Chuck Dukas Market Phases of Trends (based on 2 Moving Averages)This script is based on the article “Defining The Bull And The Bear” by Chuck Duckas, published in Stocks & Commodities V. 25:13 (14-22); (S&C Bonus Issue, 2007).
The article “Defining The Bull And The Bear” discusses the concepts of “bullish” and “bearish” in relation to the price behavior of financial instruments. Chuck Dukas explains the importance of analyzing price trends and provides a framework for categorizing price activity into six phases. These phases, including recovery, accumulation, bullish, warning, distribution, and bearish, help to assess the quality of the price structure and guide decision-making in trading. Moving averages are used as tools for determining the context preceding the current price action, and the slope of a moving average is seen as an indicator of trend and price phase analysis.
The six phases of trends
// Definitions of Market Phases
recovery_phase = src > ma050 and src < ma200 and ma050 < ma200 // color: blue
accumulation_phase = src > ma050 and src > ma200 and ma050 < ma200 // color: purple
bullish_phase = src > ma050 and src > ma200 and ma050 > ma200 // color: green
warning_phase = src < ma050 and src > ma200 and ma050 > ma200 // color: yellow
distribution_phase = src < ma050 and src < ma200 and ma050 > ma200 // color: orange
bearish_phase = src < ma050 and src < ma200 and ma050 < ma200 // color red
Recovery Phase : This phase marks the beginning of a new trend after a period of consolidation or downtrend. It is characterized by the gradual increase in prices as the market starts to recover from previous losses.
Accumulation Phase : In this phase, the market continues to build a base as prices stabilize before making a significant move. It is a period of consolidation where buying and selling are balanced.
Bullish Phase : The bullish phase indicates a strong upward trend in prices with higher highs and higher lows. It is a period of optimism and positive sentiment in the market.
Warning Phase : This phase occurs when the bullish trend starts to show signs of weakness or exhaustion. It serves as a cautionary signal to traders and investors that a potential reversal or correction may be imminent.
Distribution Phase : The distribution phase is characterized by the market topping out as selling pressure increases. It is a period where supply exceeds demand, leading to a potential shift in trend direction.
Bearish Phase : The bearish phase signifies a strong downward trend in prices with lower lows and lower highs. It is a period of pessimism and negative sentiment in the market.
These rules of the six phases outline the cyclical nature of market trends and provide traders with a framework for understanding and analyzing price behavior to make informed trading decisions based on the current market phase.
60-period channel
The 60-period channel should be applied differently in each phase of the market cycle.
Recovery Phase : In this phase, the 60-period channel can help identify the beginning of a potential uptrend as price stabilizes or improves. Traders can look for new highs frequently in the 60-period channel to confirm the trend initiation or continuation.
Accumulation Phase : During the accumulation phase, the 60-period channel can highlight that the current price is sufficiently strong to be above recent price and longer-term price. Traders may observe new highs frequently in the 60-period channel as the slope of the 50-period moving average (SMA) trends upwards while the 200-period moving average (SMA) slope is losing its downward slope.
Bullish Phase : In the bullish phase, the 60-period channel showing a series of higher highs is crucial for confirming the uptrend. Additionally, traders should observe an upward-sloping 50-period SMA above an upward-sloping 200-period SMA for further validation of the bullish phase.
Warning Phase : When in the warning phase, the 60-period channel can provide insights into whether the current price is weaker than recent prices. Traders should pay attention to the relationship between the price close, the 50-period SMA, and the 200-period SMA to gauge the strength of the phase.
Distribution Phase : In the distribution phase, traders should look for new lows frequently in the 60-period channel, hinting at a weakening trend. It is crucial to observe that the 50-period SMA is still above the 200-period SMA in this phase.
Bearish Phase : Lastly, in the bearish phase, the 60-period channel reflecting a series of lower lows confirms the downtrend. Traders should also note that the price close is below both the 50-period SMA and the 200-period SMA, with the relationship of the 50-period SMA being less than the 200-period SMA.
By carefully analyzing the 60-period channel in each phase, traders can better understand market trends and make informed decisions regarding their investments.
Moving_average_crossover
MTF MAs and Crosses Nexus [DarkWaveAlgo]🧾 Description:
A nexus is a connection, link, or neuronal junction where signals and information are transmitted between different elements.
The MTF MAs and Crosses Nexus indicator serves as a nexus between MTF Moving Averages by facilitating the visualization and interaction of up to eight multi-timeframe moving averages, each with its own customizable timeframe, period, cross-over and cross-under alerts and plot markers, moving average calculation type, and price source.
