XAUUSD Technical And Fundamental AnalysisGold prices rise in early trade as fears of a global economic slowdown due to widening trade tensions reinforce the precious metal's role as a defensive hedge and safe-haven asset. Futures are up 0.5% to $3,382.70 a troy ounce, their highest level in three weeks, after President Trump said he will charge a 30% tariff on goods from the EU and Mexico--two of the U.S.'s largest trading partners. Meanwhile, investors await key U.S. economic data later this week, including CPI inflation figures. "Should the June data report higher-than-expected inflation, this could prompt a selloff in U.S. Treasuries and increase demand for the U.S. dollar this week," says Aaron Hill, chief analyst at FP Market.
Futures market
XAUUSD WAS GOES TO DOWN TREND "I follow structure, not emotions.
The trend is bearish — I sell strength, not weakness.
My entry is smart, at a lower high or CHoCH retest.
My SL is tight — just above the invalidation point.
My TP is clear — near the next demand or previous low.
I don’t hope. I manage risk and trust my edge."
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📉 Suggested Setup Based on This Chart:
(Use this only as example — always confirm with your own strategy.)
Entry: Near the most recent CHoCH retest or rejection wick at LH (around 3,360–3,365 zone)
Stop-Loss (SL): Just above the previous LH or supply zone (around 3,375)
Take-Profit (TP): Near next support / previous LL zone (around 3,305 or even 3,248)
Risk-Reward (RR): Target at least 2:5
16/7/25 Can Bears Create A Follow-through Bear Bar?
Tuesday’s candlestick (Jul 15) was a big bear bar closing in its lower half with a prominent tail below.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bulls could create a strong breakout above the bear trend line, or if the market would trade sideways and stall around the bear trend line area (4250-70) in the next few days instead.
The market stalled at the bear trend line and reversed lower, closing below Monday's low.
The bulls got another leg up to form the wedge pattern (Jul 3, Jul 9, and Jul 14).
They want a measured move based on the first leg up (July 1 to July 3), which will take the market to around the 4260 area.
So far, the market is forming a pullback following the wedge pattern at the measured move area.
They see Tuesday as a pullback and want it to have weak follow-through selling. They want a retest of the July 14 high.
The bulls need to create a strong breakout above the bear trend line with follow-through buying to increase the odds of a sustained move.
The bears want a higher high major trend reversal and a large wedge pattern (May 15, Jun 20, and Jul 14). They want a major lower high vs the April high.
They hope the bear trend line will act as resistance. So far, this is the case.
The next target for the bears is the 20-day EMA.
They must create follow-through selling to show they are back in control.
Production for July is expected to be around the same level as June or slightly higher.
Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent recently. A bit quiet on Tuesday.
Export: Down 6% in the first 15 days.
So far, the market could be forming a pullback following the wedge pattern.
For now, traders will see if the bears can create follow-through selling. Or will they fail to do so again, as they did on July 7 or July 11?
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jul 16), traders will see if the bears can create a follow-through bear bar, even if it is just a bear doji.
Or will the market trade higher to retest the July 14 high instead? If this is the case, it will indicate the bears are not yet strong.
Andrew
CRUDE OIL Bearish Flag Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is trading in a local
Downtrend and formed a bearish
Flag pattern and now we are
Seeing a bearish breakout
So we are bearish biased
And we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
Sell!
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XAUUSD H1 ANALYSISGold price sticks to modest intraday gains around the $3,360 region heading into the European session and remains close to a three-week high touched the previous day. The US Dollar eases from a multi-week top amid some repositioning trade ahead of the crucial US consumer inflation figures, which is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the commodity.
SILVER Support Ahead! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
SILVER is going down now
But the price is trading in a
Long-term uptrend so we are
Bullish biased and after the
Price retests of the horizontal
Support support below
Around 37.20$ we will be
Expecting a bullish rebound
Buy!
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Bearish Continuation Idea on XAU/USDTimeframe: 1H
Session Context: Currently in New York, with London having just closed. Liquidity sweeps from London/NY overlapping zone are in play.
