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NVIDIA CORPNVIDIA CORPNVIDIA CORP

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NVDA trade ideas

$NVDA WEEKLY TRADE IDEA – JULY 21, 2025 💥 NASDAQ:NVDA WEEKLY TRADE IDEA – JULY 21, 2025 💥 🔥 Bullish Options Flow + Weekly RSI Strength = Controlled Momentum Play ⸻ 📊 Trade Details 🔹 Type: Long Call 🎯 Strike: $180.00 📆 Expiry: July 25, 2025 (4DTE) 💰 Entry: $0.51 🎯 Target: $1.02 (💯% Gain) 🛑 Stop: $0.20 (~40% Risk) 📈 Confidence: 65% 🕰️ Timing: Monday Open 📦 Size: 1 Contract (Adjust based on risk tolerance) ⸻ 📈 Why This Trade? ✅ Call/Put Ratio = 1.48 → Bullish bias confirmed 📈 Weekly RSI = 77.0 → Strong momentum 🔻 Daily RSI = 80.8 (falling) → Short-term pullback risk 📉 Volume = flat (1.0x) → Weak confirmation = tighter risk mgmt 🧠 Strike Clustering: $177.50 & $180 = strong OI zones 🌬️ VIX = 16.7 → Favorable for long premium plays ⸻ ⚠️ Risks & Strategy Notes ❗ Daily RSI = caution: short-term exhaustion possible 📉 Weak volume = lack of institutional chase ⏳ Exit before Friday – avoid IV crush and gamma slam 🔐 Set alerts at $178.75 and $179.80 – pre-breakout signals ⸻ 🎯 Plan: • Enter Monday open • Scale partials if price hits +30–50% • Full exit by Thursday unless price is breaking through $180 early with strong volume ⸻ 🏁 Quick Verdict: This is a momentum continuation setup, not a fresh breakout. Play the trend, respect RSI signals, and cut fast if flow dries up. NASDAQ:NVDA 180C — Risk $0.20 to Target $1.02 Let the call ride… just don’t overstay. ⸻ #NVDA #OptionsTrading #CallOption #WeeklyPlay #MomentumTrade #FlowBasedSetup #TradingViewIdeas #GammaPlay #BullishBias #NVIDIA
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by quantsignals
NVDA Nearing it's top, When to Buy in?Hi, I’m The Cafe Trader. This week we’re continuing our breakdown of the MAG 7, and today we’re taking a look at NVIDIA (NVDA) — 2 out of 7 in the group have broken out to new all-time highs, and NVDA is one of them. ⸻ 🧠 Analyst Targets Analyst price targets for NVDA are wide-ranging — some as low as $80, others as high as $250. The average target is around $180, and NVDA is currently approaching that level. Buying into strength like this can be difficult, so I’ve prepared a few long-term price zones for those looking to add on dips. ⸻ 📈 Long-Term Price Zones to Watch: • Aggressive Entry Zone: ~$163 This is the top of a developing demand zone. You’ll see some buyer interest here, but that demand extends down toward $144. • Primary Demand Area: $153–$144 This is where stronger buyers have shown up in the past. It’s a more balanced zone and could act as a key support in any retracement. • Deep Value Zone: ~$129 If NVDA pulls back this far, this would be my favorite buy level. Anything at $130 or lower would represent what I consider a steal — strong value relative to long-term expectations. ⸻ 📊 Follow for more MAG 7 price breakdowns. Up next: a deeper dive into NVDA for shorter-term swing trades and technical setups. 📍@thecafetrader
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by thecafetrader
Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Surges Above $170Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Surges Above $170 Yesterday, Nvidia’s (NVDA) share price rose by more than 4%, with the following developments: → It surpassed the psychological level of $170 per share; → Reached another all-time high; → Gained more than 9% since the beginning of the month. The bullish sentiment is driven by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to China shortly after meeting with US President Trump. At the same time: → US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stated that the planned resumption of sales of Nvidia H20 AI chips in China is part of the US negotiations on rare earth metals. → The head of Nvidia stated that he was assured licences would be granted very quickly, and that a large number of orders for H20 chip deliveries had already been received from Chinese companies. Market participants are viewing the situation with strong optimism, and analysts are raising their valuations for NVDA shares: → Morningstar analysts raised their fair value estimate for Nvidia shares from $140 to $170. → Oppenheimer analysts increased their target price from $170 to $200. Technical Analysis of the NVDA Chart The price trajectory of NVDA shares fully reflects the exceptionally strong demand: → The price is moving within an ascending channel with a steep growth angle; → Since early May, the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart has not fallen below the 50 level; → Yesterday’s trading session opened with a large bullish gap. The chart also shows the formation of a stable bullish market structure (shown with a purple broken line), expressed through a sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Given the above, it is difficult to imagine what might cause a sharp shift from positive to negative sentiment. If a correction begins (for example, with a test of the $160 level), traders should watch for signs of its completion — this could present an opportunity to join the emerging rally. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen
NVDA 1-Hour Chart UpdateHey everyone, just wanted to share a quick update on NVDA’s 1-hour chart. Following last week’s bull flag breakout, the stock appears to be consolidating into what looks like a solid bull pennant formation. With major tech earnings on the horizon and the recent approval to sell H20 chips to China, this pattern could be setting the stage for another breakout. Will NVDA continue its impressive rally, or is this just a breather before the next move?
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by impossiblebull
1
Is it finally time for a rally?Looking at NVIDIA (NVDA) on the weekly chart over the past two years, a significant gap up becomes apparent around April, which persisted for much of the year. Considering the recent news and the stock's pullbacks lately, this may be the moment for NVDA to resume its upward grind. The coming weeks will reveal its direction. Additionally, it's worth noting the formation of a massive bull pennant on the weekly chart. If history repeats itself and this pattern holds, the next 2 to 6 weeks could prove to be a thrilling period for NVDA.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by impossiblebull
NVDA Bulls in Control Above $170? TA for July16Options Flow and Technical Setup🔥 🧠 GEX & Options Flow Analysis * GEX Map Summary: * Highest Call Wall & Gamma Resistance: $172.50 * Major GEX Clusters: $175–$178 → Layered GEX zones, strong positive sentiment * PUT Support: $162.5 — This is the highest negative NetGEX zone and key downside defense * IVR: 4.8 (Low) * IVx: 40.6 (Decaying vol environment) * Options Skew: 16.5% CALL-dominant bias — Traders leaning bullish. 🧩 Options Trading Suggestions: * Bullish Play (Preferred Bias): * Above $170, bulls can look for a push into $172.5 → $175 range. * Suggested Strategy: * Buy: $172.5 or $175 CALL (0DTE or 7/19 expiry) * Condition: NVDA must hold above $170.00 on pullbacks * Risk: Use $167.5 as a mental stop * Target: $175–$178 possible gamma magnet if volume kicks in * Bearish Hedge (if 170 fails): * Below $167.5, NVDA could revisit $165 or $162.5 PUT wall * Put Entry Idea: $165 PUT (7/19) * Only if price shows CHoCH + BOS confirmation 🧠 1H Chart + SMC Price Action Breakdown * Market Structure: BOS continuation → price consolidating below BOS high * Current Box: NVDA trapped in a tight SMC range between $167.89–$172.81 * CHoCH Zone: None yet. We’re in a healthy bull flag consolidation pattern 🔍 Trading Scenarios: * Bullish Setup: * Wait for breakout above $172.5 * If price closes above and retests → long to $175, $178 * Alternatively, accumulate calls if price bounces from $170 with strength * Bearish Setup: * Watch $167.89 → a CHoCH and BOS below this opens $165, $162.5 * Be cautious: this is a bullish structure unless macro news hits ✅ Final Thoughts: NVDA remains one of the strongest charts on the board. The consolidation under $172.5 is healthy, and GEX flow shows bullish momentum building. As long as $170 holds, this setup favors long trades, especially toward $175–$178. Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own due diligence and manage risk properly.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BullBearInsights
Nvidia Hits New Highs, But Is the Rally Losing Steam?NVIDIA (NVDA) just keeps climbing in 2025! It's been an incredible run, fueled by insatiable demand for AI technology and a wave of investor optimism. The stock has rocketed to fresh highs, pushing its P/E ratio above 54. That's way higher than what we typically see in the industry, making many wonder if it's getting a bit too pricey. Now, looking at the charts, NVDA was actually caught in a rising wedge pattern. Think of it like a funnel narrowing at the top – it often hints that a stock might be ready for a pullback. Last week, it seemed to break out of the top of that wedge, which usually signals more good times ahead. But here's the kicker: this breakout happened on weakening momentum. Both the RSI (a measure of how fast prices are changing) and trading volume were telling a different story, showing a divergence that suggests the underlying buying power might be fading. So, despite this impressive climb, these technical signals are whispering a word of caution. While the overall uptrend is still intact, that fading strength behind the move could mean we're heading for some consolidation or even a short-term pullback. Investors might want to keep a close eye on things and wait for clearer signs before jumping in at these elevated levels. (Disclaimer : This is not financial advice. Always do your own research)
