BTC.D trade ideas
Bitcoin Dominance is divingBitcoin Dominance has fallen off of a cliff, largely on the back of Ethereum’s pump. If this continues, we should see alt strength across the board, finally getting a hint of an “alt season.” As you know, I have my doubts that we can see an “everything pump” on altcoins again, because there’s so much supply and so many coins. That said, coins with the right narrative and positioning can still do exceptionally well.
Perhaps dominance has already brokendepending on where you draw the line, we could be open for business.
BTCDBTC Dominance has finally broken support and is heading down to the bottom of the long term channel. ALT season will explode if it breaks the red resistance and closes below the channel.
BTC Dominance is OverCome one, come all, Bitcoins Dominance begins to fall. Alt coins are at the threshold of the precipice but like machines made to climb, they will do so with grace, ruthlessness and unforgiving elegance. Bitcoin may be the first cryptocurrency but does it matter if it’s the best?
BTC Dominance (BTC.D) — Weekly Failed AuctionChart Context
• Instrument: CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
• Time-frame: 1-Week
• *Key vLevels (dashed):
• 68 % – 2021 supply pivot
• 66-68 % zone – recorded a Weekly Failed Auction (wick above, close back below)
• 62.50 % – mid-range support / prior breakout shelf
Failed Auction at the Top
Price wicked into the 66-68 % vLevel but closed lower.
On a weekly chart that pattern often marks exhaustion; bulls couldn’t maintain control.
First Support = 62.50 %
If BTC.D trades < 62.50 % and closes a weekly bar there, odds rise that capital rotates out of BTC and into alt-coins.
Historically this breakdown triggers the early stages of alt-season (see 2021 analogue).
Invalidation
Weekly close > 68 % negates the failed auction and points to renewed BTC strength (alts lag).
How I’ll trade / allocate
Spot BTC bias – overweight BTC while dominance holds > 62 %.
Alt-coin rotation – shift 20-35 % into high-conviction alts only after a confirmed weekly close < 62 % and follow-through below 60 %.
Risk checks – trim alt exposure back to cash/BTC if dominance reclaims 62 % after a breakdown (failed alt-season).
Bitcoin Dominance BTC.D analysisCurrently, the maximum of BTC.D was 65.38% and the absolute maximum is very close, and then the capital will start flowing into altcoins.
We will have to keep a close eye on where the capital will go: only to highly liquid altcoins, or to a certain industry, or to a narrative, as it was before: “defi”, “memecoin”, and so on...
Do you have any ideas where the capital can go? Write in the comments!
❗️ Also, it is worth noting that such a popular term as "alt-season" lasts less and less, and you have to wait longer and longer for it!
It seems that this time the "alt-season" has every chance to last until the end of 2025, and then... it will be seen. Perhaps the market will gain capital and new powerful players who will set a new vector and new rules by 2028....
But first... we have to live to see it!)
_____________________
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Btc Dominance Just doing retest, HOLD Everyone is selling their altcoins out of fear after minor pumps, but they don’t realize that Bitcoin dominance is only retesting its supply zone. It has already broken its structure, indicating a shift into a downtrend. This retest is not a reversal—yet people are spreading fear among each other as if something major is about to happen. Many will miss what’s coming and regret it later. Don't miss Altseason which is coming in few days not weeks.
Mind It
Bitcoin DominationHistorical cycle data on the indicator points to the possible end of bitcoin's dominance growth. This may indicate the beginning of capital reallocation in favor of altcoins. At least until May 7 we will have a short-term altcoin season, but if we are lucky, even until the end of May.
⚠️ Caution Amid Geopolitical Factors
While a temporary altcoin season may be on the horizon, it's essential to consider broader economic factors. Ongoing trade tensions, particularly involving the U.S., could introduce volatility into the markets. Such geopolitical uncertainties might render the current altcoin rally a bull trap, with potential downturns in the summer months.
