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GDP

The Investment Clock Orbital GraphThe Investment Clock Orbital Graph is an advanced visualization tool designed to help traders and investors track economic cycles using a dynamic scatter plot of GDP growth vs. CPI inflation rates. This indicator is a fusion of two powerful TradingView indicators: LuxAlgo ’s Relative Strength Scatter Plot – A robust scatter plot for tracking relative strength. The Investment Clock Indicator – A cycle-based approach to market rotation. This indicator contains more information regarding The Investment Clock. By combining these approaches, the Investment Clock Orbital Graph enables traders to visualize economic momentum and inflationary trends in a unique, orbital-style scatter plot. Key Features & Improvements Orbital Graph Representation – Displays GDP growth and CPI inflation as a dynamic, evolving scatter plot, showing how the economy moves through different phases. Quadrant-Based Market Regimes – Identifies four key economic phases: 1)🔥 Overheating (High Growth, High Inflation) 2)📉 Stagflation (Low Growth, High Inflation) 3)🤒 Recovery (High Growth, Low Inflation) 4)🎈 Reflation (Low Growth, Low Inflation) Data-Driven Analysis – Utilizes FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) for accurate real-world GDP & CPI data. Trailing Path of Economic Evolution – Tracks historical economic cycles over time to show momentum and cyclical movements. Customizable Parameters – Set sustainable GDP growth and inflation thresholds, adjust trail length, and fine-tune scatter plot resolution. Auto-Labeled Quadrants & Revised Accurate Market Guidance – Each quadrant includes newly updated tooltips and annotations (like ETF suggestions) to help traders make informed decisions. Live Macro Forecasting Tool – Helps traders anticipate future market conditions, rate hikes/cuts, and sector rotations. How to Use for Trading Decisions The Investment Clock Orbital Graph helps traders and macro investors by identifying market phases and providing insights into asset class performance during different economic conditions. 📌 Step 1: Identify the Current Quadrant Locate the most recent point on the orbital graph to see if the economy is in Overheating, Stagflation, Recovery, or Reflation. 📌 Step 2: Forecast Market Trends The trajectory of the points can predict upcoming economic shifts: Overheating → Stagflation ➡️ Expect economic slowdowns, bearish stock markets. Stagflation → Reflation ➡️ Interest rate cuts likely, bonds and defensive stocks perform well. Reflation → Recovery ➡️ Risk-on rally, technology and cyclicals perform best. Recovery → Overheating ➡️ Commodities surge, inflation rises, and central banks intervene. 📌 Step 3: Align Trading & Investing Strategies 🔥 Overheating – Favor commodities & energy (Oil, Industrial Stocks, Materials). 📉 Stagflation – Favor defensive assets (Cash, Utilities, Healthcare). 🤒 Recovery – Favor growth stocks (Technology, Consumer Discretionary). 🎈 Reflation – Favor bonds, value stocks, and financials. 📌 Step 4: Monitor Trends Over Time The indicator visualizes economic movement over multiple months, allowing traders to confirm long-term trends vs. short-term noise. The Investment Clock Orbital Graph is an essential macro trading tool, providing a real-time visualization of economic conditions. By tracking GDP growth vs. CPI inflation, traders and investors can align their portfolios with major macroeconomic shifts, predict sector rotations, and anticipate central bank policy changes.
Pine Script® indicator
by BarefootJoey
6
Excess Liquidity IndicatorExcess Liquidity Indicator This script visualizes excess liquidity trends in relation to risk assets. It estimates excess liquidity by combining various macroeconomic factors such as WW M2 money supply, central bank balance sheets, and interest rates, oil, and the dollar index, and it substracts WW GDP. The tool helps traders analyze liquidity-driven market trends in a structured manner. Note: This script is for research purposes only and does not provide financial advice. I cannot point names cause I get banned but work is inspired by others...
