and 3310. This position is the trend line support formed by the previous low point connection. If it breaks down, we need to pay attention to the position of 3280. The upper resistance level is mainly concerned with the resistance near 3355, which is the rebound high point after the US market hit 3377.
Today, the operation needs to adjust the strategy according to the breakthrough of key points. In the volatile market, we need to be vigilant about the sudden fluctuations caused by the news. After breaking the key support or resistance, the trend direction may be further clarified.
XAU/USD 1H – Bullish Breakout in Play | Eyes on 3,400+XAU/USD has officially broken out of a falling wedge pattern, triggering a classic bullish continuation setup. The rejection off the 0.618–0.705 fib retracement zone ($3,280–$3,290) acted as a powerful launchpad, pushing price above the mid-structure confluence and EMAs.
✅ Key Technical Highlights:
Structure Break: Clear bullish breakout from descending wedge + EMA crossover confirmation (20/50 over 200).
Fibonacci Anchors: Price respected the golden pocket (0.618–0.705), now aiming for full fib extension targets.
Targets:
🎯 TP1: 3,397 (-0.27 fib)
🎯 TP2: 3,440 (-0.618 fib / upper wedge trend-line resistance)
Support Zone: 3,304 – 3,319 (0.5–0.382 fib zone), now acting as fresh demand area.
RSI: Rebounding from 50 with momentum, no divergence, suggesting room for continuation.
🔔 Bullish Scenario:
As long as price holds above the breakout retest zone (≈3,336), momentum favors the bulls with high probability toward 3,400+. Clean higher highs and higher lows confirm trend alignment.
⚠️ Invalidation Level:
Break and close back below 3,304 would shift this from breakout to fakeout — watch for bearish pressure toward 3,280 if that occurs.
📌 Wright Way Outlook:
Momentum is on the side of the bulls. With fundamentals aligned and structure broken, this setup favors precision swing entries with clean RR.
Stay patient, stay tactical. Trade the Wright Way.
xauusd – is gold coiling up for a breakout?After multiple retests of the ascending trendline since March, gold (XAUUSD) continues to hold a solid bullish structure. While it hasn’t decisively broken through the 3,366 resistance, price action suggests that buyers are still in control. The repeated appearance of FVG zones signals smart money accumulation beneath the surface.
On the news front, U.S. PPI data came in at a 0.2% increase — exactly in line with expectations. This neutral result hasn’t given the USD a strong push, which may allow gold to maintain or even inch higher in the short term.
As long as the 3,265 support zone holds, the path remains open for a move toward the 3,449 target area. This might be the final consolidation before a powerful breakout. The question is: are you ready to ride the next leg up?
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 17th July 2024)Bias: Buliish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Core Retail Sales m/m
-Retail Sales m/m
-Unemployment Claims
Notes:
- Take note on the war news
- Looking for price to retest 0.382 fib levl
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3300
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Bullish Consolidation After the copper market exploded higher on the Trump Administration’s 50% tariff headline, the market has been quietly consolidating above the breakout level at 5.33. While above this level the risk is higher, and in case of a break back below the 5.30 level, the risk would be a larger retracement. This would likely be caused by the Trump Administration abandoning that threat of a 50% tariff.
Gold short Read this clearly, my confidence in this trade is 3 out of 10.
Use very small size on this trade, as iam not sure at all that this is even the right thing to do.
The chart is messy, and there is consolidation is going on.
if the price didnt make it to nr 1 circle, dont worry about it. The most important thing is the close below the FVG.
Also confirm on lower time frame to see how the price reacts to the entry levels. If anything is going to happen, is going to happen at those levels.
Gold to enter long Trade with care ….
Gold will be bullish soon
Trade Metrics
Risk = 3,310 - 3,290 = 20 points
Reward = 3,400 - 3,310 = 90 points
Risk:Reward Ratio (RRR) = 90 / 20 = 4.5 : 1 ✅✅✅
If you're already in the trade:
Watch for bullish continuation and possible break of consolidation range.
Consider trailing stop once price crosses 3,360–3,370 for better protection.
