Btcusd techinical analysis.The chart shows a BTC/USD (Bitcoin vs. US Dollar) technical analysis on the 1-hour timeframe. Here's a detailed breakdown:
---
🔍 Chart Elements & Interpretation:
1. Trend Lines:
Upper Pink Trend Line: Acts as a resistance from a previous high.
Lower Pink Trend Line: Represents a support line from the recent upward trend.
Blue Channel: Shows a rising wedge or ascending channel (often a bearish reversal pattern).
2. O.B (Order Blocks):
Upper O.B Zone (~120,000–121,000): Potential supply zone or area of resistance.
Lower O.B Zone (~117,500–118,500): Possible demand zone or support.
3. Price Projection:
A measured move of 2,585.6 points (2.18%) is marked upward from the current breakout attempt.
4. Current Price:
BTC is trading at $119,771.8, with a +0.90% increase at the time of this chart.
---
🧠 Technical Outlook:
Bullish Case:
Breakout above the upper trend line and clearing the upper O.B could lead to a continuation toward 122,000+.
If BTC respects the demand zone and bounces, the uptrend may resume.
Bearish Case:
Failure to break above resistance or rejection at
BTCUSD.PI trade ideas
ROS #Repeat of structureROS #Repeat of structure
The chart you've provided is a 15-minute candlestick chart of **Bitcoin (BTC) / USD**, showing a recent price action pattern followed by a significant drop. Here are the **key points** identified on the chart:
**Key Support Zone**
* Highlighted in **light gray** at the bottom.
* Range: **\~116,800 to \~117,500 USD**
* This zone has acted as **support multiple times** (seen around July 11–12 and now again on July 15).
* Price **bounced** off this area during the most recent dip, but the current candle is testing it again.
---
**Chart Pattern: Bearish Triangle (ABCD Structure)**
Marked by the labels **A, B, C, D**, forming a **descending triangle**, typically a **bearish continuation pattern**:
* **A to B:** Sharp drop (initial leg down).
* **B to C:** Rebound, but fails to reclaim highs.
* **C to D:** Tightening price action inside the triangle.
* After **D**, there’s a **breakdown**, leading to heavy selling.
---
**Breakdown and Sharp Decline**
* Price **breaks below the triangle support** with a long red candle.
* Massive sell-off continues, pushing BTC below **\$118,000**.
* The current price is around **\$117,481**, hovering near the key support zone.
---
**Trend Observation**
* Before the triangle, there was a **strong uptrend** leading up to \~\$123,000.
* The triangle acted as a **distribution zone** before the **reversal** began.
* The trend has shifted from **bullish** to **bearish** post-pattern.
---
🔍 Summary of Key Levels:
| Level Type | Price Range |
| ---------------- | ------------------- |
| Resistance (Top) | \~\$123,000 |
| Breakdown Point | \~\$120,400 |
| Support Zone | \~\$116,800–117,500 |
thanking u
BTC Next Move within 11-15 DaysBTC will hit $62,528.74 Within 11-15 Days
The historical trend suggests that once Bitcoin (BTC) surpasses the $50,000 threshold, it typically enters a bullish phase, experiencing significant gains. This observation is based on past market behavior, where crossing this key price point has often led to increased investor confidence and subsequent price surges.
BTCUSD - Exhausted? Second time rejected, now down.BTCUSD got rejected at the Centerline the second time. This is super bearish. If it's closing below yesterdays low, that's a clear short signal to me.
Taking 50% gains off the table is never bad. Because then you still have 50% if it's going up further. Otherwise, you got 50% booked.
Don't let gree eat your brain §8-)
Understanding Elliott Wave Theory with BTC/USDIntroduction to Elliott Wave Theory:
Elliott Wave Theory is a popular method of technical analysis that seeks to predict the future price movement of financial markets. Developed by Ralph Nelson Elliott in the 1930s, the theory is based on the idea that market movements follow a repetitive pattern, driven by investor psychology.
At the core of Elliott’s theory is the idea that markets move in a 5-wave pattern in the direction of the trend, followed by a 3-wave corrective pattern. These waves can be seen on all timeframes and help traders identify potential entry and exit points in the market.