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Abirstock
NVIDIA Robbery Plan: Bullish Swing Trade to Millions!🔥 NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Heist Blueprint: Unlock Bullish Profits with Thief Trading Style! 🚀💰 🌟 Greetings, Wealth Warriors! 🌟 Hello, Ciao, Salaam, Bonjour, Hola, and Hallo to all you savvy traders and market masterminds! 🤑💸 Get ready to execute a high-octane trading plan with our Thief Trading Style—a bold fusion of technical precision and fundamental insights designed to crack the NVIDIA (NVDA) stock market vault! 💥📈 📝 The NVIDIA Heist Plan: Swing & Day Trading Mastery 🏆 Based on our proprietary Thief Trading Style, this plan targets NVIDIA (NVDA), currently riding a bullish wave fueled by strong fundamentals and technical setups. Follow the strategy outlined below to navigate the high-risk Red Zone—where overbought conditions, consolidation, and potential trend reversals create opportunities for sharp traders. 💪 Stay alert, as bearish players may set traps at key levels! 🕵️‍♂️ Entry Strategy: Crack the 🙂Vault! 🏦 Go long with confidence! The market is primed for a bullish breakout. Enter at current prices or set buy limit orders near recent swing lows/highs on the 15-minute or 30-minute timeframe. 📅 Pro Tip: Set price alerts on your chart to catch the optimal entry. Timing is everything in this heist! ⏰ Swing Traders: Look for pullbacks to key support levels for safer entries. Scalpers: Focus on quick long-side trades with tight stops to maximize gains. 💨 Stop Loss: Protect Your Loot! 🔒 Place your stop loss (SL) below the recent swing low on the 30-minute timeframe (e.g., $162.00 for swing trades). Adjust your SL based on your risk tolerance, position size, and number of orders. For larger accounts, consider tighter stops to lock in gains early. 🛡️ Scalpers: Use a trailing stop to secure profits while riding short-term momentum. Take Profit Target: Cash Out Big! 💰 Aim for $191.00 as the primary target, or exit early if momentum slows. Swing Traders: Hold for the full target if the trend remains strong. Scalpers: Grab quick profits on smaller price spikes and re-enter on dips. Pro Move: Use a trailing stop to let profits run while safeguarding gains. 🚀 📌Key Levels & Risk Management Entry Zone: Market price or swing low – ideal for long positions. 📈 Stop Loss: $162.00 – based on 30m timeframe swing low. 🛑 Take Profit Target: $191.00 – primary target for swing/day trades. 🎯 Risky Red Zone: Overbought levels – watch for consolidation or reversal traps. ⚠️ 💡 Why NVIDIA? The Bullish Case 📡 NVIDIA (NVDA) is powering through a bullish phase, driven by: Fundamentals: Strong demand for AI, gaming, and data center chips. 📊 Macro Factors: Positive market sentiment and tech sector momentum. 🌍 COT Data (Latest Friday Update, UTC+1): Large speculators are increasing bullish positions, signaling confidence in NVDA’s upside (data sourced from reliable platforms). 📅 Geopolitical & News: Monitor upcoming earnings and industry developments for catalysts. 📰 Intermarket Analysis: Tech-heavy indices like the NASDAQ are trending higher, supporting NVDA’s rally. 📈 For a deeper dive, check fundamental reports, COT data, and sentiment analysis to align your trades with the bigger picture. 🔍 ⚠️ Trading Alert: Navigate News & Volatility 🗞️ News releases can spark sharp price swings. To protect your capital: Avoid new trades during major news events (e.g., earnings or Fed announcements). 🚫 Use trailing stops to lock in profits and limit downside risk. 🔐 Stay updated with real-time market developments to adjust your strategy dynamically. 📡 🚀 Boost the Heist! Support the Thief Trading Community 🤝 Love this plan? Hit the Boost Button to amplify our Thief Trading Style and empower our community to conquer the markets! 💥 Every like and share fuels our mission to make money with precision and style. 💪 Join us daily to unlock more high-profit heist plans! 🏴‍☠️ 📌 Important Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes only and not personalized investment advice. Always conduct your own research, assess your risk tolerance, and verify market conditions before trading. Markets move fast—stay sharp and adapt! ⚡ 🌟 Stay tuned for the next heist plan, traders! Let’s keep stealing profits together! 🤑🐱‍👤🎉
