SPY: Pullback or No? Hey everyone,
Posting again for next week.
My thoughts, not advice as usual.
Hope you find them helpful and I hope you all have a great and sunny weekend!
Take care and safe trades!
SPY trade ideas
July 21 Special Update : Metals, SPY & More. What's Next.This special update is to highlight why I continue to believe traders should stay very cautious of this rally in the SPY/QQQ/BTCUSD.
Underlying economic data suggest that this is one big speculative rally following the April Tariff collapse.
And, the economic data I see from my custom indexes suggests the markets are moving into a very volatile and potentially dangerous topping pattern.
As I've stated many times in this video. I'm not saying the markets have topped and you should SELL EVERYTHING. I'm suggesting this market is extremely over-valued in terms of the underlying risk factors at play and the very clear data that suggests the markets are already in a recessionary price trend.
You may ask, "How can the markets continue to rally like this in a moderate recession?".
The answer is simple.
All bubbles end with a super-speculative phase. This phase is where everyone piles into a euphoric attempt to ride the rally higher.
It happened in the late 1990s. It has happened again through the 2000-2005+ housing bubble. Heck, it has occurred in the collectors market over the past few decades where people spent fortunes on the "hottest items" (think Beanie-Babies) only to find out they bought at the height of the bubble.
That is why I continue to urge traders to remain cautious and to withdraw profits from this speculative rally phase. Protect your investment capital immediately and consider the risks associated with the information I share in this video.
I'm not trying to scare anyone. I'm just trying to be realistic in terms of what I see in my data and why I believe now is the best time to MOVE TO SAFETY.
My data suggests that the markets are about to enter a fragile and potentially dangerous pullback phase. If you want to ride it out - go for it.
Otherwise, prepare for significant volatility over the next six months or more.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
Spy.. 650 topLooking for a top this week
The top of this monthly trendline dating from 2009 should be tagged this week around 643-645.00. As you can see price can grind up here for weeks until the BIG drop.
That grind would possibly be distribution with
A range trade of 620-640 for the month of august. historically Sept is very bearish and could see a drop back below 600 then.
Summer price action looks like so
Smaller price action (Tradeable technicals)
Bull flag early July has us squeezing up this last leg here..
If we gap up Sunday night then i like the short around 638ish
If we gap down and flush i like the dip buy around 634 gap close with the next target being 640+
Daily candle closed outside Bbands so I would not long this on any gap up... on a big earnings week like this, there will be a shake out day or a flush to try and stop out all of those who bought long last week for this weeks earnings.
TVC:NYA or NYSE
Has also reached the top of its weekly channel here. 21,000 will be tough. Price could grind up here but I'd be careful trading anything non tech.
As far as tech goes
Here's NASDAQ:QQQ
monthly chart (Logarithmic)
We have room for 575-580
This should compliment Spy 550
Zoomed in on the daily chart and it's climbing back up to the resistance shown on the monthly
Hourly chart shows price action from early july... tight channel illustrates how frustrating the swings have been
562-563 is support heading into next week. If we have a major gap up Sunday night I would look to open short near 570 for a pullback before ER... if we gap down, I would buy the dip around 563 and average down if need be down to 561..
We should tag 575 this week
The sector that I think lags the most this week is the banking sector... AMEX:XLF
Banks outperform the entire market last week and are overheated at resistance I think they lag this week
I will update this more throughout the week if necessary..
Spy ATH prediction by end of 2025 10% from 613 triple top ATH major major level. I think SPY see 672 before 2025 is over 🔮
SPY: Week of Jul y21stPosting an idea on SPY against better judgement.
Its a mess of an index but here is my attempt at an analysis with this trainwreck, haha.
Best of luck, safe trades and take care!
SPY CONTINUES IN AN ASCENDING WEDGE PATTERNThe SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) is currently exhibiting an ascending wedge pattern on the 30-minute chart, a bearish technical pattern that often signals a potential reversal or selloff when confirmed. Below, I’ll explain the ascending wedge pattern, identify key levels to watch for a potential selloff, and provide context based on recent market sentiment. Since I cannot view the real-time chart, I’ll base the analysis on the characteristics of an ascending wedge and recent posts on X that discuss SPY’s price action, ensuring a critical approach to the data.
What is an Ascending Wedge Pattern?
An ascending wedge (or rising wedge) is a bearish chart pattern formed when the price consolidates between two upward-sloping trendlines that converge over time. The upper trendline (resistance) connects higher highs, and the lower trendline (support) connects higher lows, creating a narrowing price range. This pattern typically indicates that bullish momentum is weakening, as buyers are pushing prices higher but with diminishing strength, often leading to a breakdown below the lower trendline.