Key Concepts of Elliott Wave Theory:
1. Impulse Waves (The Trend)
2. These are the waves that move in the direction of the overall trend. They are labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and represent the price movement in the main direction of the market.
* Wave 1: The initial move up (or down in a bearish market). I like to mark up the first wave how I do my Fibs, from the point where price showed a major impulse.
* Wave 2: A correction of Wave 1 (it doesn’t go lower than the starting point of Wave 1).
* Wave 3: The longest and most powerful wave in the trend.
* Wave 4: A smaller correction in the direction of the trend.
* Wave 5: The final push in the direction of the trend, which can be shorter and weaker than Wave 3.
3. Corrective Waves (The Pullbacks)
4. After the five-wave impulse, the market enters a corrective phase, moving against the trend. This corrective phase is generally a 3-wave pattern, labeled A, B, C:
* Wave A: The initial correction, typically smaller than Wave 3.
* Wave B: A temporary move against the correction (it often confuses traders who think the trend has resumed).
* Wave C: The final move against the trend, usually the strongest and most aggressive.
How to Implement Elliott Wave on BTC/USD:
Let’s break down how you can apply the Elliott Wave Theory to BTC/USD using a simple example.
1. Identify the Trend
2. Start by identifying the current market trend for BTC/USD. Are we in an uptrend or downtrend? This will determine whether you’re looking for a 5-wave impulse up (bullish) or down (bearish).
3. Locate the Waves
4. Look for the five-wave structure in the trend direction. Once you identify a potential impulse move, label the waves accordingly:
* Wave 1: A new uptrend starts.
* Wave 2: A small pullback (usually less than the size of Wave 1).
* Wave 3: A significant surge in price, often the most volatile.
* Wave 4: A smaller pullback or consolidation.
* Wave 5: The final push higher, which might show signs of exhaustion.
5. Corrective Phase
6. After completing the 5-wave impulse, expect a corrective 3-wave pattern (A, B, C). These corrections typically last longer than expected and can often confuse traders.
* Wave A: Price starts to reverse.
* Wave B: A retracement that may confuse traders into thinking the trend is resuming.
* Wave C: A strong pullback that brings the price even lower.
7. Use Fibonacci Levels as confluence
8. One of the most powerful tools in Elliott Wave analysis is Fibonacci retracement levels. You can use these to predict potential levels where Wave 2 and Wave 4 could end, or where Wave C might complete the correction. Common retracement levels are 38.2%-50% for Wave 4, and 50-61.8% For Waves 2 and B but keep in mind, these wave can retrace up to 100% before the wave analysis becomes invalid. But ideally these points are where you look to make an entry.
Wave 2 Example:
This one hit the golden spot (0.5-0.618) perfectly and continued to push upward.
Wave B and C Example:
This example hit closer to the 0.786 level which is also a key level for retracement.
Wave 4 Example:
This one hit the golden spot (0.382-0.5) for Wave 4 perfectly before continue the bullish momentum.
I try to use the RED levels below (1.1 and 1.2) as my invalidation (Stop Loss) levels and the GREEN levels (-0.27 and -0.618) as my Take Profit levels. Depending on your goals you can also use Fib Levels 0.236 and 0 as partial Take Profit levels.
9. Confirm with Indicators
10. To validate your Elliott Wave counts, use other indicators like the RSI (Relative Strength Index), MACD, or Moving Averages. For example, a Wave 3 might occur when the RSI is above 50, indicating strength in the trend.
In this example you can see the RSI cross the 50 threshold and the 3rd Wave form.
Continuation after the Wave is complete:
Tips for Trading with Elliott Wave Theory:
* Stay Flexible: Elliott Wave Theory is not set in stone. If the market doesn’t follow the expected pattern, adjust your wave counts accordingly.
* Don’t Rely on One Timeframe: A 5-wave structure on one timeframe may be part of a larger wave pattern on a higher timeframe. Always analyze multiple timeframes.
* Wave Personality: Waves don’t always look the same as stated earlier. Wave 2 can retrace up to 100% of Wave 1 and Wave 4 should generally not overlap Wave 1 or this may invalidate the Wave structure.
* Risk Management: Always use proper risk management techniques. No theory is perfect, so make sure you have a stop-loss in place to manage your risk.
Conclusion: Using Elliott Wave Theory on BTC/USD:
The Elliott Wave Theory can be a powerful tool for analyzing and forecasting price movements. By identifying the 5-wave impulse and 3-wave corrective patterns, you can gain insights into potential market direction. Just remember to use it alongside other tools and indicators for confirmation, and don’t forget to manage your risk.
As you apply it to BTC/USD or any other asset, remember that the market doesn’t always follow the "ideal" patterns, and flexibility is key. Practice on different timeframes, refine your skills, and use the theory as a part of your overall trading strategy.
Final Thoughts:
If you're just starting, don't get discouraged if you miss a wave or two. Trading is a journey, and with patience and practice, you'll begin to spot these patterns more naturally. Whether you’re analyzing Bitcoin's price action or any other asset, Elliott Wave Theory can give you a deeper understanding of market psychology.
Good Luck and Happy Trading!
BTC eyes on $117,868: SemiMajor Genesis fib to Orbit a few times\Shown here is a single fib series in three different time-frames.
The "Genesis Sequence" has called all major turns since 2015.
This are "High Gravity" Fibs try to capture price into Orbit.
$ 117,668.00 (Coinbase) is the exact level of interest.
$ 111,661.25 is the first support below, a minor ratio.
$ 105,451.85 is semi-major and MUST hold fib below.
$ 125,550.41 is the next target above, a minor ratio.
See "Related Publications" for many PRECISE and TIMELY charts -------->>>>>>>
.
120K is the Key.Morning folks,
Our last plan worked perfect - market re-tested 117K support and jumped out. If you have longs - you could keep it.
We consider now two alternative scenarios, although we think that this one with triangle is more probable, we do not exclude the H&S shape on 1H chart that could lead BTC down to 112-113K support area.
So, if you do not know how to deal with this - keep an eye on the 120K area and top of the right arm. Upside breakout will confirm H&S failure and triangle scenario. Otherwise, until market stands under 120K - consider H&S as a basic scenario, just for safety.
Take care, S.
Will this be the first proper alt szn since 2020?Altcoins are waking up. While Bitcoin has surged over 600% since 2022, Ethereum and smaller coins have lagged behind. But that might be changing. With ETHBTC breaking its downtrend, BTC dominance dropping, and political momentum building around crypto regulation, the stage could be set for a true altcoin season. In this video, we break down the charts, the trends, and what could come next. Is this the real deal or just another fakeout? Let me know what you think.
Breaking below the psychological 115,000 level could trigger furMomentum indicators such as RSI and MACD likely show bearish divergence or downward momentum, supporting the short thesis.
The recommended stop-loss for this setup is at 119,000, which is just above recent resistance and protects against false breakouts.
This SL level offers a good risk-reward ratio, with approximately 2:1 or better depending on entry precision.
If price fails to reclaim 119,000 or form higher highs, the bearish momentum is expected to persist.
Price rejection candles or bearish engulfing patterns near 117,500 further validate short entries.
Breaking below the psychological 115,000 level could trigger further downside acceleration.
This setup is ideal for short-term swing traders or day traders looking to capitalize on intraday volatility.
Overall, the structure favors sellers as long as BTCUSD remains below the 119,000 resistance.
BTC - LTF Retracement TargetsPlease refer to our previous post:
After identifying our first target right around $120.4k we are seeing the first signs of a cooloff. Until we get a daily candle close above this level price is likely to flush some leverage. The main move to $140k area is still likely to happen, but if we see a retracement in the short term here are the LTF levels to watch.
Support level #1 has been established with most of the candle bodies around $116.8k. If we lose that level then price is likely to test our previous ATH.
Support level #2 would be a test of our previous ATH around $112k or our teal trendline that connects the wick tops.
The final support level would be our macro old ATH right around $108-$110k. There is also a trendline there (which depending on what time it could be tested) would also be right in line with those price targets.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 1H Technical Analysis – Breakout in ProgressBitcoin is showing bullish intent after breaking above a descending trendline resistance on the 1-hour chart. The breakout occurred with decent bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are regaining control in the short term.
📈 Chart Observations:
Descending Trendline Broken: Price has successfully broken above a well-respected descending trendline, which acted as resistance over the past few sessions. This breakout may signal a shift in short-term market structure.
Support Zone: The marked support zone around $115,000 continues to act as a critical demand area. Price has rebounded multiple times from this zone, reinforcing its significance.
Current Price Action: BTC is currently trading near $119,800, just under the round-level resistance of $120,000. A clean hourly close above this level could open room for further bullish continuation.
📊 Key Levels:
Resistance: $120,000 (Psychological level)
Immediate Support: $118,000
Major Support Zone: $115,000–$114,000
📉 Bearish Scenario:
If BTC fails to hold above the broken trendline and slips back below $118,000, a revisit of the support zone near $115,000 becomes likely. Bears may step in again if the price fails to sustain higher highs.
✅ Conclusion:
BTC is showing potential for a short-term bullish reversal after breaking out of its descending pattern. Traders should monitor for confirmation through price continuation above $120,000. However, a cautious approach is advised near resistance levels, and invalidation below $118,000 could favor sellers once again.
BTCUSD MMC Analysis - Breakout Confirmation + Reversal + TargetWelcome back to another deep-dive analysis powered by MMC (Mirror Market Concepts), where precision meets market psychology. In today’s BTCUSD setup, we’re observing a textbook confluence of structural breakouts, demand rejections, and liquidity zone engagements. Let’s break it down step by step.
📊 1. Market Context & Background
The market recently showed a prolonged bearish trendline structure, with lower highs compressing price into a wedge. The prior days have been consolidative, hinting at an accumulation phase. This forms the foundation for reversal setups we often identify in MMC-style analysis — where liquidity, not just structure, determines the next move.
🔍 2. Demand Zone Dominance – 2x Tap Confirmation
At the bottom of the chart, BTC created a strong 2x Demand Zone (117,250–118,000 area), a region where buyers aggressively stepped in. This zone had already been tested once, and the second tap confirmed demand strength — a key MMC signal.
This dual-tap created a spring effect, launching price upward and rejecting all downside liquidity grabs. It also showed clear absorption of sell-side volume.
📈 3. QFL Behavior + Break of Structure
We see a QFL (Quick Flip Liquidity) reaction just after price bounced from demand — this is a behavior unique to MMC models. Here, price flipped structure rapidly after breaking a local high near 118,500, suggesting aggressive buyer entry.
This QFL event served as the first warning for a major trend shift.
Right after that, we got a major BOS (Break of Structure) above 119,250, further confirming the bullish transition.
🪜 4. Trendline Breakout – Second Confirmation
The descending trendline — connecting several swing highs — was breached with strong bullish momentum. Importantly, this was the second confirmation breakout, not just a fakeout spike.
The breakout candle closed strongly above the trendline and above the SR channel zone (gray area), confirming trend reversal intent.
This aligns with MMC's multi-stage breakout logic, where price gives one trap, pulls back, and then breaks cleanly with intent.
🛡 5. Channel SR Interchange Zone (Support-Resistance Flip)
The gray horizontal SR Channel played a crucial role. Initially acting as resistance, it became support once the breakout was confirmed.
This interchange behavior — a principle where support turns into resistance or vice versa — is critical in MMC. Price flipping this zone and holding above is a strong continuation signal.
🧠 6. Targeting & Forward Outlook
Price is now approaching the Mini Reversal Zone (119,750–120,250). This is a low-timeframe liquidity zone where short-term traders may take profits or where institutional orders may reverse temporarily.
Here are two potential scenarios:
Bullish Continuation: If price pulls back slightly and holds the channel SR as support, we may see a continued leg upward, breaking above 120,250.
Temporary Rejection: A sharp reaction from the Mini Reversal Zone could lead to a retracement into the Central Zone (~118,800), where buyers might reload.
📌 Key MMC Takeaways:
✅ 2x Demand Zone reaction confirmed bullish interest.
✅ QFL + BOS + Trendline Break = High-conviction reversal signal.
✅ SR Flip adds MMC-style structural layering.
✅ Price is now navigating final supply zones before expansion.
👑 Join the Candle King Community
If you find value in these advanced MMC analyses, join the Candle King server — a professional community focused on refining trading journeys through advanced market theory like Mirror Market Concepts, QFL, and real-time price logic.
