Kalman PredictorThe **Kalman Predictor** indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders looking to enhance their market analysis by smoothing price data and projecting future price movements. This script implements a Kalman filter, a statistical method for noise reduction, to dynamically estimate price trends and velocity. Combined with ATR-based confidence bands, it provides actionable insights into potential price movement, while offering clear trend and momentum visualization.
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#### **Key Features**:
1. **Kalman Filter Smoothing**:
- Dynamically estimates the current price state and velocity to filter out market noise.
- Projects three future price levels (`Next Bar`, `Next +2`, `Next +3`) based on velocity.
2. **Dynamic Confidence Bands**:
- Confidence bands are calculated using ATR (Average True Range) to reflect market volatility.
- Visualizes potential price deviation from projected levels.
3. **Trend Visualization**:
- Color-coded prediction dots:
- **Green**: Indicates an upward trend (positive velocity).
- **Red**: Indicates a downward trend (negative velocity).
- Dynamically updated label displaying the current trend and velocity value.
4. **User Customization**:
- Inputs to adjust the process and measurement noise for the Kalman filter (`q` and `r`).
- Configurable ATR multiplier for confidence bands.
- Toggleable trend label with adjustable positioning.
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#### **How It Works**:
1. **Kalman Filter Core**:
- The Kalman filter continuously updates the estimated price state and velocity based on real-time price changes.
- Projections are based on the current price trend (velocity) and extend into the future (Next Bar, +2, +3).
2. **Confidence Bands**:
- Calculated using ATR to provide a dynamic range around the projected future prices.
- Indicates potential volatility and helps traders assess risk-reward scenarios.
3. **Trend Label**:
- Updates dynamically on the last bar to show:
- Current trend direction (Up/Down).
- Velocity value, providing insight into the expected magnitude of the price movement.
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#### **How to Use**:
- **Trend Analysis**:
- Observe the direction and spacing of the prediction dots relative to current candles.
- Larger spacing indicates a potential strong move, while clustering suggests consolidation.
- **Risk Management**:
- Use the confidence bands to gauge potential price volatility and set stop-loss or take-profit levels accordingly.
- **Pullback Detection**:
- Look for flattening or clustering of dots during trends as a signal of potential pullbacks or reversals.
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#### **Customizable Inputs**:
- **Kalman Filter Parameters**:
- `lookback`: Adjusts the smoothing window.
- `q`: Process noise (higher values make the filter more reactive to changes).
- `r`: Measurement noise (controls sensitivity to price deviations).
- **Confidence Bands**:
- `band_multiplier`: Multiplies ATR to define the range of confidence bands.
- **Visualization**:
- `show_label`: Option to toggle the trend label.
- `label_offset`: Adjusts the label’s distance from the price for better visibility.
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#### **Examples of Use**:
- **Scalping**: Use on lower timeframes (e.g., 1-minute, 5-minute) to detect short-term price trends and reversals.
- **Swing Trading**: Identify pullbacks or continuations on higher timeframes (e.g., 4-hour, daily) by observing the prediction dots and confidence bands.
- **Risk Assessment**: Confidence bands help visualize potential price volatility, aiding in the placement of stops and targets.
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#### **Notes for Traders**:
- The **Kalman Predictor** does not predict the future with certainty but provides a statistically informed estimate of price movement.
- Confidence bands are based on historical volatility and should be used as guidelines, not guarantees.
- Always combine this tool with other analysis techniques for optimal results.
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This script is open-source, and the Kalman filter logic has been implemented uniquely to integrate noise reduction with dynamic confidence band visualization. If you find this indicator useful, feel free to share your feedback and experiences!
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#### **Credits**:
This script was developed leveraging the statistical principles of Kalman filtering and is entirely original. It incorporates ATR for dynamic confidence band calculations to enhance trader usability and market adaptability.
Chande's TrendScore
Trend Scores + Volume-Weighted Trend ScoresHere is a simple indicator based on Tushar Chande's TrendScore .
The main purpose of the TrendScore is to determine the strength and direction of a trend, which it does by comparing the current price to the prices within a user-defined window of historical prices.
In the input menu, the user defines the starting and ending period. The current price is then compared to each historical price. If the current price is greater than the given historical price, then the TrendScore is incremented, while it is decremented if it is below the given historical price. TrendScore values fluctuate between a maximum of 100 and a minimum of -100, with 100 meaning that the current price is greater than each historical price in the window and a value of -100 meaning the inverse is true.
We then use the same process to calculate the volume trend score by passing in volume to the 'getTrendScore' function. Lastly, the indicator also also calculates a 'volume-weighted trend score'. This is simply the average of the price trend score and the volume trend score. It is not plotted by default, but users can set the input option to true in the input menu and it will be plotted as a yellow line (as seen in the bottom chart).
The Chart:
The trend scores for price are plotted as a histogram. We've summarized the meaning behind its color changes below:
-If ( trendScore == 100)
then color = dark green
-if ( trendScore < 100 and trendScore is increasing)
then color = light green
-if ( trendScore > 0 and trendScore is DECREASING)
then color = pink
-if ( trendScore < 0)
then color = red
The volume trend score is plotted as a blue line. We felt that using a similar coloring system for the volume trend scores would over-crowd the chart and take away from the simplicity that makes this indicator useful. The volume-weighted trend score is plotted as a yellow line.
The main price bars change color based on the price trend score to make the values easier to visualize as well.
Interpretation:
This is a pretty versatile indicator. We summarized the ways in which traders can use it:
-Enter Long Positions when the trend score crosses zero from negative to positive territory.
-Exit Long Positions when the trend score was previously 100 and begins decreasing (ie bar color changes from dark green to pink).
-Spot bearish divergences when price trend score is 100 or relatively high and the volume trend score decreases significantly.
-Identify bullish divergences when price trend score is relatively low and volume trend score is increasing.
~Happy Trading~
Trend Score by KIVANÇ fr3762Trend Score compares close prices between last close with previous closes by a certain period of time.
It's like momentum but gives a score +1 when close price is equal to or above (defaultly) 10 bars ago and gives a score of -1 when below.
calculation continues from default length to the 2 times of length.
Defaultly (for 10 bars length)
If Trend Score converges to 10; that means there's a strong uptrend
conversely if Trend Score converges to -10; that means a strong downtrend market is on.
