BTCUSD trade ideas
SHORT BTC, with tight STOP!With how volatile BTC has been, this trade pretty much speaks for itself. Shorting with tight stop.
106 Retest?Could very well be possible that we see BTC revisit 106 for a final retest to solidify it as a firm base of support before truly attacking 109-110. BUT, once 109-110 has been broken through it will likely be retested to create another layer of support before seeking new ATHs and price discovery. I am also still of the belief that we will see BTC.D start to really crap the bed in the coming weeks with euphoria finally arriving in middle August according to BTC.D's key support levels.
Stand fast. Keep faith. Remain vigilant.
Bitcoin Mid Term Game Plan - BTC PLANBitcoin just broke a key resistance level with strength.
I expect a new all-time high soon, likely the summer top.
Summer markets are usually weak for risk assets and strong for gold. Seasonality matters, keep that in mind.
I expect risk markets to sell off until mid-July to early August. I’ll start buying once we break structure again.
The plan:
Wait for BTC to hit $110K
Look for a reversal from that level
Start aggressively shorting alts, beginning with ETH and memecoins
Hold shorts until late July / early August
Close positions and shift back to buying
Bitcoin H1 Reversal – Codex Arcanvm + Tactical Breakdown.⊢
⟁ BTC/USD – BINANCE – (CHART: 1H) – (Date: Jun 30, 2025).
◇ Analysis Price: $107,599.99.
⊢
⨀ I. Temporal Axis – Strategic Interval – (1H):
▦ EMA 9 – ($107,799.64):
∴ The 9-period EMA remains above the current price, signaling downward rejection from short-term momentum line;
∴ It recently crossed below the EMA21, reinforcing a weakening of bullish impulse.
✴ Conclusion: EMA9 now acts as intraday resistance, confirming that immediate market strength has decayed and volatility expansion may continue unless reclaimed.
⊢
▦ EMA 21 – ($107,861.93):
∴ EMA21 is sharply curved downward, validating loss of directional conviction from the previous bullish run;
∴ This level aligns with a former consolidation zone, now potentially serving as a resistance pivot.
✴ Conclusion: EMA21 confirms a short-term trend break, and the inability to reclaim this line would prolong corrective action.
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▦ EMA 50 – ($107,703.87):
∴ The EMA50 was breached decisively in the previous candle cluster, now positioned above price;
∴ Slope is turning neutral-to-down, reflecting a transition from trend to turbulence.
✴ Conclusion: EMA50 shift implies structural vulnerability in the intermediate frame, amplifying bearish tactical weight if no recovery emerges swiftly.
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▦ SMA 100 – ($107,007.08):
∴ SMA100 is currently positioned just below price, offering momentary support in case of further weakness;
∴ Horizontal alignment indicates a pause or inflection zone, lacking directional strength.
✴ Conclusion: SMA100 is a neutral-bullish support shelf, but could flip to active resistance if breached intraday.
⊢
▦ SMA 200 – ($105,890.26):
∴ The SMA200 remains firmly upward-sloping and untouched — a sign of medium-trend resilience.
∴ It defines the lower structural boundary for this time-frame.
✴ Conclusion: SMA200 still holds bullish structural integrity, but if reached, it would represent a full reversion of recent strength.
⊢
▦ Volume + EMA 21 – (Current Vol: 5.31 BTC):
∴ Volume shows an uptick during bearish candle clusters — indicative of active sell-side participation;
∴ The EMA21 on volume reveals a rising slope, confirming that volatility is not passive, but driven by conviction.
✴ Conclusion: Volume action supports the thesis of deliberate distribution, not merely rotational choppiness.
⊢
▦ VWAP (Session) – ($107,995.35):
∴ Price has broken decisively below VWAP, showing institutional disengagement or absence of bid reinforcement;
∴ VWAP now serves as magnetic resistance during any mean-reversion attempts.
✴ Conclusion: VWAP position confirms that price is under fair-value, and current path is dominated by tactical sellers.
⊢
▦ Bollinger Bands – (Lower Band: $107,007.08):
∴ Bands have widened, with price hugging the lower edge - a hallmark of volatility expansion;
∴ Mean price ($107,895.00) sits significantly above spot, reinforcing downside pressure.
✴ Conclusion: BB's suggest momentum breakdown, with price entering statistically stretched, yet uncorrected territory.
