Futures market
XAUSD - Using HOW levels for a break and retest!Identify what signal a market is showing you.
TYPES IOF SIGNAL DAYS
- First red/green day
- Dump/Pump
- Inside day
Frame the Trade play
- Reversal
- Continuation
Identify the Levels
- HOW/LOW
- Session High/LOW
- Friday Closing Price.
Trade Explanation
On the previous week FOREXCOM:XAUUSD triggered 3 days of breakout traders into the market closing in breakout. On Monday we have a FRD signal that sets up a next day trade opportunity. A retest of a previous weeks high gave us an indication of a retest/reversal trade on day 3 below Fridays closing price. Into the NY session this market quickly displaced back to Friday day 1 LOD level. Going into Tuesday day 2 we had the test of a weekly level and reversal above a session high closing below the Friday closing price. The break of a previous weeks high triggered more breakout traders into the market however it failed. We know day 2 typicall expands the range on Monday for a great parabolic trade setup right to as previous days low.
NO GUESSING, NO FOMO, NO FEAR, NO STRESS!
- Friday Closing Price (Entry)
- Previous HOW (Stop)
- PDL (Target)
Bullish bounce?USO/USD is falling towards the support level which is an overlap support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci reracement and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 64.89
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 63.08
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support.
Take profit: 69.97
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance.
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Gold Rises Again Above $3,300Today's session marked a new upward move for gold, with gains of more than 1%, pushing prices above the key $3,300 per ounce level. For now, the bullish bias has remained firm shortly after reports suggested that the U.S. government may be preparing to move away from the current Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, mainly due to the Fed’s failure to deliver on the administration's broader expectation of cutting interest rates in the short term. This development has increased political risk in the United States and has led gold to act once again as a safe-haven asset in the short term.
Sideways Range Remains Active
Despite the recent rebound in gold prices, a consolidated sideways range continues to dominate, with resistance marked around the $3,400 level and support near $3,200 per ounce. Although recent fluctuations have not yet been enough to break out of the channel, they have shown a steady increase in buying pressure that, if sustained, could lead gold to retest its recent highs.
Indicators Still Show Neutral Bias
At the moment, the RSI indicator remains close to the neutral line of 50, and the TRIX indicator is also moving sideways near the zero level. Both signals suggest that recent price momentum and the average strength in moving averages are starting to stabilize, pointing to a lack of clear direction. Unless the indicators begin to show signs of a momentum shift, the sideways channel is likely to remain in place and could serve as a key catalyst for maintaining the market’s neutral sentiment in the near term.
Key Levels to Watch:
$3,400 – This remains the level of historic highs in gold. A breakout above this area could reactivate a strong bullish bias, potentially paving the way for a more sustained uptrend in the short term.
$3,300 – This is the current barrier, aligned with the 50-period simple moving average, and may serve as an important pivot point. If price action stays above this level, buying pressure could begin to gain more traction in the gold market in the short term.
$3,200 – This remains a key support level, acting as the most critical reference point for selling activity in recent weeks. A move back toward this level could trigger the start of a new bearish trend.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
17/7/25 Retest Jul 14 High or Weak Follow-through Buying?
Wednesday’s candlestick (Jul 16) was an inside bull bar closing near its high.
In our last report, we stated that traders would observe whether the bears could create a follow-through bear bar, even if it were just a bear doji, or if the market would trade higher to retest the July 14 high. If this is the case, it will indicate the bears are not yet strong.
The market is forming a retest of the July 14 high, currently a lower high.
Recently, the bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 14) and a measured move to around the 4250 area.
They see the current move as a pullback and want a retest of the July 14 high, followed by a breakout above the bar trend line.
The bulls need to create more follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a reversal from a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 14). They want a major lower high vs the April high.
They hope the bear trend line will act as resistance.
They see the current move as a retest of the July 14 high and want it to form a lower high.
The bears were not able to create follow-through selling today (Wednesday), which indicates they are not yet as strong as they hope to be.
They must create strong bear bars to show they are back in control.
Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
Refineries' appetite to buy looks decent recently. Slightly quieter on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Export: Down 6% in the first 15 days.
So far, the market has traded sideways in the last 7 trading days around the bear trend line area.
Wednesday was an inside bar, which means the market is in breakout mode. The bulls want a breakout above, while the bears want a breakout below the inside bar. The first breakout can fail 50% of the time.
