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Know Sure Thing (KST)

KST Strategy [Skyrexio]Overview KST Strategy leverages Know Sure Thing (KST) indicator in conjunction with the Williams Alligator and Moving average to obtain the high probability setups. KST is used for for having the high probability to enter in the direction of a current trend when momentum is rising, Alligator is used as a short term trend filter, while Moving average approximates the long term trend and allows trades only in its direction. Also strategy has the additional optional filter on Choppiness Index which does not allow trades if market is choppy, above the user-specified threshold. Strategy has the user specified take profit and stop-loss numbers, but multiplied by Average True Range (ATR) value on the moment when trade is open. The strategy opens only long trades. Unique Features ATR based stop-loss and take profit. Instead of fixed take profit and stop-loss percentage strategy utilizes user chosen numbers multiplied by ATR for its calculation. Configurable Trading Periods. Users can tailor the strategy to specific market windows, adapting to different market conditions. Optional Choppiness Index filter. Strategy allows to choose if it will use the filter trades with Choppiness Index and set up its threshold. Methodology The strategy opens long trade when the following price met the conditions: Close price is above the Alligator's jaw line Close price is above the filtering Moving average KST line of Know Sure Thing indicator shall cross over its signal line (details in justification of methodology) If the Choppiness Index filter is enabled its value shall be less than user defined threshold When the long trade is executed algorithm defines the stop-loss level as the low minus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. Also it defines take profit with close price plus user defined number, multiplied by ATR at the trade open candle. While trade is in progress, if high price on any candle above the calculated take profit level or low price is below the calculated stop loss level, trade is closed. Strategy settings In the inputs window user can setup the following strategy settings: ATR Stop Loss (by default = 1.5, number of ATRs to calculate stop-loss level) ATR Take Profit (by default = 3.5, number of ATRs to calculate take profit level) Filter MA Type (by default = Least Squares MA, type of moving average which is used for filter MA) Filter MA Length (by default = 200, length for filter MA calculation) Enable Choppiness Index Filter (by default = true, setting to choose the optional filtering using Choppiness index) Choppiness Index Threshold (by default = 50, Choppiness Index threshold, its value shall be below it to allow trades execution) Choppiness Index Length (by default = 14, length used in Choppiness index calculation) KST ROC Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST ROC Length #2 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST ROC Length #3 (by default = 20, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST ROC Length #4 (by default = 30, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST SMA Length #1 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST SMA Length #2 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST SMA Length #3 (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST SMA Length #4 (by default = 15, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) KST Signal Line Length (by default = 10, value used in KST indicator calculation, more information in Justification of Methodology) User can choose the optimal parameters during backtesting on certain price chart. Justification of Methodology Before understanding why this particular combination of indicator has been chosen let's briefly explain what is KST, Williams Alligator, Moving Average, ATR and Choppiness Index. The KST (Know Sure Thing) is a momentum oscillator developed by Martin Pring. It combines multiple Rate of Change (ROC) values, smoothed over different timeframes, to identify trend direction and momentum strength. First of all, what is ROC? ROC (Rate of Change) is a momentum indicator that measures the percentage change in price between the current price and the price a set number of periods ago. ROC = 100 * (Current Price - Price N Periods Ago) / Price N Periods Ago In our case N is the KST ROC Length inputs from settings, here we will calculate 4 different ROCs to obtain KST value: KST = ROC1_smooth × 1 + ROC2_smooth × 2 + ROC3_smooth × 3 + ROC4_smooth × 4 ROC1 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #1), smoothed by KST SMA Length #1, ROC2 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #2), smoothed by KST SMA Length #2, ROC3 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #3), smoothed by KST SMA Length #3, ROC4 = ROC(close, KST ROC Length #4), smoothed by KST SMA Length #4 Also for this indicator the signal line is calculated: Signal = SMA(KST, KST Signal Line Length) When the KST line rises, it indicates increasing momentum and suggests that an upward trend may be developing. Conversely, when the KST line declines, it reflects weakening momentum and a potential downward trend. A crossover of the KST line above its signal line is considered a buy signal, while a crossover below the signal line is viewed as a sell signal. If the KST stays above zero, it indicates overall bullish momentum; if it remains below zero, it points to bearish momentum. The KST indicator smooths momentum across multiple timeframes, helping to reduce noise and provide clearer signals for medium- to long-term trends. Next, let’s discuss the short-term trend filter, which combines the Williams Alligator and Williams Fractals. Williams Alligator Developed by Bill Williams, the Alligator is a technical indicator that identifies trends and potential market