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▦ RSI + EMA 9 – (RSI: 87.06 | EMA: 92.92):
∴ RSI has sharply fallen from extreme overbought, but remains above the 70-level — reflecting ongoing exit from euphoric levels;
∴ The EMA over RSI is crossing below, signaling loss of short-term strength and potential trend reversal.
✴ Conclusion: RSI behavior implies a momentum peak has passed, though correction may still be in early phase.
⊢
▦ MACD – (MACD: 1.87 | Signal: -99.46 | Histogram: 101.33):
∴ MACD histogram turned sharply positive following a steep drop, suggesting a potential pause in bearish acceleration;
∴ Lines are converging but remain well below the zero axis - no bullish crossover yet.
✴ Conclusion: MACD reflects oversold relief, but not reversal. Current state favors tactical caution rather than confidence.
⊢
▦ ATR (14, RMA) – (315.31):
∴ ATR remains elevated, confirming ongoing high volatility and larger-than-average candle bodies;
∴ This level sustains a risk zone scenario, where price swings may be unpredictable.
✴ Conclusion: ATR indicates volatility expansion persists, further validating the need for defensive tactical posture.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – Technical Oracle:
∴ The technical constellation on the 1H chart reveals a clear breakdown of short-term bullish structure, now transitioning into a tactically bearish phase;
∴ The rejection from VWAP and convergence of all EMA's above price confirm that any recovery must reclaim the 107.800–108.000 cluster to negate downside bias;
∴ The current support rests on SMA100, yet its flat orientation and proximity to price suggest fragility, not strength. Meanwhile, SMA200 at 105.890 represents a more significant structural floor - its breach would mark a deeper tactical deterioration;
∴ Volatility metrics (BB and ATR) indicate that the market is no longer coiled - it has entered expansion, and directional bias is momentarily controlled by sellers. RSI exiting overbought and MACD’s unresolved negative zone further support the thesis of ongoing correction, not mere pause;
✴ Conclusion: In essence, the market has shifted into a correctional pulse, guided by structural breakdowns and expanding volatility. Tactical recoveries remain possible, but fragile and likely limited unless EMA's are reclaimed with force.
⊢
∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence – (Source: CryptoQuant):
▦ Exchange Netflow Total – (All Exchanges) – (Last Recorded: +2.1K BTC):
∴ Recent spike in netflow reveals a sudden influx of Bitcoin into centralized exchanges, marking the first positive divergence after a long series of outflows;
∴ Such inflows historically precede tactical distribution events or profit-taking phases, especially following extended rallies.
✴ Conclusion: Netflow confirms that holders are actively preparing to sell, giving real on-chain weight to the price rejection seen on the 1H chart.
⊢
▦ Short-Term Holder SOPR – (Latest Value: 1.012):
∴ SOPR sits slightly above 1.0, but descending - indicating a transition from profit realization to potential break-even or loss selling;
∴ If the trend continues and dips below 1.0, it marks capitulation from recent buyers — often a trigger for volatility spikes or local bottoms.
✴ Conclusion: Current STH SOPR signals weakening conviction among short-term holders, supporting a corrective narrative rather than trend continuation.
⊢
🜎 Strategic Insight – On-Chain Oracle:
∴ The on-chain substrate aligns precisely with the tactical weakness shown in the chart. The positive exchange netflow acts as a material indicator of sell-side readiness;
∴ This inflow, breaking the historical trend of outflows, marks a shift in intent - from holding to liquidation;
∴ Simultaneously, the Short-Term Holder SOPR sits on a critical edge. Its descent toward the 1.0 threshold implies that recent buyers are either approaching breakeven or beginning to capitulate;
∴ This fragile posture typically amplifies local corrections, especially when coupled with rising volatility;
∴ On-chain momentum no longer supports bullish continuation. Instead, it reflects hesitation, rotation, and distribution - all hallmarks of a short-term correction phase, in alignment with the temporal analysis;
✴ Conclusion: The on-chain field confirms that the technical breakdown is not speculative - it is supported by active internal dynamics, signaling a pause or reversal in trend strength at a structural level.
⊢
⧈ Codicillus Silentii – Strategic Note:
∴ The current H1 formation is a textbook example of post-euphoric fragility. What appeared as steady accumulation has now transitioned into a volatile de-leveraging phase. The confluence of bearish momentum, increased volume, and netflow reversal suggests the market is entering a tactical contraction zone;
∴ No structural collapse is yet confirmed - but the absence of bullish defense at VWAP and EMA clusters denotes reduced resilience. Until these are reclaimed, all attempts at recovery must be viewed with caution.