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by The-Thief
THRIVING IN CHAOSAs elections draws near, the result/outcome will definitely affect the financial market so WHY WILL NVIDIA GROW EVEN WITH THE WW3 LOOMING? 1.NVIDIA is the leaser in the artificial intelligence(AI) and data centre industries, largely due its cutting edge GPUS. These GPUs are essential for training large AI models like OpenAI's GBT series and other machine learning systems. 2.The company's AI- focused hardware, particularly the H100 GPUs ,is essential for training deep learning models ,autofocus vehicles and cloud based AI system 3.NVIDIA is branching into automotive AI and autofocus driving technology, partnering with companies like Mercedes and other automakers to provide the computing power needed for autonomous vehicles. 4.This company has has seen enormous growth in its data centre segment, which now contributes significantly to its revenue 6.The company has made strategic acquisitions, such as MELLANOX, which expanded its data centre and networking capabilities AS TECHNOLOGY CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ,NVIDIA WILL BE THE CENTRE OF ATTENTION. LONG TERM BUY There is a bullish structure that has been formed( w pattern) inside a bullish triangle showing a continuation bull movement/mometum coming . good luck on the longs
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by ForxTay
18
Weekly Close: Still Bullish, But Momentum Is SlowingNVDA closed the week at $172.41, just under short-term resistance and holding well above the prior rising wedge structure. Price action remains technically bullish, with a healthy consolidation forming just below the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $174.04. That said, momentum is beginning to cool, and the next few sessions will be key. 📊 Current Read: Mildly Bullish Price is holding above key support levels: 9 EMA, $170.85, and prior wedge resistance No breakdowns — structure remains intact However, volume is fading, and MACD is flattening, suggesting possible buyer fatigue RSI remains elevated, not yet signaling reversal, but approaching caution territory A confirmed breakout above $174.25 sets the stage for Fibonacci targets at: 🔸 $176.62, $179.20, $182.87, and $187.55 A close below $170.85 , and especially $168, would invalidate the current bullish structure and shift bias to bearish — targeting the $151.31–148.67 support zone. Summary: 📈 Bias: Bullish - but cautious. Price is consolidating near highs with no signs of breakdown yet. Continuation likely if bulls step in early next week.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
3 Reasons Why Nvidia (NVDA) Looks Bullish Right Now🚀 3 Reasons Why Nvidia (NVDA) Looks Bullish Right Now Nvidia is showing strong signs of a bullish breakout. Here are 3 solid technical reasons why NVDA could be ready to lift off 📈 1️⃣ Candlestick pattern – long lower shadow The long lower shadow signals buyers stepped in after early selling pressure. This shows strong demand at lower prices — classic bullish behavior. 2️⃣ High daily volume Nvidia is trading on increased volume today, confirming that big players are active. High volume validates the price action and increases the reliability of the bullish setup. 3️⃣ Reversal on the volume oscillator The volume oscillator is reversing from below zero, signaling momentum may be shifting back to the bulls. This indicates a potential trend change just before a new rally begins. 🔥 Bonus: Rocket Booster Strategy NASDAQ:NVDA fits the Rocket Booster Strategy: Price is above the 50 EMA Price is above the 200 EMA A recent gap up confirmed by candlestick support When all these factors align, it’s like lighting the engines for a bullish liftoff. Rocket boost this content to learn more --- ⚠️ Disclaimer: Always use a simulation (demo) account before trading with real money. Learn proper risk management and profit-taking strategies to protect your capital.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by lubosi
