100% Win Rate on BTC & Alts! Where’s the Next Breakout?USDT Dominance Update:
While the herd chases the latest hype, we called this before it even unfolded. BTC’s recent surge was lightning-fast.
These were the trades shared in the last 30 days. I'm just saying we could've had more wins!
Our setups didn’t just hit targets…
They exploded through them 🚀
These are spot gains, imagine trading wth leverage with these.
There's more to come in the next week.
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✅ HOSE:VIC +50%
✅ $CHILLGUY +40%
✅ NASDAQ:HUMA +35%
✅ CRYPTOCAP:XRP +34%
✅ $VOXEL +32%
✅ OMXTSE:MAGIC +30%
✅ CRYPTOCAP:RENDER +25%
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✅ SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:FLOKI +25%
✅ CRYPTOCAP:LINK +17.65%
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✅ AMEX:MBOX +15%
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✅ TVC:MOVE +11.66%
✅ $EPT +11%
✅ BME:ETC +10.3%
✅ PSX:POL +20%
✅ CRYPTOCAP:SUI +20%
✅ LSE:ONDO +7.5%
✅ SET:PORT +6.17%
✅ CRYPTOCAP:TON +3%
📈 These aren’t just simple trades; they’re alpha-backed calls.
If you’re still watching from the sidelines…
You’re watching others print.
Be patient and precise with your entries and exits. Never FOMO.
The market will bait you into bad timing if you let it.
A 4.4% drop in USDT dominance marks the start of a new altcoin season, but remember, BTC will steer this cycle.
More setups on the way.
Stay tuned.
Do hit the like button and share your views in the comments.
Thank you
#PEACE
USDT.D trade ideas
Higher targets for BTC & AltsUSDT dominance is starting to drop, which usually means investors are moving money out of stablecoins and back into Bitcoin and altcoins. This shift often leads to rising prices across the market. If this trend continues, the first key zone to watch for USDT dominance is between 3.57 and 3.76 — a move toward that range could help fuel further growth in BTC and alts. Mini Altseason is already started and it is on its way to higher targets.
Defining the $BTC top with USDT.DWhy is USDT.D so important in defining a CRYPTOCAP:BTC top?
Because, when BTC is in price discovery, there is no previous price action to determine where we might expect a reaction based on price. Therefore, all we really have are fib extensions and speculation if we solely look at past CRYPTOCAP:BTC price. Fear not, USDT.D gives us previous dominance action to evaluate when the BTC price might react. This is because USDT.D is inversely correlated with CRYPTOCAP:BTC price. Evaluating the correlation of USDT.D and CRYPTOCAP:BTC price, I found that in the current cycle, the correlation is approximately a doubling of BTC price for every -3% drop in USDT.D.
IMPORTANT: Everything below is for speculative fun. I will be watching this play out as part of an overall strategy to define a cycle top, but would never think to use it to make any decision in my life, especially if I should do a destination or hometown wedding or what brand of salve to put on my hemorrhoids.
How can we use the USDT.D/ CRYPTOCAP:BTC correlation to help pick a top? Well, we can find demand zones and calculate how far away we are from them. I don't have previous demand zones on the chart, but they have worked in the past to predict a reaction. The demand zones are somewhat subjective, so you can should verify on your own, but there are a few main zones that I see and have marked in yellow. The top of the demand zones, along with the distance from the current USDT.D in parenthesis, are 3.1% (-1%), 2.8% (-1.5%), 1.8% (-2%), and 1.3% (-2.5%). Using these drops in USDT.D, we might see some intermediate tops around $130K, $150K, and $180K.
The cycle top might be around $196K if we get to the lowest demand zone plotted on the chart. Of course, there are more demand zones below that, but I have a hard time seeing USDT.D go below 1.3%.
I added the price path as an extra bit of intrigue. It will likely not play out as I have it drawn, but why post my ideas if I'm not going to climb out on a limb and see if the prediction plays out. That would be a move of a cowardly douche. And although I am a douche, I'm not a coward.
--Da_Prof
USDT Dominance Is Still Bearish (1D)This index is still bearish. It could either drop from here or turn bearish again after a pullback to a higher level.
The larger structure is bearish, and the price is breaking through structures in an attempt to reach the main demand zone. This bearish trend is expected to continue.
Let’s wait and see what happens.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
USDT Dominance Looks Really Bearish In Big TimeFrames (3D)Before anything else, pay close attention to the timeframe | it’s a high timeframe and will take time to play out.
From the point where we placed the red arrow on the chart, it seems that the correction of USDT dominance has begun on the higher timeframes.