Step 1: Indication
HTF structure broke bullish to bearish with a clear break below a HTF Higher Low (HL) around 3,343–3,345.
This confirms Indication of bearish intent as market structure shifted from bullish → bearish.
The recent Swing High (3,368) was followed by strong selling momentum, showing institutional interest near previous liquidity pools.
Step 2: Correction
Price has retraced to test minor demand around the previous HL zone (green box).
Expecting liquidity collection above this area to trap late buyers and induce sellers.
The market is currently in Correction—a necessary pause after the break in structure to rebalance orders before continuation.
Step 3: Continuation Projection
If price respects the 3,343–3,345 correction zone and fails to reclaim the HTF HL:
Expect a lower high to form.
Entry would be ideal on a 5M–15M confirmation inside this corrective structure (lower timeframe BOS or SMC entry).
Targeting the HTF Lower Low (LL) at ~3,290, with potential for extended move toward 3,275 if NY volatility sustains.
Summary
Bias: Bearish
Reason: Structure Break (Indication), Pullback (Correction), Anticipating Downside Continuation
Confluences:
HTF Structure Break
Previous liquidity sweep from London
NY session volatility
Correction stalling beneath broken HL
Invalidation: A clean 1H close above 3,345–3,348 would invalidate the bearish bias and suggest a deeper retracement or reversal.
NQ: 218th trading session - recapYeaaa although I did make $2,000 profits it wasn't the best thing ever. I mean I gotta cut myself some slack: The higher timeframe bias was pretty good. And the structure wasn't too shabby. It really was the momentum that turned an A+/S tier setup into a B+ setup which is a HUGE jump.
Mid-Session Market ReviewMid-Session Market Review
S&P 500: After some initial volatility from the 8:30 news, the market accepted above the prior day’s levels but has since pulled back within range, consolidating just below the highs.
NASDAQ: The NASDAQ remains above all of yesterday’s levels and is currently balancing between the high of the day and the 23,100 level, showing a rotational pattern.
Russell 2000: This market is rotational within the prior day’s range and has accepted below the CVA and PVA. Potential trade opportunities might come with a pullback to the 2,245 area.
Gold: Gold has accepted below the prior value area and is still rotational within the CVA. Trade opportunities could present themselves near the prior day’s low.
Crude Oil: The market is quite choppy, hovering around the prior day’s low and value area low. Caution is advised, with potential long opportunities on a pullback, as long as conditions align.
Euro Dollar: The Euro is dropping significantly, moving below all key levels without much respect for them. This could provide short opportunities if there’s a pullback.
Yen: Similar to the Euro, the Yen is also pushing below previous levels. It’s getting choppy near the CVA low, so caution is needed until it shows more respect for those levels.
Natural Gas: The market is rotational within the prior day’s range and respecting the CVA high. Long opportunities might be possible if conditions are right.
Aussie Dollar: It’s showing some respect for the CVA low and is still rotational. There could be a potential long setup forming, depending on how it plays out.
British Pound: The Pound has accepted below all key levels, and a pullback to the CVA low might provide short opportunities, though caution is needed around the VWAP.
Gold Double Bottom Rejection - Bullish Confirmation PatternThere is currently a double bottom rejection pattern at play and price is reacting to an H4 TF demand zone. Confirmations to go long will be in this demand zone or the next one. But my money is on the current one.
Best thing to do is wait for an M15 supply to break to validate taking longs from the current demand. But the bulls are showing strength.
GOLD 1H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Quick follow up on our 1H chart idea
We had a nice push up on the chart at the start of the week, coming close but just short of the 3381 gap. Still, it was a solid catch that respected our levels beautifully.
Following that, we cleared our 3353 Bearish Target, which also triggered the EMA5 cross and lock, confirming the move toward our 3328 retracement range, a level we hit perfectly.
