ISP1! trade ideas
Backtest $ES 15 minTest for analysis of trend with OBR in 15 min. Testing the possibility to OBR in NYSE:ES
MES Futures – ORB Strategy Long from London Open Range BreakDescription:
Executed a clean ORB long trade on MES during the London session, with confirmation from the 5-min chart and structure mapped on the 15-min.
Setup Breakdown:
Session: London Open
Strategy: Opening Range Breakout (ORB)
Entry: Break of ORB high with confluence from 15-min demand zone + EMA support
Stop: Below session low and structural demand
Target: Previous session high & key 1HR supply zone
T echnical Context:
Price rejected from previous session low and formed a clear ORB range.
After consolidation, a strong bullish candle broke above the range high with increasing volume and EMA cross.
Trade was managed up to the previous session high and partials secured before price met the diagonal resistance trend line.
Key Zones:
✅ Entry Zone: 6270.00
🟥 Stop Loss: ~6260.25
🎯 Target Area: 6287.75 (Previous Session High)
🟥 15-min Supply overhead could pose resistance
Staakd Rating: ★★★★☆
(Rated 4/5 for textbook ORB play, clean risk:reward, and structure alignment)
Wait and seeThe S&P 500 daily chart structurally is in a “wait and see”mode. It is waiting for additional information regarding tariffs and the Fed minutes coming out on Wednesday. I think the bias is still for moved to the upside.
Profit takingMondays structure in the S&P 500 daily chart implies profit-taking in a move back toward the upside is expected.
Market UpdateI have had no trade signals on my strategy for two days.
The market is very so but it will not last forever.
Are We Completing the Larger Ending Diagonal Now?The last time I updated followers of my work; I stated that the pattern was advancing, but NOT with confidence, and that it is marked with choppy, overlapping price action that appears to be an ending diagonal. Those sentiments have not changed.
However, what has changed is I was forecasting a more pronounced drop first before getting to new highs. It is now possible; this move higher is completing that move on a more immediate basis. Although I cannot rule out the previous larger ABC... it is more likely once this high completes, it could represent the end of the bull market.
Only the structure of the decline will inform us what is playing out.
I will warn followers that once this more immediate high completes, I am expecting a forceful and swift reversal that will undoubtedly catch most traders off guard.
Best to all,
Chris
S&P 500 BULLISH BREAKOUT ABOVE ALL TIME HIGHS!Hey Traders taking a look at the S&P500 this week it is clear that we are in a strong bull market.
Notice that we broke above 6300 on the ES Futures Contract last week on July 3. This level is extremely important because it was the all time high from Feburary 2025. So now that the market has closed above this level buying opportunities can be considered at the trendline.
6135-6150 look like a good place to grab this bull again by the horns. 😁
So if your bullish wait for the pullback no need to chase the market imo. Eventually it will pullback lets see what happens July 9 WED with the Tarrifs.
Expect Volatility!
However if your bearish be very careful I don't think there is a good risk to reward ratio to shorting at this time.
Good Luck & Always use Risk Management!
(Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
Stock Index: ES, NQ, YM Weekly Update📈 S&P 500, Nasdaq & Dow Jones – All-Time Highs, But Caution Creeping In
🟩 S&P 500 | Nasdaq | Dow Jones
All three indices hit new all-time highs to close out June.
Powered by:
🔋 AI optimism
💰 Solid earnings
🕊️ Dovish Fed tone and falling bond yields
SPX continued its breakout run
Nasdaq surged as big tech led the charge
Dow followed with slower but steady strength
⚠️ But Watch the Signs Beneath the Surface
Consumer confidence dropped sharply
Home sales weakened
Fed speakers remained non-committal on cuts
All three indices now look extended — particularly Nasdaq
Momentum remains bullish, but these rallies are now resting on softening macro, yield compression, and hope that the Fed stays on hold.
🧠 Key Takeaway
Price action is euphoric — but fundamentals are flashing mixed signals.
When tech leads the market at extremes, volatility risk is elevated.
ES1! S&P500 Might Lose Momentum As Tariffs Deal Not Set...price could probably be testing all time highs. Before plunging....
if the volumes comes with it and reaches the all times high levels, that could be a nice short entry point for potential profits.