This is altcoin season"The altcoin season has likely begun! We're currently witnessing Bitcoin's dominance chart breaking down at a critical juncture, and this cycle may surpass even our most optimistic expectations. The technical signals are remarkably clear and verifiable for most seasoned traders. In these market conditions, the wisest strategy is to hold strong with conviction – maintain your positions and trust in the assets you've carefully accumulated. This could very well be the start of an extended altcoin rally that rewards patience and strategic positioning. #AltSeason #CryptoMarket #BTCDominance #HODLStrategy"
$btc.dupdate from earlier chart since we have reached the 200 ema on the daily
its time for
A - full send on alts
B-retrace on alts and bitty takes over
rsi bottomed out careful on the leverage .flush is due my guess spike up soon is to sell into or hedge
let us see option c we close daily below and nuke it
Btc dominance I think btc dominance has peak , no way it keeps going up . Historically when it peaks money start to flow to ethereum first then alts . I am bullish on alts and eth I expect money to keep flowing to them gradually then fear of missing out will push up the price . I think alt season is warming up and will accelerate quickly
Will altcoins start to recover from here?BTC dominance is currently testing a key trendline resistance—mirrored by weakness in the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) index as well.
Could this signal the start of an altcoin recovery?
If Bitcoin breaks above the weekly resistance zone at $114,000–$115,000, it would likely pave the way for a full-fledged altcoin season in the months ahead
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.
Altcoin Season Has Officially Begun!We're now seeing top altcoins like ETH, BONK, and ONDO outpacing Bitcoin with impressive gains.
Ethereum (ETH) has just broken above $3,100
BONK is surging back toward its winter highs
Portfolios are growing daily — even without active trading
The momentum is building fast, and the next few weeks could be highly rewarding for altcoin holders. Buckle up — Altcoin Season is here.
BTC.D Slipping ! ALTSEASON Loading ? This is BTC.D on the daily chart.
It has shown a strong relationship with the 50MA (blue/cyan line), often using it as support. While there were a couple of daily closes below it in the past, they lasted only 1 or 2 candles.
Now we’ve seen 4 consecutive daily closes below the 50MA (including today), which increases the likelihood of a deeper move to search for support.
The next key support zone (green rectangle) is defined by the 200MA (red line) and the 62.25% level (black line) — both of which acted as support before.
If BTC.D drops into that zone, ETH and altcoins could experience a strong bounce.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
Bitcoin dominance chart ready to dump?Bitcoin dominance aka the btc.d chart has been in these 2 rising channels now for a long long tie, after ust recently being rejected down fro the top trendline of the neon yellow channel, there seems to be an opportunity here for it to potentially head down to retest the bottom trendline of that channel as well. If this occurs this could lead to an altcoin season. Price is right now combating the 50ma(in orange) and trying to maintain it as support. If this moving average flips to solidified resistance that greatly increases the chances of price going down to retest that bottom yellow trendline. Being that both of these channels are rising channels probability favors price action eventually breaking down from them instead of up so I have arbitrarily placed the measure move break down target of the yellow channel in a random spot below roughly where price could break down from the channel were it to be rejected strongly enough here by the 50ma. It’s retested this bottom trendline multiple times in the past and has always found away to avoid the breakdown thus far though so a breakdown there is definitely not guaranteed if it does retest the trendline, but even heading back down to retest the trendline in the first place may provide enough momentum for an alt season *not financial advice*
BTC.D Cycle top in?There are signs that Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) could be leaving a cyclical top, similar to what we saw in late 2020. When overlaid with the Global Liquidity Index (inverted and leading by 52 weeks), a potential correlation appears: previous peaks in liquidity were followed by turning points in BTC.D about a year later.
If this pattern repeats, a shift in market dynamics — possibly in favor of altcoins — could unfold over the coming year. However, this remains a hypothesis rather than a confirmed signal. The relationship between macro liquidity and crypto sector rotation is worth watching, but it’s not guaranteed to play out the same way again.
What’s your take: Altcoin Season loading or not yet?
Bitcoin Dominance, RSI Bearish Divergence & Decreasing VolumeThis is a classic signal and we are going to be looking at it on two different timeframes, daily and weekly.
Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) is producing a strong bearish divergence with the RSI. The weekly timeframe is very pronounced and I will show you the details below. This type of signal tends to support a change of trend. It appears before the reversal happens but sometimes it can take years before it goes into effect.
» BTC.D Weekly RSI
Here you can see the RSI peaked October 2023. Then a lower high October 2024, then again in April 2025 and finally last month.
As the RSI produces lower highs BTC.D is producing higher highs.
This signal is supported by decreasing volume. Bitcoin Dominance continues to climb higher while trading volume continues to drop. Both signal support a change of trend soon and together they become stronger.
» BTC.D Daily RSI
The daily RSI peaked June 2023 but we will focus on the short-term as we already have a strong signal coming from the weekly.