reversals. It consists of three smoothed moving averages: Jaw (Blue Line): The slowest of the three, based on a 13-period smoothed moving average shifted 8 bars ahead. Teeth (Red Line): The medium-speed line, derived from an 8-period smoothed moving average shifted 5 bars forward. Lips (Green Line): The fastest line, calculated using a 5-period smoothed moving average shifted 3 bars forward. When the lines diverge and align in order, the "Alligator" is "awake," signaling a strong trend. When the lines overlap or intertwine, the "Alligator" is "asleep," indicating a range-bound or sideways market. This indicator helps traders determine when to enter or avoid trades. The next indicator is Moving Average. It has a lot of different types which can be chosen to filter trades and the Least Squares MA is used by default settings. Let's briefly explain what is it. The Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) — also known as Linear Regression Moving Average — is a trend-following indicator that uses the least squares method to fit a straight line to the price data over a given period, then plots the value of that line at the most recent point. It draws the best-fitting straight line through the past N prices (using linear regression), and then takes the endpoint of that line as the value of the moving average for that bar. The LSMA aims to reduce lag and highlight the current trend more accurately than traditional moving averages like SMA or EMA. Key Features: It reacts faster to price changes than most moving averages. It is smoother and less noisy than short-term EMAs. It can be used to identify trend direction, momentum, and potential reversal points. ATR (Average True Range) is a volatility indicator that measures how much an asset typically moves during a given period. It was introduced by J. Welles Wilder and is widely used to assess market volatility, not direction. To calculate it first of all we need to get True Range (TR), this is the greatest value among: High - Low abs(High - Previous Close) abs(Low - Previous Close) ATR = MA(TR, n) , where n is number of periods for moving average, in our case equals 14. ATR shows how much an asset moves on average per candle/bar. A higher ATR means more volatility; a lower ATR means a calmer market. The Choppiness Index is a technical indicator that quantifies whether the market is trending or choppy (sideways). It doesn't indicate trend direction — only the strength or weakness of a trend. Higher Choppiness Index usually approximates the sideways market, while its low value tells us that there is a high probability of a trend. Choppiness Index = 100 × log10(ΣATR(n) / (MaxHigh(n) - MinLow(n))) / log10(n) where: ΣATR(n) = sum of the Average True Range over n periods MaxHigh(n) = highest high over n periods MinLow(n) = lowest low over n periods log10 = base-10 logarithm Now let's understand how these indicators work in conjunction and why they were chosen for this strategy. KST indicator approximates current momentum, when it is rising and KST line crosses over the signal line there is high probability that short term trend is reversing to the upside and strategy allows to take part in this potential move. Alligator's jaw (blue) line is used as an approximation of a short term trend, taking trades only above it we want to avoid trading against trend to increase probability that long trade is going to be winning. Almost the same for Moving Average, but it approximates the long term trend, this is just the additional filter. If we trade in the direction of the long term trend we increase probability that higher risk to reward trade will hit the take profit. Choppiness index is the optional filter, but if it turned on it is used for approximating if now market is in sideways or in trend. On the range bounded market the potential moves are restricted. We want to decrease probability opening trades in such condition avoiding trades if this index is above threshold value. When trade is open script sets the stop loss and take profit targets. ATR approximates the current volatility, so we can make a decision when to exit a trade based on current market condition, it can increase the probability that strategy will avoid the excessive stop loss hits, but anyway user can setup how many ATRs to use as a stop loss and take profit target. As was said in the Methodology stop loss level is obtained by subtracting number of ATRs from trade opening candle low, while take profit by adding to this candle's close. Backtest Results Operating window: Date range of backtests is 2023.01.01 - 2025.05.01. It is chosen to let the strategy to close all opened positions. Commission and Slippage: Includes a standard Binance commission of 0.1% and accounts for possible slippage over 5 ticks. Initial capital: 10000 USDT Percent of capital used in every trade: 60% Maximum Single Position Loss: -5.53% Maximum Single Profit: +8.35% Net Profit: +5175.20 USDT (+51.75%) Total Trades: 120 (56.67% win rate) Profit Factor: 1.747 Maximum Accumulated Loss: 1039.89 USDT (-9.1%) Average Profit per Trade: 43.13 USDT (+0.6%) Average Trade Duration: 27 hours These results are obtained with realistic parameters representing trading conditions observed at major exchanges such as Binance and with realistic trading portfolio usage parameters. How to Use Add the script to favorites for easy access. Apply to the desired timeframe and chart (optimal performance observed on 1h BTC/USDT). Configure settings using the dropdown choice list in the built-in menu. Set up alerts to automate strategy positions through web hook with the text: {{strategy.order.alert_message}} Disclaimer: Educational and informational tool reflecting Skyrexio commitment to informed trading. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Test strategies in a simulated environment before live implementation.