Otherwise, it could probably just fill the gap on week open and keep going down in a regular pattern until August as Trumps Tariffs Deals deadline is around that time possiblily...
14 day look ahead at ES spy futures
CME_MINI:ES1! I am watching fundamentals and any incoming tariff news this week (mostly for scalps on small timeframes). This is because of the Japan news reaction we saw last week which presented good opportunity.
Bear: I am watching price seek possible consolidation up here after being bullish at a strong upwards angle. I see small exhaustion being cooled off and possibly looking for more cooling until the middle of this week, I expect no serious price movement until Wednesday July 9, 2025. Watching that 4h green slanted trendline to break for scalping opportunities. If the white larger trendline is broken I will be considerably more bearish that we would likely reach a price of 5,805 or lower again, this would be a lot to ask but it is a location I would assume price would find solid support if reaching that area in the future weeks/ month. Watching horizontal lines for support this week specifically at price 6,271 to be broken or held. There looks like there is some slim price action (little support or resistance) from 6,100 to where we are now. This could push the downward volume quicker to the downside possibly presenting great opportunity for bears in the possible near future, if we break down below 6,197.
Bull: we are clearly in a macro bullish trend it is silly to decide we would all of a sudden drop significantly unless something obscene happens fundamentally. I step into this week assuming we will keep strong upward trendlines far above the macro (my white thick) trendline. watching fib extension levels for more upside since we are consolidating a bit already it would be easy to assume we will jump up to the .236 at 6,342 and even get to the .382 at 6,387 and higher. I still expect the ADX to cool down here in the beginning of the week if not all week. I also assume to see the rsi finish its bearish divergence off with a strong predicted sell off- but to reach higher highs after (buy the dip, trade the reaction, WAIT for the dip).
ES Short to 6274.50Grabbed 1 hour BSL on a shortened July 3rd trading day.
5 minute bearish market structure shift
1 hour bearish inverse fair value gap
Technicals ^
Participants ran the market higher into all time high's during the holiday week. Gathered shorts, and targetting 6274.50 as a meaningul 1 hour SSL level. Confluences with prior London open.
Logic ^
2025 Q1 + 6M/12M ranges 8h interim cycling bullish.
s1 @ 5554
r1 @ 5592
macro r1 @ 5738
sustain above and macro rotation pushes higher, r2 @ 5921.
its 8 days into the trading month and we've spent the entire 1M atr with extension to the downside.
8H / 1D interim rotation is bullish and no hh on di- since feb 27, despite almost a 500pt drop.
Extended boxes for 6M / 12M, and major levels noted for annual sup/res also marked.
In the last 20+ years, 12M candles closing red still printed an avg 4.74% H above the open; and after hitting lows, closed the year with an 9.97% rebound.
The rotation is a feature not a flaw.
Accept that it's fixed, and you'll see that nothing is broken.
You'll know the signal when you see it.
Appreciate the risk.
SPX Is Pure RiskAbsolutely insane for people to be saying things like "a new bull market" when it never ended. All of the risk is to the downside. If markets ran another 10% to the upside that gives investors a chance to determine if they want to buy a correction to see new highs or not. But to say that a bull market is coming is the antithesis of thinking when current risk is all downside.
This is risk management 101:
Lets say you have a SP:SPX target of 10,000, would you rather buy it at 6,500 where you know your downside is 7-8% or right here at 6300 with a potential downside of 22%+?
Who in the market is long right now? Everyone because all the short sellers are stopped out, and the dumbest of money the guys who just got promoted to the rank of captain in the branch of hindsight bought the "breakout."
The retracement to the highs has been one of the most hated rallies off of a bounce ever seen and why? Because it required a large amount of vibes and to a degree stupidity to buy where it bounced but it paid off. So if it was borderline stupid to do that, what does it mean to lever up at the top?
The correct method is to either be short here or be patient for a breakout with volume and a successful retest. There you can limit your downside and have nearly unlimited upside if it plays out that way.
