Downloading...
Download
SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTSPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUSTSPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST

SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST

No trades
See on Supercharts
Overview Analysis Holdings News
Ideas
Discussions Technicals Seasonals Options

SPY trade ideas

Trading as a Probabilistic ProcessTrading as a Probabilistic Process As mentioned in the previous post , involvement in the market occurs for a wide range of reasons, which creates structural disorder. As a result, trading must be approached with the understanding that outcomes are variable. While a setup may reach a predefined target, it may also result in partial continuation, overextension, no follow-through, or immediate reversal. We trade based on known variables and informed expectations, but the outcome may still fall outside them. Therefore each individual trade should be viewed as a random outcome. A valid setup could lose; an invalid one could win. It is possible to follow every rule and still take a loss. It is equally possible to break all rules and still see profits. These inconsistencies can cluster into streaks, several wins or losses in a row, without indicating anything about the applied system. To navigate this, traders should think in terms of sample size. A single trade provides limited insight, relevant information only emerges over a sequence of outcomes. Probabilistic trading means acting on repeatable conditions that show positive expectancy over time, while accepting that the result of any individual trade is unknowable. Expected Value Expected value is a formula to measure the long-term performance of a trading system. It represents the average outcome per trade over time, factoring in both wins and losses: Expected Value = (Win Rate × Average Win) – (Loss Rate × Average Loss) This principle can be demonstrated through simulation. A basic system with a 50% win rate and a 1.1 to 1 reward-to-risk ratio was tested over 500 trades across 20 independent runs. Each run began with a $50,000 account and applied a fixed risk of $1000 per trade. The setup, rules, and parameters remained identical throughout; the only difference was the random sequence in which wins and losses occurred. While most runs clustered around a profitable outcome consistent with the positive expected value, several outliers demonstrated the impact of sequencing. When 250 trades had been done, one account was up more than 60% while another was down nearly 40%. In one run, the account more than doubled by the end of the 500 trades. In another, it failed to generate any meaningful profit across the entire sequence. These differences occurred not because of flaws in the system, but because of randomness in the order of outcomes. These are known as Monte Carlo simulations, a method used to estimate possible outcomes of a system by repeatedly running it through randomized sequences. The technique is applied in many fields to model uncertainty and variation. In trading, it can be used to observe how a strategy performs across different sequences of wins and losses, helping to understand the range of outcomes that may result from probability. You can experiment and run these simulations at stockleave.com/simulator . Trading System Variations Two different strategies can produce the same expected value, even if they operate on different terms. This is not a theoretical point, but a practical one that influences what kind of outcomes can be expected. For example, System A operates with a high win rate and a lower reward-to-risk ratio. It wins 70% of the time with a 0.5 R, while System B takes the opposite approach and wins 30% of the time with a 2.5 R. If the applied risk is $1,000, the following results appear: System A = (0.70 × 500) − (0.30 × 1,000) = 350 − 300 = $50 System B = (0.30 × 2,500) − (0.70 × 1,000) = 750 − 700 = $50 Both systems average a profit of $50 per trade, yet they are very different to trade and experience. Both are valid approaches if applied consistently. What matters is not the math alone, but whether the method can be executed consistently across the full range of outcomes. Let’s look a bit closer into the simulations and practical implications. The simulation above shows the higher winrate, lower reward system with an initial $100,000 