Goldman Says $4K – My Chart Says Sell💥📉 Gold Analysis – Divergences, Resistance, and a Short Bias 🪙⚠️
Hey Traders,
As promised in the latest video, here's the official chart update for Gold – and the message is clear: I'm short.
📊 What I See on the Chart
We're now well below the 3,446 resistance, with early signs of weakness showing up across multiple timeframes. I’ve laid out both the 2-Day and 4H charts in this post, and here’s what I’m tracking:
⚠️ Technical Warning Signs:
🔻 2D chart: Six bearish divergences
– RSI, Stochastic, CCI, OBV, MFI, and MACD all flashing red
📉 1D chart: Same thing — six divergences, telling me momentum is fading
⏳ 4H chart: Price action breaking trendlines, and support at 3,237 looks shaky
🚨 If that breaks, my main support zone is at $3,000 – and that’s where I believe we’re heading.
This is not just a pullback. This is the kind of confluence you can’t ignore if you trade technically.
🔁 Sentiment Shift
Back in December '22 and again earlier this year, I was long Gold – and it was the right call. But now?
📌 This chart has gone from momentum to exhaustion.
📌 I see less demand, softer momentum, and strong bearish divergence stacking across every major timeframe I watch.
🎯 Trade View
✅ I’m short Gold.
🎯 Targeting the $3,000–3,050 zone.
📉 Invalidated if we reclaim and close above $3,446 with strength.
It’s that simple. Nothing personal – just structure, divergence, and flow.
🧠 The Chart vs. The Narrative
Recently, I saw a note from Goldman Sachs forecasting $4,000 Gold. Maybe they’re right.
But I’ll be honest with you – I don’t buy the media hype.
I'm not here for the headlines.
I'm a chart guy. Always have been. Always will be.
The chart is the map to the treasure – and that’s the only thing I follow.
🧠 I cover this and the broader macro setup (Dollar, BTC, DAX, Tech, BTC.D, and more) in the full 20-min video just dropped. If you haven’t watched it yet, go catch up — it explains the logic and why this isn’t just a gold story.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
XAUTRY1! trade ideas
Shorting gold again Well, it does look like there is still some room for a short trade that might actually hit.
Personally, iam not 100% confident in this trade, but i would have liked to see more confirmations before taking the short entry, yet still i think it is still worth the risk.
if you want more confirmations then here is the thing, wait the price to close below this yellow line, and i mean a close not a wick, then wait the price to pullback and take a short position.
my confidence in this setup is 6 out of 10.
Ethereum vs. Gold Chart Comparison – Potential Explosive The comparison between Micro Gold Futures (MGC1!) and Ethereum (ETHUSDT) on the weekly timeframe suggests that Ethereum could be mirroring gold’s price structure before its parabolic breakout.
Key Similarities Between Gold & Ethereum:
Impulse Leg Formation 🔥
Both assets formed a strong impulse leg after a significant low.
The Ethereum impulse leg started from the ~$1,530 low, pushing toward ~$4,000 before retracing into accumulation.
Gold followed a similar pattern, forming a strong rally before consolidation.
Accumulation Range
Both charts show a clear accumulation phase after the impulse leg.
Gold accumulated sideways for an extended period before exploding to the upside.
Ethereum is currently within its accumulation range, suggesting that it could be preparing for a similar breakout.
This is a shakeout phase designed to trap weak hands before the real move.
Standard Deviation Extensions (STDVN) & Key Levels 🎯
Both charts use standard deviation extensions (STDVN) to project potential short-term targets.
0.5 STDVN & 1 STDVN levels are crucial areas where price could react.
Gold blasted through these levels after breaking out of accumulation.
If Ethereum follows suit, 5,288 (0.5 STDVN) and 6,605 (1 STDVN) could be in play.
Previous Highs Acting as Support/Resistance
Gold broke past its old high, retested, and surged.
Ethereum is still hovering below its previous major high (~4,800).
If Ethereum flips this level into support, it could send price into price discovery mode.
What This Means for Ethereum 🚀
Gold already showed the path—Ethereum is lagging but setting up similarly.
Volatility is part of the process—shakeouts happen before the breakout.
Holding ETH through this phase could be crucial if history repeats itself.
A breakout beyond the accumulation range could send ETH towards $5,200 - $6,600+ in the short term.
Beyond 1 STDVN, ETH enters uncharted territory—an all-time high breakout could be explosive.
Final Thoughts from Lord MEDZ 👑
Not financial advice, but I’m holding ETH through the chop. The last shakeout before an all-time high run is often the toughest. But the chart comparison is clear: Gold did it first. Ethereum could be next.
🔥 Patience. Conviction. Execution. 🔥
Gold Short Source, Trust me bro.
I mean well its in a downtrend and the price just keeps hitting lower, the 4h reacting very bearishly and the 1 day also didnt say much more than daily downtrend (recently).
So i think i have good confidence in this trade as i took the long pullback trade yesterday and the price showed that its respecting my analysis, so i would assume this will work out.
