BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin Blow-Off Top?Bitcoin’s daily chart is flashing caution after a sharp reversal candle on Monday was followed by downside continuation today. Yesterday’s session printed an unmistakably ugly candle – a long upper wick signaling rejection at the highs near $120K, with a close well off the top of the range. Crucially, that candle came on elevated volume, adding weight to the move and suggesting a possible blow-off top in the short term.
Today’s follow-through confirms that sellers are taking the reins, at least for now. Price is currently sitting around $116,800 after dropping over 2.5%, with the next major support zone near $112,000 – a level that previously capped price throughout early June before the breakout. If that fails, the 50-day MA and horizontal support around $105,800 should act as the next line of defense.
Volume has remained elevated, showing that this pullback has real participation – not just apathy or a lack of buyers. Bulls need to see price stabilize above $112K and reclaim lost ground quickly, or risk a deeper retrace after such an aggressive upside move.
For now, momentum has clearly stalled, and the risk of a more meaningful correction is on the table.
BTC/USD 21.07.25Targeting the $125,500 Resistance
Market Overview:
After a correction down to $116,850, Bitcoin held above the 144 EMA and is recovering toward the key resistance zone around $125,500. A bullish continuation pattern is forming.
Technical Signals & Formations:
— Strong support reaction from $116,850
— 144 EMA on 4H holding as dynamic support
— ABCD harmonic structure supports upside
— Break above $120,000 will confirm bullish momentum
Key Levels:
Support: $116,850, $113,700
Resistance: $123,300, $125,500–$126,000
Scenario:
Primary: continuation upward toward $125,500 with potential breakout
Alternative: minor pullback to $116,850 before next leg up
BTC CONSOLIDATESBitcoin continues to consolidate just below resistance after a strong multi-week rally, currently trading around $118,813. Last week’s candle was notably toppy, with a long wick to the upside that hinted at some exhaustion near the highs. Despite that, this week’s price action has remained relatively firm, suggesting the bulls are still in control for now. The key overhead resistance remains at $123,231 – a level that marked the recent high – and BTC has yet to close above it. Support at $112,000, previously a ceiling during the consolidation in May and June, has now flipped to critical support and must hold to maintain the bullish structure.
Volume has declined modestly since the breakout in early July, a typical sign of consolidation rather than distribution. The 50-week moving average continues to rise and now sits well below price around the $89,000 zone, confirming strong momentum. Still, traders should remain cautious here – failure to break above resistance or a close below $112,000 could lead to a deeper pullback toward the mid-$90K range. Until then, this remains a textbook consolidation just beneath resistance in a larger uptrend, with the potential for a breakout continuation if strength returns.
Bitcoin H1 | Falling toward a 61.8% Fibonacci supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 117,857.83 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 115,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 122,734.70 which is a swing-high resistance.
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Btcusd techinical analysis.This chart displays the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3-hour price action with several technical indicators and patterns annotated. Here's a breakdown of what it shows:
Key Observations:
1. Price Action:
BTC is currently priced around $116,386, showing a -2.93% drop.
A strong downtrend has formed after a significant upward move, possibly forming a bearish ABCD pattern.
2. Harmonic Pattern:
The chart appears to reflect a completed harmonic retracement, with a deep retracement (near 0.88 Fibonacci level).
This suggests a potential reversal or bounce zone.
3. Support & Resistance Zones:
Several purple horizontal boxes indicate key support and resistance zones.
The current price is approaching a major support zone near $114,000–$115,000, which has been tested previously (visible on the left side).
4. Trend Lines:
A pink downward trend line suggests ongoing bearish momentum.
Price may need to break above this line to confirm a reversal.
5. Yellow Zig-Zag Path:
Indicates a possible bullish reversal scenario, predicting a bounce off the lower support zone followed by a move upward.
6. Event Markers:
Red circular icons (with flags) near the support zone hint at upcoming fundamental news/events that may influence price action.
---
Interpretation:
Short-term bias: Bearish until strong support holds (~$114,000–$115,000).
Possible trade setup: Watch for bullish reversal signals at support (candlestick patterns, RSI divergence, etc.) before entering long.
**Risk
Bitcoin: Support at $112K Holds Key to Bullish ContinuationFenzoFx—Bitcoin is bullish, trading above $112,000.0 after forming a new all-time high at $123,231.0. The current dip may offer a strong reentry if $112,000.0 holds as support, aligning with a bullish fair value gap.
Price remains above the ascending trendline, reinforcing the bullish outlook. If momentum continues and BTC breaks past $123,231.0, the next target could be $130,000.0.
A fall below the trendline would invalidate the bullish setup.
Bitcoin H1 | Potential bounce off a pullback supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 116,469.00 which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 114,600.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 119,650.00 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Tradu (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of Tradu and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of Tradu or any form of personal or investment advice. Tradu neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is Tradu responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
Bitcoin - Power of 3 in play!The chart illustrates a classic application of the ICT concept known as the "Power of 3," a theory that outlines a common market behavior pattern consisting of three phases: consolidation, manipulation, and distribution. This model is often used by smart money traders to identify points where institutional players may be accumulating or offloading positions, typically by targeting retail liquidity.