Pine Script® strategy
by Skyrexio
KST-Based MACDAs a follow-up to my previous script: I am posting a stand-alone KST-based MACD. Note that this indicator is highly laggy. Specific care must be taken when using it. The MACD-Signal crossing is quite delayed but it is a definite confirmation. For earlier signs, the Histogram must be analyzed. A shift from Green-White signals the 1st Bear Signal. A MACD-Signal crossing signals the 2nd Bear SIgnal. The same applies for bull-signs. This indicator is useful for long-term charts on which one might want to pinpoint clear, longterm divergences. Standard RSI, Stochastic RSI and MACD are notoriously problematic when trying to pinpoint long-term divergences. Finally, this indicator is not meant for pinpointing entry-exit positions. I find it useful for macro analysis. In my experience, the decreased sensitivity of this indicator can show very strong signs, that can be quite laggy. Inside the indicator there is a setting for "exotic calculations". This is an attempt to make this chart work in both linear/ negative charts (T10Y2Y) and log charts (SPX) Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Pine Script® indicator
by akikostas
10
KST con HMA---------- ENGLISH DESCRIPTION ---------- The indicator created is called "KST with HMA" and is used to measure the impulse of an asset's price. The code begins by defining four variables representing ROC (Rate of Change) period lengths for calculating the KST (Know Sure Thing) and a variable for the length of the HMA (Hull Moving Average). Next, an HMA function is defined to calculate the Hull Moving Average, a type of weighted moving average that adjusts for price volatility. ROC values are then calculated for the four periods defined above and KST values are calculated as a weighted sum of the ROC values. These values are then normalized with the HMA and the standard deviation of the HMA is calculated. The normalized value is finally plotted with three different color lines: black for values greater than 1, red for values less than -1, and green for values between -1 and 1. Finally, a black dashed line is plotted to represent the zero line. The green line indicates a phase of market uncertainty or lateralization, while the indicator can be used to identify buy points above zero and sell points below zero. ---------- ITALIAN DESCRIPTION ---------- L'indicatore creato è chiamato "KST con HMA" e viene utilizzato per misurare l'impulso del prezzo di un asset. Il codice inizia definendo quattro variabili che rappresentano le lunghezze dei periodi di ROC (Rate of Change) per il calcolo del KST (Know Sure Thing) e una variabile per la lunghezza dell'HMA (Hull Moving Average). Successivamente viene definita una funzione HMA per il calcolo della Hull Moving Average, un tipo di media mobile ponderata che si adatta alla volatilità del prezzo. Vengono poi calcolati i valori ROC per i quattro periodi definiti in precedenza e calcolati i valori KST come somma ponderata dei valori ROC. Questi valori vengono poi normalizzati con l'HMA e viene calcolata la deviazione standard dell'HMA. Il valore normalizzato viene infine plottato con tre diverse linee di colore: nero per valori superiori a 1, rosso per valori inferiori a -1 e verde per valori tra -1 e 1. Infine, viene plottata una linea tratteggiata nera per rappresentare la linea zero. La linea verde indica una fase di incertezza o lateralizzazione del mercato, mentre l'indicatore può essere utilizzato per individuare punti di acquisto sopra lo zero e di vendita al di sotto dello zero.
