BTCUSD.P trade ideas
Bitcoin Suspended Beneath the Ichimoku Silence.⊢
⨀ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 4H) - (July 20, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $117,919.29.
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⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval - (4H):
▦ EMA9 - (Exponential Moving Average - 9 Close):
∴ Price is currently hovering just below the EMA9 at $118,035.43, showing weakening immediate momentum;
∴ EMA9 is now flat-to-downsloping, indicating short-term loss of control from intraday bulls;
∴ Recent candles have failed to reclaim closes above EMA9, reflecting micro-resistance and tactical fragility.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - EMA9 has lost command; tactical control has shifted to neutrality with bear undertones.
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▦ EMA21 - (Exponential Moving Average - 21 Close):
∴ EMA21 currently sits at $118,164.50, acting as an overhead suppressor;
∴ The gap between EMA9 and EMA21 is compressing, signaling potential for either crossover or volatility breakout;
∴ Price action is now trapped between EMA9 and EMA50, with EMA21 forming the upper barrier of a tactical box.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - EMA21 serves as containment lid; rejection here confirms tactical indecision.
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▦ EMA50 - (Exponential Moving Average - 50 Close):
∴ EMA50 rests at $117,262.74, offering foundational support within the current structure;
∴ Price has respected this level on multiple dips since mid-July, confirming its strategic function as mid-term equilibrium;
∴ The slope remains mildly upward - no sign of reversal, only compression beneath.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - EMA50 maintains its structural role as mid-range dynamic floor.
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▦ EMA200 - (Exponential Moving Average - 200 Close):
∴ EMA200 remains well below at $111,765.30, untouched since early July;
∴ Its wide distance from price confirms that the broader structure remains in bullish territory;
∴ Its trajectory continues upward, anchoring the uptrend beneath all volatility.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - EMA200 secures the long-term structure; market remains elevated far above reversal threshold.
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▦ Ichimoku Cloud - (9, 21, 50, 21):
∴ Price is currently within the Kumo (cloud) zone, defined between SSA and SSB - a region of ambiguity and compression;
∴ The Senkou Span A and Span B are nearly flat, signaling lack of directional command in the near term;
∴ Kijun and Tenkan lines are converged, offering no trend bias - equilibrium is dominating.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - Ichimoku confirms a neutralized compression state; breakout required for trend clarity.
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▦ RSI (21) + EMA9 - (Relative Strength Index with Signal Smoothing):
∴ RSI value stands at (51.48), while the EMA9-signal rests at (52.25) - confirming a soft bearish crossover;
∴ The RSI has declined from its recent peak and now oscillates around the neutral 50-line;
∴ Momentum is waning without structural damage, indicating tactical cooling.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - RSI confirms suspended momentum; structural neutrality prevails beneath fading thrust.
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▦ Stochastic RSI - (3, 3, 21, 9):
∴ Current values are: (%K = 35.33), (%D = 32.68) - with %K slightly above %D, forming a mild bullish crossover;
∴ The oscillator has just risen from oversold levels, indicating potential energy buildup;
∴ Prior cycles in this zone have produced false starts, so confirmation is essential.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - Stoch RSI hints at rebounding energy, but with fragile structure and low reliability.
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▦ MACD - (9, 21, 9 - EMA/EMA):
∴ MACD Line = (–105.52), Signal Line = (–129.07), Histogram = (+23.55) - confirming a bullish crossover;
∴ The crossover occurred below the zero line, indicating a possible reversal from weakness rather than strength;
∴ Slope of MACD is positive but modest - insufficient to declare dominant shift.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - MACD is in bullish transition mode, but still recovering from beneath structural base.
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▦ OBV + EMA9 - (On-Balance Volume with Trend Overlay):
∴ OBV currently reads (71.13M), and is slightly above its EMA9, signaling retention of volume without strength;
∴ Volume has not left the system - but neither has it surged; this is passive accumulation at best;
∴ No divergence exists for now, but lack of buildup implies neutral positioning.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - OBV is stable and neutral; no buyer escape, but no commitment surge either.
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▦ Volume + EMA21 – (Volume Profile with Trend Average):
∴ Current volume bar = (13.91), sitting below the EMA21 baseline;
∴ The volume profile across recent sessions is declining - suggesting consolidation or exhaustion;
∴ No breakout volume spike has accompanied price stabilization - trend is under silent compression.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - volume fails to validate price levels; tactical fragility remains unresolved.