balance, which made 50 independent runs of 1000 trades each. It produced an average final balance of $134,225. In terms of variance, the lowest final balance reached $99,500 while the best performer $164,000. Drawdowns remained modest, with an average of 7.67%, and only 5% of the runs ended below the initial $100,000 balance. This approach delivers more frequent rewards and a smoother equity curve, but requires strict control in terms of loss size. The simulation above shows the lower winrate, higher reward system with an initial $100,000 balance, which made 50 independent runs of 1000 trades each. It produced an average final balance of $132,175. The variance was wider, where some run ended near $86,500 and another moved past $175,000. The drawdowns were deeper and more volatile, with an average of 21%, with the worst at 45%. This approach encounters more frequent losses but has infrequent winners that provide the performance required. This approach requires patience and mental resilience to handle frequent losses. Practical Implications and Risk While these simulations are static and simplified compared to real-world trading, the principle remains applicable. These results reinforce the idea that trading outcomes must be viewed probabilistically. A reasonable system can produce a wide range of results in the short term. Without sufficient sample size and risk control, even a valid approach may fail to perform. The purpose is not to predict the outcome of one trade, but to manage risk in a way that allows the account to endure variance and let statistical edge develop over time. This randomness cannot be eliminated, but the impact can be controlled from position sizing. In case the size is too large, even a profitable system can be wiped out during an unfavorable sequence. This consideration is critical to survive long enough for the edge to express itself. This is also the reason to remain detached from individual trades. When a trade is invalidated or risk has been exceeded, it should be treated as complete. Each outcome is part of a larger sample. Performance can only be evaluated through cumulative data, not individual trades. The content in this post is extracted from the book The Art of Technical Trading by StockLeave for educational purposes.
AMEX:SPY
by StockLeave
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 22, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🚀 Tech & EV Stocks in Focus Ahead of Earnings Futures were quiet ahead of Tuesday’s open, but key movers included Astera Labs (+19%), Alphabet (+2.7%), Netflix +2%, and Robinhood –4.9% after being passed over for the S&P 500. Investors are positioning ahead of major tech and EV earnings this week — including Tesla, Alphabet, Lockheed Martin, Coca‑Cola, and Honeywell 📣 Powell Speech Eyed for Rate Clues Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 8:30 AM ET today at the Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference in D.C. Markets will be watching for any indications on future interest rate direction 🌏 Japan’s Political Shift Has Little Market Impact Japan’s ruling coalition lost its upper-house majority over the weekend, but markets remained stable as it was largely expected. The yen held steady, and Asian equities stayed calm amid the holiday—focus remains on upcoming corporate earnings 📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊 📅 Tuesday, July 22: 8:30 AM ET – Powell Speech: Key address at the bank regulation conference. Tone and forward guidance may sway bond and equity markets. After Market Close – Alphabet & Tesla Earnings: Heavyweights due today—market attention will track revenue guidance, especially on advertising, EV demand, and AI. ⚠️ Disclaimer: For educational and informational purposes only. Not financial advice—consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #tech #Fed #earnings #AI #infrastructure #volatility