Gold Trade Setup – Long Invalidated, Watching Retest for ShortGold has been consolidating between $3,200 and $3,500, recently pressing against a descending resistance line that has rejected price several times. I was favoring the upside, but our long setup was invalidated — the stop loss at $3,330 was hit.
Price is now retesting ascending support, and I'm shifting focus to a short opportunity, using our previous long entry level (~$3,333) as a key area of interest for entries.
Here’s the updated plan:
Short Entry: Around $3,333
Stop Loss: $3,340
Take Profit: $3,303
Remaining cautious but opportunistic — the larger structure is vulnerable and could break further if support fails.
Retail trapped. Volume confirmed. Liquidity targeted.🔻 We are in a highly reactive zone where emotional long entries and early short SLs create perfect liquidity magnets.
🔍 Key Levels & Zones:
• Early Short SL Zone → 3337.2
• Retail FOMO Entry Block → 3251.9
• Volume-based Rejection Point → 3392.0 (SL/TP sweep)
• TP1 & TP2 Zones → 3251.9 / 3208.0
• Bonus TP → 3159.9 → Complete sweep of long SLs and demand exhaustion
• Final Trap Exit Zone → 3157.4 — Institutional reload zone
💡 Volume confirms this cycle of:
• Trap > SL hunt > Emotional entry > Volume fade > Dump > Accumulation > Reversal
🧠 This is NOT financial advice. I post to share deeper insight into manipulation mechanics & sniper-level liquidity structure analysis.
If you’re still trading candles, you’re playing retail games. Start seeing the architecture.
🧷#XAUUSD #SmartMoney #LiquiditySweep #VolumeStrategy #TradingPsychology #RetailTrap #SniperMindset
Gold Futures Short Bias Into NY CloseGC is stalling beneath the 3330–3336 resistance cluster after failing to break out during NY session. Price rejected the fair value gap (3312–3318) and is now compressing just above the mean-reversion anchor (LWN). There’s no momentum reclaim from buyers, and structure suggests weakness into Friday.
We’re positioning short into expected downside continuation.
Key Levels
Reactive Resistance Cluster: 3330–3336
FVG (rejected): 3312–3318
Mean-Reversion Anchor (LWN): 3290–3300
Absorption Shelf (Target Zone): 3275
PDH/PDL (provisional): 3325 / 3280
VWAP: Flattened, near 3302
Short Setup (Active)
Entry: 3332
Stop: 3340
TP1: 3305 – Mean reversion
TP2: 3288 – LWN sweep
TP3: 3275 – Absorption shelf
Staakd Setup: 1:5.7 R:R to final target
Bias confirmed by rejection from inefficiency and absence of buyer follow-through
QM Probabilities
Bear Move 60–65% Structure favoUrs continued rejection + flush to 3275
Bull Move 35–40% Requires reclaim of 3318 + aggressive close above VWAP
Range/Flat Possible pre-close Tight range unless displaced overnight
Staakd Bias:
Structure is holding beneath resistance. Without a reclaim of 3318, we remain short-biased into Friday with eyes on 3275. Probability favours continuation unless buyers reclaim initiative fast.
Follow for post-close recap and updated levels ahead of Friday's NY open and we hope your trades worked out how you expected today.
Early impulsive action got me active! This was a move I was looking to happen yesterday but got slapped trying. It just rocks out like that some time and you have to wait for the next opportunity. In this move early and looking for it to continue if it can hold well above yesterdays high. Trailing stop with every 50 ticks cause anything can happen turning price around and I dont want to give to much back.
Extremely bullish on gold I am long Gold, 1hr breaker after attacking sellside mutiple times, dxy is correcting right now as well. its wednesday so we could see mid week reversal, we also have equal highs. We are also inversing a 1hr fvg (RED) which adds confluence with the breaker. solid setup, invalidation is 3303 and tp is 3372.
Mixed market for GOLDHard to frame an idea for gold because the dxy looks strong and gold looks strong as well, indicating to me a mixed market. Sitting on the sidelines for gold is probably the better bet right now because we just had a sweep of buyside liquidty and tapped back into a daily fvg. Notice the candles, and how they didnt close above the swing high. So because gold looks bullish and dxy looks bullish, im not interested in gold for tuesday trading. But if i had to pikc, we continue up for gold and attacck that buyside/ eqaul highs
Gold will continue with its bullish breakoutLooking for new highs to be made. Price has pushed bullish as trump started talking about the tariffs early today. Even though they are not supposed to discuss till the 9th. We can get a early move for the week. Monitoring the price action to see if I can get in where I fit in!
Gold Futures (GC1!) – Accumulation Brewing? Major Move IncomingGold has been stuck in a tight range since April, and to me, this looks like a textbook accumulation zone forming on the daily chart.
Price is coiling within a defined box, showing signs of both strength and weakness — classic behavior before a manipulative move (fake breakout) followed by distribution (true direction). This is where many traders get trapped, chasing the first breakout — only to get caught before the actual move begins.