Consolidation
In this scenario, Bitcoin has exhibited a prolonged period of consolidation, where price fluctuated within a defined range throughout most of June and into early July. This range-bound movement, highlighted in blue, represents the market gathering orders from both buyers and sellers, creating a liquidity pool on either side of the range. During this phase, market participants become uncertain about the next direction, while smart money positions itself for the next move.
Manipulation/sweeping liquidity
Recently, Bitcoin has broken out of this consolidation range in an upward move, which is now being interpreted as the manipulation phase. This move served to sweep the liquidity resting just above the established highs of the range. These highs were prime areas for stop-losses of short sellers and breakout entries of longs, making them attractive targets for institutional manipulation. The price push above this level, marked in green, appears to be a false breakout designed to trap breakout traders and trigger stops before a likely reversal.
Possible distribution phase
Following this manipulation phase, the chart suggests we are entering or have just begun the distribution phase, marked in red. Distribution in the context of the Power of 3 refers to the process where smart money offloads their positions onto unsuspecting buyers who entered during the manipulation. The anticipated outcome is a sustained move to the downside, aligning with the forecasted bearish structure shown on the right side of the chart.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the chart reflects a textbook ICT Power of 3 pattern in play on Bitcoin. After a lengthy period of sideways consolidation that built liquidity on both sides, Bitcoin executed an upward manipulation to capture liquidity above the range. Now, with the highs swept and buy-side liquidity taken, the market looks poised for distribution, signaling a probable downward move in the near term. Traders familiar with smart money concepts would view this as a high-probability reversal zone.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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What if Analysis for BitcoinNormal Cycles are dead!! According to extended measurements, elliot waves, fib retracements, trend analysis, cyclic lines and QE timeframes, we might see a different play this time, which will leave everyone sidelined i.e Max Pain. We saw for the first time a Bitcoin bull run while we are in a Quantitative Environment. This means that BTC from now on works as a risk off asset. So, imagine we have a local top on September 2025, where the normal cycle ends around 160k then a quick drop at 130k where everyone thinks the bear market is here and after that quick pump on 250k. Then 9 months bear market (usually 12 months) but now shorter cause we have an extended short term cycle for bull run and after that we hit on 2027 directly 700k USD, where we find the huge bear market which will last longer than usual leading to 100k usd on 2030. The target of 700k usd alligns perfectly with fib levels, trend resistances Larry Fink prediction of BTC going to 700k and lastly and most important due to the published data of FED of wanting to revalue gold to buy 1 million btc in the next years. If we multiply gold's price around 3400k per ounce, multiply USA gold reserves (which is in tons, so we have to convert ounces to tons) and then divide that number with 1,000,000 BTC, guess the price--> yes correctly 700k per BTC!!!!!!!!! Let's go boyz!
Bitcoin Renko Breakout Confirmation with CryptoQuant NetflowFrom late 2024 till now, Bitcoin (BTC/USD) was consolidating within a broad sideways range between well-defined support and resistance levels on the 4H Renko chart. During this time, market indecision was obvious as neither bulls nor bears could establish dominance.
Recently, BTC has decisively broken out above the major resistance zone at ~$108,000 — as seen with my custom Renko + Decision Tree + S/R Channel script ( ). This breakout above resistance technically suggests the end of range-bound price action and the potential start of a new bullish trend, especially when confirmed by on-chain data.
On-Chain Netflow Confirmation
As I originally highlighted in my CryptoQuant Netflow analysis (published under the username ‘cryptoonchain’ on CryptoQuant platform):
Total Exchange Netflow for Bitcoin has recently dropped to its lowest level since February 16, 2023 — at which point the last bullish cycle began.
Negative Netflow means more BTC is being withdrawn from exchanges than deposited, indicating reduced selling pressure and strong holder conviction.
Binance-specific Netflow also confirms massive outflows, a sign whales and large traders are accumulating and withdrawing funds from trading venues.
Historically, this combination — a technical breakout (Renko) and deep negative on-chain netflow (dataset: CryptoQuant) — has preceded major bull runs.
Summary
Based on both my Renko model and current on-chain flows:
The breakout above 108,000 resistance marks the start of a likely new uptrend for BTC (now 119,000).
On-chain data via CryptoQuant strongly supports the bullish scenario.
Invalidation
If BTC returns below $108,000 and consolidates there, this bullish outlook is invalidated and a reassessment is required.
127KMorning folks,
So, BTC shows even better performance that we thought, although it obviously something stands behind, this is not market-natural motion. Anyway, we consider 127K level as all-time nearest target that stands on monthly chart.
If any pullback starts (BTC now is at daily overbought and near Yearly Resistance Pivot), we keep an eye on 117.2K and 113.5K levels to decide on long entry
Bitcoin (BTC): Targeting $140K | Our ATH for This Bullish Cycle$120K was broken too easily, and we are now setting our new ATH to $140K, which will be our last target and local top before entering into a bearish market.
Now, as we recently had a strong break of structure that was not retested properly (meaning buyers have not secured this area), combined with the RSI being in the overbought zone, we might see some pullback happening anytime from here so keep an eye out for it.
About RSI, our yellow line is still in the neutral area, and we see the demand and buyside volume growing, so we are going to look for that line to also enter into overbought zones before looking for potential selloffs.
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