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🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ The H4 structure presents a state of compression beneath a neutral cloud, suspended between tactical short-term EMA's (9, 21) and safeguarded by a rising EMA50 backbone;
∴ Momentum oscillators (RSI, Stoch RSI, MACD) converge toward reactivation, yet none have broken decisively above neutral thresholds - reflecting potential, not power;
∴ Volume participation is inconsistent and fading, offering no confirmation for breakout - the market is in silent observation mode, not assertion;
∴ Ichimoku confirms indecision: price floats within Kumo, without command or breakout - equilibrium reigns;
∴ Price positioning remains elevated above the deeper structure (EMA200), but its current zone between EMA9 and EMA50 represents a coil of indecision;
∴ The overall condition is not bearish - but it is tactically suspended, lacking conviction, awaiting external ignition.
✴️ Conclusion: The Oracle confirms - the structure is intact, but tactical initiative is lost; the field is poised, not marching.
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∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Short-Term Holder (SOPR):
∴ SOPR currently reads (1.001), meaning short-term holders are spending coins with no significant profit or loss - a signal of economic neutrality;
∴ The chart displays persistent lateral volatility around the (1.0) threshold since early July - no emotional dominance in market behavior;
∴ This pattern historically coincides with pre-expansion compression phases, rather than breakdown events.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - SOPR confirms behavioral neutrality among short-term holders; the market remains in a state of expectation, not realization.
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▦ STH-MVRV - (Short-Term Holder Market Value to Realized Value):
∴ The metric is currently oscillating around (1.30), well above the danger zone at (1.0), but far below the euphoria threshold at (1.8);
∴ The structure reflects multiple euphoria rejections, followed by a return to balance - a classic cooling-off pattern without structural failure;
∴ Convergence between market price, realized value, and short-term cost basis indicates the market is retesting foundation zones.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - STH-MVRV confirms post-euphoric cooling with structural support intact; no active trend, no breakdown.
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▦ Exchange Inflow Spent Output Age Bands - (All Exchanges):
∴ Inflows to exchanges have been consistently low in recent weeks, particularly among young coins (0d–1d, 1d–1w) - showing no urgency to sell;
∴ Aged outputs (>6m) remain dormant - long-term holders are not mobilizing;
∴ The absence of inflow pressure signals no macro panic or exit event, reinforcing the diagnosis of tactical compression.
✴️ Conclusion: Logic sealed - muted inflows confirm a lack of distribution catalysts; stable structure sustains the technical silence on the 4H chart.
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🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle:
∴ All three on-chain metrics converge into a clear state of tactical equilibrium - not bearish, not euphoric, but suspended between action and observation;
∴ Short-Term Holder SOPR stabilizes at (1.001), marking a precise psychological stasis - profit-taking and panic-selling are both absent;
∴ STH-MVRV confirms a post-euphoria cooldown with structural preservation, implying that short-term holders have recalibrated expectations without abandoning their positions;
∴ Exchange inflows remain historically depressed, with no aged coins activating - a hallmark of silent markets preparing for resolution;
∴ The chain speaks softly: no exit, no aggression, no irrationality - only latency, and the potential energy of stillness.
✴️ Conclusion: The Oracle confirms - the on-chain architecture reflects suspended initiative; nothing is broken, nothing is charged - only paused.
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𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
▦ Structurally: Bullish;
∴ Price remains well above the EMA200 and EMA50, with no breach of long-term support;
∴ All EMA's (9, 21, 50) are compressing, but retain upward trajectory - confirming structural integrity;
∴ Ichimoku Kumo holds price within a neutral band, but does not reflect a breakdown.
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▦ Momentum-wise: Suspended Compression.
∴ MACD shows bullish crossover from beneath, but lacks amplitude to confirm trend reversal;
∴ RSI is parked around 50 with a bearish signal crossover - signaling stagnation, not strength;
∴ Stochastic RSI is climbing out of oversold, but with no impulsive follow-through.
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✴️ Final Codex Interpretation:
∴ The H4 structure is consolidating beneath short-term resistance and within equilibrium clouds;
∴ Momentum is rebuilding, but flow remains stagnant;
∴ Buyers have not exited, but neither have they re-initiated force;
∴ The chart breathes - but does not speak.