For now, traders will see if the bulls can create follow-through buying to retest the July 14 high, or if the market continues to trade sideways within the small trading range.
For tomorrow (Thursday, Jul 17), traders will see if the bulls can create a follow-through bull bar testing the July 14 high.
Or will the market form a lower high (versus July 14) and be followed by some selling pressure instead?
Andrew
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Entry (📈): "The vault is open! Swipe bullish loot at any price!"
Pro Tip: Use buy limits near 15M/30M swing lows for safer pullback entries.
Advanced Thief Move: Layer multiple DCA limit orders for maximum stealth.
Stop Loss (🛑): 36.900 (Nearest 1H candle body swing low). Adjust based on your risk tolerance & lot size!
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Current XAUUSD TradeDate: July 16, 2025
Platform: TradingView (Demo Account)
Timeframe: 15M (Entry), 4H (Bias/Context)
Direction: Long
Status: Entry zone identified, waiting for confirmation
Strategy Type: POI Re-entry after BOS (Break of Structure)
⸻
🔍 Market Context
• On the 4H, bullish BMS is confirmed after sweeping sell-side liquidity.
• Price has aggressively moved upward, showing intent to continue bullish.
• 15M structure now shows break of previous SND zone, shifting lower-timeframe flow to bullish.
• POI zone identified — price likely to return here for a mitigation tap before full continuation.
⸻
🧠 Trade Rationale
• POI marked as a mitigation zone for re-entry after BOS on 15M.
• Confirmation will be valid only after price closes above the wick (shows strength).
• Expecting return to POI to mitigate imbalance or unfilled orders.
⸻
📍 Entry Criteria
• POI zone: between ~3,327 and 3,316
• Watch for:
• Bullish SFP (swing failure pattern)
• Bullish engulfing candle
• 15M BOS + higher low confirmation inside POI
• Entry trigger: Price must close above the wick, then return to POI with bullish reaction
⸻
🧾 Management Plan
• Stop Loss: Below POI (~3,316 or slightly lower)
• Take Profit: 3,492 (upper 4H imbalance zone)
• Trail stop based on 15M structure if price accelerates
⸻
😌 Emotional Reflection
Comfortable identifying refined entry after HTF structure shift. No FOMO — POI must react cleanly and respect my conditions.
⸻
✅ Reflection Questions
• Did I wait for the proper 15M BOS before marking my POI?
• Did I define my confirmation model clearly?
• Will I enter only if the wick is closed above and POI is respected?
Potential buys?Trade Journal Entry – XAUUSD (Gold Spot)
Date: July 16, 2025
Platform: TradingView (Demo Account)
Timeframe: 4H
Direction: Long
Status: Active, In Profit
Unrealized Profit: +301.54 GBP
Entry: ~3,327
Stop Loss: Below 3,316 zone
Take Profit (TP): ~3,492
Risk:Reward Estimate: ~1:4 or better
Market Context
Previous pullback into the sell-side liquidity and POI zone held firmly.
Price rejected from POI and aggressively moved upward, confirming bullish order flow.
POI (Point of Interest) is marked intentionally — awaiting a return to the zone after price closes above the wick.
A full buy confirmation is expected only upon a bullish close above the wick, followed by a retest into the POI.
Trade Logic
Trade was initiated based on:
- Break of market structure (BMS)
- Sweep of sell-side liquidity
- Bullish intent shown via momentum candles
- Expectation: price returns to POI after wick close for full confirmation
Management Plan
- Consider partial TP at 3,365–3,375 zone.
- Trail SL below latest higher low on lower TF.
- Wait for price to revisit POI after close above wick before scaling in full size.
Emotional Reflection
Feeling composed. The trade plan is well-structured with a POI-based confirmation strategy. No rush to fully size until POI is respected post-wick close.
Reflection Questions
- Did I stick to my POI confirmation logic?
- Am I patient enough to wait for a close above the wick?
- Is my entry risk properly managed while awaiting confirmation?
Gold Trap at 3,377 | XAUMO Thursday Setup💥🔥 Let’s Crush the Market – Updated Zones for Thursday & Friday, July 17–18, 2025
Based on the latest explosive move to 3,377.25 followed by a sharp rejection.
🔥 Current Market Status – XAUUSD
Gold made a violent breakout to the upside, reaching 3,377.25 and triggering a massive wave of stop orders above.
Then it snapped back quickly, confirming this was likely a distribution trap, not a clean breakout.