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY Macro Wave Outlook – Bullish Fifth Wave into AI Supercy📈 SPY Macro Wave Outlook – Bullish Fifth Wave into AI Supercycle? 🧠 WaverVanir DSS | VolanX Protocol | Institutional AI Alignment The SPY rally appears to be unfolding within a 5-wave macro impulse, currently inside Wave (5) targeting the 670–787 zone, depending on macro alignment and Fed behavior. This structure converges with long-term Fibonacci clusters and macro transition signals. 🔍 Thesis: Wave (5) in Progress – Next resistance seen at ~670.33, followed by long-term targets near 787.19. Pullback Scenario – A temporary correction into the 597–600 range is possible before further upside. Structure Validity – Channel and Fibonacci extensions confirm bullish continuation unless macro conditions deteriorate sharply. 🧠 Macro Alignment Required: Fed Pivot Late 2025 → Probability: 60% Earnings Growth Led by AI → 11% projected for S&P500 (GS) Productivity > Consumption → AI-led industries showing 5%+ labor productivity growth (Dallas Fed) Low Inflation Reacceleration Risk → Core PCE stabilization key ⚠️ Risk Matrix: Macro Risk Probability Notes Fed Hawkish Reversal 30% Data-dependent but unlikely unless inflation re-flares AI Concentration Shock 25% Tech-heavy rally, breadth remains a concern Valuation Compression 20% Shiller CAPE near 37 Trade War Reignition 15% Tariff risk remains a geopolitical tail 🎯 Target Zones: Near-term: 670.33 (Wave 5 peak) Medium-term: 714–787 (Fib clusters) Correction Zone: 597–600, invalidation below 525 The AI economy is accelerating—productivity is now outpacing consumption in several sectors. This macro regime shift could be the foundation for the next secular bull wave. 🔺 Powered by VolanX Protocol ⚠️ Not financial advice. Educational chart generated by institutional DSS models. #SPY #VolanX #WaverVanir #ElliottWave #MacroTrading #AIProductivity #Fibonacci #FedPivot #USEquities #TradingSignals #SmartMoneyConcepts #InstitutionalStrategy #AIInvesting #SP500
AMEX:SPYLong
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
SPY Forming A Bearish Head and Shoulders PatternSPX Technical Update – Bearish Watch Chart Focus: S&P 500 Index (30-Min Chart) Date: July 21, 2025 🧠 Pattern Watch: Classic Head & Shoulders Formation A clear head and shoulders pattern has emerged on the short-term 30-minute chart, signaling a potential bearish reversal after the recent uptrend. Left Shoulder: Around 630.75 Head: Peaked near 633.00 Right Shoulder: Capped just under 631.00 Neckline: Sits near the 628.75–628.20 zone, marked by a yellow upward-sloping trendline and tested support. 📉 Bearish Breakdown in Play The price has now broken below the neckline zone at 628.75 with increasing volume — an early confirmation of a bearish break. The break beneath the rising wedge support and neckline suggests increased downside risk in the near term. 🧭 Technical Levels to Watch Key Level Type Action 633.00 Resistance (Head) Likely capped unless strong reversal 631.00 Resistance Right shoulder, overhead rejection 628.75 Neckline Support (Broken) Bearish trigger zone 628.20 Intraday support Final support test (now resistance) 625.50 Initial Target Breakdown projection 622.75 Lower Support Measured move target zone 📌 Measured Move Projection: A break of ~4.5 points from head to neckline projects a target near 624–625 in the near term. 📊 Volume Profile Note Volume expanded on the neckline break, supporting the validity of the pattern. Recent bars show a rise in selling pressure as bulls failed to reclaim above 630 after the breakdown. 🔍 Summary Outlook Bearish Bias: Valid while below 628.75 neckline resistance. Invalidation Zone: A sustained close above 631.00 would invalidate the bearish pattern. Watch for Retest: Any bounce into 628.75–629.25 could act as a retest and fade opportunity. 📆 Next Steps: Short-term traders should monitor price action around 625.50 and 622.75 as the most likely zones for support. Watch for further confirmation with broader index weakness or macro catalysts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by QuantAi-Trend
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 11, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Strong Bank Earnings Amid Tariff Churn Next week’s Q2 forecasts point to robust earnings from U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo—as trading and investment-banking revenue recover, offsetting uncertainties from ongoing tariffs 💬 Dimon Flags Fed Risk Pricing JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon cautioned that markets may be underestimating upside in interest rates. He sees a 40–50% probability of higher U.S. rates, driven by inflation from tariffs, migration, and fiscal deficits ⚖️ Tariff “Scattergun” Sparks Sector Disconnect Trump’s plans to levy up to 200% tariffs on pharma and 50% on copper triggered uneven market reactions—copper prices rose 30% in six months, while European drugmakers remain flat, highlighting divergent sector sensitivities 📉 Tech & Macro Still Bullish Despite policy turbulence, Nvidia climbed back above a $4 trillion valuation, and JPMorgan projects a $500 billion inflow into equities in H2—supporting gains even as broader macro pressures linger 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Friday, July 11: (No major U.S. economic data scheduled) Markets will focus on bank earnings previews, tariff headlines, and the hold of the tech rally into a thin summer trading week. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #tariffs #banks #tech #Fed #investing
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
Select Your Trading Time There’s an old saying: “Plan your trade, and trade your plan.” But I want to add something even more important: “Pick your time to trade.” --- 💰 The Market Is Not Your ATM Everyone enters trading with one goal: make money. Some even think of the market as an ATM — pull the handle, cash comes out. But the truth is: ❌ The market doesn’t care about your goals ❌ It won’t move just because you need to make money today This is a brutal game. And you don’t control the clock. --- ⚠️ When You Force a Trade... Too many traders say: “I have to make money today.” “I need to hit $X this week.” “I just took a loss, I must come back now.” That kind of thinking leads to: Bad entries Overtrading Emotional decisions Big losses ❗ Trading success doesn’t come from forcing outcomes — it comes from waiting for the right moments. --- 🧠 What Happens on Low-Volatility Days Let’s take today as an example. SPY moved in a 2-point range all day. No momentum, no trend, just chop. Some traders: Ran one QS signal after another Forced trades just to feel busy Got chopped up by fast reversals Then blamed the signals But here’s the truth: AI or not , you can’t expect any long-volatility trade to work when the market is dead still. The only winners on days like today? Market makers and options sellers. --- ❓ Why Trade at All on a Day Like This? If the market isn’t offering opportunity, Why force it? Why chase trades? Why burn your energy? The smarter move is: Sit out Observe Wait for better setups Preserve your mental and financial capital --- 🔄 Recovery? Yes — But on Your Terms Some traders lose money and say: “I need to make it back today.” That’s emotional revenge trading. What if the market doesn’t give you a clean opportunity today? Are you still going to go all-in, out of frustration? ❌ That’s not a strategy. That’s gambling. --- 📍 QS Signals Are a Map — Not a Magic Button QS AI signals help you find opportunities — but even the best map won’t help if: You're in the wrong city (bad market environment) You’re rushing without checking road conditions (volatility, news, timing) Even with QS, you don’t have to trade every day, every hour. --- ✅ What You Should Do Be patient Respect market conditions Take a break on slow or tricky days Come back when the odds are in your favor --- 🧘‍♂️ Final Words You don’t have to win every day. You don’t have to trade every day. You don’t even have to be active to be successful. 🎯 Trade less. Trade smarter. Select your time wisely. That’s how real traders survive and thrive in this game.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by quantsignals
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July  10, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 🏦 Global Banks Profit from Tariff Volatility Major banks like JPMorgan, BofA, and Citigroup are expected to see ~10% growth in trading revenue in Q2, fueled by volatility from President Trump’s tariff policy shifts. Treasury trading volumes hit record highs as markets priced in policy swings 📈 S&P 500 Nears Lull Amid Bull Market Strains Despite record highs in 2025, investors are warning that the rally may be reaching its limit. Bullish sentiment is strong, but analysts caution that sluggish consumer spending, rising inflation from tariffs, and few rate-cut signals from the Fed could cap downside momentum 🐻 Bear Case Gains Ground Stifel’s Barry Bannister projected a potential ~12% correction in the second half of 2025. Key risks include slowing consumer spending, weak capital investment under tariff uncertainty, and persistent core inflation above 3%, negatively impacting earnings and growth