Pine Script® indicator
by mks17
Market Health MonitorThe Market Health Monitor is a comprehensive tool designed to assess and visualize the economic health of a market, providing traders with vital insights into both current and future market conditions. This script integrates a range of critical economic indicators, including unemployment rates, inflation, Federal Reserve funds rates, consumer confidence, and housing market indices, to form a robust understanding of the overall economic landscape. Drawing on a variety of data sources, the Market Health Monitor employs moving averages over periods of 3, 12, 36, and 120 months, corresponding to quarterly, annual, three-year, and ten-year economic cycles. This selection of timeframes is specifically chosen to capture the nuances of economic movements across different phases, providing a balanced view that is sensitive to both immediate changes and long-term trends. Key Features: Economic Indicators Integration: The script synthesizes crucial economic data such as unemployment rates, inflation levels, and housing market trends, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on market health. Adaptability to Market Conditions: The inclusion of both short-term and long-term moving averages allows the Market Health Monitor to adapt to varying market conditions, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies. Oscillator Thresholds for Recession and Growth: The script sets specific thresholds that, when crossed, indicate either potential economic downturns (recessions) or periods of growth (expansions), allowing traders to anticipate and react to changing market conditions proactively. Color-Coded Visualization: The Market Health Monitor employs a color-coding system for ease of interpretation: -- A red background signals unhealthy economic conditions, cautioning traders about potential risks. -- A bright red background indicates a confirmed recession, as declared by the NBER, signaling a critical time for traders to reassess risk exposure. -- A green background suggests a healthy market with expected economic expansion, pointing towards growth-oriented opportunities. Comprehensive Market Analysis: By combining various economic indicators, the script offers a holistic view of the market, enabling traders to make well-informed decisions based on a thorough understanding of the economic environment. Key Criteria and Parameters: Economic Indicators: Labor Market: The unemployment rate is a critical indicator of economic health. High or rising unemployment indicates reduced consumer spending and economic stress. Inflation: Key for understanding monetary policy and consumer purchasing power. Persistent high inflation can lead to economic instability, while deflation can signal weak demand. Monetary Policy: Reflected by the Federal Reserve funds rate. Changes in the rate can influence economic activity, borrowing costs, and investor sentiment. Consumer Confidence: A predictor of consumer spending and economic activity. Reflects the public’s perception of the economy Housing Market: The housing market often leads the economy into recession and recovery. Weakness here can signal broader economic problems. Market Data: Stock Market Indices: Reflect overall investor sentiment and economic expectations. No gains in a stock market could potentially indicate that economy is slowing down. Credit Conditions: Indicated by the tightness of bank lending, signaling risk perception. Commodity Insight: Crude Oil Prices: A proxy for global economic activity. Indicator Timeframe: A default monthly timeframe is chosen to align with the release frequency of many economic indicators, offering a balanced view between timely data and avoiding too much noise from short-term fluctuations. Surely, it can be chosen by trader / analyst. The Market Health Monitor is more than just a trading tool—it's a comprehensive economic guide. It's designed for traders who value an in-depth understanding of the economic climate. By offering insights into both current conditions and future trends, it encourages traders to navigate the markets with confidence, whether through turbulent times or in periods of growth. This tool doesn't just help you follow the market—it helps you understand it.
Pine Script® indicator
by mezor13
Global Monetary Supply M2 Vs the Global GDP This indicator compares the Global (world) Monetary Supply (measured in USD) compared to the Global GDP. This can be useful to measure the "money printing speed" of the world compare to the "world gdp growth", the higher the slope (angle of growth) the more money printing. It includes the exact same countries of the Global M2 indicator (done by me), to make fair the comparison, which has the richest and most populous countries so to have a clear overview. There tough a few very populated countries excluded, the details can be found on the Global M2 indicator script and reason for exclusion. Enjoy!
Pine Script® indicator
by miguefinance
1
Recession Warning Traffic LightThis is an indicator that uses 6 different metrics to determine the combined probability of a recession and compares the high probability warning periods against actual historical periods of recession. GREEN tells us that the referenced recession indicators are not exhibiting any warning. Observe the long stretches of “all-green” in between recessionary periods in the chart above. RED will show a full-on warning level for that particular recession indicator, signaling that monitoring of this sector is clearly showing a problem – which has in the past, reliably exhibited itself as a forewarning of recessions. Adding green and red together can help determine a combined probability of recession. IMPORTANT: Your chart should be on 1d and set to SPX , DJI ,or NDQ indices Precious metals: This indicator calculates the relative prices of Gold & rhodium. Gold is a flight-to-quality asset. Rhodium is the rarest of precious industrial metals and prices spike when the economy is heating up. In front of a recession, the upper relative movement of rhodium precedes gold. Stock markets: This indicator compares closing prices to growth rate curves of the SPX. This indication is the noisiest but tells us very well when the recession has ended. Stock market indices, which respond to “smart money” moving out of markets when the other indicators begin to warn of recession, or when markets become overheated and rise to historically unsustainable levels. Yield curve: This indicator compares the 3m & 10y treasuries and detects yield curve inversions. Interest rates are controlled by the Federal Reserve and by the purchasers in the Federal Treasury auction markets, which together create the treasury yield curve. This inversion is the most reliable recession indicator. These happen during a flight to quality. Federal Reserve: This indicator measures GDP and detects contraction which is technically a recession. This is usually one of the last indicators to enter a Warning state, and it could be 6 months delayed simply confirming what may have already been projected. Money Supply. This indicator measures the M2 money supply, which typically grows about 1% per calendar quarter. When this shrinks, it's tapping the brakes on the economy. This can also lead to yield curve inversion. This is also a measure of inflation and its effects on the aggregate money supply (liquid capital) available for short-term economic activity, or which can be directed into the purchase of long-term, less liquid assets. Leading Economic factors: There is a whole basket of leading economic indicators that, as collections, reflect overall growth or contraction of economic activity. These indicators include measures of level and growth in productivity, employment, housing, consumer confidence, industrial purchasing confidence, and much more. These indicators may or may not be detached from the broader economy, and often provide up to 6 months of foresight. For more information please visit www.conference-board.org Actual Recession: Central Bank indicators are published by the Federal Reserve and reflect their own analysis of national and regional economic health, as well as their calculations of the likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve has a recession ticker which is used to plot periods of actual recessions on this indicator for comparison.