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⧉
· Cryptorvm Dominvs · MAGISTER ARCANVM · Vox Primordialis ·
⚜️ ⌬ - Silence precedes the next force. Structure is sacred - ⌬ ⚜️
⧉
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Bitcoin Forecast 🔁 I use a unique time-based cycle method built around the universal law of 3-6-9:
3 = Impulse wave
6 = Correction
9 = Cycle end
we are at the higher time frame cycle 9
each cycle of the 3, 6 ,9
contain a smaller one 3 ,6 , 9
This isn’t just about charts — the number 9 governs all natural cycles:
Pregnancy, learning, lunar cycles, economic growth, etc.
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🗓️ These are the key monthly turning points I track every year:
> Jan 8 – Feb 7 – Mar 6 – Apr 5 – May 5 – Jun 4 – Jul 2 – Aug 1 – Aug 31 – Oct 30 – Nov 29 – Dec 6
📍 This month, July 2nd was a critical time pivot. From there, Bitcoin entered a new time cycle.
📌 Time Is More Powerful Than Price
Most traders focus on price action, waves, or indicators…
But the reality? Time is the real market driver.
⏳ Entry signals based on time outperform those based on price.
Why? Because price is a reaction — time is the cause.
BTCUSDA Mini buy for btcusd targeting a R:R OF 1:2, although the overall trend is a sideways market favoring the downside over the upside. this buy opportunity is worth taking based on shift in market structure and we have a double bottom and order block retest. we will need a major retracement before we have our continuation sell.
"Bitcoin Bearish Setup: Breakdown Targeting 117,509"This Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 45-minute chart shows a bearish setup with key levels marked. After a breakdown from the support area, price is expected to drop. The suggested short entry is just below 119,639, with a stop loss at 120,984 and a target at 117,509. The chart highlights an order block, support area, and projected downward move.
BTC intra?
Hi
Do you know?
www.investopedia.com
If your initial plan is BUY.. whatever reasons: Fundamental/ outlook buy
We'll take this trade; reason
Two Yeses : Outlook BUY Pattern BUY
How will it react?
Answer: I don't know
High probability : Yes
Where do you enter? Your preference
wait retrace or now... just
If you wait.. might not get the ticket
If calculate between entry and stop loss: pips
And divide by what you re risking in $ to pips
All the best
Btcusd breaking above cup and handle necklineIf it confirms the bullish breakout the target is 150k. Also by breaking above 116k and solidifying that level as strong support, we will trigger an even bigger inverse head and shoulders pattern (not shown here) with a breakout target around 208k! I will provide a link below to the chart I posted of that pattern. Thanks for reading, liking, and following. *not financial advice*
BTC Nearing Completion of Wave 3 – Correction Ahead?Bitcoin is approaching the end of its Wave 3 movement, which suggests a possible correction phase in the near future.
However, this is likely just a temporary pause before the next bullish wave continues the uptrend.
Stay patient and watch for key support levels to prepare for the next buying opportunity.
Bitcoin Blow-Off Top?Bitcoin’s daily chart is flashing caution after a sharp reversal candle on Monday was followed by downside continuation today. Yesterday’s session printed an unmistakably ugly candle – a long upper wick signaling rejection at the highs near $120K, with a close well off the top of the range. Crucially, that candle came on elevated volume, adding weight to the move and suggesting a possible blow-off top in the short term.
Today’s follow-through confirms that sellers are taking the reins, at least for now. Price is currently sitting around $116,800 after dropping over 2.5%, with the next major support zone near $112,000 – a level that previously capped price throughout early June before the breakout. If that fails, the 50-day MA and horizontal support around $105,800 should act as the next line of defense.
Volume has remained elevated, showing that this pullback has real participation – not just apathy or a lack of buyers. Bulls need to see price stabilize above $112K and reclaim lost ground quickly, or risk a deeper retrace after such an aggressive upside move.
For now, momentum has clearly stalled, and the risk of a more meaningful correction is on the table.
BTC Bulls Defend Key Zone Eyes on $123K Breakout ExtensionBitcoin has successfully completed a breakout above the prior weekly high structure, followed by a healthy pullback which is currently unfolding into a bullish pennant formation. The key highlight is how price is retesting the neckline zone with precision, which now doubles as a strong immediate buyback zone.