Key characteristics of an ascending wedge include:
Converging Trendlines: Both the support and resistance lines slope upward, with the support line often steeper than the resistance line.
Decreasing Volume: Trading volume typically declines as the pattern forms, reflecting reduced buying conviction. A spike in volume often accompanies a breakout or breakdown.
Bearish Implication: In an uptrend, the ascending wedge signals a potential reversal to the downside. In a downtrend, it may act as a continuation pattern, but the bearish bias remains.
Breakout Confirmation: A convincing break below the lower trendline, preferably with increased volume, confirms the bearish reversal. A retest of the broken support (now resistance) may occur before further declines.
The pattern typically forms over 3–4 weeks but can appear on shorter timeframes like the 30-minute chart, making it relevant for intraday or short-term traders.investopedia.comen.wikipedia.org
SPY’s Current Ascending Wedge on the 30-Minute Chart
Given that SPY is in an ascending wedge on the 30-minute chart, we can infer the following based on recent posts on X and general technical analysis principles:
Pattern Context:
The ascending wedge suggests SPY has been making higher highs and higher lows in a tightening range, indicating a potential exhaustion of the bullish trend.
Recent posts on X (e.g., @AskPerplexity on July 16, 2025) noted a rising wedge in SPY with a breakdown through the lower trendline, suggesting bearish momentum. Another post (@YakshuMadaan on July 15, 2025) mentioned a wedge breaking below 6220, targeting 6050 on the S&P 500 index ( SP:SPX ), which correlates to SPY levels around $605–$610.
Key Levels to Watch:
Lower Trendline (Support): The critical level to monitor is the lower trendline of the wedge, which connects the higher lows. A decisive break below this level (e.g., a close below on the 30-minute chart with strong volume) signals a bearish breakdown and potential selloff. Based on recent X posts, this level may have been around $622 (equivalent to ~6220 on SP:SPX ) recently, but you should confirm the exact level on the current chart.
Upper Trendline (Resistance): The upper trendline connects the higher highs and acts as resistance. If SPY fails to break above this level, it reinforces the bearish bias. This could be near recent highs, potentially around $630–$635, depending on the chart’s progression.
Support Zones Post-Breakdown: If the lower trendline breaks, key support levels to watch include:
$590–$600: A post on X highlighted this as a major support zone based on volume profile analysis, likely corresponding to a prior consolidation area or gap fill.
$605–$610: Another post suggested a target of 6050 on SP:SPX , translating to roughly $605–$610 for SPY, aligning with a significant retracement level.
Retest Level: After a breakdown, the price may retest the broken lower trendline (now resistance). For example, if the breakdown occurs at $622, a retest could see SPY rally back to $622–$625 before resuming the decline.ig.com
Volume and Indicators:
Volume: Look for declining volume as the wedge forms, followed by a spike on the breakdown to confirm the move. Low volume during the wedge suggests waning bullish momentum.xs.com
Relative Strength Index (RSI): An RSI above 70 near the upper trendline or showing bearish divergence (lower RSI highs while price makes higher highs) strengthens the case for a selloff.xs.com
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): A bearish crossover (MACD line crossing below the signal line) near the upper trendline can confirm weakening momentum.xs.com
Potential Selloff Triggers:
A close below the lower trendline on the 30-minute chart, especially with a spike in volume, is the primary trigger for a selloff. For example, a break below $622 (if that’s the current support) could initiate a move toward $605–$610 or lower to $590–$600.
A failed retest of the broken trendline (e.g., SPY rallies to $622–$625 after breaking down but fails to reclaim the trendline) would confirm bearish continuation.
Broader Market Context: Recent X posts suggest market concerns about macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate fears, policy shifts) could amplify a selloff, especially if technical levels break.
SPY "SP500 ETF" 1️⃣ Market Structure Overview
Change of Character (CHoCH) – Level: 626.19
The market printed a clear CHoCH at 626.19, breaking below a recent higher low. This shift signals the end of bullish dominance and marks the first warning of potential trend reversal. It’s a critical structure break indicating weakness in prior buy-side momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS) – Level: 631.54
A firm Break of Structure followed at 631.54, confirming the downtrend. This BOS came after price failed to establish a new high and instead reversed from the premium area, solidifying bearish continuation. It now acts as a key upper boundary for sellers.
2️⃣ Demand Zone Analysis (Support Levels)
The demand zones (green areas) are historical locations where price previously reacted strongly to the upside—suggesting institutional buying or significant liquidity absorption. These zones act as potential long-entry areas and support during pullbacks:
625.50: Immediate demand zone; price has hovered above this level recently, signaling short-term support.
624.80: Strong base formed after earlier accumulation; minor rally originated here.
623.80: Clear area of bullish imbalance; look for wick rejections here.
622.75 & 621.90: Deeper demand zones—likely to hold if the market retraces further and volatility spikes. These levels represent high-probability reversal points if liquidity sweep occurs below 624.
Each zone increases in risk/reward the deeper price pulls back, but also carries a higher chance of forming strong bullish reaction.
3️⃣ Supply Zone Analysis (Resistance Levels)
The supply zone (red area) at 628.85–631.54 was the origin of the last sharp bearish move following the BOS. It now acts as a potential reversal or distribution zone:
628.85 – 631.54:
This area previously held heavy sell-side interest and rejected bullish advances. It overlaps with a structural BOS and sits near the high of the prior rally. Watch for bearish price action or lower-timeframe exhaustion here. A break and close above 631.54 would invalidate this zone and indicate a major structural reclaim.
4️⃣ Current Price Action (Inside the Marked Border)
Price is currently reacting around 627, just above the CHoCH level (626.19). This zone lies between the upper boundary of the nearby demand and the lower edge of the supply. Within this boxed region:
Price is showing temporary consolidation, suggesting indecision.
A short-term dip into the 625.50–624.80 demand cluster is expected before any bullish leg.
If price holds above 626.19 and shows reversal signals (like bullish engulfing, hammer, or low-volume rejection), we may see continuation to test the 628.85–631.54 supply zone.
If structure fails and price breaks below 626.19 with conviction, the next downside targets are deeper into the 622–624 range.
This bordered zone represents a transitional area where the next directional move will likely be decided.
5️⃣ Momentum & Structure Bias
Structure remains bearish after the BOS, but current price is attempting to build a base.
If price maintains above CHoCH (626.19) and demand levels begin to hold, we may enter a bullish corrective phase.
Watch for rising volume on bullish candles or absorption wicks in demand zones as confirmation.
6️⃣ Macro/Fundamental Context (as of July 22, 2025)
While the chart is technical, the SPY ETF (S&P 500) is influenced by broader economic data. Around this date, watch for:
Earnings Season: Mid to late July often brings earnings from major S&P 500 companies. Positive tech earnings can fuel bullish momentum.
FOMC Speculation: If investors expect no rate hike or a dovish Federal Reserve stance, demand zones are more likely to hold.
Economic Reports: Look out for PMI or consumer confidence reports this week. A weak reading may drive SPY lower into demand, while a strong reading could help push it toward the supply zone.
If any bullish macro surprise occurs this week, it would support the bounce from the demand zone.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Special Update : BUCKLE UPThis video is a special update for all TradingView members. I felt I needed to share this information and present the case that I believe poses the most significant risk to your financial future - and it's happening right now.
Several weeks ago, I identified a very unique mirror setup in the SPY and kept an eye on how it was playing out. I needed to see confirmation of this setup before I could say it had any real likelihood of playing out as I expected.
As of today, I'm suggesting that we now have excellent confirmation that the US/Global markets are about to enter a deep consolidation phase, lasting through the rest of 2025 and possibly into 2026 and early 2027.
The interesting thing about this price pattern/structure is that it is almost exactly the same as the 2003-2007 structure, which I believe is the origin of this mirror setup. Almost down to the exact type of price bars/patterns I'm seeing.
Many of you are already aware that I've been calling for a critical low cycle in the SPY on July 18 for many months. What you may not realize is that the pattern is based on Weekly price data. The July 18 cycle low can have a span of +/- 1-3 weeks related to when and how the cycle low pattern plays out.
Watch this video. If you have any questions, message me or comment.
I'm still here, doing my best to identify and unlock the secrets of price action and to help as many traders as I can.
Price is the Ultimate Indicator.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
SPY - On Our Way To Target 3 ...But First?Trading Fam,
It's been a while since I updated you all on the SPY, which, as you know, we track closely to help us determine the overall market trend. Since we have now exceeded my Target #2, it's time for me to give you all another update. But first, a little context for my new readers which I have been getting a lot of recently, thanks to my new indicator hitting it out of the park.
So, we began marking targets on our chart here after spotting an inverse H&S on the daily chart a few years ago. Many of my followers back then were doubtful the pattern would fully form, or if it did, that it would actually play out. But the pattern completed about 14 months ago and subsequently broke the neckline in June of last year. I then knew we were going full send and have been predicting a 700 SPY final target since. This target has been made utilizing both that inverse H&S pattern as well as a longer-trend Elliot Wave, which I don't have denoted here at this point. The chart gets too messy with all of my markings. Regardless, we are currently in wave 5 and heading steadily towards that 670-700 target #3, my final target.
But be careful! Today, we have hit the underside of that RED area, which is HUGE resistance. I would expect that we will NOT break straight through this without some pullback prior. Indeed, the market is overextended at this moment, and we'll need the volume to be able to push through. Could this occur? Of course, anything is possible. But, it is not likely right now.
My guess is that we'll at least pull back to one of those levels below us or possibly even re-touch that 200 SMA in red before the final push.
Anyways, it is worth taking note of what may be ahead of us in the next few weeks or months so that you can plan your trades accordingly. Stay with me. We're almost there.
✌️Stew
A tale of two wedgesIn early 2025 we’ve seen two classic wedge patterns on two of the market’s most watched charts: a falling wedge on the U.S. Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) and a rising wedge on the S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ). Alone each tells its own tale—but together they sketch a tug‑of‑war between a fading dollar and resilient equities.
The Falling Wedge on DXY
A falling wedge in a downtrend signals waning bearish momentum and often precedes a bullish reversal once price breaks the upper trendline.
The Rising Wedge on SPY
A rising wedge in an uptrend is classically a bearish reversal pattern —a breakdown below the lower trendline confirms sellers are gaining control.
A Converging Reversal
Given the well‑known inverse correlation between the dollar and most assets, it’s noteworthy that both asset classes are flashing signs of a reversal. Taken together that makes a compelling argument.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / CBOE:SPX Scenarios for July 25, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market‑Moving News 🌍
🏔️ Copper Market Flashpoint
Following President Trump’s announcement of steep copper tariffs (15–50% range), U.S. copper futures surged, then sharply reversed. Inventory arbitrage between CME and LME markets surged, distorting pricing dynamics and triggering concern over metal market stability.
🇪🇺 EU–China Summit Signals Trade Reset
EU leaders concluded their 25th summit with China, fostering deeper economic and strategic ties. Observers expect follow-up on mutual trade agreements, particularly regarding tech and sustainability sectors.
🌍 EM Equity Rally Consolidates Gains
Emerging markets continue to outperform global equities in 2025—with MSCI EM up ~18% vs. S&P 500. Analysts highlight strong opportunities in AI/fintech stocks in China and Latin America, suggesting further rotations out of U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Friday, July 25:
8:30 AM ET – Durable Goods Orders (June):
Forecast shows a sharp drop (~–10%), following a ~16% gain in May—signaling possible cooling in business-related equipment purchases.
10:00 AM ET – U.S. Imports of Steel Products (June):
Trade-data release monitoring steel flows amid evolving tariff frameworks.
All Day – Corporate Earnings Reports:
Companies such as First Financial Bancorp (FFBC), HCA, AON, Charter, and others report earnings. Outlooks may influence small- to mid-cap sentiment.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #data #earnings #commodities #EM #technicalanalysis
Dinosaur gets hit by a meteor We can see a clear breakout from previous lows only target left is that meteor at 630-640.
We will see this by the end of july!
Earnings Heat Up - 6300 and 6200 SPX Key Levels RemainMarket Update
SPX Key Levels
-SPX poked 6300 Tuesday, Thursday, and poked higher Friday (but settled back to 6300)
-6200 support remains a key level
-6050/6000/5800 next floor levels, I'll be looking for dips
I can see the market slowly (and I mean SLOWLY) grinding higher but preparing for a
reasonable seasonal selloff through end of July into end of September window
July 28-August 1 is a monster week in the markets
-Megacap Earnings (MAG7 Tue/Wed/Thu)
-Wed July 30 - FOMC (Pause expected but Powell's Press Conference is important)
-Friday August 1 - Non-Farm Payroll, Tariff Deadline
I'm hitting fresh YTD highs so I'm not complaining about this melt-up and grind, I'm simply wanting to allocate positions and add to my positions at better levels and with a slightly
higher VIX to help take advantage of the expected move being greater than the actual move
Have a great weekend and thank you watching!!!
Stock Market Forecast | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFTStock Market Forecast | CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1!
Mag 7 Forecast | NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AAPL AMZN META MSFT GOOG
SPY Reclaims Rising Wedge Support - Bear Trap or Breakout Setup?SPY dropped below its rising wedge earlier this week, but that move may have been a bear trap. Price quickly reversed, reclaiming the wedge trendline and closing just below a key Fibonacci level at 629.84.
Buyers stepped in aggressively near the 0.382 and 0.236 retracement zones, defending short-term support. The bounce came on increased volume, signaling strength behind the recovery. Momentum remains intact as long as SPY holds above 626.
Now, bulls need to confirm with a breakout above 629.84–631.96 to open the door to the next levels at 635.63 and 640.30. Failure to break through could lead to another rejection and revisit lower support zones.
Levels to watch:
Support: 626.64, 623.62, 619.60
Resistance: 629.84, 631.96, 635.63
SPY is at a decision point. Reclaiming wedge support is a bullish signal, but bulls need follow-through to avoid another fakeout in the opposite direction.
SPY July 21-25AMEX:SPY
Looking at the 4 hr. timeframe on SPY. Bearish divergence is signaling a need for some cool off. I assume this will happen almost immediately, Monday maybe into Tuesday. I expect to keep above strong support levels at 618 and 609.95. Drops below 609 will change my stance to a more bearish tone. assuming we hold these levels, I expect that SPY will continue upward after some small consolidation up here in the range. Looking at a trend-based fib, some price points to the upside above ath's(all time highs) would be 633.52 and 637.85. Even 654.
Economic and policy fundamentals could shift any bullishness into another sharp pullback or even up into higher price targets.
Not much to be bearish abut this week, earnings season is kicking off and this could play a role as well; Tesla and google & blue chips happening Tuesday- Thursday.
These earnings could be the mystery seasoning to shake up this week's movement.
SPY What Next? SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 627.59
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 625.38
About Used Indicators:
Super-trend indicator is more useful in trending markets where there are clear uptrends and downtrends in price.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY Forming A Bearish Head and Shoulders PatternSPX Technical Update – Bearish Watch
Chart Focus: S&P 500 Index (30-Min Chart)
Date: July 21, 2025
🧠 Pattern Watch: Classic Head & Shoulders Formation
A clear head and shoulders pattern has emerged on the short-term 30-minute chart, signaling a potential bearish reversal after the recent uptrend.
Left Shoulder: Around 630.75
Head: Peaked near 633.00
Right Shoulder: Capped just under 631.00
Neckline: Sits near the 628.75–628.20 zone, marked by a yellow upward-sloping trendline and tested support.
📉 Bearish Breakdown in Play
The price has now broken below the neckline zone at 628.75 with increasing volume — an early confirmation of a bearish break.
The break beneath the rising wedge support and neckline suggests increased downside risk in the near term.
🧭 Technical Levels to Watch
Key Level Type Action
633.00 Resistance (Head) Likely capped unless strong reversal
631.00 Resistance Right shoulder, overhead rejection
628.75 Neckline Support (Broken) Bearish trigger zone
628.20 Intraday support Final support test (now resistance)
625.50 Initial Target Breakdown projection
622.75 Lower Support Measured move target zone
📌 Measured Move Projection:
A break of ~4.5 points from head to neckline projects a target near 624–625 in the near term.
📊 Volume Profile Note
Volume expanded on the neckline break, supporting the validity of the pattern.
Recent bars show a rise in selling pressure as bulls failed to reclaim above 630 after the breakdown.
🔍 Summary Outlook
Bearish Bias: Valid while below 628.75 neckline resistance.
Invalidation Zone: A sustained close above 631.00 would invalidate the bearish pattern.
Watch for Retest: Any bounce into 628.75–629.25 could act as a retest and fade opportunity.
📆 Next Steps:
Short-term traders should monitor price action around 625.50 and 622.75 as the most likely zones for support. Watch for further confirmation with broader index weakness or macro catalysts.
Climbed too fast to the top of the channel?Weekly chart on log - looks like its already topped out and will likely hit one of those targets in the coming weeks. Maybe a test or slight break above channel before going down.
SPY risk on for a few weekslooks like we are still moving up (SPX 6,400-6,500) but the risk to a correction is increasing.
FOMO phase on meme stock. so still profit to be had
SPY at Key Support! Will It Hold or Break? TA for July 16🧨 GEX-Based Options Outlook:
* GEX Sentiment: Negative gamma dominates (🟥 GEX 🔻), indicating elevated dealer hedging risk.
* Put Wall & Support:
* Major PUT Wall at 620 (⚠️ -38.47%) is being tested.