If you're considering entry:
Either:
Wait for confirmation candle or bullish breakout from current range
Or, adjust stop-loss tighter or target higher to improve RRR
GOLD 2H STRUCTURE ROADMAP – JULY 2025🧭 GOLD 2H STRUCTURE ROADMAP – JULY 2025
📉 Market Structure | 📊 Liquidity Zones | 🎯 Bearish Scenario
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📌 🧱 Structure Analysis – Bigger Picture
The current macro structure on Gold is clearly bearish, confirmed by:
A sequence of Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL)
Price respecting a descending channel / wedge structure
Failure to hold above key break-of-structure (BOS) zones on prior rallies
Recent rallies forming corrective patterns, not impulsive bullish structure
This indicates that smart money is distributing at higher levels and planning liquidity raids before final markdowns.
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🔁 Wedge + ABC Trap Formation
The chart shows a classic bearish wedge (rising contraction pattern) with an embedded ABC correction, which can trap long-biased retail traders before reversal.
Wave (A): Short-term rejection at previous minor high
Wave (B): Shallow pullback to create illusion of strength
Wave (C): Final liquidity sweep above the wedge → Perfect trap zone
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💧 Triple Liquidity Targets – Smart Money Blueprint
Smart money often targets liquidity in layers. Below are the three major zones:
1. 🔻 First Liquidity Pool (~$3,320 – $3,310):
Minor internal structure lows with previous BOS area
2. 🔻 Second Pool (~$3,285 – $3,275):
Strong liquidity cluster near order block formed after impulsive move
3. 🔻 Final Demand Zone (~$3,245 – $3,260):
Deep liquidity + unmitigated bullish OB = High Probability Reaction Zone
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⚔️ Bias & Trading Insight
✅ Bias: Bearish unless price closes above $3,400 with strength
🚫 Avoid chasing longs during (B)-(C) unless clear breakout + volume
🧠 Patience pays — Wait for sweep of all three zones before any long-term bullish commitment
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> 🧠 Precision Analysis by: Mohsen Mozafarinezhad
👑 Presented under: PERSIAUX KING — A Legacy of Persian Discipline in Markets
Gold Intraday Trading Plan 7/17/2025Yesterday I thought gold could drop to at least 3300. However, it seems to me the recent drop is just a correction. After dropping to 3320, it quickly went up and touched resistance of 3373. I am switching my view to bullish this week. I will look for buying opportunity from 3343, targeting 3373 today.
Gold Just Broke Structure – Are You Ready for the Next Move?Today’s price action on Gold presented a textbook structure shift:
Break of Structure occurred after price respected the Demand Zone around the 3,315–3,320 region, showing strong buying interest and a volume spike confirming bullish intent.
Price surged past the key resistance near 3,340, breaking above the 200 SMA and reclaiming a prior consolidation zone. This move invalidated recent bearish pressure and confirmed a bullish reversal.
Supply Zone around 3,370 has been retested with rejection, causing a minor pullback. Price is now consolidating in a bullish flag pattern just above the 200 SMA, suggesting a potential continuation.
Outlook: If price holds above the gray demand/flip zone and breaks out of the flag, we could see continuation toward the supply zone highs. RSI remains neutral, giving room for momentum to build.
This is a clean example of structure-driven trading combined with zone analysis and volume confirmation.
Follow @GoldenZoneFX for more content and valuable insights.
7/17: Key Support for Gold Bulls at 3343–3337During the Asian session today, gold rose as expected into the 3337–3343 resistance zone. After failing to break through, the price retraced during the European and U.S. sessions, reaching the 3323–3313 support area. A sharp rally followed due to unexpected news, pushing the price into the 3372–3378 resistance zone. Overall, the intraday bullish strategy performed well, yielding solid profits.
After this sharp volatility, price movement has stabilized somewhat. The MA60 support on the daily chart remains intact.
For tomorrow’s trading, key levels to watch are:
🔽 Support: 3343–3337, with secondary support at 3328–3323
🔼 Resistance: 3372–3378
On the 2-hour chart, bullish momentum appears likely to continue as long as price holds above the support zone.
Additionally, upcoming economic data releases and any further developments on the report regarding Trump potentially firing Powell could have a significant impact on market sentiment—these factors should be closely monitored.
In summary, tomorrow’s initial trading focus can remain within the 3337–3358 range, with strategies adjusted as market conditions evolve.