✴ Conclusion: Silence in structure signals preparation - not passivity. The next move shall emerge not from noise, but from the void left by exhaustion.
⊢
𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation:
∴ Structurally Bearish – Tactically Suspended ;
∴ The 1H chart shows a break below short-term momentum zones (EMA's, VWAP), confirming structural fragility;
∴ Despite momentary support on SMA100, the loss of upward slope across the EMA's and RSI reversal validate a structural bearish bias;
✴ Conclusion: Tactical direction remains suspended until one of two pivots is breached: either VWAP (~107.995) reclaimed, or SMA200 (~105.890) broken.
⊢
⧉
⚜️ Magister Arcanvm – Vox Primordialis!
𓂀 Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy.
⧉
⊢
BTCUSD 6/30/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you ANOTHER update, to ANOTHER successful call-out, with ANOTHER Top-Down Analysis.
_SnipeGoat_
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Bitcoin (BTC): Bloody Monday | Sellers Taking Over...or Not?Bloody Monday, as many call it, sellers are gaining dominance over the current area, which might send prices back as low as $105,900, where our middle line of BB is sitting.
As of now, we are expecting to see slight downward movement, and once near that middle line, we want to see some buyside volume to accumulate, as if we do not see it, then further movement to lower zones is our play here.
Swallow Academy
BTC/USD Long Setup – Buy the Dip into SupportMarket Context:
Bitcoin is currently in a retracement phase after rejecting from the local high near 111,900. Despite the short-term pullback, the broader structure remains bullish. This setup is based on a retracement into a key support zone, offering a potential entry for the next leg up.
Setup Idea:
Price is pulling back into a confluence area that includes:
The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at 105,454
Previous structure support
A retest of the broken diagonal trendline
This zone is expected to act as demand, providing a favorable long entry opportunity.
Trade Plan:
Entry zone: Around 105,400
Stop loss: Below 104,100 (beneath structure and fib zone)
Target: Retest of the previous high near 111,890
Risk/Reward: High R potential with clearly defined invalidation
Notes:
If price breaks below 105,000 and fails to show buying strength, the setup becomes weaker. A decisive break below 103,900 invalidates the trade idea. Wait for bullish confirmation (e.g. higher low or volume reaction) in the entry zone before committing.
This is a clean, structured opportunity aligned with the prevailing trend. Patience and confirmation are key.
BTC CONTINUES TO PUSHBitcoin continues to press higher with quiet confidence. After reclaiming the $106,787 resistance level with a strong daily close last week, BTC has held the breakout and is now consolidating just above it – a textbook bullish retest. The 50-day moving average is rising beneath price, offering additional support as momentum builds. We’re seeing a small cluster of tight candles, hinting that the market is coiling for a potential move.
Volume has pulled back slightly since the breakout, but there’s no sign of aggressive selling. The structure remains clean: higher highs, higher lows, and a clear path toward the next major resistance at $112,000.
For now, it’s a bullish posture with strong technical support below and a stair-step climb in progress. Unless price falls back below $106,787, this looks like a base being built for continuation – not exhaustion.
Bitcoin - Will Bitcoin Hit a New ATH?!Bitcoin is trading above the 50- and 200-EMAs on the four-hour time frame and is within its short-term descending channel. Bitcoin can be bought from the demand zone indicated. A break of the channel ceiling would pave the way for Bitcoin to rise to a new ATH.
It should be noted that there is a possibility of heavy fluctuations and shadows due to the movement of whales in the market and compliance with capital management in the cryptocurrency market will be more important. If the downward trend continues, we can buy within the demand range.
In recent days, Bitcoin has been trading in a range of around $107,000, and the market is going through a consolidation phase with complex but deeply fundamental characteristics. What matters at this point is not just the current price, but the precise mix of capital flows, the behavior of major players, on-chain data, and macroeconomic ratios that shape Bitcoin’s short- and medium-term trajectory. Overall, although Bitcoin’s rapid growth after the halving has stopped, internal market signals point to a continuation of the upward trajectory in a more stable framework.
The first important component is the significant influx of institutional capital into the market via ETFs. In the past week, according to CoinShares, more than $1.24 billion in new capital entered crypto products, with Bitcoin accounting for more than $1.1 billion. This marks the 10th consecutive week of capital inflows into the market, bringing the total inflows for 2025 to over $15 billion. Prominent ETFs such as BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC are attracting hundreds of Bitcoins per day, indicating steady institutional demand that has weathered the momentary volatility and is more focused on long-term asset building.