Pine Script® indicator
by c00l75
Know Sure Thing + RibbonFrom now on this will be the main indicator I will be using. The mathematical foundation of KST is elegant and trustworthy. I took the time to share this beautiful (in my opinion) indicator, because you will probably be seeing it in my future ideas. I am not a trader, this indicator was made to analyze mainly long-term charts, and trend-continuation/change analysis. The purpose of this indicator is not to give entry/exit points. However, the 9-period EMA (tightest EMA) can serve as an alternative to the classic "9-period MA signal line". Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Pine Script® indicator
by akikostas
3
MACD, EMA, Know sure thing, Chopy Market - high adaptabilityHey there :) This is the free version of the script. The following indicators / settings are missing: - Support and resistance zones - dynamic textboxes for alarms when using bots (3 Commas, Alertatron, etc.) - a table showing the current position, indicators and other important information With this script there is the possibility to completely customize the MACD . Starting with the MACD and signal line, the histogram and the color of the histogram. Since the Pinecoders team has previously deleted the script, I will mention the fee settings in a bit more detail: In this script a fee of 0.01% and a slipage of 15 was used. With each trade the total capital (100%) is used with a risk reward of 1 to 1.5. The total capital, i.e. the risk, can be changed at any time under the "Settings" tab at "Equity". I also added an EMA , the Know sure thing indicator and the Chopy Market indicator (by TradingRush) to the script to filter out bad trades. The EMA: Since the EMA is very reliable and shows whether there is an upward or downward trend, it should be used with the indicators in any case. It prevents long trades in downward movements and vice versa. The KST Indicator: The KST indicator has a similar movement as the MACD, but is by and large a bit more time delayed. It filters out false swings of the MACD and thus prevents bad trades. The Chopy Market Indicator by Tradingrush: The Chopy Market indicator, which was introduced by TradingRush in one of its videos, has the ability to detect sideways markets and block zones below this line for trades by means of a fixed value (the line). To exit the trades, I added the following options: ATR Exits. Exits based on past candles (lowest low, highest high). Static exits based on set percentages. In the next days I will create a tutorial for the script, just have a look on my profile. If you have any questions about the script, let me know.
Pine Script® strategy
by TradingStrategyCheck
1
Dynamic Price SwingFinally, a price channel oscillator that works. I programmed three flavors into this. The first flavor uses the Fast and Slow EMA to check for the trend to ensure you don't trade in the wrong direction simply because the price crosses the previous highest high or lowest low (based on lookback bars). The second flavor uses a seven point average of the Fibonacci bands to create an upper and lower central channel for quick trades (like DOGE). The third flavor uses the golden Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 and trades when the price moves above or below this band.
Pine Script® strategy
by Solutions1978
10
Function : Know Sure Thing ! (KST)Firstly : Know Sure Thing, or KST , is a momentum oscillator developed by Martin Pring to make rate-of-change readings easier for traders to interpret. In a 1992 Stocks and Commodities article, Mr. Pring referred to the indicator as "Summed Rate of Change ( KST )," but the KST term stuck with technical analysts. The indicator is relatively common among technical analysts preferring momentum oscillators to make decisions. References : Investopedia (www.investopedia.com ) Let's start : Simply : KST : Above point 0 means long position (positive zone), below point 0 (negative zone) means short position. I liked this indicator more than RSI because we can evaluate the breaking points of the channels we draw on the indicator according to the regions. Plus area (positive area), breaking the channel upwards may indicate a very strong rise, and minus area (negative area) the channel downwards may indicate a very strong fall. As a person who is very keen to identify major trends in advance, I like the KST indicator to approach the target quickly and simply. I also find it very successful in terms of divergences. CAUTION : This indicator has been written before many times on TV. I have no effort on it. I saved loads only for variable periods. But I have enough experience to say that you are successful in trends with KST . Nevertheless, do not use it alone, as other promoters may benefit. For example , I divided the standard periods into 4 as in the script. With a correct adaptive period, it has the potential to contribute greatly to accurate moves! You can use with mutable variable periods. Abundant trend lines can be drawn on the indicator and divergences between price and indicator can be sought. Best regards!