outlooks ⚖️ “One Big Beautiful Bill” Could Add Trillions in Debt The new fiscal package signed July 4 will add $3–4 trillion to national debt over the next decade while extending tax cuts and revising EV incentives. Bond market and Fed policy implications may become more pronounced if growth fails to keep pace 📊 Stocks vs Bonds: Diverging Signals While equities climb and megacaps extend gains, Treasury yields have risen five days straight—signaling growing caution over real growth prospects. The yield curve steepening hints at mixed signals: growth optimism in stocks, but bond market signaling economic risk ahead 📊 Key Data & Events 📅 Thursday, July 10: No major scheduled economic releases. Markets remain driven by tariff headlines, bank earnings reactions, and evolving Fed signals. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This is for informational and educational purposes only—not financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #marketvolatility #tariffs #banks #Fed #debt #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
SPY Approaches Gamma Wall-TA for July 10SPY Approaches Gamma Wall: Key Zones to Watch for Tomorrow’s Trade 🔥 GEX Options Sentiment Analysis: SPY is currently hovering just below the major GEX resistance zone around 624–626, where the highest positive GEX and gamma wall overlap with strong call walls (52.17% and 41.33%). This region has historically capped upside momentum, so traders should prepare for potential rejection or breakout scenarios. Downside has modest protection around 620 (HVL level), with negative GEX zones building near 619–617, marking a weak PUT wall. The lack of deep PUT dominance signals limited downside hedging pressure. * IVR: 8.9 (low), IVx avg: 13.8 * Options Flow Sentiment: 24.1% PUTs * GEX Bias: Mildly bullish unless 623 fails Options Strategy Suggestions: * If price breaks and holds above 626.5, consider buying CALL spreads (e.g., 626c/630c) targeting a gamma squeeze into 628+. * If 623 breaks, look for short-dated PUT spreads (e.g., 623p/620p) targeting a fade back into 620 or even 617. 1-Hour Chart Price Action Analysis: SPY has reclaimed a bullish posture after the CHoCH (Change of Character) on July 8 and is pushing into a supply zone just beneath the prior swing high. The price structure now forms a clean ascending channel, supported by higher lows and rising demand. * Support Zones: 622.00, 620.34 * Resistance Levels: 624.72, 626.27 * BOS (Break of Structure): Confirmed earlier, adding bullish confluence Watch for a breakout above the current supply zone to continue momentum toward 628+. However, failure to break and a rejection near 625 could lead to a retest of 620–622 as the next demand zone. Trading Outlook for Thursday: * Bullish Case: Break and close above 626 opens the door to a squeeze into 628+. Use pullbacks to 623–624.2 as entry zones. * Bearish Case: Rejection at current levels with a breakdown below 622.5 could pull SPY into the 620.3 and possibly 617.9 levels. * Scalp Setup: Long above 625 with tight stop below 623. Short below 622.5 targeting 620, risk above 624. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always manage risk and follow your own plan.
AMEX:SPY
by BullBearInsights
SPY Options Analysis Summary (2025-07-22) 🔻 AMEX:SPY Weak Bearish Put Setup (0DTE) – 07/22/25 All models agree: price is weak, momentum is limp, and VWAP is above. But conviction? Not unanimous. High-risk, high-reward 0DTE scalpers only. ⸻ 📉 Trade Setup • 🟥 Direction: PUT • 🎯 Strike: $626.00 • 💵 Entry: $0.57 • 💰 Target: $1.70 (+200%) • 🛑 Stop: $0.28 (–50%) • 📅 Expiry: Today (0DTE) • ⚖️ Confidence: 65% • ⏰ Entry Timing: Market Open ⸻ 🧠 Multi-AI Consensus Model Bias Action Grok/xAI Weak Bearish ⚠️ No Trade Claude Weak Bearish ⚠️ No Trade Gemini Bearish ✅ $627 Put Llama Moderately Bearish ⚠️ Conservative Put DeepSeek Bearish ✅ $626 Put 🔹 VWAP < Price = Bearish bias 🔹 RSI = Neutral → watch for fakeouts 🔹 VIX favorable (<22) 🔹 Volume = weak = risk of whipsaw ⸻ ⚠️ Risk Notes • Bounce risk off session lows is real • Lack of momentum may cause theta burn • Best for scalpers who react fast — not a swing trade • No conviction = smaller size, tighter leash ⸻ 📢 Tagline (for virality): “ AMEX:SPY is limping, not bleeding. But if it breaks, 200% comes fast. 0DTE scalpers: this is your window.” 💣
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantsignals