It was fun while it lastedIf this bearish gartley plays out brace yourself for a crash of epic proportions.
BTC.D trade ideas
Beyond FOMO: Strategic Analysis of BTC.D and Market ProspectsLet's begin by examining CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D on the monthly timeframe. Here we see the old EXP model, which formed in December 2020. This model reflected the decrease in bitcoin dominance during 2020-2021. For our current analysis, we're interested in the level of the first point — 73.02%.
On the weekly timeframe, we see an AMEXP model that formed in January 2023 and effectively describes the entire current upward trend.
Note the price reaction from the model levels of 51.7% and 59.64%. Within this model, we have two more upper levels: 68.9% and 90.36%.
The dominance level of 90.36% seems unrealistic from a common sense perspective: such a scenario is only possible with a total collapse of the entire crypto market, when all assets (including bitcoin) would depreciate to the point where bitcoin's capitalization would constitute 90% of the entire market. I hope we never see these values. However, reaching the 68.9% level seems quite likely.
Most likely, the price will try to break through the 68.9% level (we may see a bounce from this level, which might be mistakenly perceived as the beginning of a new alt season). After that, the price will likely make a new maximum and rise above the 73.2% level. And only then will we finally see the formation of a downward trend in bitcoin dominance.
What might be happening in the market if our bitcoin dominance analysis proves correct?
Let's look at the #BTC chart, where the expansion model was validated on the weekly timeframe (green model):
According to the model levels, we can expect growth to at least $109,354, and at maximum — to a new all-time high (ATH) with targets of $115,116, $116,757, and even $152,723 or $174,102 (although the probability of reaching the last two targets, despite their presence in the model, is relatively low).
If we look at CRYPTO:ETHUSD , the picture looks significantly worse — the asset is in a deep bearish phase.
Against the backdrop of general positive sentiment, CRYPTO:ETHUSD may grow to $2 059 or even to $2 626, but we will consider this merely as a bounce. We can only talk about a real trend change when the price moves beyond the yellow model.
Everyone is waiting for the reversal of bitcoin dominance (we have only calculated the most probable reversal point), as its exponential growth should be replaced by the long-awaited alt season.
However, few consider a possible negative scenario: the correction of bitcoin dominance may occur against the backdrop of a general market decline, where bitcoin will fall faster than altcoins. Against the background of growing macroeconomic uncertainty (problems in the global economy have not disappeared, they continue to accumulate, and no matter how they try to "postpone" them — this will not pass without a trace), we consider the negative scenario to be the main one.
For the past year, everyone has been saying that bitcoin is a super-reliable asset, and if something goes wrong — you need to buy bitcoin. Most retail investors love bitcoin and hate altcoins — largely because they have many unprofitable altcoins in their portfolio and no bitcoin. Each time, missing the moment to buy bitcoin, they succumbed to FOMO. Now, as bitcoin moves toward a new maximum, everyone is rushing to buy it again.
At the same time, we have a market where 80-90% of participants are in large losses. For most assets to just break even (not to mention profits), they need to grow by 300-400%.
Of course, we're not saying everything will necessarily be bad, but we prefer to stick to a strategy that primarily takes into account the negative scenario. For now, we will refrain from investment positions and give preference exclusively to speculative ones.
Btcs dominance should dropBitcoins dominance has been rising and rising, and is about drop.
All seasons is here, buckle up buttercup, and enjoy the ride
Bitcoin Remains King, But Altcoins Face Potential Ruin.Although forecasts of Bitcoin reaching astronomical levels have cooled, its role as the foundation of the cryptocurrency ecosystem remains steadfast.
Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience and stability, serving as the digital gold standard in an increasingly volatile market.
However, a starkly different picture emerges for many Altcoins.
The classic "Head and Shoulders" pattern, a bearish technical indicator, is becoming increasingly prevalent, suggesting a potential decline or even extinction for a significant portion of the Altcoin market.
Investors need to proceed with caution and strategic foresight.Diversification and a focus on established projects like Bitcoin are paramount in mitigating risk. Understanding technical analysis and market trends is crucial to navigating the complex and ever-evolving crypto landscape.
Don't let the lure of quick gains blind you to the fundamental principles of sound investment. Choose stability, choose resilience.
SEYED.
Altcoin season closer than ever?It's done. BTC.D finally grabbed liquidity at 65%. Now the majority of liquidity is below.
When will altseaon start?#Altseaon2025
• BTC dominance: 64.86%, Strong Bitcoin focus.
• Altcoin market cap: $820.93B
• Altseason will start once BTC dominance clearly reverses below 60% and altcoins break out above $900B resistance.
As long as BTC dominance is above 60%, prefer investing in Bitcoin.
Bitcoin Dominance: My Global Overview Hello, Skyrexians!
Yesterday we made a local update on CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D where pointed out that waves order has been changed a little bit, today we will take a look at this chart globally. Soon we can have a great reversal but we will feel pain before it because target above 66% will happen.
This is monthly chart. The first greatest altseason looks like an impulsive wave 1. Then correction has been started. The first pullback finished inside 0.61 Fibonacci zone and it contains on 5 waves. This is the sign that it's wave A. If wave A has 5 waves it means that global wave 2 will be zigzag ABC or triangle ABCDE. We will exclude the zigzag because wave C has almost reached the wave A bottom, and it cannot be flat correction because wave A is impulsive, so we are in huge triangle. Waves A, C, E shall be impulsive.
Current wave is wave C which can reach any target next to the wave A top. Our earlier predicted 66-67% looks reasonable and we need to focus on internal counting. This chart is just to make us sure that we are next to reversal.
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
___________________________________________________________
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BTC DOMINANCEBitcoin dominance could break down at this point, potentially signaling the start of an exceptional altseason.
BTC DOMINANCEBitcoin dominance could break down at this point, potentially signaling the start of an exceptional altseason.
Crypto Phases Explained: From Bitcoin Season to Full-On FOMO !Hello Traders 🐺
I hope you're doing well. In this idea, I want to dive into the different phases of the crypto market, because I feel like many new traders — and even some semi-pros — still don’t fully grasp this fundamental concept. So make sure to read this until the end and feel free to ask your questions in the comments below!
🔹 PHASE 1 – Bitcoin Season
This is where it all begins.
You can guess from the name: BTC starts outperforming almost every altcoin, especially ETH. In this phase, Bitcoin’s price often grows rapidly while most alts lag behind. As BTC's market cap rises, Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) also increases — and this is clearly visible on the chart.
In the current market, BTC.D is rising toward a key resistance level, suggesting we are still in late Phase 1, but possibly approaching a shift.
🔹 PHASE 2 – Ethereum Season
Why ETH and not the rest of the altcoins?
Because when smart money rotates out of BTC, the first stop is usually Ethereum, the second-largest asset by market cap. ETH is also the backbone of many other projects, so it makes sense that it leads the altcoin wave.
When ETH starts to outperform BTC, that’s your sign: Phase 2 has begun.
🔹 PHASES 3 & 4 – Altcoin Season
This is the fun part. 🤑
In Phase 3, we typically see larger cap altcoins (top 100 projects) begin to surge and hit new all-time highs. Then comes Phase 4, the final leg of the bull cycle — full-on FOMO. Even low-cap coins start doing 20x or more, and yes, many small investors suddenly feel rich.
🔎 So… how do we know what phase we’re in?
Excellent question. But a tricky one.
As mentioned, BTC.D is showing signs of weakness near a long-term resistance trendline. That could mean BTC is topping short-term, and ETH might soon start to take the lead. To confirm that, just watch the ETH/BTC chart closely.
For deeper confirmation, add these charts to your watchlist:
OTHERS/BTC
TOTAL2
TOTAL3
They help you see when capital starts flowing into mid and low-cap alts — and help you track the sunrise… and the sunset. 🌅
Final Note:
If you’re still confused during market volatility, don’t worry. Trading is a long and tough journey — and patience is key. Learn from your mistakes, stay disciplined, and always remember:
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
Stay sharp,
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
BTC Dominance - AltseasonExpecting a move down to the 200MA in white or grey
This aligns with the fib circle 1.618 in blue
This will be the third strong alt season
Bearish for dominance for now
Weekly timeframe
Bad News From Bitcoin Dominance: Pain AheadHello, Skyrexians!
I got sick for these 5 days that's why has not shared updates, but market was very boring so we didn't miss any significant move. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D concerns me now because to end this trend we need to see any significant correction, but we didn't. On the 12h Awesome oscillator was not able to cross zero line and reversed to the upside, so our main change is that daily time frame measures the wave 3 inside the major impulse.
If we count waves inside this impulse price is approaching 1.61 Fibonacci level at 65.3% and trust me it's much better to see it's reaching before the drop. When this wave will be finished, wave 4 will happen. It can bounce significantly to 61%. This is strong target area and I am sure we will be there soon. Wave 5 can be extended, can be not. The max target is 71%! Sounds awful. The likely target at 66-67%, to make it more precise let's wait for wave 4 finish.
I plan to close in profit those part of trades which has been opened after Feb 3 dump on this potential bounce to have money to add on the last huge shakeout. People believe in altcoins too much, very unlikely to have altseason now. Ready for hate!
Best regards,
Ivan Skyrexio
___________________________________________________________
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Altseason Loading? BTC Dominance Hits Key Resistance!The BTC Dominance chart is testing a long-term weekly resistance zone.
Every time it hit this trendline in the past, we saw a strong reversal. If history repeats, altcoins could soon gain serious momentum.
Stay alert. A shift might be coming.
#BitcoinDominance #Altseason
Btc.d targetting lows.This is the short term target.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
* What i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
buyingThe launch of altcoins is approaching. We are still in the Bitcoin dominance zone. Many of those who rush will lose patience. A lot of patience.
Soon things will become clear.
This is not financial advice
BTC Dominance weakness of uptrend Bitcoin's dominance has failed to establish a new high, suggesting a significant weakening and a lack of upward momentum. This failure strongly indicates that Bitcoin's dominance is poised for a reversal from this point, potentially initiating a new downtrend. Furthermore, a compelling bearish divergence is forming on Bitcoin's dominance on the weekly timeframe's Relative Strength Index (RSI). This bearish divergence is a robust indicator of a potential trend reversal. Considering these factors, there is a high probability of witnessing a decline in Bitcoin's dominance in the near future.
when is ALTCOIN #bullrun??if the bitcoin dominance managed to reach
67.8_ 70.7 by the date of 9 June
I'll be expecting a top formation
so I'll be looking for bearish price action there
trade safe
and follow for more
Bitcoin Dominance: Neutral — But Bears Are LurkingBTC.D holds the 50 EMA... but barely.
Momentum flattening. Volume drying.
No breakout = Structural risk increases.
Failure here could trigger altcoin rotations.
Neutral isn't safety.
Neutral is a loaded spring.
Stay tactical.
#Crypto #BitcoinDominance #AltseasonWatch #QuantMindset
BTC Dominance: What a Rise Could Mean for the MarketTechnical view:
Rejecten from EMA 20 & 50 as support and the upward move has been confirmed by a breakout above the 63.47% level.
The next target for BTC.D is around 64.34% – 64.49%.
This scenario remains valid as long as price holds above the 63.17% level.
Understanding BTC Dominance (BTC.D) and Its Market Impact
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) measures the percentage of total crypto market cap that belongs to Bitcoin. When BTC.D goes up, it usually signals that money is flowing into Bitcoin and out of altcoins. This often happens during risk-off sentiment, uncertainty, or when BTC is making a strong move.
➡️ A rising BTC.D can mean:
Altcoins may underperform or correct
Bitcoin is leading the market trend
It's safer to focus on BTC-related trades
On the other hand, when BTC.D goes down, altcoins often shine—especially mid and low-cap ones—marking what traders call an altseason.
⚠️ So if BTC.D breaks resistance and trends upward, it might be a good idea to reduce exposure to altcoins and monitor BTC closely for momentum trades.