Pine Script® indicator
by Noldo
4
Net XRP Margin PositionTotal XRP Longs minus XRP Shorts in order to give you the total outstanding XRP margin debt. ie: If 500,000 XRP has been longed, and 400,000 XRP has been shorted, then 500,000 has been bought, and 400,000 sold, leaving us with 100,000 XRP (net) remaining to be sold to give us an overall neutral margin position. That isn't to say that the net margin position must move towards zero, but it is a sensible reference point, and historical net values may provide useful insights into the current circumstances.
Pine Script® indicator
by Aegist
1
Net DASH Margin PositionTotal DASH Longs minus DASH Shorts in order to give you the total outstanding DASH margin debt. ie: If 500,000 DASH has been longed, and 400,000 DASH has been shorted, then 500,000 has been bought, and 400,000 sold, leaving us with 100,000 DASH (net) remaining to be sold to give us an overall neutral margin position. That isn't to say that the net margin position must move towards zero, but it is a sensible reference point, and historical net values may provide useful insights into the current circumstances. (Anyone know what category this script should be in?)
Pine Script® indicator
by Aegist
Net EOS Margin PositionTotal EOS Longs minus EOS Shorts in order to give you the total outstanding EOS margin debt. ie: If 5,000,000 EOS has been longed, and 4,000,000 EOS has been shorted, then 5,000,000 has been bought, and 4,000,000 sold, leaving us with 1,000,000 EOS (net) remaining to be sold to give us an overall neutral margin position. That isn't to say that the net margin position must move towards zero, but it is a sensible reference point, and historical net values may provide useful insights into the current circumstances. (Anyone know what category this script should be in?)
Pine Script® indicator
by Aegist
Net XMR Margin PositionTotal XMR Longs minus XMR Shorts in order to give you the total outstanding XMR margin debt. ie: If 50,000 XMR has been longed, and 40,000 XMR has been shorted, then 50,000 has been bought, and 40,000 sold, leaving us with 10,000 XMR (net) remaining to be sold to give us an overall neutral margin position. That isn't to say that the net margin position must move towards zero, but it is a sensible reference point, and historical net values may provide useful insights into the current circumstances.
Pine Script® indicator
by Aegist
Net NEO Margin PositionTotal NEO Longs minus NEO Shorts in order to give you the total outstanding NEO margin debt. ie: If 500,000 NEO has been longed, and 400,000 NEO has been shorted, then 500,000 has been bought, and 400,000 sold, leaving us with 100,000 NEO (net) remaining to be sold to give us an overall neutral margin position. That isn't to say that the net margin position must move towards zero, but it is a sensible reference point, and historical net values may provide useful insights into the current circumstances. (Anyone know what category this script should be in?)
Pine Script® indicator
by Aegist
Net BTC Margin PositionTotal BTCUSDLONGS minus the BTCUSDSHORTS in order to give you the total outstanding BTC margin debt. ie: If there are 50,000 BTC longs, and 40,000 BTC shorts, then 50,000 has been bought, and 40,000 sold, leaving us with 10,000 BTC net remaining to be sold to give us an overall neutral margin position. That isn't to say that the net margin position must move towards zero, but it is a sensible reference point, and historical net values may provide useful insights into the current circumstances. (Anyone know what category this script should be in?)
Pine Script® indicator
by Aegist
KST Multi-TimeframeDeveloped by Martin Pring, Know Sure Thing (KST) is a momentum oscillator based on the smoothed rate-of-change for four different timeframes. KST fluctuates above/below the zero line. At its most basic, momentum favors the bulls when KST is positive and the bears when KST is negative. Even though there are many different signals possible with KST, the basic centerline and signal line crossovers are usually the most robust. Unlike RSI and the Stochastic Oscillator, KST does not have upper or lower limits. This makes it relatively ill-suited for overbought and oversold signals. I added the possibility to add on the chart a 2nd timeframe for confirmation. If you found this script useful, a tip is always welcome... :)
Pine Script® indicator
by KenLeShim
10