⸻
🎯 Updated Zones Based on Price Action & Volume Profile
⸻
🟢 Support / Demand Zones (Buy Zones)
Zone Reason
3,334.00 – 3,330.00 POC + clear buyer defense + strong rejection in volume
3,324.70 – 3,319.69 Strong demand + last visible accumulation wick
3,313.00 – 3,308.00 VAL + base of a long trap zone
3,288.87 – 3,282.58 Classic stop hunt zone – last defense before trend reversal
⸻
🔴 Resistance / Distribution Zones (Sell Zones)
Zone Reason
3,360.90 – 3,365.99 Initial supply zone after breakout – partial distribution occurred
3,372.36 – 3,377.25 Fake top / clear sell-side stop hunt – do not buy here
3,386.01 – 3,400.84 Expansion targets – only valid if price confirms breakout above 3,377
⸻
📉 Base Trading Plan for Thursday & Friday:
⸻
✳️ Scenario 1: Failed Breakout (Bearish Reversal)
• 🔻 If price remains below 3,355 – 3,350
• ✳️ Bearish targets: 3,334 > 3,319 > 3,308
• 📌 Confirmation = H1 candles close below 3,334 with negative delta
⸻
✅ Scenario 2: Breakout Confirmation (Not a Trap)
• ✅ Need 4H candle close above 3,377.25
• 📈 Bullish targets: 3,386 > 3,400 > 3,408
• ✳️ Must have: Positive delta + rising volume on each new high
⸻
📍 Expected Stop Hunt Zones
Direction Trap Level Notes
🔻 Downside 3,319.00 – 3,313.00 Fast wicks without volume = Buy trap zone
🔺 Upside 3,377.25 – 3,386.00 Breakout without strong candles = distribution, not real breakout
⸻
💎 “Scalper’s Gold” Trade for Thursday
✅ Buy Setup
• Entry: 3,330.12
• Stop Loss: 3,319.00
• TP1: 3,350.00
• TP2: 3,365.00
• Confidence: 🔥 85%
⸻
❌ Sell Setup (If Price Reverses Above)
• Entry: 3,377.00
• Stop Loss: 3,384.00
• TP1: 3,355.00
• TP2: 3,334.00
• Confidence: 🧠 65%
⸻
“If you’re buying after the breakout, you’re buying from those who loaded up at the bottom and are selling to you at the top…
Be the one accumulating, not the one getting dumped on.”
Falling correction, shorting in European session📰 News information:
1. Beige Book of Federal Reserve's economic situation
2. European and American tariff trade negotiations
📈 Technical Analysis:
Currently, gold continues to consolidate around 3340, and the daily MACD indicator is stuck to the zero axis. Two consecutive days of negative bars also indicate that the overall trend of gold is weak and volatile. The hourly Bollinger Bands are closing, with the upper band located near 3352. The corresponding positions of the upper pressure middle band and SMA60 are basically at 3335-3350, but it is expected to gradually decline over time. On the whole, there are no particularly clear trading signals at present. Both bulls and bears have certain opportunities. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being. Pay attention to the 3342-3352 area above. If the bearish trend is confirmed in the future, you can consider shorting when it rebounds here, with the target at 3330-3325. If gold retreats directly to 3325-3320 and gains effective support again, you can consider going long.
🎯 Trading Points:
SELL 3342-3352
TP 3330-3325
BUY 3325-3320
TP 3340-3350
In addition to investment, life also includes poetry, distant places, and Allen. Facing the market is actually facing yourself, correcting your shortcomings, facing your mistakes, and exercising strict self-discipline. I share free trading strategies and analysis ideas every day for reference by brothers. I hope my analysis can help you.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
Liquidity Sweep & Discount Entry Zone - Gold Swing Play Gold is targeting an external liquidity zone around 3,450 after breaking structure and forming a bullish setup. Price is expected to dip into the discount zone near 3,300 to collect liquidity from trendline stops before a strong move upward. Smart money is likely hunting below prior lows before initiating the next bullish leg.
Retracement for cooldownBased on the spike leaving some long wick from 1 hour timeframe, there is a possibilities for it to retrace back for cooldown period before going up. My calculations lead to 3335 as a support level.
Sell - Take profit on 3335. Believe me, I am from the broken future. Just kidding.
XAGUSD(SILVER):To $60 the silver is new gold, most undervaluedSilver has shown remarkable bullish behaviour and momentum, in contrast to gold’s recent decline. Despite recent news, silver remains bullish and unaffected by these developments. We anticipate that silver will reach a record high by the end of the year, potentially reaching $60.