I’m not committed to a direction yet, but here’s my roadmap:
🧠 First breakout = likely trap (manipulation)
🧭 Wait for confirmation of rejection/failure, then prepare for the real move out of the range
This kind of price behavior often precedes explosive volatility, so I’m watching closely for:
False breakouts above or below the box
Volume spikes or traps
Shift in market structure on lower timeframes
📍 No trade for now, but I’ll be reacting — not predicting.
What’s your bias? Do you think the breakout will hold or fake out?
Will The new Week kick off more bullish Pressure for GOLD?looking for more bullish activity this week but need to sit on my hands for now to see if they establish a Low for the week first. Once we see that and start to see HH's made then we can consider a entry to get in on the move. I cant rush it though. Have to be patient.
Gold Futures Trade Plan / July 21, 2025Overview
This trade plan reflects a comprehensive view of gold futures (GC) going into the week of July 21, 2025. The analysis draws from current macroeconomic factors, positioning data, technical structure, and live order flow behavior. Every component has been evaluated to ensure the bias is not emotional or speculative but firmly evidence based.
Macro Landscape
• 10-Year TIPS real yield is firmly above 2.00% > historically a major headwind for gold.
• The US Dollar Index (DXY) has formed a weekly reversal and is pushing for higher highs. A firming USD puts downward pressure on gold.
• No current geopolitical or financial panic exists to justify a fear-based safe-haven bid.
• Fed remains hawkish, with no indication of immediate easing. This sustains real yield elevation and removes policy-driven upside risk for gold.
COT Report (as of July 15, 2025)
• Funds (CTAs): Net long +213,115 — added +8,542 longs, cut -1,605 shorts.
• Commercials: Net short -250,688 — added +16,448 shorts (heavy hedging).
• Retail: Net long +37,573 — also increasing long exposure.
→ Interpretation: Market is heavily long. Commercials are unloading risk at these prices. High top risk.
→ When funds are this long and commercials are this short, it's a strong contrarian signal.
→ Fade setups tend to work best when commercials are defending structure (which we see via Bookmap).
> Commercials are unloading gold to the euphoric buyers
>Retail is joining long side = late to the party
Funds are late, commercials are patient. If we break higher and fail, that’s my cue to fade like a shark
Sources:
FRED Real Yields: fred.stlouisfed.org
TradingView DXY: www.tradingview.com
FedWatch Tool: www.cmegroup.com
FED COT REPORT FOR COMMODITY EXCHANGE
Positioning and Demand
• Funds (CTAs) are net long +213k contracts >extremely crowded.
• COT DATA:
> Commercials added over +16k shorts, increasing their net short position to -250k.
> Retail is also long > a classic late-entry positioning profile.
• India imports hit a 14-month low in June. Demand is soft across jewelry and investment channels.
• China's SGE shows stable but unremarkable volume. No surge in open interest or delivery volume.
Sources:
COT Data: www.cftc.gov
India Market Update: www.gold.org
SGE Reports: www.en.sge.com.cn
Technical Structure
• Gold has been compressing between 3330–3375. The high-volume node sits at 3358, which is the point of control (POC).
• Price has failed multiple times above 3370–3375, forming long upper wicks on the daily.
• CVD diverging negatively against price action, suggesting exhaustion.
• Volume has decreased on each attempted breakout.
Order Flow Confirmation
• Bookmap shows consistent absorption between 3365–3380. Buyers are hitting, but price doesn’t move — classic sign of passive selling.
• CVD is rising while price is flat or turning > buyer aggression with no progress.
• No strong delta follow-through into resistance; no real liquidity chasing upside.
• Spoofing has been observed above 3372, which is often followed by trap reversals.
Resources:
Bookmap Platform: bookmap.com
Execution Plan
Macro-aligned swing trade. The plan is to fade into strength using confirmation from Bookmap and price structure.
>Laddered Short Entry Strategy
• First short: 3367.5 (light size, test absorption)
• Second short: 3371.5 (main entry, absorption confirmed)
• Optional add: 3374.5 (if spoof wall holds and delta fails again)
• Stop Loss: 3385.5 (above absorption, above recent swing structure)
→ This stop is placed beyond a level of clear invalidation, not where typical retail stops sit. It's meant to protect from fakeouts but still give the trade room to develop.
Targets
• Target 1: 3348.0 (value area low and VWAP zone)
• Target 2: 3332.5 (prior structural support, high-probability unwind level)
Final Signal
→ Short GCQ25 at 3371.5 if price pushes into 3370+ and fails to advance on rising delta.
→ Stop at 3385.5, targeting 3348 and 3332.
→ Trade is valid only if absorption is visible on Bookmap and delta stalls near the highs.
Probability:
92% short
8& invalidation, continuation higher
GOLD! Pre-Market Analysis For Friday July 18th!In this video, we'll present pre-market analysis and best setups for Friday July 18th.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
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Sweep On levels and Confirmation of Bullish pressure! Now that we have a sweep on levels we are looking for bullish pressure to continue. They have closed the 4Hr bullish. Being that it is Friday keeping expectation low cause price can break out and push hard or it can end up being Rotational. I feel there is a move here. We just have to wait for it to line up inside of the killzone. NOFOMO Mayn!