Pine Script® indicator
by BarefootJoey
27
GDP BreakdownProvides an easy way for viewing the sub sections that make up a country's total GDP. Not all countries provide data for each subsector (Agriculture, Construction, Manufacturing, Mining, Public Administration, Services, Utilities). Only countries that provide complete data are able to be selected in the settings. If I've missed any please let me know in the comment section so they can be added. This is much easier than having to individually selecting each ticker for each country when looking to compare how diversified an economy is.
Pine Script® indicator
by EsIstTurnt
Relevant World GDP GroupedLooking at a basket of countries total GDP for comparing size of economy. Makes it easy to select your own groupings of countries for comparison. A country's GDP is the total of consumer spending (C) plus business investment (I) and government spending (G), plus net exports, which is total exports minus total imports (X – M). Alliances visualized was the original idea but wasn't quite sure for a lot of other countries where they stand so it is what it is; feel free to improve.
Pine Script® indicator
by EsIstTurnt
Swing Stock designed for Monthly/Yearly Trading This is a strategy tester designed around the most important data from FRED - Federal Reserve Economic Data As input data, we have: // Personal Consumption Expenditures // Real Retail and Food Services Sales // Leading Index for the United States // All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls // Real Gross Domestic Product // Gross Domestic Product I adapted the long and short entry based on the GDP data, since they are most accurate in prediction compared to the rest. However, feel free to test with other as well if you want. For this test I compared previous GDP values, if they were higher than previous that represent a long signals, if they were smaller that represents a reversal=short signal. From the tests performed we can see that GDP is highly accurate and overall as long as there is patience, profits are going to be make, sometimes even beat the index itself. If you have any questions, let me know !
Pine Script® strategy
by exlux
1
Buffett Indicator [Bitcoin Machine]This is the Warren Buffett Indicator, the total market cap relative to the US gross domestic product (GDP). It is also called "Market Cap to GDP Indicator". For the market cap typically the Wilshire 5000 total market cap is used, which is representing the value of all stocks traded in the United States. Tradingview just provides the Wilshire W4500. We can calculate the W5000 by adding the S&P500 to the W4500. Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator and as pointed by Warren Buffett, the indicator is “probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” It used as a broad way of assessing whether the country’s stock market is overvalued or undervalued, compared to a historical average. Remark: The Wilshire W4500 and the S&P500 are indices and denoted in "index points" (not USD). The Original Buffett Indicator is using market cap in US-Dollar. So the right scale of the indicator is different to the original one.
Pine Script® indicator
by Bitcoin_Machine
1
Buffet indicatorI was tired of not having something to compare the real economic strength of a country (US only for now...) to it's companies valuations. So I made my own! Trading view does not have the wilshire indice, but it has the Rus 3000, good enough, & the US GDP since 1946 so this is what I am using. Warren Buffet is famous for liking this so now the idea has its name. Let's call it the Buffet indicator (I doubt the only one that had the idea). This indicator can be used on any indice thought, even on specific stocks. You can even use it as a filter with an alarm (ofc not to be used on its own but patient people can really go far if they ONLY invest when the ratio is at the bottom, just as long as it is in the right companies): One could invest in the middle of the highest green area (waiting for it to go too low = risk missing out), and add more when it goes to the second green area, for example. You sort it out. Enjoy! See you on Mars luxury station in 25 years (the one I will build).
Pine Script® indicator
by MrRenev
17