NVDA - Going VerticalNVDA has continue to see our near vertical trajectory to the upside. After yesterday's test of our blue trendline on the daily at $160 price bounced and has now moved up to $170. Due to the angle of this trend we will break to the downside very soon, but most likely not before some sort of blow off top move towards the $200 level. It is possible we continue to go vertical but just below $200 seems to be where the major level is to see some take profit start occurring. Also market structure has been super strong which you can see by the retest and hold of the $153 level (yellow dotted line). This was the previous ATH that NVDA recently created as a new level of support with that retest.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by VIAQUANT
1
NVDA SELL SELL SELLSELL NVDA at any price now, riding it back down to 93.00 to 77.00 as Profit Targets, Stop Loss will be determine later! If anyone likes long mumbo jumbo garbage analysis, than this is NOT for you. Also, if you are afraid of risk, failure, and want only a 100% sure thing, than run as fast as you can from the market, because the market is NOT a sure thing, so it is definitely NOT for you. WARNING: This is just opinions of the market and its only for journaling purpose. This information and any publication here are NOT meant to be, and do NOT constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a RISKY business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by pstock123
1
NVDA SELLSELL NVDA at 149.00 to 163.00, riding it back down to 93.00 to 77.00 as Profit Targets, Stop Loss is at 172.00! If anyone likes long mumbo jumbo garbage analysis, than this is NOT for you. Also, if you are afraid of risk, failure, and want only a 100% sure thing, than run as fast as you can from the markets, because the markets are NOT a sure thing, so it is definitely NOT for you. WARNING: This is just my opinions of the market and its only for journaling purpose. This information and any publication here are NOT meant to be, and do NOT constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations. Trading any market instrument is a RISKY business, so do your own due diligence, and trade at your own risk. You can loose all of your money and much more.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by pstock123
3
NVIDIA -- Major Resistance // Confluence of 3 FactorsHello Traders! WOW... This chart is quite incredible I must say. It's amazing how price is currently at an exact point where 2 major trendlines converge which also nearly coincides with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. Price closed almost to the penny just above the major trendline connecting the prior highs. It will be very interesting to see what price does over the next few days. What Does These Converging Trendlines Mean?: Think of a trendline like a wall... Depending on how "strong" the trendline is, this wall could be made from wood all the way through to vibranium straight from Captain Americas shield! These two trendlines converging would likely resemble a steel wall and would be extremely hard to penetrate. (Although there are no gurantees in trading) What To Watch For: I will be watching to see if price can both break and confirm above both resistance trendlines. It will take MEGA buying pressure to accomplish this and would likely mean continuation to the upside. If price cannot break and confirm above then we will likely see a large retrace to support. Thanks everyone and best of luck on your trading journeys!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by natef1
NVDA Bullish Weekly Trade Setup** – 2025-07-29 📈 **NVDA Bullish Weekly Trade Setup** – 2025-07-29 🚀 *"Momentum meets money flow!"* ### 🔍 Market Snapshot: * 💥 **Call/Put Ratio**: 2.47 → Bullish sentiment confirmed * 🧠 **RSI**: Rising on Daily & Weekly → Momentum building * 🔕 **Low VIX**: Favors call strategies (cheap premiums) * ⚠️ **Caution**: Light volume = soft institutional backing --- ### 🔧 Recommended Options Trade: **🟢 NVDA \$182.50 CALL (Exp: Aug 1)** 💰 *Entry*: \~\$0.53 (Mid) 📈 *Profit Target*: \$0.69 – \$1.06 🛑 *Stop Loss*: \$0.32 📆 *DTE*: 3 days 🔄 *Entry Timing*: Market Open ✅ *Confidence*: 75% 🔥 *Theta & Gamma Risk*: Elevated — manage position size! --- ### 💡 Why This Trade? ✅ RSI Strength across timeframes ✅ Flow favors upside ✅ Cheap premium in a low-volatility regime 🟡 Just watch that volume… --- 📊 **TRADE SNAPSHOT (JSON):** ```json { "instrument": "NVDA", "direction": "call", "strike": 182.50, "expiry": "2025-08-01", "confidence": 0.75, "profit_target": 1.06, "stop_loss": 0.32, "size": 10, "entry_price": 0.53, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-07-29 11:59:10 UTC-04:00" } ``` --- 📣 **Taglines for Sharing:** * "NVDA setup is 🔥—momentum + flow = GO!" * "Gamma risk is real—but so is this profit window 💸" * "Short-term sprint or fade? This call has range."
