Randomness — Indicators and Strategies

Random Price Action Visible Chart plots randomly generated price (closing basis) from LHS of the chart. Re-plots each time you scroll -just a curiosity really; perhaps a lesson in seeing patterns where there are none; 'fooled by randomness' etc. -always anchors/starts from the real close of the asset on the visible Left hand side of the chart. -adjust ATR as you like (bigger = probably more reliable/realistic). -adjust ATRmultiple as you like (discretionary; basically how many ATR ranges above/below last bar's random close, will the maximum random value above/below be; default is 1.5x (arbitrary).

Random Entries Work!" tHe MaRkEtS aRe RaNdOm ", say moron academics. The purpose of this study is to show that most markets are NOT random! Most markets show a clear bias where we can make such easy money, that a random number generator can do it. === HOW THE INDICATOR WORKS === The study will randomly enter the market The study will randomly exit the market if in a trade You can choose a Long Only, Short Only, or Bidirectional strategy === DEFAULT VALUES AND THEIR LOGIC === Percent Chance to Enter Per Bar: 10% Percent Chance to Exit Per Bar: 3% Direction: Long Only Commission: 0 Each bar has a 10% chance to enter the market. Each bar has a 3% to exit the market . It will only enter long. I included zero commission for simplification. It's a good exercise to include a commission/slippage to see just how much trading fees take from you. === TIPS === Increasing "Percent Chance to Exit" will shorten the time in a trade. You can see the "Avg # Bars In Trade" go down as you increase. If "Percent Chance to Exit" is too high, the study won't be in the market long enough to catch any movement, possibly exiting on the same bar most of the time. If you're getting the red screen, that means the strategy lost so much money it went broke. Try reducing the percent equity on the Properties tab. Switch the start year to avoid/minimize black swan events like the covid drop in 2020. === FINDINGS === Most markets lose money with a "Random" direction strategy. Most markets lose ALL money with a "Short Only" strategy. Most markets make money with a "Long Only" strategy. Try this strategy on: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the NASDAQ (QQQ). There are two popular memes right now: "Bitcoin to the moon" and "Stocks only go up". Both are seemingly true. Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the 2010's, gaining several billion percent in gains. The stock market is on a 100 year long uptrend. Why? BECAUSE FIAT CURRENCIES ALWAYS GO DOWN! This is inflation. If we measure the market in terms of others assets instead of fiat, the Long Only strategy doesn't work anymore (or works less well). Try this strategy on: Bitcoin/GLD (BTCUSD/GLD), the Eurodollar (EURUSD), and the S&P 500 measured in gold (SPY/GLD). Bitcoin measured in gold (BTCUSD/GLD) still works with a Long Only strategy because Bitcoin increased in value over both USD and gold. The Eurodollar (EURUSD) generally loses money no matter what, especially if you add any commission. This makes sense as they are both fiat currencies with similar inflation schedules. Gold and the S&P 500 have gained roughly the same amount since ~2000. Some years will show better results for a long strategy, while others will favor a short strategy. Now look at just SPY or GLD (which are both measured in USD by default!) and you'll see the same trend again: a Long Only strategy crushes even when entering and exiting randomly. === " JUST TELL ME WHAT TO DO, YOU NERD! " === Bulls always win and Bears always lose because fiat currencies go to zero. You're not underperforming a random number generator, are you?

Pseudo-Random Number Generators via Pine Script These are my "Pseudo-Random Number Generators via Pine Script", having uniform distribution between 0 and 1. In my quest for sequential pseudo-random numbers in Pine, tinkering with mathematical chaos, I have come up with these three simple yet handy generators. I believe these may be useful in the future by developers of the Tradingview community. NOTICE: Use it as you please, this is free code to implement into your new Pine projects. You don't have to ask for my permission to reuse these functions in your published scripts, simply because I have better things to do than answer requests for the reuse of these simplistic PRNG functions. I don't require accreditation for members to reuse these functions either. I simply don't want any credit. I only require that you respectfully put it to "good and proper use" complimenting the elaborate script you have in mind. I would however like to see some great ideas utilizing these when I randomly and accidentally come across them in the public library. I didn't know where to put this script, so I just tossed it into the "Trend Analysis" category. The comments section below is solely just for commenting and other remarks, ideas, compliments, etc... regarding only this indicator, not others. When available time provides itself, I will consider your inquiries, thoughts, and concepts presented below in the comments section, should you have any questions or comments regarding this indicator. When my indicators achieve more prevalent use by TV members, I may implement more ideas when they present themselves as worthy additions. As always, "Like" it if you simply just like it with a proper thumbs up, and also return to my scripts list occasionally for additional postings. Have a profitable future everyone!