Bitcoin pushes higher, but its not the only game in townBitcoin is up around 26% this year. A strong gain. But it’s not alone. The higher Bitcoin rises, the less the gains become in percentage terms. It's now in a different league, so a $1,000 or $10,000 move its necessarily what it used to be.
Meanwhile, Gold, silver and copper have also pushed higher in 2025. The Nasdaq 100 is up too. All signs point to a weakening US dollar.
When risk assets and commodities rally together, it's a signal. Investors are shifting. Not out of fear, but to diversify away from the dollar. This is a theme that’s building strength.
Gold is up nearly over 25% YTD. Silver even more. Copper, the industrial bellwether, has joined the rally. These aren’t just trades. They’re strategic moves. A hedge against dollar debasement, inflation, and long-term fiscal risks in the US.
The Nasdaq’s rise tells a similar story. Tech stocks benefit when yields fall and the dollar softens. Big tech also has global revenue exposure. A weaker dollar inflates their earnings in foreign currencies.
What ties all this together? Loss of confidence in the dollar as the sole reserve hedge. Too much debt, too much printing. Central banks know it. They’ve been buying gold for years. Now, retail and institutional investors are catching on.
Bitcoin, the digital alternative to gold, gets the headlines. But it’s part of a broader move. The USD remains the world’s most important currency. That’s not changing tomorrow. But its dominance is being questioned in ways we haven’t seen in decades.
This isn’t just a crypto rally. It’s a dollar diversification play. And it’s gaining momentum.
The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
BTCUSD trade ideas
BITCOIN turning the Bull Flag into Support??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading sideways, almost flat, since the July 03 High, supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Perhaps the strongest development of the week though is the fact that this consolidation has been taking place at the top (Lower Highs) of what we previously identified as a Bull Flag pattern.
Together with the 1D MA50, this Lower Highs trend-line forms a formidable Support, which as long as it holds, can technically fulfil the technical expectations out of this pattern and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $168500.
Is this one step closer to our 'fair valued' $150k Target for this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Long: Expects New High; Target 124,632Over in this video, I update on the Elliott Wave counts for Bitcoin and explain why I think that Bitcoin is going higher for a wave 5 of 3 of 5.
The stop loss will be below the wave 4 and given some leeway, will be around 115,900. There are 2 Take profit targets:
1. 119,251, and
2. 124,632
I made it known that my personal preference is $124,632 but note that once a new high is made, this wave counts will already be validated even if it then drops to our stop.
I talk about the possibility of trailing the stop once a new high is reached but commented that every trader must trade based on their own style and risk preference.
Finally, Good luck in your trading!
Bitcoin on the Brink: Short-Term Surge Toward $116K Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at approximately $96,390, approaching the $116,000 mark. Here's a short-term analysis using Cycle Analysis, Elliott Wave Theory, and Gann Analysis to inform potential trading strategies.
________________________________________
📈 Cycle Analysis: Mid-2025 Surge
Historical patterns suggest that Bitcoin tends to reach its peak between 518 and 546 days after a halving event. Given the most recent halving in April 2024, analysts anticipate a potential price peak around mid-2025, approximately 1.5 years post-halving. Notably, Bitcoin is currently about 35 days ahead of its typical cycle, indicating a possible acceleration in price growth.
________________________________________
📊 Elliott Wave Analysis: Wave 3 in Progress
Elliott Wave Theory suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the third wave of its bullish cycle, which is typically the most powerful and extended wave. Recent analyses indicate that the third wave is unfolding, with potential targets ranging from $114,500 to $120,500. A conservative estimate places the peak of this wave between $127,000 and $150,000
________________________________________
📐 Gann Analysis: Price-Time Equilibrium
Gann Analysis utilizes geometric angles to predict price movements. The "2×1 Fan" line, representing a 45-degree angle, is considered a fair value line. Historically, Bitcoin's price has peaked near this line during parabolic run-ups. Currently, Bitcoin's price is approaching this level, suggesting a potential peak.
________________________________________
🧭 Short-Term Trade Setup
✅ Entry Points:
• Accumulation Zone: $85,000 to $90,000
• Current Price: $96,390
🎯 Target Levels:
• Short-Term Peak: $116,000 to $135,000
• Medium-Term Peak: $150,000
⚠️ Risk Management:
• Potential Correction: After reaching the peak, anticipate a significant pullback, possibly 30–50%.
• Exit Strategy: Consider taking profits as Bitcoin approaches upper resistance zones.
________________________________________
🧾 Conclusion
Bitcoin is in the final stages of its current bullish cycle, with projections indicating a potential peak between $150,000 and $278,000. However, caution is warranted as market corrections are typical following such surges. Investors should consider taking profits as Bitcoin approaches upper resistance levels and prepare for potential pullbacks.
BTC - Next ATH Upside Price Targets After outlining the last low for BTC (which can be found here):
Now BTC is skyrocketing to new all time highs. Based on predictive Fibonacci modeling and also our price target of our macro megaphone pattern we can estimate where BTC's next top might be.
Our first target is just slightly above $120k. This would be our extension target of our most recent LFT trend.
If we take a look back at our last mid-macro trend it would give us an extension target slightly below $130k.
Our final target would be $135-136k which would be from our last high to our last low of our mid-macro trend. This is also in alignment with the full measured move of our megaphone pattern.
As more candle structure form around these levels we will update this prediction with even more precise targets. Happy All Time High everyone!
BITCOIN - Price can go into correction after reaching new ATHHi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Bitcoin spent weeks confined to a tight falling channel, carving out a series of lower highs and lower lows as sellers maintained full control of the market.
The breakout above $110300 ignited a powerful rally, propelling BTC into an ascending wedge formation and driving price sharply higher toward a fresh all-time high at $118800.
Once the ATH was reached, selling pressure reasserted itself, halting further upside and triggering a loss of bullish momentum.
This lightning-fast climb to $118800 appears to have drained buyer enthusiasm.
Key support now resides around $110300 - $111700, backed by the wedge base.
Given the exhaustion of buyers and the clear wedge resistance, I anticipate BTC to retrace toward the $112000 area following its recent surge.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
Bitcoin in dangerzoneAgainst all influencers online let me warn you that the current Bitcoin position is one to be very aware of. We re sitting above a multi year long strong trendline, the volume is low to moderate so no blow off top coming. DO NOT BUY or chase here, you can lose it all.
My next targets are below 90k. XRP 1.5usd still valid.
Wyckoff Structure Targets 92K–94K Retest Before Continuation!A rare and highly instructive market structure is currently unfolding, presenting a textbook case of Wyckoff pattern integration across multiple timeframes.
Over the past weeks, I’ve been tracking a series of smaller Wyckoff accumulation and distribution patterns nested within a larger overarching Wyckoff structure. Each of these smaller formations has now successfully completed its expected move — validating the precision of supply/demand mechanics and the theory’s predictive strength.
With these mini-cycles resolved, the spotlight now shifts to the final, dominant Wyckoff structure — a larger accumulation phase that encompasses the full breadth of recent market activity. According to the logic of Phase C transitioning into Phase D, price appears poised to revisit the key retest zone between 92,000 and 94,000, a critical area of prior resistance turned demand.
📉 Current Market Behavior:
📐 Multiple minor Wyckoff patterns (accumulations/distributions) have played out as expected, both upward and downward — lending high credibility to the current macro setup.
🧩 All formations are nested within a major accumulation structure, now in the final phase of testing support.
🔁 The expected move is a pullback toward the 92K–94K zone, before the markup phase resumes with higher conviction.
📊 Wyckoff Confidence Factors:
✅ All Phase C spring and upthrust actions respected
✅ Volume behavior aligns with Wyckoff principles (climactic action → absorption → trend continuation)
✅ Clean reaccumulation signs within current structure
✅ Institutional footprint visible through shakeouts and well-defined support/resistance rotations
💬 Observation / Call to Action:
This setup is a rare opportunity to witness multi-layered Wyckoff theory in motion, offering not only a high-probability trading setup but also an educational blueprint. I invite fellow traders and Wyckoff analysts to share their interpretations or challenge the current thesis.
➡️ Do you see the same structural roadmap?
Let’s discuss in the comments.
Educational: how to spot bitcoin tops before they happenBitcoin is rising, but how far can it go? In this video, I walk through key tools to spot local tops, including funding rates, Twitter sentiment, and pattern targets. We also discuss setups in XRP and Solana, and what to watch ahead of the US crypto regulation update on July 22.
Price action is the vehicle—but these charts show the road aheadIn the world of trading, technical analysis often gets the spotlight—candlesticks, moving averages, and indicators. But beneath every price movement lies a deeper current: macroeconomic forces. These forces shape the environment in which all trades happen.
Great traders don’t just react to price—they understand the context behind it. That context is found in macro charts: the financial “weather maps” of markets. These charts reveal whether capital is flowing toward risk or safety, whether inflation is heating up or cooling down, and whether liquidity is expanding or shrinking.
In this post, we’ll explore 10 macro charts that can elevate your edge, backed by proven examples of how they’ve helped traders stay on the right side of the market. These aren't just charts—they’re market truths in visual form.
1️⃣ DXY – U.S. Dollar Index
Why it matters:
The U.S. dollar affects everything: commodities, stocks, global trade, and especially forex. The DXY measures its strength against major currencies.
📉 Chart Reference:
In 2022, DXY surged past 110 due to aggressive Fed rate hikes. This crushed EURUSD, pressured gold, and triggered a global risk-off move. Traders who tracked DXY rode USD strength across the board.
💡 Use it to: Confirm trends in FX and commodities. Strong DXY = bearish pressure on gold and risk assets.
2️⃣ US10Y – 10-Year Treasury Yield
Why it matters:
This is the benchmark for interest rates and inflation expectations. It guides borrowing costs, equity valuations, and safe-haven flows.
📉 Chart Reference:
In 2023, the 10Y spiked from 3.5% to nearly 5%, leading to weakness in growth stocks and boosting USD/JPY. Bond traders saw it first—equities followed.
💡 Use it to: Anticipate moves in growth vs. value stocks, and confirm macro themes like inflation or deflation.
3️⃣ Fed Dot Plot
Why it matters:
This is the Fed’s forward guidance in visual form. Each dot shows where a policymaker expects interest rates to be in the future.
📉 Chart Reference:
In Dec 2021, the dot plot signaled a faster pace of hikes than the market expected. Those who caught the shift front-ran the USD rally and equity correction in early 2022.
💡 Use it to: Predict future rate policy and align your macro bias with the Fed's path.
4️⃣ M2 Money Supply (US)
Why it matters:
This chart tracks the amount of money in the system. More liquidity = fuel for risk. Less = tightening conditions.
📉 Chart Reference:
After COVID hit, M2 exploded, leading to a major bull run in stocks and crypto. When M2 began contracting in 2022, asset prices peaked and reversed.
💡 Use it to: Gauge macro liquidity conditions. Expansion is bullish; contraction is dangerous.
5️⃣ Copper/Gold Ratio
Why it matters:
Copper is a growth metal; gold is a fear hedge. Their ratio acts as a risk-on/risk-off indicator.
📉 Chart Reference:
In 2021, the copper/gold ratio surged—signaling growth and optimism. This preceded strong gains in cyclical equities and commodity currencies like AUD and CAD.
💡 Use it to: Confirm risk sentiment and lead equity or FX trends.
6️⃣ VIX – Volatility Index
Why it matters:
VIX tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500. It's often called the "fear index."
📉Chart Reference :
In March 2020, VIX spiked to nearly 90 as COVID panic set in. This extreme fear was followed by one of the greatest buying opportunities of the decade.
💡 Use it to: Time entries and exits. High VIX = fear = possible reversal. Low VIX = complacency = caution.
7️⃣ Real Yields (10Y TIPS - CPI)
Why it matters:
Shows the inflation-adjusted return on bonds. Real yields affect gold, tech, and risk appetite.
📉Chart Reference :
In 2022, real yields went from deeply negative to positive—crushing gold and high-growth stocks.
💡 Use it to: Confirm direction in gold, NASDAQ, and broad macro trends.
8️⃣ Oil Prices (WTI or Brent)
Why it matters:
Oil is both a growth and inflation input. Rising prices mean higher costs and often precede policy tightening.
📉Chart Reference :
Oil’s rally in early 2022 foreshadowed CPI spikes and led central banks to turn hawkish. Traders who tracked it saw inflation risks building early.
💡 Use it to: Forecast inflation, assess energy-related equities, and understand global demand.
9️⃣ Global PMIs (Purchasing Managers’ Indexes)
Why it matters:
Leading indicator of economic health. PMIs above 50 = expansion. Below 50 = contraction.
📉 Chart Reference:
In 2023, China’s PMI consistently printed below 50—signaling manufacturing weakness and global demand concerns. This helped traders avoid overexposure to emerging markets.
💡 Use it to: Gauge growth momentum globally and regionally.
🔟 SPX vs. Equal-Weighted SPX (Breadth Divergence)
Why it matters:
Shows whether the S&P 500 rally is broad-based or just driven by a few megacaps.
📉Chart Reference :
In early 2024, the index made new highs—but the equal-weighted version lagged badly. That divergence warned traders of a fragile rally.
💡 Use it to: Detect weakness beneath the surface and avoid false confidence in rallies.
🧠 Nerdy Tip: Macro Is the Invisible Hand
These charts don’t give you trade entries—but they give you conviction, timing, and perspective.
When you combine macro context with technical setups, you trade in sync with the market’s deeper rhythm.
So before you place your next trade, ask yourself:
What are yields doing?
Is liquidity expanding or drying up?
Is risk appetite rising or falling?
put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
July 10 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
It's a Bitcoin Guide.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
Here is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
There will be a Nasdaq indicator announcement at 9:30 in a little while.
There is a high possibility that Nasdaq will shake up and down significantly,
but Bitcoin still looks safe in terms of signal and pattern.
In the analysis article on July 7,
I connected the strategy as it was at the last long position entry point of 107,484 dollars.
*When the red finger moves,
it is a one-way long position strategy.
1. 110,707.4 dollars long position entry point / stop loss price when the sky blue support line breaks
2. 111,783.3 dollars long position 1st target -> Top 2nd -> Good 3rd target price
The 1st section at the top is today's best short position entry point,
and the 2nd section at the bottom is a sideways market.
In the middle, with a pink finger,
I left a re-entry position after liquidating a long position, so
I think it would be good to use it.
From the breakout of the sky blue support line, it can be pushed to Bottom -> 109,116 dollars.
The report is not yet renewed,
but from now on, it will be very important, right?
This week, it seems like it will continue to shake up and down,
so I hope you operate safely with principle trading and stop loss prices.
Thank you.
BTC: Macro Structure [Weekly Timeframe]Sharing my current view on the macro price structure of Bitcoin, outlining both main and alternative scenarios based on trend wave analysis.
Macro Trend Overview and Main scenario
The uptrend from the Nov ’22 bottom shows a classic 5-wave impulsive structure, closely aligning with ideal Fibonacci proportions:
Wave 3 peaked within the 1.382–1.618% zone
Wave 4 found support in the 1.236–1.000% area
Wave 5 topped near the 2.000% / 0.618% projection (measured from the Nov’18 bottom to Nov’21 top, projected from the Nov’22 low)
Wave (2) was relatively short in time and depth, but technically acceptable as complete. Given the broader technical structure, macro fundamentals, policy tailwinds, and social sentiment - I consider wave (2) to be finished.
The rally from April’25 low to May’25 high looks impulsive, followed by a clean three-wave pullback into the June’25 low - a structure consistent with the start of a new uptrend, within a larger degree wave (3).
If this is the case, given the fractal nature of the markets, price should Fibonacci proportions similar to the Nov’22 - Mar’24 cycle.
For this bullish count to remain valid, BTC must break and hold above the 126–134K resistance zone. This would open the door to next resistance zone be tested nex: 170–190K and 200–220/250K, where I’d expect a major top to begin forming, possibly, the start of a multi-year higher low formation.
Alternative Scenario
If price fails to break above 126–134K and starts showing reversal patterns, then the yellow count remains valid suggesting the entire trend from Nov’22 has peaked, and BTC could be entering a deep, prolonged correction (as per the yellow count).
In Summary
As long as weekly closes stay above 111.9K, my base case favors continued upside into 125–135K, where the next major decision zone lies:
• Either a short consolidation before breakout
• Or formation of a macro top
For more detailed levels and daily trend structure (including ETH, SOL, XRP, and HYPE), check out my recent video idea and Minds post.
Thank you for your attention and I wish you successful trading decisions!
If you found this idea helpful, I’d really appreciate a boost — and would be glad to have you as a subscriber!
Thank you for your attention and I wish you successful trading decisions!
* I'm keeping the same structure read from my public Mar'24 analysis:
BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Let your winners run🧠 Fear | Hope | Growth – When Trading Meets Emotion
The message on the chart isn't just poetic — it's real psychology.
🔹 Fear wants to cut your winners short.
It sneaks in after a small move in your favor.
"What if it reverses? I better lock this in."
And just like that, a great trade turns into a missed opportunity.
🔹 Hope drags you into holding too long.
It dreams: "Maybe it doubles... maybe this time it'll be massive."
But it's not guided by data — it's driven by fantasy.
🔹 Discipline is what sits in the middle.
Quiet. Neutral.
It doesn’t scream or seduce — it just follows the plan.
And that’s where Growth lives — not just on the PnL, but in your psychology.
When Bitcoin pushes toward new ATHs, these emotions get amplified.
The real question becomes: Can you manage yourself, not just your trade?
📌 A Real Example from My Desk
In my earlier BTCUSD idea — “Another Edge – Decision Time” (shared above) —
I sent that setup to one of my managed clients.
He entered long exactly at the edge of the channel — a clean, strategic buy.
Price moved beautifully in our favor…
But he manually closed the trade at 106,600 — long before the move matured.
Why?
Because fear of giving back profit overwhelmed the original plan.
The chart was right. The timing was right.
But the exit was emotional, not tactical.
✅ The trade made money.
❌ But the lesson is clear: a profitable trade doesn’t always mean a disciplined one.
🎯 Final Takeaway:
“Fear kills your winners. Hope kills your timing. Discipline grows your equity and your character.”
🗣 What would you have done in that position?
Held longer? Closed at resistance? Let it run toward ATH?
Let’s talk psychology — drop your thoughts 👇
#MJTrading
#TradingPsychology #BTCUSD #FearHopeDiscipline #LetYourWinnersRun #PriceAction #BTCATH #ForexMindset #CryptoStrategy
BTCUSD Analysis – Riding the Mind Curve & Bullish Setup Target🔎 Technical Narrative & Market Structure Analysis
Bitcoin is currently respecting a textbook parabolic support structure represented by the Black Mind Curve—a dynamic visual model reflecting the psychology of crowd behavior transitioning from uncertainty to confidence. This curved structure often precedes strong bullish continuation patterns, especially when paired with evidence of smart money involvement.
The current price action shows sequential higher lows, each of which is supported directly by the Mind Curve. These bounces confirm demand stepping in consistently at higher levels, a strong sign of controlled accumulation and momentum building.
🧠 Key Chart Components Explained
✅ 1. Mind Curve (Dynamic Support)
A custom-drawn parabolic curve reflects the ongoing upward force from buyers.
Bitcoin has tested and bounced from this curve multiple times, showing it is respected by market participants.
As price hugs the curve more tightly, the compression could lead to a volatility breakout.
✅ 2. Major BOS (Break of Structure)
A significant market structure break occurred as price took out a previous swing high.
This BOS confirms a shift in market sentiment from ranging/sideways to uptrend formation.
The BOS now acts as a reference point for bullish momentum and could serve as support on a potential retest.
✅ 3. QFL Zone (Quantity following line )
Located just below the BOS, this zone marks the last area where aggressive buyers stepped in before the breakout.
These levels are often defended on a retest and are used by institutional traders to re-enter positions.
✅ 4. Evidence Candle
This sharp bullish impulse candle is what we call an "evidence candle"—it pierces minor resistances with strength and volume.
It represents institutional-level interest and confirms smart money accumulation.
Such candles typically precede either continuation or minor pullback for re-accumulation.
✅ 5. Reversal Zone (Target Zone)
This zone lies ahead at approximately 112,500 to 113,000, a confluence of previous supply, key psychological level, and potential liquidity pool.
It's the next logical area where price may pause, react, or break through if momentum sustains.
⚔️ Scenarios to Watch
🟩 Bullish Scenario:
Price continues riding the curve support upward.
Breaks and closes above the Reversal Zone, ideally with volume and continuation candle.
Potential upside extension toward 114,000–115,000.
🟨 Neutral/Consolidation Scenario:
Price consolidates just below the Reversal Zone.
May form a flag/pennant or triangle structure.
Bullish continuation likely if the curve holds beneath.
🟥 Bearish/Invalidation Scenario:
Price breaks below the Mind Curve and BOS, closing below with momentum.
This would signal a potential breakdown of the bullish structure.
Invalidation zone likely sits below 110,000, and a breakdown could open room to revisit the 108,500–109,000 area.
📌 Confluence Factors Supporting the Bullish Bias:
Respect of Mind Curve over time = hidden institutional support
Presence of BOS and QFL = structure and order block confluence
Evidence candle = high-volume trigger point
Reversal Zone = logical magnet for price, supported by liquidity and previous reactions
📈 Summary & Trading Thesis
Bitcoin is currently in a bullish microstructure within a larger range. The parabola-style Mind Curve suggests that this structure is maturing toward an inflection point. The break above BOS, evidence of strength, and alignment with demand zones all support a move toward the 112,500–113,000 Reversal Zone. If momentum sustains, this could become the start of a broader bullish leg.
📢 Final Thought:
While the setup is bullish, discipline and patience are key. Watching how price behaves around the Reversal Zone will be critical. A clean breakout or solid rejection will provide the next high-probability signal.
BTCUSD📈 Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Market Update
Current Price: $105,000.00
Outlook: Strongly Bullish
Bitcoin is currently trading at $105,000 and showing continued bullish momentum. Price action indicates strong demand at current levels, with technical structure suggesting potential for an explosive move upward.
Key Insight:
Buy pressure remains dominant, with no immediate signs of reversal. BTC is holding above key support zones and appears poised for a continuation rally.
📊 Trade Idea:
Bias: Long (Buy)
Entry Zone: Market Price (~$105,000)
Short-Term Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $110,000
🎯 Target 2: $120,000
🎯 Target 3: $130,000
Note: Monitor for consolidation above $105,000 as a base for further upside. Risk management remains essential—adjust stop-loss levels as per your strategy.
BTCUSD: Bearish Continuation
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the BTCUSD pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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Bitcoin - Liquidity grab at $111.000?This 4-hour BTCUSD chart illustrates a potential short-term bullish continuation scenario followed by a deeper retracement, highlighting key liquidity levels and an important Fair Value Gap (FVG) support zone.
Liquidity sweep
At the top of the current price action, just above the $110,612.16 level, there is a clear area of resting liquidity. This zone has likely accumulated a significant number of stop-loss orders from traders who are shorting the market or who went long earlier and are protecting profits below previous highs. The market tends to seek liquidity to fill institutional orders, making this zone a high-probability target for a sweep. As a result, price is likely to take out these resting stop orders in a quick upward move, often referred to as a "liquidity grab" or "stop hunt", before potentially reversing or consolidating.
Bullish 4H FVG
Following this liquidity sweep, the chart suggests a retracement into a bullish 4-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) located around the $106,600 to $107,400 region. This imbalance zone was formed during an impulsive move up, leaving behind a gap between the wicks of consecutive candles. Such gaps represent areas where demand previously overwhelmed supply, and they often act as strong support on a retest. If price revisits this zone, it is expected to offer support and could serve as a base for another upward push, assuming bullish momentum remains intact.
Downside risk
However, if the bullish FVG fails to hold as support and price breaks down through this imbalance zone, it would signal a weakening of bullish structure. In that case, the breakdown would likely lead to a deeper correction or even a trend reversal, with price seeking lower levels of support further down the chart. This would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario and suggest that sellers are gaining control, possibly triggering further liquidations and more aggressive selling pressure.
Conclusion
Overall, the chart is currently leaning bullish, anticipating a liquidity sweep to the upside followed by a potential pullback into the FVG. The reaction at the FVG will be critical in determining whether the market can continue higher or if it shifts into a deeper bearish correction.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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BTCUSD h4 down surelybtcusd down idia Resistance Zone: Around 110,000–111,000
Price Action Expectation:
→ Short-term push to 110,629
→ Then rejection toward 105,000, and potentially all the way down to 96,794 or even 94,091
Bearish bias after resistance is hit
⚡ Disruption Analysis (Contrarian View)
✅ 1. Resistance Flip Possibility
What if the 110,000 resistance breaks cleanly with strong volume?
Invalidates the bearish rejection arrow
Could trigger FOMO buying → Acceleration toward 112,500+
Bullish scenario: formation of a bull flag above resistance = continuation setup
✅ 2. Bear Trap Theory at 105,000 Zone
That “target” zone near 105k could be a fake breakdown zone
Market might dip there briefly, lure shorts, then reverse violently
This creates liquidity for a rapid long squeeze breakout
✅ 3. Market Structure Still Bullish on HTF
Higher lows from June 24 to July 6
Clean breakout at 105,152
Still respecting ascending structure — which is not bearish yet
🚨 Disruption Summary Chart Moves
🔼 Alternate Path 1 (Bullish Disruption):
Price consolidates under resistance → breaks above 110,629 → targets 112,500–115,000
🔄 Alternate Path 2 (Fake Breakdown Disruption):
Drops to 105,000, triggers sell-off → sharp reversal → back above 108,637
🔽 Original Path (Rejection-Based Bearish):
Still possible — but not the only high-probability path anymore
#Bitcoin - Pivot is $102915 | Target $125385 or $80445 ?Date: 24-06-2025
#Bitcoin
Current Price: 105375
Pivot Point: 102915.00 Support: 99206.48 Resistance: 106655.63
#Bitcoin Upside Targets:
Target 1: 111205.31
Target 2: 115755.00
Target 3: 120570.00
Target 4: 125385.00
#Bitcoin Downside Targets:
Target 1: 94640.74
Target 2: 90075
Target 3: 85260
Target 4: 80445.00
Is Bitcoin Working Out a New Leg Up? Onchain Data Says It May BeDiamond hands are waving goodbye and institutions are loading up — it’s why Bitcoin may be struggling to break out of its current consolidation range. How long can this accumulation phase continue?
And yes — we look at the trades of the decade — two transactions where each one moved a cool billie from a $7.8K investment in 2011.
Some people cling to their Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD stash like it’s their last protein bar before a marathon. Others, apparently, wake up one day and decide to dump their coins and browse the market for islands.
Welcome to the silent shift that’s redefining the big players in the Bitcoin market, worth about $2.2 trillion as per data from our Crypto Coins Heatmap .
Old-school whales — the very early adopters and miners holding the OG wallets — are quietly selling, while institutional heavyweights sweep in to buy every dip (part of the reason why lately every breakout never breaks out).