Alongside this capital inflow, the Onchain data also paints a mixed but highly interpretable picture. While the average active address rate has declined slightly and the MVRV (market value to realized value) has fallen from 2.29 to 2.20, these changes are more indicative of profit-taking by investors than selling pressure! In fact, rather than fear of a correction or crash, the market is witnessing a “gentle shift of ownership” between short-term and long-term holders. UTXO data also shows a roughly 5% increase in Bitcoin held for over 8 years, a strong sign of long-term accumulation and a decrease in the willingness to sell at current prices!
This can be seen as a period of supply and demand equilibrium; a period in which large investors have entered, but on the other hand, some older players are taking reasonable profits. This has led to a kind of price consolidation, which in June showed itself with only 2% growth—the weakest monthly growth since July last year. However, CoinDesk and Glassnode analysts rightly emphasize that this consolidation is not a sign of market weakness, but rather evidence of the maturity of Bitcoin’s price behavior. The price is reacting to data rather than becoming emotional.
From a macroeconomic perspective, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the value of the dollar, and interest rates. While the market is still waiting for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, Bitcoin will remain in a quasi-expectant state until then, reacting to macro data, short-term and reactive. However, given that most ETFs follow long-term accumulation models, any stabilization in interest rates or easing geopolitical pressures could trigger a new wave of upside. Common analyst scenarios predict a range of $120,000-$130,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the summer if current conditions are maintained and capital inflows continue. In summary, Bitcoin is now at a stage where the dynamic combination of institutional accumulation, supply and demand balance, and on-chain data has transformed it from a purely risky asset into a strategic investment vehicle. The market has moved beyond the emotional phase and entered a phase of stability and maturity. This is a promising sign for long-term investors, provided that risk management is maintained and sensitivity to macro events is maintained. Bitcoin is preparing for the next stage of its rally—but unlike in the past, this time it is standing on the shoulders of fundamentals that are much stronger than at any time in the asset’s history.
ETFs with the most volume traded on Friday
Total: $501M
BlackRock: $153M
Fidelity: $165M
Grayscale: $0M
BTC/USD 15M CHART PATTERNHere's a summary of your BTCUSD 15-minute trade setup:
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Trade Type: Buy
Entry Price: 107,500
Take Profit Levels:
1. TP1: 108,000
2. TP2: 108,300
3. TP3: 108,796
Stop Loss: 107,150
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Risk-Reward Analysis:
Risk (SL): 107,500 - 107,150 = 350 points
Reward:
TP1: 500 points → ~1.43 R/R
TP2: 800 points → ~2.29 R/R
TP3: 1,296 points → ~3.70 R/R
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Would you like me to turn this into a trading journal entry, script (e.g., for TradingView/MetaTrader), or analyze the probability based on recent price action?
June 25 Bitcoin Bybit chart analysisHello
This is Bitcoin Guide.
If you "follow"
You can receive real-time movement paths and comment notifications on major sections.
If my analysis was helpful,
Please click the booster button at the bottom.
This is the Bitcoin 30-minute chart.
Nasdaq indicators will be announced at 11 o'clock shortly.
Nasdaq is rising vertically + renewing its all-time high.
Accordingly, I ignored the weekly MACD dead cross and
proposed the strategy for the pattern by substituting Tether dominance.
Although it is not visible on the screen,
I created today's strategy with the condition of maintaining the long position of $100,587.9 that was confirmed on the 23rd.
* One-way long position strategy when the red finger moves
1. $106,746 long position entry section / When the purple support line is broken
or when section 2 is touched, stop loss price
2. $108,66 long position 1st target -> Good 2nd -> Great 3rd target price
When section 1 at the top touches, it can be connected to an upward trend,
and section 2 is a sideways market.
At the very bottom and the very top,
I have indicated the maximum possible trend until tomorrow afternoon.
Up to this point, I ask that you simply use my analysis for reference and use only
I hope that you will operate safely with the principle of trading and stop loss.
Thank you.
BITCOIN Rejected (so far) where it absolutely SHOULDN'T!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit today the top of the Channel Down pattern, which as we've discussed numerous times, is most likely on the long-term a Bull Flag technically. Still, this early test has so far turned into a rejection.
Early on to tell as the price remains above even the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) but if it breaks above the closes a 1D candle above the top of the pattern, we expect it to immediately target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level at 119500. We have analyzed of course why on the long-term the Target is at least $150k, but this is a shorter term analysis. Notice also how the 1D RSI has already broken above its Lower Highs trend-line.
