TACO about to become TUFTThe acronym "TACO" has been adopted as a market slogan to explain the shocking volatility brought on by Trump's follow through with his campaign promises to enact and/or adjust tariff's in the USA on its trading partners around the world. The mere mention resulted in a 1,334 point sell-of culminating in April. When Trump walked back {read: backed off in terms of immediacy of effect..} the market "rallied."
However, at the bottom of the lows, ES1=4,832, all strength fell out of the index and all Minor pattern lows were breached. This leads me to believe that 4,832 was just that...a LOW and not a bottom. To resolve this aspect of the price pattern in relation to strength, price and go for a higher low on less strength, or a lower low on more strength...either way, this can only result in a sell-off of .618 of 1,334, or approximately 824 points. Assuming participants intend to go lower on more strength, the bottom will be struck approximately 2,159 points lower in the 4,200 region, since this irregular B has complicated the direct 1.0 hit in the 4900 region. Still possible, but unlikely we swing within 100 points of the low, all while strength falls out and holders get brave.
The other problem I see with this wave higher is that it is sloppy. How?
(1) It is sloppy first of all because as it approached its 1.382 level off the first wave up (at least as noted by a premier Elliot Wave pub) it basically ripped right through. What is healthy for an impulse is to approach the 1.382, then pause for a retracement to the 1.0.
(2) The wave began with an obvious 3 wave pattern, and I was surprised to see prominent publications accepting such an obvious corrective pattern as the start of a true impulse upward. The 3 waves that took us to 5,528.75 are accordingly labeled as the A wave on this chart. Even if this is an Ending Diagonal, which is a motive wave, but not an impulse, which starts with 3 waves, we should at minimum get overlap at the 5,528.75 level in order to continue higher.
(3) We are getting mixed MACD readings between the daily and hourly charts right where price would be expected to blast off if the daily is correct and would be expected to fail if the hourly bearish divergence is correct.
As we approach this 1.618 level of 3,398.75 on ES2, off the pattern as stated, we can use it to guage the downside expectation. A direct hit and sell-off might lead us to the conclusion that the 4900s are in order or even 5400s, but a failure here, 10-20 points off, would be considered more bearish. Giving the benefit of the doubt to price, I have included various ways that price can regain its footing, here stating a primary count that this is the Minor A of an intermediate (B) wave, because it has been very bullish, very disorganized, and has created a higher MACD reading on the daily chart. Alt count is that this is All of Intermediate (B), and Intermediate C should commence to carry price into the low 4k region.
If price is to go higher, it must overcome a 3 wave start, an irregular and disorganized pattern, and conflicting strength readings...not to mention, a Fundamental hurdle that Trump Ultimately Follows Through.