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by quantsignals
2
Fat Tails: Why Mean Reversion is a Rarity in Financial MarketsIn financial markets, volatility is a measure of how much asset prices change over time. Traditionally, finance assumes that asset returns fit neatly into a "bell-shaped" normal distribution curve. This implies that prices usually stay close to their average, and extreme surges or drops (beyond three standard deviations) are very rare, with approximately a 0.3% probability. However, reality consistently refutes these expectations, showing that powerful fluctuations occur much more frequently in markets. This is the phenomenon of "fat tails".   What are "Fat Tails"? "Fat tails" occur when the probability of large price changes (up or down) is significantly higher than predicted by a normal distribution. Instead of a neat "bell-shaped" curve, we see distributions with "thick tails," like Lévy, Pareto, or Cauchy distributions. Such distributions are characterized by "excess kurtosis" (kurtosis > 3). Kurtosis is a statistical measure that shows the "peakedness" of a distribution and the "thickness of its tails." If kurtosis > 3, the tails are "heavier" than those of a normal distribution, and the peak is often higher—meaning that small deviations from the mean also occur more frequently, but extreme events are not as rare as they seem. These distributions better describe how markets behave, especially volatile ones like cryptocurrencies, where extreme movements happen 5-10 times more frequently than normal distribution models would predict.   For example, in October 1987 (Black Monday), the Dow Jones index plummeted by 22% in a single day—an event that a normal distribution would estimate as practically impossible. In 2020, WTI crude oil prices turned negative (–$40 per barrel), which also doesn't fit standard models. And Bitcoin, throughout its history, has repeatedly shown daily movements of ±20%, which is 50–100 times more frequent than a Gaussian distribution would predict. Imagine two graphs: Gaussian Bell Curve (Normal Distribution): Most events fall within ±3σ, and extremes are almost imperceptible. Fat-Tailed Distribution (e.g., Pareto): The "tails" are thick, and rare events (like crises) stand out like icebergs. These cases illustrate why classical risk models like VaR often fail. Let's explore how science attempts to address this problem. What Does This Mean for Risk? "Fat tails" change the rules of the game for risk management. Nassim Taleb, a prominent voice on this topic, argues that they invalidate conventional methods of financial analysis. Standard estimates of the mean, variance, and typical outliers of financial returns become unreliable. Models like VaR (Value at Risk), which rely on a normal distribution, often underestimate how badly things can go wrong. They are simply unprepared for "black swans"—rare but devastating events that can crash the market. As Taleb stated, "ruin is more likely to come from a single extreme event than from a series of bad episodes".   "Tail risk" is when an asset or portfolio experiences a significant change in value (more than three standard deviations from its current price) due to an unusual and unexpected event. Such events not only impact prices but can also trigger panic, liquidity issues, and spill over into other markets.   Although "fat tails" seem obvious, some economists (e.g., proponents of the efficient market hypothesis) argue that extreme events are merely rare but explainable deviations. They contend that if all factors (geopolitics, liquidity changes) are properly accounted for, the distribution isn't as "heavy-tailed" as it appears. However, the crises of 2008 and 2020 demonstrated that even the most sophisticated models often underestimate tail risk.   How Does Science Address "Fat Tails"? To grapple with these tails, researchers have developed several approaches: Extreme Value Theory (EVT): This method focuses specifically on the "tails" of the distribution to better predict extreme events. EVT helps to more accurately estimate risks and VaR, especially when a normal distribution clearly doesn't apply, and data more closely resembles Fréchet or Pareto distributions. Jump-Diffusion Models: These models explicitly incorporate sudden, discontinuous price changes, or "jumps," in addition to continuous diffusion movements. Robert Merton, as early as 1976, proposed combining smooth price movements with Poisson jumps to better describe the market. Jumps are interpreted as "abnormal" price variations caused by important news or systemic shocks.   