After wave A completed, the price entered wave B, which formed a symmetrical pattern, followed by an X wave and then a triangle.
Now that the triangle appears to be complete, we seem to be in the bearish wave C of a larger degree.
It is expected that in the coming months, the price will reach the green zone.
Note that this is a high timeframe analysis, and the move will take time, with lots of fluctuations along the way.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
USDT DOMINANCE New Update (2H)This analysis is an update of the analysis you see in the "Related publications" section
According to the previous analysis, the price dropped nicely, which helped turn the market green.
Now the structure appears clearer, and we have a zigzag diamond pattern on the chart.
To complete wave F of this pattern, the price might move slightly higher toward the areas marked with yellow circles.
The price still hasn't reached the strong support zone and remains at a distance from it.
Let’s wait and see what happens.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
USDT DOMINANCE Huge Crash incoming? Everyone seems to be ignoring the breakdown of the rising wedge on the weekly timeframe of USDT dominance. While many are clinging to small hopes of Bitcoin reaching new highs—some targeting $130K, others $150K—they’re overlooking a major pattern that could flip the entire game.
Just think for a moment: if this pattern plays out and USDT dominance hits its target, it could drop all the way down to 1. 5% to 2%. When that happens, imagine where Bitcoin's price could go. The upside potential is massive.
You can exit at 2% for safe side.
Nothing in trading is ever 100% certain—anything is possible—but this is a scenario that most people are missing. And if it does unfold, it could trigger a supercycle and potentially the biggest blow-off top in Bitcoin’s history.
Keep this possibility in mind. Watch closely. The chances of this playing out are high.
Bearish Breakdown in USDT Dominance - Altseason Loading?The chart shows a clear long-term descending trendline acting as resistance since mid-2023. After multiple failed attempts to break this trendline, USDT dominance has broken below a key horizontal support around ~4.35% on strong bearish momentum.
- Weekly close below the ~4.35% horizontal support.
Next key support zone: ~3.65–3.70% (marked by previous 2023 lows).
- Strong bearish engulfing candle confirming breakdown.
- Bearish continuation expected if dominance remains below 4.35%.
Further drop of the usdt dominance will start the altseason
Cheers
GreenCrypto
USDT Dominance $USDT.D – Channel Breakout in Action!!USDT.D has officially broken out of the descending channel, indicating a potential shift in momentum.
Key Points:
- LTF bullish divergence supported the recent push.
- Price is now testing the breakout level with potential to move higher.
- Next key resistance levels are marked at 4.85%, 5.23%
Both levels align with Fibonacci retracement zones, adding to their importance.
If this move sustains, we might see temporary pressure on alts due to increased USDT strength.
However, if price fails to hold above the channel and confirms a deviation, alts may resume dominance.
Weekly close remains key — it will either validate this breakout or trap the breakout traders.
USDT dominance showing a clear path- for more than a year now "price" has been stuck in a giant range (yellow boxes)
- with the latest development (being a breakdown from an ascending broadening wedge) it is likely this "asset" trades back to range lows which should result in overall crypto upside
- if hit, I expect range lows will offer temporary support (implying the crypto market stalls and goes down into a corrective period)
- that said, once/if that USDT. D support breaks, the entire crypto market is going to absolutely explode to the upside and at that point I would expect for Bitcoin to put in its cycle top (likely around October, November period)
USDT.D — 1W FVG Test & RSI Bull Div | Caution for RiskUSDT Dominance is testing a major 1W FVG support area while developing bullish divergences on the 4H RSI. Although a short-term bounce and market correction are likely, the overall bullish trend in BTC means a sharp reversal is not guaranteed. Risk management is a priority here — no high-risk positions until the RSI resets and market context is clearer.
1W FVG support + 4H RSI bull div
Bounce likely = correction on risk assets
RSI needs reset to 50 before reassessing
If lost — risk-off, possible slice down
Reasoning: Support + momentum, but trend is bullish — not risking gains here
Market Might Go Sideways or Slightly Correct📊 Market Might Go Sideways or Slightly Correct
Since BTC has hit its first target and USDT.D has reached a key support level, I expect the market to range for a while or correct down to around 4.67% on USDT.D.
At this point, USDT.D matters more than BTC.D for me — because BTC dominance hasn’t broken down yet.
So for now, I take confirmation for entries mainly from USDT.D.
Once BTC.D starts dropping, I’ll pay less attention to USDT.D — because that’s when whales start rotating profits from BTC into altcoins. You can see this shift reflected in BTC.D, and at that stage, USDT.D might not show strong moves anymore, since money is flowing within crypto — not out of it.
🛑 Support around 4.36% on USDT.D might get broken sharply.