📢 We don’t just trade levels — we trade behavior.
BTC - Capitulation. Now Time For A Bounce?Whenever there is a big impulsive rally, dumb money will come rushing in to buy.
And thus we can somewhat expect the market maker to print a shakeout for them to exit at best price and dumb money to carry the bags at worst price.
...
In this area we have multiple charts providing the liquidity zones for the shakeouts:
The upside shakeout (long wick) printed on TOTAL through ATH:
...
Before I make the next point, lets see the design of the chart bots 10 years ago in 2015.
Notice that the high and low of the trading range is set by the impulsive high then initial slump:
That sets the trading range.
Once set; the chart bots then print a liquidity sweeping slightly higher high...
Which slumps back to liquidity sweep the lows of the trading range.
From there the next wave up begins.
...
Now notice in these charts from the last 2 days, that the trading range was similar to that of 2015.
But once the range was set; rather than printing a simple slightly higher high, the more evolved chart bots printed a wild impulsive move up to draw in buyers.
This then became a very impulsive smackdown.
...
Although going on a wild journey, the price is effectively similar to the pattern of 2015; liquidity sweep at the highs and now it is below the low.
Notice on these 2 charts from the last two days that the support that Bitcoin has hit today was the obvious trading range low - similar to 2015.
And so the question is now; whether it will also be a liquidity sweep at the lows and a bounce will follow?
Notice on the chart, there was a big smackdown and then we have had another fast smackdown (arrow) to take price beneath the lows.
This looks very much like a fear test - where the chart bots try to sell you another immediate capitulation, but yet the price holds in the zone of higher liquidity below support.
Wyckoff would call these 2 lows SC Selling CLimax and ST Secondary Test.
The selling climax completes the real bearish wave down.
Secondary Test is the probe into higher liquidity which is a fear test to scare longs away.
...
So if we consider that history may not repeat, but it does rhyme then there will likely be a bounce in this area - as the market maker gets best price for their short positions while dumb money panic sell their long positions at a loss.
Not advice
Mastering the Bollinger Bands- How to use it in trading?What is the Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands is a popular technical analysis tool developed by John Bollinger in the 1980s. It is designed to measure market volatility and provide signals for potential price reversals or trend continuations. The Bollinger Bands consist of three lines: a simple moving average in the middle, usually calculated over 20 periods, and two outer bands that are placed a set number of standard deviations above and below the moving average. These outer bands automatically adjust to market conditions, expanding and contracting based on price volatility. The indicator is widely used by traders to understand the relative highs and lows of a financial instrument in relation to recent price action.
What will be discussed?
- How does it work with the lower band and upper band?
- What does the narrowing mean?
- What does the widening mean?
- How to trade with the Bollingers Bands?
-------------------------
How does it work with the lower band and upper band?
The upper band and the lower band serve as dynamic levels of resistance and support. When the price of an asset touches or exceeds the upper band, it may be considered overbought, suggesting that a reversal or pullback could be near. Conversely, when the price approaches or breaks below the lower band, the asset may be viewed as oversold, indicating a potential rebound. These bands do not generate definitive buy or sell signals on their own but instead help traders assess market conditions. The interaction of price with the upper and lower bands often provides visual cues about the momentum and direction of the market, allowing for more informed decision-making.
-------------------------
What does the narrowing mean?
The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands occurs when the price becomes less volatile over time. This contraction indicates a period of consolidation or low market activity, where the price is trading in a tighter range. Narrowing bands are often interpreted as a signal that a significant price movement may be coming soon, as low volatility tends to precede high volatility. This phase is sometimes referred to as the "squeeze," and traders closely monitor it to anticipate breakout opportunities. The direction of the breakout, whether upward or downward, is not predicted by the narrowing itself but usually follows shortly after the bands have contracted.
-------------------------
What does the widening mean?
The widening of the Bollinger Bands reflects increasing market volatility. When the price starts to move rapidly either up or down, the bands spread further apart to accommodate this movement. This expansion typically confirms that a new trend is underway or that a breakout has occurred. The wider the bands become, the greater the degree of price fluctuation. During these times, traders may observe stronger momentum in the market, and the continuation of the move may be supported by the growing distance between the bands. However, extremely wide bands may also suggest that a reversal could be nearing, as the market can become overstretched in either direction.
