Dual Mean Reversion Channel (adjusted lower band)This is a public and open-source lighter version compared to the "Overextended Price Channel" which is provided complimentaty to the Trend Insight System.
Introduction :
Channels are very useful tools to assess overextended price, volatility and upcoming retracement or impulsive moves (such as Bollinger Band squeezes). It is an indispensable addition to any trader using Mean Reversion theory for a scalp-trade or swing-trade.
This script contains :
- 2 channels Keltner-style, using the True Range for volatility
- customizable volatility (channel width) and smoothing period
- a standard selection of moving average ; SMA, EMA, VWMA
- an embedded readjustment of the lower bands to avoid the drop on a logarithmic scale (see explanation below)
Why another channel indicator ?
I have found most conventional channels to be either not based on "proper" volatility (e.g. standard deviation of price action for Bollinger Band), or the bottom channel to be ill adapted to the logarithmic scale and plunges to 0 on some high volatility periods, messing with readability on logarithmic auto-scaled chart.
Also, I find the channels to be most useful when superimposed with another one of longer length; especially a pair of channels with a 50 and 200 period moving average respectively. Mean Reversion traders that mostly trade the 50 and 200 SMA/EMA know what I am talking about as having a channel helps to have a better visual for a proper of entry and exit point.
Disclaimer :
This indicator was originally intended to be used along with the Trend Insight System to improve performance, and the default configuration mostly backtested on BTCUSD.
Please use with caution, proper risk management and along with your favorite oscillator, candlestick reading and signals system.
Some explanation :
Based on Mean Reversion paradigm, everything has a tendency to revert back to the mean :
- when the price enters the upper channel, it is supposed to be (or start getting) overbought as the market is getting overheated, thus prone to correction,
- on the other hand, when the price enters the lower channel, it is supposed to be (or getting) oversold and the market looks favorable for a buy-in.
Depending on the trading style used, a trader will usually either wait until the price leaves the channel towards the mean before taking action (conservative style) or you will set limit orders inside the channel as you expect a reversion to the mean (more agressive/risky style).
With two channels, more complex (and maybe precise) rules can be built to optimize one's trading strategy.
Important notes :
In the end, sticking with 50/200 length and a single setting on volatility might be wiser, be wary of overoptimization which is risky at best and counter productive at worst (according to legendary traders such as Mark Douglas). Even if, needless to say, the volatility needs to be adjusted between a nascent and volatile market (such as crypto) compared to standard call markets that are much less volatile.
End notes :
It will always be considered a work in progress to help bring out the best of trading with channels, any comment and suggestion are welcomed.
Channelsindicatorsandsignals
Fat Side PathI got the idea for a narrow Donchian Channel with a short lookback period which closely follows the price fluctuation in which the sides of the channel have a thickness according to the range of the last touching candle.
Any channel, be it Donchian, Keltner, Bollinger Bands or Parallel, has an upside and a downside, touching the upside is a buy signal as this may initiate an uptrend, the downside a sell signal because a down trend may come.
This gave me the idea to make only the last touched side fat, thus creating visible switching between uptrend and downtrend. However this is ‘too digital’, as in practice also periods of no trend occur in which signaling a trend would give a false signal. In a Donchian channel (and also Bollinger Bands) such periods are marked by narrowing the channel. So I gave a no trend signal to the sides when the channel is narrower than a minimum width to call a trend. I gave the thing nice colours and proper default settings.
Use of the channel in trading.
I think this thing can be useful for swing trading. In channels two typical things may happen that should be noted by the trader, these are LB, Leaving the Border, which signals a trend reversal and FTT, Failure To Traverse, i.e. the price doesn’t manage to cross the channel to the other side. This affirms the trend. FTT’s are not expected in short lookback channels like this path (Sidenote: Fibonacci levels can be regarded as predictions where FTT’s may occur). The fat side indicates direction. Because somehow trends seem to end with a notable range extension, this channel sometimes produces a “Big Blob” where the trend reverses.
I intend to use this thing together with my Keltner Fibzones channel, where the zones serve as a ‘landscape’ in which the Fat Side Path meanders providing ‘comments’ on the short term price movements.
