MayerMultiple Price BBThis charts an indicator created by Trace Mayer with some extras.
Plots:
- Mayer Multiple (may be hard to notice, since it overlays by default and stay at the bottom...)
- Price adjusted by Mayer Multiple Average with Bollinger Bands
Moving Average Function can be selected from a list with standard functions and following experimental extras:
- Volume Weighted Exponential Moving Average
- Volume Weighted Time Decayed Moving Average // similar to vwema, but alpha is calculated from length as half-life decay function (not sure if I got that right...)
Default MA function is sma, to keep it true to the original MM indicator, but I think VWEMA and VWTDMA may perform better with exponential nature of Bitcoin .
Suggestions and bug reports are welcome =)
MAYERMULTIPLE
Mayer Multiple v2.0 - Klahr ThresholdThis is a simple update to the Mayer Multiple script by Unbound , which charts an indicator created by Trace Mayer and popularized by Preston Pysh.
The original post identified any price below 2.4x the 100-day MA as the BTC buy threshold. While the logic there is historically sound, it does not account for the fact that the BTC trend is parabolic in nature. With that in mind, I've attempted to update the 2.4x multiple to react based on the moving average of the Mayer Multiple itself. To do so, I simply found the number that, when added to the MM moving average, historically hit the 2.4x multiple during periods of low volatility. This turns out to be 1.17.
The green line represents the Klahr Threshold (is it obnoxious if I call it that? I've always wanted an indicator named after me). As you can see from the above chart, it hovers around 2.4x in late 2012 to early 2013, rises above it until mid 2014, and then stays below until 2016. It then stays almost exactly at 2.4x until April 2017, when it rises significantly above it for the first time since July 2014. The convergence in late 2012 and 2016-2017 is what leads me to believe that this should be the basis for the updated threshold.
It's entirely possible that there's a more robust method of calculating a reactive threshold (or a different number that should be added to the multiple's MA), but I think this is a good first step in refining the multiple to withstand the test of time.
Mayer MultipleFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the Mayer multiple by calculating the ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. It also plots the moving average of ratio itself.
Mayer Multiple Buy PriceFollowing Preston Pysh's "Bitcoin Mayer Multiple" study, I made this simple script to plot the recommended buy price based on the calculated 2.4x ratio between bitcoin price and its 200-day moving average. The ratio and SMA length have default values of 2.4 and 200 and can be adjusted.
