Bull vs Bear Power by DGTElder-Ray Bear and Bull Power
Dr. Alexander Elder cleverly named his first indicator Elder-Ray because of its function, which is designed to see through the market like an X-ray machine. Developed in 1989, the Elder-Ray indicator can be applied to the chart of any security and helps traders determine the strength of competing groups of bulls and bears by gazing under the surface of the markets for data that may not immediately be ascertainable from a superficial glance at prices
The Elder-Ray indicator is comprised by three elements – Bear Power, Bull Power and a 13-period Exponential Moving Average.
As the high price of any candle shows the maximum power of buyers and the low price of any candle shows the maximum power of sellers, Elder uses the 13-period EMA in order to present the average consensus of price value. Bull power shows whether buyers are capable of pushing prices above the average consensus of value. Bear power shows whether sellers are capable of pushing prices below the average consensus of value. Mathematically, Bull power is the result of subtracting the 13-period EMA from the high price of the day, and Bear power is the result of subtracting the 13-period EMA from the low price of the day.
What does this study implements
Attempts to customize interpretation of Alexander Elder's Elder-Ray Indicator (Bull and Bear Power) by
• adding additional insights to support/confirm Elder’s strategy with different indicators related with the Elder’s concept
• providing different options of visualization of the indicator
• providing smoothing capability
Other Indicators to support/confirm Elder-Ray Indicator:
Colored Directional Movement Index (CDMI) , a custom interpretation of J. Welles Wilder’s Directional Movement Index (DMI) , where :
DMI is a collection of three separate indicators ( ADX , +DI , -DI ) combined into one and measures the trend’s strength as well as its direction
CDMI is a custom interpretation of DMI which presents ( ADX , +DI , -DI ) with a color scale - representing the trend’s strength, color density - representing momentum/slope of the trend’s strength, and triangle up/down shapes - representing the trend’s direction. CDMI provides all the information in a single line with colored triangle shapes plotted on the top. DMI can provide quality information and even trading signals but it is not an easy indicator to master, whereus CDMI simplifies its usage.
Alexander Elder considers the slope of the EMA, which gives insight into the recent trend whether is up or down, and CDMI adds additional insight of verifying/confirming the trend as well as its strength
Note : educational content of how to read CDMI can be found in ideas section named as “Colored Directional Movement Index”
different usages of CDMI can be observed with studies “Candlestick Patterns in Context by DGT", “Ichimoku Colored SuperTrend + Colored DMI by DGT”, “Colored Directional Movement and Bollinger Band's Cloud by DGT”, and “Technical Analyst by DGT”
Price Convergence/Divergence , if we pay attention to mathematical formulations of bull power, bear power and price convergence/divergence (also can be expressed as price distance to its ma) we would clearly observe that price convergence/divergence is in fact the result of how the market performed based on the fact that we assume 13-period EMA is consensus of price value. Then, we may assume that the price convergence/divergence crosses of bull power, or bear power, or sum of bull and bear power could be considered as potential trading signals
Additionally, price convergence/divergence visualizes the belief that prices high above the moving average or low below it are likely to be remedied in the future by a reverse price movement
Alternatively, Least Squares Moving Average of Price Convergence/Divergence (also known as Linear Regression Curve) can be plotted instead of Price Convergence/Divergence which can be considered as a smoothed version of Price Convergence/Divergence
Note : different usages of Price Convergence/Divergence can be observed with studies “Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index by DGT”, “Price Distance to its MA by DGT”, “P-MACD by DGT”, where “Price Distance to its MA by DGT” can also be considered as educational content which includes an article of a research carried on the topic
Options of Visualization
Bull and Bear Power plotted as two separate
• histograms
• lines
• bands
Sum of Bull and Bear Power plotted as single
• histogram
• line
• band
Others
Price Convergence/Divergence displayed as Line
CDMI is displayed as single colored line of triangle shapes, where triangle shapes displays direction of the trend (triangle up represents bull and triangle down represent bear), colors of CDMI displays the strength of the trend (green – strong bullish, red – strong bearish, gray – no trend, yellow – week trend)
In general with this study, color densities also have a meaning and aims to displays if the value of the indicator is falling or growing, darker colors displays more intense move comparing to light one
Note : band's upper and lower levels are calculated by using standard deviation build-in function with multiply factor of 0.236 Fibonacci’s ratio (just a number for our case, no any meaning)
Smoothing
No smoothing is applied by default but the capability is added in case Price Convergence/Divergence Line is assumed to be used as a signal line it will be worth smoothing the bear, bull or sum of bear and bull power indicators
Interpreting Elder-Ray Indicator, according to Dr. Alexander Elder
Bull Power should remain positive in normal circumstances, while Bear Power should remain negative in normal circumstances. In case the Bull Power indicator enters into negative territory, this implies that sellers have overcome buyers and control the market. In case the Bear Power indicator enters into positive territory, this indicates that buyers have overcome sellers and control the market. A trader should not go long at times when the Bear Power indicator is positive and he/she should not go short at times when the Bull Power indicator is negative.
13-period EMAs slope can be used in order to identify the direction of the major trend. According to Elder, the most reliable buy signals are generated, when there is a bullish divergence between the Bear Power indicator and the price (Bear Power forms higher lows, while the market forms lower lows). The most reliable sell signals are generated, when there is a bearish divergence between the Bull Power indicator and the price (Bull Power forms lower highs, while the market forms higher highs).
There are four basic conditions, required to go long or short, with the use of the Elder-Ray method alone.
In order to go long:
1. The market is in a bull trend, as indicated by the 13-period EMA
2. Bear Power is in negative territory, but increasing
3. The most recent Bull Power top is higher than its prior top
4. Bear Power is going up from a bullish divergence
The last two conditions are optional that fine-tune the buying decision
In order to go short:
1. The market is in a bear trend, as indicated by the 13-period EMA
2. Bull Power is in positive territory, but falling
3. The most recent Bear Power bottom is lower than its prior bottom
4. Bull Power is falling from a bearish divergence
The last two conditions are optional, they provide a stronger signal for shorting but they are not absolutely essential
If a trader is willing to add to his/her position, he/she needs to:
1. add to his/her long position, when the Bear Power falls below zero and then climbs back into positive territory
2. add to his/her short position, when the Bull Power increases above zero and then drops back into negative territory.
note : terminology of the definitions used herein are as per TV dictionary
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
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