Here we have a peak in May 2025 and a strong lower high in June. Needless to say, BTC.D peaked 27-June thus the divergence but the action is clearly weak.
» Bitcoin daily
There is a long-term rising wedge on the weekly timeframe and this pattern can also support a reversal.
All these signals are bearish but not very strong, still, there is some weakness on the bearish side for this index. This means that the action can turn bearish tomorrow or it can continue rising for weeks or months before turning red.
These signals are pointing to a reversal but they do not give us a specific date. Can happen next week, next month or in seven months. If we focus on the altcoins, the way they are looking and how long will it take for them to grow, then this index can turn bearish within 2-4 weeks. Bitcoin will also grow as the altcoins market grow. Everything Crypto will grow in late 2025.
Thanks a lot for your continued support.
Namaste.
BTC Dominance & the Monthly Stoch RSI: Altseason’s Hidden TimerMost traders look at BTC dominance and try to guess when the flip to altcoins will happen.
But if you zoom out, way out to the monthly timeframe , you’ll see something far more powerful:
Altseason is not triggered by a spike in BTC dominance, but by the collapse and suppression of it.
And the key to timing that collapse?
The monthly Stochastic RSI.
📉 What the chart shows
If we study BTC.D from 2016 to today, a time-based pattern emerges :
🔻 2016–2018
• BTC.D topped around ~69%
• Stoch RSI dropped into oversold mid-2017 and stayed low for 12+ months
• Result: the 2017 altcoin supercycle
🔻 2020–2022
• BTC.D peaked again (~73%)
• Stoch RSI crashed early 2021, stayed flatlined until mid-2022
• Result: explosive altseason with massive ETH, SOL, AVAX, meme coin runs
🔻 Today, 2023–2025
• BTC.D just printed a lower high (~63.6%)
• Monthly Stoch RSI is curling down hard , signaling the start of suppression
• History suggests we’re about to enter another 12+ month phase of altcoin dominance
🔁 The Rhythm of Rotation
It’s not price. It’s not hype.
It’s time + suppressed momentum that marks altseason.
⏳ So... Wen Altseason?
Unless this time is truly different, we're stepping into the altcoin window now and it might be open well into 2026.
💬 Agree? Disagree? Let me know below.
If this helped you time the macro, drop a like & follow for more 🫡
urgent. update for bull run This chart depicts Bitcoin’s market cap dominance rising from ~50% to 66% in 2025, now at 64.6%, signaling potential downward breakout in an upward channel.
Dominance going to 61% , mini altseason soonAfter a failed trendline retest and weeks of exhausted uptrend, dominance is likely heading to 61%—a measured move down to the 0.382 fib level, right where the EMA/SMA are stacked. BTC will chill between 102–110 ( needs a lot of consolidation after 8 weeks of uptrend). Alt season is knocking—grab your bags .
BTC.D The END GAME ( like AVENGERS ! )Hello Traders 🐺
Before we begin, I’d like to name this idea "The End Game" — just like the Avengers movie! 😄
Because honestly… there’s almost no more room left for BTC Dominance (BTC.D) to go higher — and here’s why:
📉 Bearish Divergences Everywhere:
Whether you’re on the daily, weekly, or even monthly chart — bearish divergences are all over the place.
In fact, this setup reminds me of the opposite situation — when BTC.D was deeply oversold before launching into a massive rally.
But what does this mean?
🚨 Is the Bull Run Over? Or Just the Calm Before the Storm?
Let’s break it down:
As you probably know, BTC.D dropping = Altcoin Season — and in my opinion, this BTC cycle is a supercycle. That means it's extended, more powerful, and broader than usual.
So when dominance reverses, ETH and the top 100 altcoins could enter their own supercycle phase — leading to a much bigger altcoin season than the previous one.
🎯 Key Level to Watch:
BTC.D is now hovering near a critical support zone.
If this support fails, we may see a rapid drop toward the next support near the 60% level, which aligns with the lower boundary of the long-term channel.
🔥 Prepare yourselves. The end game for BTC.D could be the beginning of the real Altcoin Season.
💬 What’s your take? Are you positioning for the shift?
🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺
🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
BTC DOminanceBTC Dominance is moving in a descending wedge in my view will fall to 41-42% in next 2/3 months starting altcoins massive bullis trend then reversal