ES, SPY, SPX will be testing key support on Sunday After a welcome rally into new highs for the s&p, there appears to be a critical crossroad forming. Using the ES continuous contract I have placed 2 anchored VWAP's. The first being anchored to the last higher low on Thursday, June 19. And the the second, being anchored to this last Thursdays high on July 3rd.
For this post we will call the anchor from June 19 - VWAP1. And for the July 3rd anchor - VWAP2
VWAP1 r1 has acted as a key support line since the higher low was set. Successfully bouncing and holding support several times.
As we headed lower on this Thursdays July 3rd session, we remained between the center and r1 of VWAP2 indicating strong selling pressure for the day. With it being a shortened trading day with less liquidity however, I have less concern over the days price action. The forming crossroads and the upcoming Sundays open will be more telling for where we likely head this week.
The blue Horizontal Line at 6266 is placed directly on VWAP1s r1 (green line) which has acted as support. If we trade into this level on the Sunday open, it's a clear signal the sellers are still in control. If however, price can consolidate at that level (6266) and form structure, a breakout of the structure would be evidence of sellers backing off and buyers stepping in creating a good buying opportunity for the week.
Another possible scenario, if we first manage to trade up into s1 of VWAP2 (orange line) around the 6300 level, I will be looking for a short scalp down to the r1 of VWAP1 at 6266. From here it would be prudent to sit and wait for more confirmation on if this is a reversal, or just another pullback in the uptrend.
These are my two trade setups and ideas for Sunday's open. Hope this analysis helps. Happy trading 🤙💰📈
Sellers have returnedSellers returned during the shortened session on Friday, July 4. The issue now is this profit-taking or has this market gotten so high that new sellers are entering the market. We will not have the final answer on that until next week and we see what type of follow through if any occurs in this market.
July 9, the next key date for the S&P 5001) Caution: the S&P 500 is now in short-term technical overbought territory and may enter a retracement (without jeopardizing the underlying uptrend)
Over the past two weeks, the S&P 500 future contract has technically broken above its all-time high of 6,150 points, thereby validating a signal that the underlying uptrend is continuing. The market has risen for several consecutive sessions without pausing, and is now overbought in the short term. From a purely technical point of view, the market is therefore exposed to a reversal, and a test of its former all-time high is a possible scenario for deflating short-term overboughtness and waiting for dynamic support.
The chart below shows the monthly, weekly and daily Japanese candlesticks for the S&P 500 future contract. You can see that there is still potential on the long-term timeframes, but the short-term framework (daily timeframe) is overbought in terms of momentum (momentum being represented here by the RSI technical indicator). The market will need to be able to hold the 6000/6150 technical support in order to preserve the uptrend in place since the beginning of April.
2) The US labor market remains resilient according to the latest NFP report, which is good news for the macro-economic situation, but postpones the FED rate cut
The US job market has just delivered an unexpected signal: the unemployment rate has fallen to 4.1% of the working population, after several months of stability around 4.2%. Although this drop may seem modest, it comes at a time when the Federal Reserve (Fed) is closely monitoring the labor market for signs of a more pronounced slowdown in economic activity. This drop in unemployment suggests that, despite the monetary tightening of the past two years, the US economy remains resilient. It is now unlikely that the FED will resume cutting the federal funds rate on Wednesday July 30.
3) BEWARE of the Wednesday July 9 deadline for trade agreements between the USA and its trading partners
US President Donald Trump has confirmed that the USA plans to send a series of official notifications to several trading partners from this Friday July 4, setting unilateral tariffs that will take effect from August 1. A dozen letters will be sent initially, followed by further mailings over the next few days. This marks a new stage in his strategy of pressuring foreign countries to conclude agreements before the deadline he had announced for Wednesday July 9.
At this stage, it seems unlikely that the Wednesday July 9 deadline will be extended. So it's important to bear in mind that the trend at the very beginning of next week will be directly influenced by the news coming in on the trade war/diplomacy. The S&P 500 index will react very directly to this information. We need trade agreements with China, India, the European Union and Japan if we are not to jeopardize the S&P 500's fundamental uptrend.
DISCLAIMER:
This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions.
This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior.
Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content.
The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services.
Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA.
Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law.
All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy.
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade.
Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties.