It acts as a utility/control center that brings together multiple MTF moving averages (MTF MAs) and allows you to visualize the interactions between them with exceptional ease-of-use and customizability, helping to provide you with valuable insights into potential trend reversals, momentum shifts, and trading opportunities.
💡 Originality and Usefulness:
While there are other multi-timeframe moving average indicators available, MTF MAs and Crosses Nexus' customizable alert and signal settings offer intra-indicator MTF moving average cross markers and alerts not seen in other MTF MA indicators, allowing you to visualize the cross-over and cross-under relationships between the indicator's MAs with an 'all-in-one' experience. We also believe it stands above the rest with its sheer quantity and quality of settings, features, and usability.
✔️ Re-Published to Avoid Misleading Values
This script has been re-published to ensure that it does not use `request.security()` calls using lookahead_on to access future data when referencing moving averages from other timeframes. This decreases the likelihood that the indicator will provide deceiving values. This change has been made in accordance with the PineScript documentation: "Using barmerge.lookahead_on at timeframes higher than the chart's without offsetting the `expression` argument like in `close ` will introduce future leak in scripts, as the function will then return the `close` price before it is actually known in the current context" and the Publishing Rule: "Do not use `request.security()` calls using lookahead to access future data".
💠 Features:
8 toggleable MTF Moving Averages with customizable timeframes, periods, moving average calculation types, and price sources
Customizable cross-over and cross-under alert and chart signal options for each MTF MA (toggleable cross alerts and signals for crosses between intra-indicator MAs and bar price values)
Aesthetic and flexible coloring and color theme styling options
End-of chart labels and options for ease-of-use and legibility
⚙️ Settings:
Use a Color Theme: When this setting is enabled, all manual 'Bullish and Bearish Colors' are overridden. All plots will use the colors from your selected Color Theme - excepting those plots set to use the 'Single Color' coloring method.
Color Theme: When 'Use a Color Theme' is enabled, this setting allows you to select the color theme you wish to use.
Hide MAs on Timeframes Lower Than the Chart: When this setting is enabled, any MTF MA with a timeframe smaller than that of the chart the indicator is applied to will be hidden from view.
Enable: Show/hide a specific MTF MA.
Timeframe: Set the timeframe for a specific MTF MA.
Period: Set the lookback period for a specific MTF MA.
Type: Set the calculation type for a specific MTF MA. Options include: Exponential, Simple, Weighted, Volume-Weighted, and Hull.
Source Price: Set the source value used for a specific MTF MA's calculation.
Enable Cross Over Signals & Alerts: When enabled, cross-over chart signals (markers) and alerts are enabled for when this specific MTF MA crosses above its respective 'Cross Over Cross Source'.
Enable Cross Under Signals & Alerts: When enabled, cross-under chart signals (markers) and alerts are enabled for when this specific MTF MA crosses below its respective 'Cross Under Cross Source'.
Cross Source: Set the target plot which this specific MTF MA must cross (for either a cross-over or cross-under event) to trigger a chart signal and alert.
Marker Position: Set the position where this specific MTF MA's cross chart signal should appear. Options include: Above Bar, Below Bar, and On MA Line.
Coloring Method: Set the coloring method for this specific MA. The coloring method defines how the MA should be dynamically colored. Options include: Single Color, Increasing/Decreasing, and Over/Under Price.
Bullish Color: When 'Use a Color Theme' is disabled, this will set the 'bullish color' for this specific MTF MA.
Bearish Color: When 'Use a Color Theme' is disabled, this will set the 'bearish color' for this specific MTF MA.
Single Color: When the 'Coloring Method' is set to Single Color for this specific MA, this color option will set the MA's color.
Enable Label: When enabled, a label will show at the end of the chart displaying the timeframe, period, MA type, and current price value of this specific MTF MA.
Size: Sets the font size of this specific MTF MA's label.
Label Offset (in Bars): Sets the distance from the latest bar, in bars, at which this specific MTF MA's label is displayed.
Show Label Line: When enabled, this specific MTF MA's label will be accommodated by a dashed line connecting it to its plot.
📈 Chart:
The chart shown in this original publication displays the 15 minute chart on BTCUSDT. Displayed on the chart are 4 MTF MAs: the 15m 20 WMA, 30m 100 EMA, 1h 11 EMA, and 1D 7 VWMA - offering an exemplary view of how you can use these MTF MAs and crosses to your advantage in gauging trend relationships across multiple timeframes.