Intraday Data Analysis: Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2004) developed a method to decompose total price variation into a continuous component and a jump component using high-frequency data. This helps to more accurately forecast how much the market can fluctuate. GARCH Models: These models capture "volatility clustering"—the tendency for periods of high volatility to be followed by more high volatility, and periods of calm by more calm.   But if "fat tails" are so prevalent, why do many still believe in "mean reversion"? Here's the catch... Why Mean Reversion Doesn't Work The idea of "mean reversion" is that asset prices or returns will eventually revert to their long-term average. It's popular in finance, but with "fat tails," it's not so simple: Unstable Mean: In markets with "fat tails," the "mean" itself is constantly shifting. If the average value is unstable, then talking about reverting to it becomes less predictable and meaningful. Moreover, in such distributions, the sample mean often doesn't align with the theoretical mean.   Extreme Events Dominate: A single powerful fluctuation can turn everything upside down. Instead of "returning to normal," the market can enter a new regime of high volatility for an extended period.   Jumps Are Not Just Noise: Significant price changes due to news or shocks are not temporary outliers that can be easily smoothed out. They represent serious risks that cannot simply be waited out.   Volatility Clustering: Markets tend to "get stuck" in periods of high or low fluctuations. After a strong move, the market may not calm down but continue to fluctuate, which breaks the idea of mean reversion. Interestingly, "fat tails" arise not only from fundamental reasons but also from irrational crowd behavior. When the market falls, investors massively sell assets, exacerbating the crisis (a positive feedback effect). This explains why tails are "heavier" in cryptocurrencies—there are more speculators and fewer institutional players stabilizing the market.   Conclusion Mean reversion works only in "calm" times when the market behaves predictably. But in reality, "fat tails" and powerful fluctuations are not rare, but a part of financial market life. To cope with this unpredictability, more sophisticated models and risk approaches are needed. Understanding "fat tails" is key to managing risks in the chaotic financial world.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by flibusters
NVDA Follow-Up: Breakout Holding, But Still on Thin IceIn yesterday’s post, I highlighted the rising wedge pattern and noted that a breakout above $168 needed strong follow-through to confirm. Today, NVDA managed to hold above that level, closing at $171.37, just beneath the recent high of $172.40. So far, the breakout attempt is intact — but not yet convincing. 🔹 Volume came in lighter, suggesting buyers aren’t fully committed 🔹 The candle printed a modest gain, but without expanding range or momentum 🔹 Price is still riding above the rising wedge, but hasn’t cleared resistance with authority As long as NVDA stays above $168, bulls remain in control — but a daily close back below that level would re-enter the wedge and raise the risk of a false breakout, putting $151–148 back on the radar. Until we see a strong breakout above $172.40 with volume, this remains a cautious breakout, not a confirmed one.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup
NVDA Update: Breakout Fading or Wedge Still in Play?In my last post, I highlighted the rising wedge pattern forming at the top of NVDA’s strong rally. Price briefly pushed above the upper wedge resistance and tagged $172.40, but today’s session printed a bearish close at $170.70 — just above the breakout level, but with no real follow-through. Volume came in higher, but price action failed to extend the breakout, suggesting this could be a stall or even a false breakout in progress. RSI remains overbought, and momentum may be slowing despite the recent push. If price slips back below $168, we could see the original wedge breakdown scenario come back into play. Watch for support around: 🔹 $151.31–148.67 🔹 Below that: $125 zone For bulls, continuation above $172.40 with strong volume would invalidate this pattern and confirm breakout strength. Until then, caution is warranted.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by CryptocurrencyWatchGroup