As long as the price remains rejected within the Channel Down, it is possible to look for support on the 100000 level again, where this time it may make contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) in an attempt to 'attract' the last batch of buyers.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
demand spotted hunted and caughtits just becomes easier once you understand comprehensively how the forex market moves. its structures and its dynamics
See you in 2029!Maybe this is my last analysis after my long journey in Bitcoin.
Thank you and see you in 2029, I will be back after 20th Bitcoin journey.
Bitcoin Eyes $110K Target Above Key Support LevelBitcoin trades slightly below last week’s high near $107,660.0, while RSI 14 shows bearish divergence without a clear downward move.
Immediate support is at $107,230.0, and resistance at $108,550.0. If BTC closes above resistance, a rally toward $110,651.0 may follow. The bullish outlook remains valid as long as the price stays above $104,681.0.
Bitcoin: a decision week Previous week brought some relief among market participants, when it was announced that the U.S. Administration and China completed the deal regarding trade tariffs. Details of this deal have not been publicly disclosed, however, the markets reacted positively to it. The U.S. equity market gained significantly, while the crypto market managed to hold higher grounds. BTC started the week with a break of $105K toward the upside, testing the resistance at $108K. The majority of trades occurred between $106K and $107K.
The RSI continued to move above the 50 level, indicating that the market is still not ready to seek the oversold market side. The indicator is ending the week at the 56, bringing some probability for the overbought market side in the coming period. The MA50 continues to diverge from MA200, without an indication that the cross might come anytime soon.
Charts are showing that the BTC is currently on the cross road. There are equal probabilities that the coin might be traded toward both sides in the week ahead. On one hand, trades from the last week showed enough buying orders, which were holding the coin at the higher grounds, continuously seeking the break of the $108K level. However, if this market strength does not manage to support the BTC in the week ahead, then the reversal will be inevitable. In this case, the $105K will be the first stop.
BTC WILL PLAY THIS BOXES
### 🔴 **Bearish Order Blocks (Resistance Zones)**:
These are likely areas where price previously faced selling pressure and may again.
1. **Zone 1 (Lowest Red OB)**
📍 Range: \~108,300 – 108,800
🔹 Price is currently reacting at this zone.
🔹 If price fails to break and close above this zone with volume, expect a short-term rejection.
2. **Zone 2**
📍 Range: \~109,65,0 – 110,000
🔹 If price breaks above Zone 1, this becomes the next target/resistance.
3. **Zone 3 (Highest Red OB)**
📍 Range: \~110,500 – 111,500
🔹 Strongest resistance in this chart. If price reaches here, high chance of reversal unless strong momentum continues.
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### 🔵 **Bullish Order Blocks (Support Zones)**:
These are previous demand areas where buyers stepped in.
1. **Zone 1 (Highest Blue OB)**
📍 Range: \~106,900 – 107,600
🔹 Closest support below current price. If price retraces, it may bounce from here.
🔹 Good area for long entries if price gives bullish confirmation.
2. **Zone 2**
📍 Range: \~105,800 – 106,500
🔹 Stronger support zone; last defense before potential further downside.
🔹 Matches with yellow price marker (105,998.9), possibly a key liquidity level.
---
### 🧠 **Trade Idea Suggestion** (Based on your OB strategy):
#### ✅ **Bullish Scenario**:
* Break & close above 108,800 (top of current red OB) with volume → Look for retest to go **long**.
Market Manipulators Work Together to Exploit Hope | BM Is Over Iran–Israel Tensions Rising Again | A Hidden Gem for Traders
The conflict between Iran and Israel is heating up once again, and things are far from settled. Behind the scenes, there are signs that Iran may restart its nuclear weapons program, which could trigger a serious reaction — not just from Israel, but also from Western countries and nearby Arab nations.
If this conflict turns into a wider war, we could see major global impacts, including:
Rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East
Increased defense spending and movement in military-related stocks
Volatility in gold, USD, and crypto markets as investors seek safety
📉 While the world is watching quietly, this is actually a hidden signal for smart traders. The media might not be talking loudly about it yet, but war risk is building — and when it explodes into headlines, markets could react fast and hard.
🧠 Smart Traders Know:
Geopolitical tension = market moves
Fear fuels gold, oil, and crypto spikes
Nuclear headlines could shift investor psychology overnight