Over the past year, these OG whales have shed about half a million Bitcoin — worth north of $50 billion — according to data from 10x Research. And guess who’s gobbling it all up? ETFs, corporate treasuries, and family offices that didn’t want anything to do with crypto five years ago.
Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Is it just Bitcoin being Bitcoin? Let’s pull up the charts, squint at the data, and see what the world’s most famous digital coin might be plotting next.
📈 A Record High — And Now What?
So here’s the setup. Bitcoin has been strutting under its record high of $111,000 for months now. You’d think the hype machine — from Trump’s pro-crypto administration, to corporate balance sheets going full Michael Saylor (looking at you, GameStop NYSE:GME ) — would send BTC blasting past the Moon and landing on Mars.
Instead? It’s just... chilling. Volatility’s drying up like the last drop of liquidity in a summer Friday session. And the reason is surprisingly simple: the massive handover happening between big, anonymous early adopters and the suit-and-tie institutional crowd.
😌 From Wild Ride to Easy Cruising?
You could argue this is exactly what Bitcoin needs: maturity, respectability, less drama. But don’t tell that to the day traders who want 20% swings before breakfast. As these whales get out and institutions get in, analysts say the upside could be capped at a chill 10% to 20% a year.
Good news for your retirement portfolio, maybe not so great for that “Lambo by Labor Day” dream.
Institutions now hold about 25% of all Bitcoin in circulation — and once these get in, they tend to sit tight for years.
🚀 The $1.1 Billion Time Capsule
Speaking of whales: ever wonder what happens when a Bitcoin wallet goes dark for 14 years? It pops back online to make your mind melt.
On April 3, 2011, a wallet labeled “1HqXB...gDwcK” moved 23,377 BTC to three addresses. At the time, Bitcoin was worth a mere 78 cents. Fast forward: two of those receiving wallets, each with 10,000 BTC, sat dormant for over a decade.
This month, both wallets moved their treasure troves — worth over $1.1 billion each — within 30 minutes of each other. Talk about a coordinated exit. What’s behind the move? Tax planning? A lost key finally found?
A savvy crypto thief who figured how to crack the earliest key generation method? We may never know. Also, OG guy, if you’re reading this — props for the all-at-once move without even a test transaction.
⛓️ What Onchain Data Says
Onchain data is like reading tea leaves for nerds with Bloomberg terminals. It says the supply is tightening — not because there’s less Bitcoin, but because fewer coins are actually available to trade.
When long-term holders move coins, that typically signals big-picture changes. Here’s the twist: the net effect has been… stability. Institutional demand, like Bitcoin exchange-traded funds , soaks up supply just as fast as whales drip it back in.
That’s why Bitcoin’s been stuck in this $100K–$110K limbo, ping-ponging while the accumulation phase is still going strong.
👀 So, Is a New Leg Up Coming?
This is where the optimists and realists start to bicker over the charts. On the one hand, the structural handover to institutions makes Bitcoin more credible, more regulated, and more boring.
But less volatility can mean steadier gains — especially if you believe that the world will always want an inflation hedge that no central bank can print into oblivion.
On the other hand, a sideways market can test your patience more than a typical drawdown. Some of the whales are gone, the suits have arrived, and the easy moonshots might not be so easy anymore.
🌱 The Trade-Offs of Growing Up
Bitcoin was born in the wild west of finance — an anonymous, volatile, meme-fueled phenomenon. Now, it’s drifting deep into the mainstream. That might limit the fireworks, but it also locks in its place as an asset class that’s not going away.
🌊 Closing Thoughts: The Next Billion-Dollar Move
Will we see another $7,800 investment turn into a cool $1 billion? Maybe not exactly like that. But the game isn’t over — it’s just evolving.
Keep your eyes on the whales, the ETFs, the Fed’s next move , and those onchain breadcrumbs.
Over to you , chart-watchers: does this calm consolidation make you bullish, bearish, or just plain bored? Share your thoughts in the comments!