There are compelling reasons why we believe silver will be more valuable in the coming years, if not months. Firstly, the current price of silver at 36.04 makes it the most cost-effective investment option compared to gold. This presents an attractive opportunity for retail traders, as gold may not be suitable for everyone due to its nature and price.
Silver’s price has increased from 28.47 to 36.25, indicating its potential to reach $60 in the near future. We strongly recommend conducting your own analysis before making any trading or investment decisions. Please note that this analysis is solely our opinion and does not guarantee the price or future prospects of silver.
We appreciate your positive feedback and comments, which encourage us to provide further analysis. Your continuous support over the years means a lot to us.
We wish you a pleasant weekend.
Best regards,
Team Setupsfx
#XAUUSD(GOLD): Strong Sellers Hold, Further Drop Incoming! God dropped from our area of entry yesterday as we initially expected. However, since the massive drop, we are now seeing some short-term correction in the prices. In the coming time, we can expect further price drops around 3280 or 3250.
If you like our idea, please like and comment.
Team Setupsfx_
Why says they want to short gold again, line up in hereLol, so far whales keeps manipulating the price to stop me out 🙄.
Nah, fr, i will short gold again today for sure, iam just waiting to see a confirmation that this is even the right decision.
But so far it looks massively short, it could yield anything from 1:3, or 1:4. Depends on the setup.
Wait for confirmation, will make sure that whales dont get me this time. LOL
Coffee smells goodAnother day, another breakout trade. I went long at the 0.5 retracement, we’ve had a nice reaction so far. Stop loss under the 0.5 Fibonacci. I expect coffee to reach a new high. There’s plenty of commodities that look strong vs the dollar, coffee has lagged for weeks now but if you zoom out there’s signs we can put in a new high.
Not financial advice. Do what’s best for you.
Shorting NQ Yep, weakness started to creep in on NQ this time.
Firstly, the higher timeframes shows massive divergence, even when whales tried to push the price high and continue the trend, massive shorts came in with massive volume. It only tells me that bears are in control this time, and they are coming in with force.
So technically, iam looking for a short up until 22,858
What is really confusing is that also gold is showing weakness which is really something odd, so either iam right in my analysis for Gold and NQ or iam wrong in one of them.
But we will see.
3325–3315: Potential Bullish Reversal ZoneGold maintained a volatile trend today, but the highest intraday price only touched 3343. Overall, gold is still weak, but the bulls have not completely given up, and there is still a certain amount of energy, which limits the retracement space of gold. The current short-term support is in the 3325-3315 area. If gold cannot fall below this area in such a weak situation, the market may reach a consensus that 3325-3315 is the support area, thereby attracting a large amount of buying funds to flow into the gold market, thereby boosting gold to regain the bullish trend again and is expected to hit the 3350-3360 area.
So for short-term trading, I currently prefer to start long gold with the 3325-3315 area as support, first expecting gold to recover some of its lost ground and return to the 3350-3360 area!
Gold - BUYS and SELL - did you make money with us?🟩 TRADE RECAP: GOLD (XAUUSD) — ELFIEDT RSI + REVERSION
Timeframe: 15-minute
Indicator Used: ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion
Date: July 15–16
Market: Gold (XAUUSD)
⸻
🟢 TRADE 1 – LONG SETUP (“UP” Signal)
📍 Location: Left side of chart (July 15, ~18:00)
🟢 Label: “UP”
🟦 Blue Entry Box: Bullish Reversion Zone
🟥 Red SL Box: Risk-defined stop zone below the signal bar
✅ Why This Trade Was Taken:
• 📉 Price sharply sold off into extreme oversold conditions.
• 📊 RSI with Standard Deviation Reversion: The RSI value pierced below the 3-standard-deviation envelope, triggering a BUY signal.
• 🟢 “UP” label was automatically printed by the ELFIEDT indicator.
• 🧠 System confirms that price is statistically stretched below mean, ideal for mean-reversion trades.
• 📈 Entry was executed immediately at the close of the signal bar.
• 🛡️ Stop loss was placed below the signal bar’s low, as per system rules.
🎯 Outcome:
• Price reversed strongly back toward the mean.
• Trade moved cleanly in favor, validating the signal and model.