-------------------------
How to trade with the Bollinger Bands?
Trading with Bollinger Bands involves using the bands to identify entry and exit points based on the behavior of price in relation to the upper and lower bands. One common approach is to buy when the price touches or breaks below the lower band and shows signs of bouncing back, and to sell when the price reaches or moves above the upper band and begins to retreat. Another strategy involves waiting for the bands to narrow significantly and then entering a trade in the direction of the breakout that follows. Traders often use Bollinger Bands in combination with other indicators such as RSI, MACD, or volume to confirm signals and reduce the risk of false breakouts. It is important to remember that Bollinger Bands are not predictive on their own but are most effective when used as part of a broader technical analysis framework.
-------------------------
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Thanks for your support.
- Make sure to follow me so you don't miss out on the next analysis!
- Drop a like and leave a comment!
[BITCOIN] - Where is Potential TOP (ATH) of the Bull Cycle?Many people wondering where is the potential TOP of the current Bitcoin Bull Run? Besides setting a Fibo Retracement, we can take a look at the past. The current situation on CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart reminds me of what we've seen in the end of 2024, here is why:
Big ascending channel, price perfectly moves inside without breaking borders
Descending consolidation inside the bull flag
Strong breakout and pump towards the resistance of the channel
👉 According to this pattern, the target for the current Bitcoin upward move should be located in the $140,000 zone. Keep this in mind when planning your trades.
Quantum Computing - Why BTC isn't the biggest worryYou’ve probably heard that quantum computing could break Bitcoin’s encryption—and that’s true. But here’s the thing: Bitcoin might not even be the biggest target.
The real risks? Financial systems, national security, healthcare, and even the internet itself. These areas rely on the same encryption methods that quantum computers could crack, and the fallout could be far worse than a Bitcoin hack.
Let’s break it down.
1️⃣ Financial Systems: A Global Crisis Waiting to Happen
Imagine if hackers could:
Drain bank accounts at will.
Manipulate stock markets.
Fake trillion-dollar transactions.
This isn’t just about stolen crypto—it’s about economic chaos. Banks, stock exchanges, and payment systems all depend on encryption. If quantum computers break it, we’re looking at a meltdown way bigger than Bitcoin’s $3 trillion market.
2️⃣ National Security & Internet Privacy: A Hacker’s Dream
Governments and militaries use encryption to:
Protect classified intelligence.
Secure communications between leaders.
Guard critical infrastructure (power grids, water supplies).
If quantum computers crack these codes, entire nations could be exposed to cyberwarfare. Your private data? At risk too—email, messaging, even your online banking could be decrypted years later.
3️⃣ Healthcare, Supply Chains & IoT: The Hidden Vulnerabilities
Medical records could be leaked, exposing sensitive health data.
Smart devices (like home security systems) could be hacked.
Supply chains might collapse if logistics networks are breached.
These systems weren’t built with quantum threats in mind—and upgrading them won’t be easy.
🔴 The Bigger Picture: A "Civilizational Upgrade"
Switching to quantum-resistant encryption is like rebuilding the internet’s foundation. It’s necessary, but messy. Some experts compare it to the Y2K bug—but way harder.
🔷 So, Is Bitcoin Safe?
Not entirely—about 25% of all Bitcoin could be stolen if quantum computers advance fast enough. But compared to the risks facing banks, governments, and hospitals? Bitcoin might be the least of our worries.
🔷 What’s Next?
Governments & companies are already working on fixes (like NIST’s post-quantum cryptography standards).
The transition will take years—and hackers might exploit weak spots along the way.
Staying informed is key. If you’re in tech, finance, or security, this affects you.
ℹ️ Want to Dive Deeper?
Deloitte’s take on quantum computing & Bitcoin
Forbes on quantum risks beyond crypto
🤷♂️ Bottom line?
Quantum computing is coming—and while Bitcoin has risks, the real danger lies in the systems we all depend on every day.
❔What do you think? Will we be ready in time? Let me know in the comments! 🚀