As expected, we're now seeing a reaction in this 3328 zone, which remains key. We are watching this closely for a potential bounce. However, if price crosses and locks below 3328, the swing range will open, setting up the potential for a larger swing bounce from deeper levels.
We’ll continue using dips and key support zones for scalps and intraday bounces, aiming for 20–40 pips per level. The structure remains valid, and as mentioned before, our back-tested levels have consistently shown strong reaction zones over the past 24 months.
Updated Reminder of Key Levels:
BULLISH TARGET
3381
EMA5 CROSS & LOCK ABOVE 3381 opens
3416
EMA5 CROSS & LOCK ABOVE 3416 opens
3439
BEARISH TARGETS
3353 ✅ HIT
EMA5 CROSS & LOCK BELOW 3353 opens
3328 ✅ HIT
EMA5 CROSS & LOCK BELOW 3328 opens
3305
EMA5 CROSS & LOCK BELOW 3305 opens Swing Range:
3288
3259
As always, we’ll continue monitoring and sharing updates, as price reacts around these zones. Thank you all for the continued support, your likes, comments, and follows are genuinely appreciated!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (1H UPDATE)Yesterday's entry hit SL, as price pushed up a little higher for liquidity, ahead of today's CPI data.
I have entered another sell entry today at $3,353. Couldn't send analysis straight away as I was out & didn't have my laptop on me. But re-trying this analysis one last time. If SL is hit, we will wait for $3,400 entry.
US OIL SELL...Hello friends🙌
🔊As you can see, this chart works well in forming a channel, and now that
we have witnessed a price drop, the price has reached the bottom of the channel, and given the previous heavy drop, the channel shows that the power is currently in the hands of sellers and it is likely that the specified targets will move.
🔥Follow us for more signals🔥
Trade safely with us
Don’t hesitate, a massive gold move Is brewingRefer to my previous trading idea. Gold retreated as expected. We almost caught the highest point of the day and shorted gold near 3365, and successfully hit TP: 3346, which enabled us to successfully profit 190pips in short-term trading, with a profit of nearly $10K, which is a good result in short-term trading.
Currently, the lowest point of gold in the retracement process has reached around 3335, which has fully released the short energy and vented the bearish sentiment in the market. All the bad news is out, which means good news! Although gold fell from 3375 to 3335, the retracement was as high as $40, but the rising structure has not been completely destroyed. The previous W-shaped double bottom support structure and the resonance effect of the inverted head and shoulder support structure still exist. As long as gold stays above 3325, gold bulls still have the potential to attack.
Moreover, after this round of retracement, the bearish sentiment of gold was vented, and the liquidity was greatly increased, attracting more buyers to actively enter the market. Gold may start a retaliatory rebound, and even touch 3375 again or even break through and continue to the 3380-3390 area.
So for short-term trading, I think we can try to go long on gold in the 3335-3325 area appropriately, first looking forward to gold regaining lost ground: 3350-3360 area, followed by 3380-3390 area.
WTI OIL Is it forming a bottom?WTI Oil (USOIL) Has been trading within a Rising Wedge pattern and since June 02, it has turned its 1D MA50 as a Support. Technically the recent 2-week consolidation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is a bottom formation on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Rising Wedge.
As long as the 1D MA50 holds, we remain bullish, targeting $80.00 (Resistance 1). If the 1D MA50 breaks (closes a 1D candle below it), we will take the loss, and turn bearish instead, targeting $60.05 (Support 1).
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GOLD AT CROSSROADS: CAPITALIZING ON MARKET SHIFTS FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
With Gold currently trading at 3357, we're at a pivotal moment. The confluence of heightened geopolitical tensions and recent decisive US government actions – including renewed tariff threats and evolving monetary policy signals – is creating a clear trajectory. Analysis indicates a compelling opportunity to initiate aggressive sell signals, targeting 3345 and then pushing for 3330. Risk is rigorously managed with a disciplined stop loss at 3380. This is a strategic move, designed to profit from the immediate downward pressures stemming from the global political and economic landscape, as the market re-calibrates to these powerful forces."