The reaction from this level is already showing strong bullish momentum, with price gearing up to challenge the previous ATH. A breakout above that resistance should unlock the path toward the projected $116.5k and $123.4k targets as shown on the chart. Failure to hold the Immediate Buyback Zone opens the door toward the Strong Demand Zone, which remains a valid re-accumulation point within this bullish cycle.
Stay sharp. The structure remains intact unless the neckline fails decisively.
Bitcoin’s Crossroads: Shooting Star Pressure vs. Bullish Pennantwe examine a classic battle of signals: the daily chart reveals a dominant shooting star candle—hinting at overhead resistance and possible downside risk—while the 4-hour setup unfolds a bullish pennant triangle, often a prelude to continuation moves. This presentation balances caution with opportunity, highlighting key breakout zones, invalidation points, and what traders should watch next. As Bitcoin hovers at this technical tension point, will bulls find the strength to punch through? Unfortunately bulls have been faked out and we currently have a confirmed candle open and close below the 50EMA on 4H. This confirms a strong pullback initiated by the shooting star on the daily chart to a potential target of $114k.
BTC/USD 21.07.25Targeting the $125,500 Resistance
Market Overview:
After a correction down to $116,850, Bitcoin held above the 144 EMA and is recovering toward the key resistance zone around $125,500. A bullish continuation pattern is forming.
Technical Signals & Formations:
— Strong support reaction from $116,850
— 144 EMA on 4H holding as dynamic support
— ABCD harmonic structure supports upside
— Break above $120,000 will confirm bullish momentum
Key Levels:
Support: $116,850, $113,700
Resistance: $123,300, $125,500–$126,000
Scenario:
Primary: continuation upward toward $125,500 with potential breakout
Alternative: minor pullback to $116,850 before next leg up
BTC CONSOLIDATESBitcoin continues to consolidate just below resistance after a strong multi-week rally, currently trading around $118,813. Last week’s candle was notably toppy, with a long wick to the upside that hinted at some exhaustion near the highs. Despite that, this week’s price action has remained relatively firm, suggesting the bulls are still in control for now. The key overhead resistance remains at $123,231 – a level that marked the recent high – and BTC has yet to close above it. Support at $112,000, previously a ceiling during the consolidation in May and June, has now flipped to critical support and must hold to maintain the bullish structure.
Volume has declined modestly since the breakout in early July, a typical sign of consolidation rather than distribution. The 50-week moving average continues to rise and now sits well below price around the $89,000 zone, confirming strong momentum. Still, traders should remain cautious here – failure to break above resistance or a close below $112,000 could lead to a deeper pullback toward the mid-$90K range. Until then, this remains a textbook consolidation just beneath resistance in a larger uptrend, with the potential for a breakout continuation if strength returns.
Bitcoin H1 | Falling toward a 61.8% Fibonacci supportBitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards a swing-low support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 117,857.83 which is a swing-low support that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 115,500.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 122,734.70 which is a swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
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Btcusd techinical analysis.This chart displays the Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 3-hour price action with several technical indicators and patterns annotated. Here's a breakdown of what it shows:
Key Observations:
1. Price Action:
BTC is currently priced around $116,386, showing a -2.93% drop.
A strong downtrend has formed after a significant upward move, possibly forming a bearish ABCD pattern.
2. Harmonic Pattern:
The chart appears to reflect a completed harmonic retracement, with a deep retracement (near 0.88 Fibonacci level).
This suggests a potential reversal or bounce zone.
3. Support & Resistance Zones:
Several purple horizontal boxes indicate key support and resistance zones.
The current price is approaching a major support zone near $114,000–$115,000, which has been tested previously (visible on the left side).
4. Trend Lines:
A pink downward trend line suggests ongoing bearish momentum.
Price may need to break above this line to confirm a reversal.
5. Yellow Zig-Zag Path:
Indicates a possible bullish reversal scenario, predicting a bounce off the lower support zone followed by a move upward.
6. Event Markers:
Red circular icons (with flags) near the support zone hint at upcoming fundamental news/events that may influence price action.
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Interpretation:
Short-term bias: Bearish until strong support holds (~$114,000–$115,000).
Possible trade setup: Watch for bullish reversal signals at support (candlestick patterns, RSI divergence, etc.) before entering long.
**Risk