The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
SPX inflection point: Parabolic Up or Breakdown? See here the entire futures contract (ES front contract) history for the S and P. What becomes very clear from connecting the lows is that the S and P has been growing parabolic over its futures chart *entire* history.
So we are now at an inflection point in the stock market history. For the first time this year, we below the parabolic arc. It reclaimed it in May to only right now be bumping up against two major intersecting resistance lines.
If we break through, hold on to your hats because we are going wayyyyy higher. Just to keep the parabolic growth curve would put us 50% higher by next year. If we breakdown, look out below. There is no support below this parabolic arc and the implosion could be catastrophic.
Either way good luck and happy trading!
A positive close going into a holiday weekendA positive close in the S&P 500 daily chart is expected as we go into a holiday weekend. Buyers are present and ideally a close above 6345 would be an indicator of confidence as the weekend begins.
Shocking Market Move Revealed! Will Prices Soar or Crash?1. Market Context
Timeframe: The chart covers late June to early July 2025, with daily candlesticks showing recent price action.
Trend: The price has been in an uptrend, breaking resistance around 6,180.00 and testing 6,290.00-6,300.00. This suggests bullish momentum, but the move is nearing a key resistance zone.
2. Key Levels
Support: 6,180.00-6,200.00, where prior consolidation and moving averages align, offering a potential entry or stop-loss zone.
Resistance: 6,300.00 is a critical level. A break above could target 6,350.00, while failure might lead to a reversal.
Stop Loss: Place below support (e.g., 6,170.00) to protect against a breakdown, adjusting for your risk tolerance.
Take Profit: Aim for 6,350.00 if bullish, or scale out at 6,290.00 if you expect resistance to hold.
3. Technical Indicators
Candlestick Patterns: Recent green candles indicate buying pressure, but watch for reversal signals (e.g., doji or shooting star) near 6,300.00.
Volume: At 77.04K, it’s moderate. A surge on a breakout would confirm strength; a drop might signal exhaustion.
Moving Averages: The chart shows multiple MAs (e.g., 50-day, 200-day). If the price is above them, it supports the bullish case; a cross below could indicate a shift.
4. Trade Plan
Entry: Consider entering long near 6,290.00 if the price consolidates or breaks 6,300.00 with volume confirmation.
Risk-Reward Ratio: Aim for at least 1:2 (e.g., risk 20 points to gain 40 points toward 6,350.00).
Position Sizing: Calculate based on your account size and risk per trade (e.g., 1-2% of capital).
Exit Strategy: Take partial profits at 6,320.00 and let the rest ride with a trailing stop, or exit fully if resistance holds.
5. Risk Management
Volatility: The range (6,120.00-6,300.00) suggests moderate volatility. Adjust position size accordingly.
News/Event Risk: Check for upcoming economic data or earnings that could impact the instrument.
6. Scenario Analysis
Bullish Case: Break above 6,300.00 with strong volume could push to 6,350.00+. Monitor for follow-through.
Bearish Case: Rejection at 6,300.00 with a red candle might drop to 6,180.00. Prepare to cut losses quickly.
A positive close is expectedBuyers are maintaining an upward pressure in the S&P 500 daily chart. The expectation is that will continue into the close for Thursday.
DIYWallSt Trade Journal: Why Price Action Beats News **07/02/25 Trade Journal, and ES_F Stock Market analysis **
EOD accountability report: +763
Sleep: 4.5 hours
Overall health: sleep deprived
** VX Algo System Signals from (9:30am to 2pm) 4/4 success**
— 9:57 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
— 10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! :check:
— 11:10 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal :x:
**What’s are some news or takeaway from today? and What major news or event impacted the market today? **
You can't trade on news, the only thing that matters in day trading is price action.
Bad news can still make the market go up.
News
The U.S. economy lost 33,000 jobs in June, as per ADP, badly missing forecasts for a gain of 99,000.
MICROSOFT TO LAY OFF AS MANY AS 9,000 EMPLOYEES
Tesla’s NASDAQ:TSLA Q2 deliveries miss consensus expectations
**What are the critical support levels to watch?**
--> Above 6250= Bullish, Under 6240= Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.website/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
