120K is the Key.Morning folks,
Our last plan worked perfect - market re-tested 117K support and jumped out. If you have longs - you could keep it.
We consider now two alternative scenarios, although we think that this one with triangle is more probable, we do not exclude the H&S shape on 1H chart that could lead BTC down to 112-113K support area.
So, if you do not know how to deal with this - keep an eye on the 120K area and top of the right arm. Upside breakout will confirm H&S failure and triangle scenario. Otherwise, until market stands under 120K - consider H&S as a basic scenario, just for safety.
Take care, S.
BTCUSD trade ideas
Bitcoin: Breakout To 113K Refuses To Pull Back.Bitcoin is poised to test the 113K resistance over the coming week. It has broken the upper trend line resistance and simply refuses to retrace in any meaningful way. With a continuously weakening dollar and other economic inflationary pressures, it will take a surprise negative catalyst to turn this around at least to the point of testing a high probability trend support on this time frame. Here is the way to play this environment:
Buying this breakout for time horizons longer than a swing trade requires a big risk tolerance. While this leg is likely to be the Wave 5 of 5 that I have been writing for some time and can see Bitcoin test some major new highs, investing here still puts you at the mercy of the market. The nearest support is around the 103 to 105K area at minimum and just not worth the risk in my opinion at current levels for INVESTING.
Swing trades are a great way to participate in the breakout continuation. Risk can best be defined by the current candle low or previous candle low. Profit objective now is 113K or 120K area. The Trade Scanner Pro actually called a long and offered numerous opportunities to enter over a week and a half ago. I have been reviewing this regularly on my live stream forecast every Monday at 3 PM ET. It helps immensely to have levels and risk defined for these type of situations in advance so that you know how to adjust your size.
Otherwise the optimal way to go about this is trade the smaller time frames. I will always suggest this near highs and breakouts on larger time frames. The reason is simple: risk can be tightly controlled. This requires some kind of rules or guidelines to judge the market, along with a way to confirm. Using the Trade Scanner Pro for example, the analysis component is easy: trend is bullish on all small time frames. This means you wait for a trade suggestion on the time frame that you regularly trade (1 min or 5 min f or example).
No matter what type of trend following system or rules you use, by aligning with the bigger picture and confirming a setup in some way is what puts the probabilities on your side. The smaller the time frame you operate, the more precise your risk management can be.
Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.
Is Bitcoin Working Out a New Leg Up? Onchain Data Says It May BeDiamond hands are waving goodbye and institutions are loading up — it’s why Bitcoin may be struggling to break out of its current consolidation range. How long can this accumulation phase continue?
And yes — we look at the trades of the decade — two transactions where each one moved a cool billie from a $7.8K investment in 2011.
Some people cling to their Bitcoin BITSTAMP:BTCUSD stash like it’s their last protein bar before a marathon. Others, apparently, wake up one day and decide to dump their coins and browse the market for islands.
Welcome to the silent shift that’s redefining the big players in the Bitcoin market, worth about $2.2 trillion as per data from our Crypto Coins Heatmap .
Old-school whales — the very early adopters and miners holding the OG wallets — are quietly selling, while institutional heavyweights sweep in to buy every dip (part of the reason why lately every breakout never breaks out).
Over the past year, these OG whales have shed about half a million Bitcoin — worth north of $50 billion — according to data from 10x Research. And guess who’s gobbling it all up? ETFs, corporate treasuries, and family offices that didn’t want anything to do with crypto five years ago.
Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Is it just Bitcoin being Bitcoin? Let’s pull up the charts, squint at the data, and see what the world’s most famous digital coin might be plotting next.
📈 A Record High — And Now What?
So here’s the setup. Bitcoin has been strutting under its record high of $111,000 for months now. You’d think the hype machine — from Trump’s pro-crypto administration, to corporate balance sheets going full Michael Saylor (looking at you, GameStop NYSE:GME ) — would send BTC blasting past the Moon and landing on Mars.
Instead? It’s just... chilling. Volatility’s drying up like the last drop of liquidity in a summer Friday session. And the reason is surprisingly simple: the massive handover happening between big, anonymous early adopters and the suit-and-tie institutional crowd.