Crucial Level to Watch on BTC.DWe can see that CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is still in a bullish trend and is currently testing a crucial level, which will determine whether it continues to make a higher high or starts weakening towards its previous low.
The influence of CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D on the crypto market is simple: if CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D moves higher, it means more money is flowing into Bitcoin. For example, if CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is at 64%, it means 64% of the total crypto market capitalization is in Bitcoin, and the remaining 36% is spread across altcoins like CRYPTOCAP:ETH , CRYPTOCAP:SOL , CRYPTOCAP:DOGE , CRYPTOCAP:PEPE , etc.
Conversely, if CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D moves lower, it means more money is shifting into altcoins.
Strategy when CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is rising:
You can allocate more into Bitcoin rather than altcoins. Alternatively, you can find altcoins that are outperforming Bitcoin.
How to find altcoins that outperform Bitcoin?
Look for altcoin/BTC pairs, for example: BINANCE:WIFBTC , BINANCE:NEARBTC , or $BINANCE:TAOBTC.
If the price of BINANCE:WIFBTC is going up, it means SEED_WANDERIN_JIMZIP900:WIF is gaining more value compared to $BTC. If it's going down, it means Bitcoin is performing better than $WIF.
Back to CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D :
Currently, CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is testing the 64.19% – 64.10% zone.
This area will determine whether CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D continues upward or starts to weaken.
To get early confirmation, you can zoom into the 1-hour chart and look for signs of bullish divergence.
If bullish divergence appears on the 1-hour chart, it often leads to a bounce on the 4-hour chart and a potential continuation of the bullish trend, possibly breaking the previous high.
However, if there's no bullish divergence confirmation, or if there's a strong rejection at the support level, CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D is likely to weaken and move towards its previous low.
A wonderful ALTCOIN Bullrunis all set in motion.
If my chart resonates with you in any way.
The combined dominance charts of the big four.
#BTC.d
#ETH.d
#USDC.d
#USDT.d
We are on our way to my anticipated target zone.
BTC Dominance % : Key zone watch
BTC.D is still respecting its upward channel since mid-2022, currently testing the upper boundary ~64%.
🟡 Potential pullback on the table, targeting mid-range or lower channel support (~60%).
📌 This could hint at:
🔄 A short-term ALTcoin relief rally if dominance pulls back.
🛑 Or possible Bitcoin consolidation while alts catch up.
EMA 61.40% acting as dynamic mid-range support.
Stay sharp — dominance shifts often lead the broader crypto rotation.
WELCOME TO THE BEGINNING OF ALT COIN SEASON!Traders, Hodlr's and Soon to be Liquidity (late retail buyers),
This is likely the moment we have been waiting for. Last week in our weekly VIP market update we discussed just a few things that would really show us if we just saw the bottom of the alts and if it was now time to start seeing some new local HH's and then HL's showing us a shift in trend. I had posted a few trades pointing this out. We have now at this point accomplished what we were looking for to see if we would be starting Alt coins season.
We have been watching a few things. The first being Bitcoin Dominance or CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D as this is a great chart to watch and look for reversals prior to looking at the chart of the specific alt coin against BTC to see if it also is showing it could have a rally or a pullback based on your bias on this BTC.D chart. For instance if I were to want to see maybe when XRP would likely start breaking out say that this BTC.D chart is in fact correct and the triangle trend line will end up being the top for btc dominance at around 64.4% of the total market I would go to BITSTAMP:XRPBTC to give myself some insight on confluence of market movements.
Being that we are now here at the point that I believe we will start to see money flow into alts based on this chart and others such as CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 , CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3 and CRYPTOCAP:TOTALDEFI and the specific BTC pairings that I am holding by looking up the ticker of my alt coin/BTC and studying that chart I will honestly say that I am in the 90%/10% bullish on alts to bearish.
I hope this information helped you in your journey to get more information and come up with your own analysis to base your investment decisions and you become prosperous for doing soo!
Stay Profitable Folks,
Savvy!