* Additional downside liquidity lies below 618.
* Call Resistance:
* Upside resistance around 625–627, where both the 2nd CALL Wall and GEX7/8 sit.
* IV/Flow Summary:
* IVR 12.3 (low), PUTs 57.2% – bearish skew.
* Option flow is protecting downside → less confidence in upside follow-through unless we reclaim 624.5+.
* Conclusion: SPY is pinned around major support. A breakdown under 620 could accelerate downside into 616/614 range.
📉 1H Price Action & Trade Setup:
* SPY formed a CHoCH breakdown and is retesting the wedge base.
* Strong rejection from the 624.81–627.96 supply zone.
* Price is now hugging trendline support and could trigger a bounce or further breakdown depending on liquidity sweep.
Bullish Scenario:
* ✅ Entry: Above 621.50 reclaim with confirmation.
* 🎯 Targets: 624.50 → 626.80.
* ⛔ Stop: 620 or below trendline.
* ⚠️ Note: Only valid if SPY holds the CHoCH base and sweeps under 620 to trap bears.
Bearish Scenario:
* ❌ Entry: Clean break below 620, especially if it fails a retest.
* 🎯 Targets: 618 → 615.50 → 612.
* ⛔ Stop: Back above 622 with volume.
🎯 My Thoughts & Recommendation:
SPY is balancing on a major PUT wall and SMC support trendline. If 620 fails, the path of least resistance is down toward 615 and potentially 612 due to the lack of supportive gamma levels below. A relief bounce is possible only if dealers regain control above 624. Keep stops tight, as this zone could snap quickly.
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading.
Elliott Wave Analysis: SPY Poised To Extend Higher In Bullish SeElliott Wave sequence in SPY (S&P 500 ETF) suggest bullish sequence in progress started from 4.07.2025 low. It expects two or few more highs to extend the impulse sequence from April-2025, while dips remain above 6.23.2025 low. SPY ended the daily corrective pullback in 3 swings at 480 low on 4.07.2025 low from February-2025 peak. Above there, it favors upside in bullish impulse sequence as broke above February-2025 high. Currently, it favors wave 3 of (1) & expect one more push higher from 7.16.2025 low in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in wave 4. In 4-hour, it placed 1 at 596.05 high, 2 at 573.26 low as shallow connector & extend higher in 3. Within 3, it placed ((i)) at 606.40 high, ((ii)) at 591.89 low, ((iii)) at 627.97 high & ((iv)) at 618.05 low.
In 1-hour above ((ii)) low of 591.89 low, it ended (i) at 605.96 high, (ii) at 603.17 low, (iii) at 626.87 high as extended move, (iv) at 620 low & (v) as ((iii)) at 627.97 high. Wave ((iv)) ended in 3 swing pullback as shallow connector slightly below 0.236 Fibonacci retracement of ((iii)). Within ((iii)), it ended (a) at 619.8 low, (b) at 624.12 high & (c) at 618.05 low on 7.16.2025 low (this week). Above there, it favors rally in ((v)) of 3 targeting in to 630.31 – 651.1 area before correcting in 4. Within ((v)), it placed (i) at 624.73 high, (ii) at 623.08 low & favors upside in (iii) of ((v)). We like to buy the pullback in clear 3, 7 or 11 swings correction at extreme area in 4 and later in (2) pullback, once finished (1) in 5 swings.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for July 24, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 U.S.–EU & U.S.–Japan Trade Optimism Lifts Sentiment
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record-high closes on July 23, fueled by optimism over a potential U.S.–EU trade deal mirroring the U.S.–Japan framework, with the EU-set tariff on autos potentially halved to 15%
💵 Dollar Retreats, Yields Climb
As markets shifted toward risk assets, U.S. Treasury yields increased and gold softened, while the dollar eased—highlighting growing confidence in trade-driven growth news
🏦 Fed Independence Under Pressure—But No July Cut Expected
A Reuters poll shows economists see heightened political pressure on the Fed jeopardizing its independence, though the consensus remains that rates will stay unchanged this month
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Thursday, July 24:
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly tally of new unemployment benefit applications—key indicator of labor-market conditions.
10:00 AM ET – New Residential Sales (June)
Tracks signed contracts for new homes, offering insight into housing demand under tightening mortgage rates.
All Day – Trade Headlines & Fed Watch
Continued focus on U.S.–EU trade developments and any follow-up to Fed independence concerns from policy circles.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only—not financial advice. Please consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #trade #economy #Fed #housing #jobs #technicalanalysis