So don’t forget to place your stop-buy orders after a range or pullback.
⚠️ Don’t get caught in the correction — and avoid shorting against Bitcoin’s trend.
If you’re already in a long, take some profit now.
USDT Dominance Forming Bullish Divergence | Altcoins May Retest 📉 USDT Dominance (4H):
Currently forming a bullish divergence with RSI, supported by a falling wedge structure. Price is respecting a clear supply OB (resistance zone) and might retest the 4.55% level.
🔁 Historically, a rise in USDT.D signals short-term corrections in BTC and altcoins, creating opportunities for OB/supply fills and long setups.
📊 This could be the retest phase for major crypto assets before resuming upward momentum.
🧠 Use this phase wisely — it’s where strong setups begin to form.
July 2025 - Will Tether (USDT) decouple from its $1 peg in 2025?Firstly, it is not the intention of this post to spread FUD (Fear, uncertainty, & doubt), but rather a word of caution to all who use USDT. You should read this idea in conjunction with the recently published “ Is Alt season dead? - June 2025 ” idea, there’s a remarkable alignment between them, should you understand what the 6 week chart above is telling you.
The argument presented here is for a failed redemption request on the Tether network, ultimately resulting in the collapse of the Tether stable coin. The event is expected to occur during the month of September, which will be the expected end of the Bitcoin bull market.
Throughout the years freshly printed USDT has been the life blood of alt tokens, that’s a fact. As supply and dominance increase, so does the size of the alt token market (including Ethereum). Those two conditions are an undeniable fact, look left. Fresh USDT is the alt token traders drug, they're addicted. Jump down to Reason 3 for a detailed comparison.
We’re now heading into a period of time where the opposite appears to be unfolding, and no one is talking about it. No one. But more on that later. This is about Tether itself.
Whatever is about to happen to Tether, it will be a first in its near 11 year history. You only need look left to see, this time is very different from previous market cycles. In the near term (weeks ahead) a collapse in Tether dominance is likely to print. Ultimately this will be at first a good thing for the alt token market, at least that’s how it will be perceived, but afterwards..
If you’ve studied the $1 peg failure of Terra Luna’s stable coin, then you’re likely looking at USDT.d chart and wondering where you’ve seen this before. The Luna crypto network collapsed in what's considered the largest crypto crash ever, with an estimated $60 billion wipeout, life savings were lost, dreams crushed. Many lost a great deal of money they thought was safe. Could the same happen with Tether? And what could cause such an event?
Let’s explore this…
What is the Tether stable coin?
The core idea behind USDT is that each token is backed 1-to-1 by real U.S. dollar reserves. This is what's supposed to give a "stablecoin" its value, it should always be tradable with $1 USD. Unlike a bank, Tether does not create money, it digitises it, which is sort of how you use your debit card to make purchases every day. Real cash never touches your fingers, the only difference is the money in your bank is insured, protected by the government in the event of default, whereas your USDT.. it is a private company, if it fails, it’s gone.
Naturally Tether does not maintain a real cash equivalent for each USDT token in circulation, that would be impractical for a profit making business. Ironically, Tether is more liquid than most high street banks. And yet, there’s a growing risk ignored by the market. In fact, during research of this idea, it is surprising how far under the RADAR this risk has gone unnoticed. It is the same risk that allowed US Banks, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank to fail (chart at bottom of page, does it look familiar to above?).
The collapse - but how?
Reason 1 - BONDs, Precious metals, & Bitcoin market exposure…
Tether has become one of the largest holders of US Treasury bills globally. Reports indicate that exposure to US Treasuries (direct and indirect, via money market funds and reverse repo agreements) has approached or exceeded $120 billion as of Q1 2025. As a matter of fact it is said so on their own website.
In the last audit (March 2025) where it was recorded, a U.S. Treasury Bill exposure of $98.5b “with a residual average maturity of less than 90 days”, to use their own words.
Source :
In their own words “The breakdown of the reserve backing the fiat denominated Tether tokens in circulation is.. . “, the highlights:
A precious metal exposure @ $6.6 billion and spot Bitcoin reserves @ $7.6 billion and somehow secured loans of $8.8 billion (plot twist, Micro strategy! Or Strategy as they’ve now chosen to name themselves) and around $64 million in cash.
The total assets as reported tied up in various financial instruments: $149,274,515,988, with approximately 66% tied up in the Bond market (and let’s ignore both Bitcoin and Gold are at historic overbought levels, $13.2billion is at considerable exposure to volatility.)
Circulating tokens: 158.6 billion
$149,274,515,988 (Reserves) / 158,600,000,000 (Tokens) ≈ 0.9412 per token
At this moment in time should the market exercise a full redemption request (very unlikely), 94 cents is the best they could offer, which is I stress, better than most high street banks. However the argument is not the backing, it is the access to it. Just as with Silicon and Signature banks, Tether appears to have ample liquid assets, but can it access them when it needs to?
If Tether needs to increase its cash position to support the network with real cash during a sudden demand spike, treasuries must first be sold. You may have noticed, but right now buyers for US treasuries are not exactly lining up outside the door to offer America cash. You don’t want to be a large holder of US treasuries during a period of rapid falling demand.
90 day US Bond market is on the verge of collapse. Imagine one of the largest holders of 90 day treasuries at this juncture. Sell into strength, not collapse.
Reason 2 - Inability to meet redemption demands
Tether's peg relies entirely on the market's belief that 1 USDT can always be redeemed for $1 USD, regardless if the liquidity is there. This uncertainly ultimately caused Terra Luna’s stable coin to de-couple. Trust took years to build hours to lose.
If this belief falters, or if the mechanism for redemption breaks even if only for hours, the peg collapses. Bond market exposure introduces several pathways to this breakdown:
Liquidity Mismatch, the "Run on the Bank”:
The Problem: Bonds, even highly rated ones, are not instant cash. Selling large quantities of bonds takes time, and doing so quickly can depress their price, especially if the market for those specific bonds is thin or stressed.
Imagine a widespread loss of confidence in Tether (perhaps due to rumours, a major regulatory action, or a general crypto market crash). Millions or even billions of dollars worth of USDT holders rush to redeem their tokens for actual USD.
The de-peg: If Tether's $120 billion (or a significant portion) is tied up in bonds that cannot be sold quickly enough at their face value, Tether would be unable to meet all redemption requests promptly. This would lead to a backlog of redemptions.
As the market sees that Tether isn't honoring redemptions on demand, panic sets in. USDT holders would then try to sell their USDT on secondary markets (exchanges) for less than $1, accepting a discount just to get out. This is the decoupling.
Reason 3 - An important alignment with " Is Alt season dead? - June 2025 ” idea
Historically, the relationship between USDT dominance and alt token performance is often seen as inverse. Here's why:
USDT as a "Safe Haven" when the crypto market is in a risk off phase, or experiencing uncertainty, investors tend to move their capital into stable coins like USDT. This increases USDT dominance, as a larger percentage of the total crypto market cap is held in USDT. During such time alt coins often struggle as capital flows out of them.
Capital rotation into alt coins (aka alt season): Conversely, a decrease in USDT dominance is often interpreted as a bullish signal for alt coins. It suggests that capital is moving out of stable coins and into riskier assets, including Bitcoin and then alt coins, in search of higher returns. This period is often referred to as "alt season" where alt coins significantly outperform Bitcoin. (This worked well prior to the Bitcoin ETF as liquidity entered spot Bitcoin, which would then eventually turn to the alt token market. However in this cycle the liquidity is trapped inside ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds). But this dichotomy will not arrest the enthusiasm of rose tinted glasses wearing influencers.)
Is it that really true, a general fall in dominance is good for the alt token market?
An overlay of TOTAL2 (market capitalisation of all tokens except Bitcoin) on the chart of Tether Dominance since 2016 (below) reveals a contradiction to this popular belief that declining dominance benefits alt tokens.
The chart clearly shows that strong Tether dominance is necessary for strong alt token market performance, especially after each Halving (vertical yellow lines). Influencers throughout the space are now calling for amazing performance well into 2026, how can this be compatible with a clear trend reversal in USDT dominance?
6 week TOTAL2 compared with USDT dominance since 2016
Why is this change in Dominance a de-pegging risk?
Recall in reason 1 the Bond risk, the time it might take Tether to liquidate treasuries to service redemption requests (remember the business is operating with a small cash position as percentage of their market capital). Keep this number in mind. Now flip over to the “ Alt season dead? - June 2025 ” idea, notice the bear flag forecast? It calls for a correction of around $200 billion, returning the market to 2017 levels. A 50% correction across OTHERS, if into USDT, would demand the complete liquidation of Tethers Bond position. But why? In a word, contagion. Especially amongst DeFi protocols.
It is worth remembering the OTHERS market total ticker is limited to the top 125 tokens excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum, Tether, XRP, and BNB. The market will more than likely try to escape into USDT, but what if that is not possible? The supply of Tether tokens is finite. What if the supply is increased to service the sudden demand without the backing?
A loss of confidence. If USDT dominance collapses and alt coins fail, it could suggest a loss of confidence in Tether or stable coins in general.