⸻
🔴 TRADE 2 – SHORT SETUP (“DOWN” Signal)
📍 Location: Right side of chart (July 16, ~18:00)
🔴 Label: “DOWN”
🟦 Blue Entry Box: Bearish Reversion Zone
🟥 Red SL Box: Risk-defined stop zone above signal bar
✅ Why This Trade Was Taken:
• 📈 Sharp bullish spike pushed price far above equilibrium.
• 📊 RSI exceeded the upper 3-standard-deviation threshold, triggering a SELL signal.
• 🔴 “DOWN” label appeared based on confluence of overbought + RSI reversal structure.
• 📉 The bearish candle close confirmed exhaustion at the top.
• 📍 Entry was taken at the close of the “DOWN” signal bar.
• 🛡️ Stop was placed above the high of the trigger bar, per indicator rules.
🎯 Outcome:
• Price quickly rejected the highs and dropped into profit territory.
• Tight structure with clean entry allowed favorable risk:reward.
⸻
🔍 About the Indicator: ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion
This system is built on the principle that price tends to revert to its mean when it becomes statistically stretched — confirmed by:
• ✅ RSI divergence
• ✅ Break of trendlines
• ✅ Reversion from extreme zones using a 3 SD envelope
• ✅ Directional confirmations from candle structure and session timing
📊 Signals include:
• 📍 “UP” and “DOWN” trade labels
• 📦 Entry and SL box overlays
• 🎨 Candle color overlays based on 50MA and RSI alignment
• 🔔 Alerts at signal bar close (non-repainting
📸 Visual Recap:
🔹 The chart shows:
• ✅ Clear visual entries with SL and TP zones
• ✅ “UP” and “DOWN” labels for intuitive guidance
• ✅ No repainting – signals locked at close
Gold: Bull-Bear Swings & Today's Trade Tips + AnalysisAnalysis of Gold News Drivers:
During the U.S. session on Wednesday (July 16th), spot gold surged sharply and is currently trading around 3,370 🚀. Trump stated that tariff letters will soon be sent to small countries, with rates likely slightly above 10%, providing safe-haven support for gold prices 🛡️.
Gold prices fell 0.5% on Tuesday, closing at 3,324.68, barely holding above the 55-day moving average of 3,222 📉. Earlier, the U.S. June CPI increase hit its highest level since January, pushing the U.S. dollar index to a nearly three-week high, while U.S. Treasury yields also climbed to a six-week peak, pressuring gold prices ⚖️. The dollar index has risen for four consecutive trading days, hitting a high of 98.70 on Tuesday, the highest since June 23rd 🆙. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated gold more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thereby weighing on gold prices 💸.
However, the market largely interprets the dollar's recent rally as a technical adjustment rather than a reversal of the long-term trend 🔄. Despite short-term pullbacks in gold prices, market sentiment has not fully turned pessimistic 😐. While gold is currently in a consolidation range since mid-May, uncertainties surrounding tariff policies may offer support 🔀. Overall, the long-term outlook for gold remains optimistic, with sustained market focus on tariff issues expected to drive a rebound in gold prices in the future 📈
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
Expecting Gold bullish Movement Gold (XAU/USD) has exhibited a strong bullish reversal from the key support zone near 3325 marked by the red area on the chart The price formed a series of higher lows indicating bullish momentum buildup before breaking out sharply above the descending channel and resistance zone around 3340
Following this breakout, the market is now consolidating above the broken resistance, which is acting as new support signaling a potential continuation of the upward trend
Key Levels
Target 1 3365 3370 grey resistance zone
Target 2 3385 3390 major resistance zone
If price holds above the support at 3340 and continues forming higher lows, we expect bullish continuation toward Target 1 and eventually Target 2 if momentum sustains Traders should monitor price action closely at each target zone for potential reactions or reversals
NQ Short (07-16-25)NAZ again can't hold on the Monday off session pump during the Reg Session and does hit lower zone of 22,920. Next trick is Gov't controlled news (released in off session of course) should that not lift it then KL's 881-780 may be next.
The NAZ will go lower under 780 and will be a Strong Short under 22,700. The issue is with getting past the off session propping/rigging (up). Circles to the left are drop target zones that are likely to be revisited as ultimately the NAZ goes sideways in a larger range. The current 14 day sideways moves feels like an Long Mop up or Long Trap. The NAZ will need Tweets, O/N Prop moves and Dead Zone magic lifting to stay away from the Danger Zone of sell orders near 22,881-780.