Ripple (XRP) Model PriceAn article titled Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Model was published in March 2019 by "PlanB" with mathematical model used to calculate Bitcoin model price during the time. We know that Ripple has a strong correlation with Bitcoin. But does this correlation have a definite rule?
In this study, we examine the relationship between bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and the ripple(XRP) price.
The Halving and the stock-to-flow ratio
Stock-to-flow is defined as a relationship between production and current stock that is out there.
SF = stock / flow
The term "halving" as it relates to Bitcoin has to do with how many Bitcoin tokens are found in a newly created block. Back in 2009, when Bitcoin launched, each block contained 50 BTC, but this amount was set to be reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks (about 4 years). Today, there have been three halving events, and a block now only contains 6.25 BTC. When the next halving occurs, a block will only contain 3.125 BTC. Halving events will continue until the reward for minors reaches 0 BTC.
With each halving, the stock-to-flow ratio increased and Bitcoin experienced a huge bull market that absolutely crushed its previous all-time high. But what exactly does this affect the price of Ripple?
Price Model
I have used Bitcoin's stock-to-flow ratio and Ripple's price data from April 1, 2014 to November 3, 2021 (Daily Close-Price) as the statistical population.
Then I used linear regression to determine the relationship between the natural logarithm of the Ripple price and the natural logarithm of the Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF).
You can see the results in the image below:
Basic Equation : ln(Model Price) = 3.2977 * ln(BSF) - 12.13
The high R-Squared value (R2 = 0.83) indicates a large positive linear association.
Then I "winsorized" the statistical data to limit extreme values to reduce the effect of possibly spurious outliers (This process affected less than 4.5% of the total price data).
ln(Model Price) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214
If we raise the both sides of the equation to the power of e, we will have:
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Final Equation:
■ Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * BSF ^ 3.3297
Where BSF is Bitcoin's stock-to-flow
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If we put current Bitcoin's stock-to-flow value (54.2) into this equation we get value of 2.95USD. This is the price which is indicated by the model.
There is a power law relationship between the market price and Bitcoin's stock-to-flow (BSF). Power laws are interesting because they reveal an underlying regularity in the properties of seemingly random complex systems.
I plotted XRP model price (black) over time on the chart.
Estimating the range of price movements
I also used several bands to estimate the range of price movements and used the residual standard deviation to determine the equation for those bands.
Residual STDEV = 0.82188
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) - 12.214 + Residual STDEV =>
ln(First-Upper-Band) = 3.3297 * ln(BSF) – 11.392 =>
■ First-Upper-Band = Exp(-11.392) * BSF ^ 3.3297
In the same way:
■ First-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.036) * BSF ^ 3.3297
I also used twice the residual standard deviation to define two extra bands:
■ Second-Upper-Band = Exp(-10.570) * BSF ^ 3.3297
■ Second-Lower-Band = Exp(-13.858) * BSF ^ 3.3297
These bands can be used to determine overbought and oversold levels.
Estimating of the future price movements
Because we know that every four years the stock-to-flow ratio, or current circulation relative to new supply, doubles, this metric can be plotted into the future.
At the time of the next halving event, Bitcoins will be produced at a rate of 450 BTC / day. There will be around 19,900,000 coins in circulation by August 2025
It is estimated that during first year of Bitcoin (2009) Satoshi Nakamoto (Bitcoin creator) mined around 1 million Bitcoins and did not move them until today. It can be debated if those coins might be lost or Satoshi is just waiting still to sell them but the fact is that they are not moving at all ever since. We simply decrease stock amount for 1 million BTC so stock to flow value would be:
BSF = (19,900,000 – 1.000.000) / (450 * 365) =115.07
Thus, Bitcoin's stock-to-flow will increase to around 115 until AUG 2025. If we put this number in the equation:
Model Price = Exp(- 12.214) * 114 ^ 3.3297 = 36.06$
Ripple has a fixed supply rate. In AUG 2025, the total number of coins in circulation will be about 56,000,000,000. According to the equation, Ripple's market cap will reach $2 trillion.
Note that these studies have been conducted only to better understand price movements and are not a financial advice.
Ripple
USDT SupplyThis script shows the USDT (Tether) supply, total USDT market capitalization and USDT supply on various Cryptocurrency exchanges.
It is based on this script:
Changes:
- added HiTBTC and Huobi exchange
- updated to Pine Script v4
- improved default style and line width to highlight global USDT plots against exchange-specific plot lines
EVWMA VWAP MACD Strategy [QuantNomad]Based on comment of @coondawg71 I tried to compare VWAP and EVWMA.
Both are sort of moving averages so I decided to create a MACD based on these 2 indicators.
In parameters you can set EVWMA Length and 2 smoothing lengths for "macd" and "signal".
Strategy seems to work pretty good at 2h-8h timeframes for crypto.
What do you thing about it?
On Balance Volume Oscillator Strategy [QuantNomad]Looking for the way to use OBV Oscillator in a strategy.
Here is my first try. I just enter to position of a cross of 2 emas based on OBV.
Here is my original oscillator indicator:
XRPUSD LONG/SHORT RATIO BITFINEXXRP longs and shorts on finex.
Red line -> Shorts
Green line -> Longs
Area -> Longs/Shorts normalized.
True Price XRPArbitrage is the simultaneous purchase and sale of an asset to profit from a difference in the price. It is a trade that profits by exploiting the price differences of identical or similar financial instruments on different markets or in different forms.
In cryptocurrencies, arbitrage is difficult - if not impossible to profit from due to the large transaction costs of buying and sell on the different exchanges.
Some exchanges have fees in excess of 3%. This means that the difference in price between exchanges would have to be greater than the transaction cost in order to profit.
This also does not take into account the risk of price movement in the time it would take to transfer funds between exchanges, making the ability to profit from arbitrage impossible for the retail investor.
While "arbitrage" may be intuitively associated with "sabotage" to the uninformed, the occurence is not a result of greedy price manipulation. The difference in price between exchanges can be simply justified by the separation of market depth creating an indipendantly operating order book.
Essentially, this is an individually performing market with a unique price spread.
In order to determine the most visually accurate price, I have averaged the asking price of these six exchanges:
1. KRAKEN
2. BITSTAMP
3. BITFINEX
4. BITTREX
5. POLONIEX
6. BITSO
This plotted line can be overlayed on top of any XRP/USD price from any given exchange in order to view the variance from the average in real-time, or you can hide the underlying chart to view only the average of the six exchanges as demonstrated in the chart above.
Find this in the public indicator library!
Like and follow for more great scripts.