A de-pegging event: A major de-pegging of USDT from the US dollar (i.e. USDT trading significantly below $1) would be a primary cause. This would erode trust in USDT as reliable store of value and a medium for trading, leading to a mass exodus.
Liquidity criss: USDT is the most widely used stablecoin for trading alt coins. If its dominance collapses due to a lack of trust, it would severely impact liquidity across the alt coin market.
Contagion effect: A collapse in USDT could trigger a wider contagion throughout the crypto system:
DeFi instability. Many DeFi protocols rely on stable coins as collateral, especially USDT. A USDT collapse would lead to liquidation events of a size never seen before in the alt token space.
Bitcoin as the “Ultimate safe haven”. I keep asking myself, where is the liquidity for Bitcoin’s final push to the $145-150k market top coming from? While Bitcoin is volatile as old wallets liquidate their positions at all time highs, in extreme crisis, Bitcoin is often seen as the last resort in crypto due to decentralised nature and first mover advantage.
Reason 4 - The chart
The chart informs us something no user of USDT should ignore. For the first time in its almost 11 year history, dominance has printed:
1. A post Halving dominance collapse. Look left.
2. Broken market structure.
3. A Death Cross (available across multiple time frames)
4. Failed legacy support since 2018.
5. A collection of bearish engulfing and Gravestone DOJI candles.
If an increasing USDT dominance has historically been positive for alt tokens, then a macro reversal implies something very bearish for the alt token market going forward.
Notice the marking for each 4 year cycle alt token end point? Make a note of that!
Ww
Signature Bank before collapse
$USDT Dominance CRYPTOCAP:USDT dominance just broke down from a key pattern, and that’s a big signal.
It means people are likely moving money out of stablecoins and back into altcoins and Bitcoin.
If this drop continues, we could see a strong altcoin rally soon.
Keep an eye on it, altseason might be around the corner.
DYOR. NFA
usdt.dHello friends (I haven't been watching the market for a long time because of a series of bad things that happened to me in the last year) Today I was watching the crypto market and I saw that Tether's dominance could move in this direction. I wanted to share with you and this is just my personal opinion. Good luck with the daily timeframe.
USDT DOMINANCE New Update (4H)By analyzing the chart, it becomes clear that the USDT dominance structure is bearish.
After the structural shift to a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows forming, it is expected that the price will drop to the main support zone in order to collect major orders from lower levels.
The price could drop from the current level or from the upper supply zone, which would signal a bullish move in the overall market.
The target is the green box.
A daily candle closing above the supply zone would invalidate this analysis.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
USDT Dominance Locked in Range – Altseason Not Ready Yet?USDT Dominance has been trading inside a wide sideways range for the last 567 days — bouncing between the 3.6% demand zone and the 6% supply zone.
The recent price action shows a rejection from the top of the range and now heading toward the mid or lower part of the channel. A minor trendline (in red) had shown some short-term support, but it looks weak now.
As long as this range holds, true altseason may remain on pause. The big move will come only when USDT.D breaks out or breaks down from this range.
Capital Flow Outlook – BTC Leads, Alts Await a SignalOver the past two quarters, Tether's (USDT) market cap has expanded by over 66%, rising from ~$95B in late 2024 to ~$159.5B by mid-July 2025. This confirms a strong capital injection into the crypto space — reminiscent of early bull market cycles.
But where that capital flows tells the deeper story:
USDT.D is in a clean downtrend, showing that capital is actively rotating out of stables — a risk-on signal.
BTC.D continues climbing, confirming Bitcoin as the primary recipient of inflows. While the current move hasn’t reached exhaustion, the nearest potential reversal point is the weekly volume imbalance at ~67.5%.
Should that level fail to trigger a reaction, the next major reversal zone lies near 73% — the last known macro ceiling for dominance.
ETH.D has shown a structural shift, bouncing from a key macro low with a clear Change in State of Delivery (CSD). A revisit to the April high around 8.55% is looking increasingly likely.
SOL.D is fighting for structure, having reacted to a mid-point imbalance situated in the discount zone. This positioning is favorable for buyers, but structurally it still leans toward sweeping the April low at 2.13% before a valid CSD can form.
---
🧠 Conclusion:
While capital is clearly flowing back into the market, Bitcoin remains the primary destination. Until we see:
A reaction or rejection at BTC.D reversal zones
ETH.D continuing upward toward prior range highs
And SOL.D confirming a structural shift from discount
...a full altseason expansion remains premature.
> The capital is here — but the rotation isn’t.
Altseason is still brewing — and could take the rest of the year to fully materialize.
— Silent Edge