😌 From Wild Ride to Easy Cruising?
You could argue this is exactly what Bitcoin needs: maturity, respectability, less drama. But don’t tell that to the day traders who want 20% swings before breakfast. As these whales get out and institutions get in, analysts say the upside could be capped at a chill 10% to 20% a year.
Good news for your retirement portfolio, maybe not so great for that “Lambo by Labor Day” dream.
Institutions now hold about 25% of all Bitcoin in circulation — and once these get in, they tend to sit tight for years.
🚀 The $1.1 Billion Time Capsule
Speaking of whales: ever wonder what happens when a Bitcoin wallet goes dark for 14 years? It pops back online to make your mind melt.
On April 3, 2011, a wallet labeled “1HqXB...gDwcK” moved 23,377 BTC to three addresses. At the time, Bitcoin was worth a mere 78 cents. Fast forward: two of those receiving wallets, each with 10,000 BTC, sat dormant for over a decade.
This month, both wallets moved their treasure troves — worth over $1.1 billion each — within 30 minutes of each other. Talk about a coordinated exit. What’s behind the move? Tax planning? A lost key finally found?
A savvy crypto thief who figured how to crack the earliest key generation method? We may never know. Also, OG guy, if you’re reading this — props for the all-at-once move without even a test transaction.
⛓️ What Onchain Data Says
Onchain data is like reading tea leaves for nerds with Bloomberg terminals. It says the supply is tightening — not because there’s less Bitcoin, but because fewer coins are actually available to trade.
When long-term holders move coins, that typically signals big-picture changes. Here’s the twist: the net effect has been… stability. Institutional demand, like Bitcoin exchange-traded funds , soaks up supply just as fast as whales drip it back in.
That’s why Bitcoin’s been stuck in this $100K–$110K limbo, ping-ponging while the accumulation phase is still going strong.
👀 So, Is a New Leg Up Coming?
This is where the optimists and realists start to bicker over the charts. On the one hand, the structural handover to institutions makes Bitcoin more credible, more regulated, and more boring.
But less volatility can mean steadier gains — especially if you believe that the world will always want an inflation hedge that no central bank can print into oblivion.
On the other hand, a sideways market can test your patience more than a typical drawdown. Some of the whales are gone, the suits have arrived, and the easy moonshots might not be so easy anymore.
🌱 The Trade-Offs of Growing Up
Bitcoin was born in the wild west of finance — an anonymous, volatile, meme-fueled phenomenon. Now, it’s drifting deep into the mainstream. That might limit the fireworks, but it also locks in its place as an asset class that’s not going away.
🌊 Closing Thoughts: The Next Billion-Dollar Move
Will we see another $7,800 investment turn into a cool $1 billion? Maybe not exactly like that. But the game isn’t over — it’s just evolving.
Keep your eyes on the whales, the ETFs, the Fed’s next move , and those onchain breadcrumbs.
Over to you , chart-watchers: does this calm consolidation make you bullish, bearish, or just plain bored? Share your thoughts in the comments!
BTC - Capitulation. Now Time For A Bounce?Whenever there is a big impulsive rally, dumb money will come rushing in to buy.
And thus we can somewhat expect the market maker to print a shakeout for them to exit at best price and dumb money to carry the bags at worst price.
...
In this area we have multiple charts providing the liquidity zones for the shakeouts:
The upside shakeout (long wick) printed on TOTAL through ATH:
...
Before I make the next point, lets see the design of the chart bots 10 years ago in 2015.
Notice that the high and low of the trading range is set by the impulsive high then initial slump:
That sets the trading range.
Once set; the chart bots then print a liquidity sweeping slightly higher high...
Which slumps back to liquidity sweep the lows of the trading range.
From there the next wave up begins.
...
Now notice in these charts from the last 2 days, that the trading range was similar to that of 2015.
But once the range was set; rather than printing a simple slightly higher high, the more evolved chart bots printed a wild impulsive move up to draw in buyers.
This then became a very impulsive smackdown.
...
Although going on a wild journey, the price is effectively similar to the pattern of 2015; liquidity sweep at the highs and now it is below the low.
Notice on these 2 charts from the last two days that the support that Bitcoin has hit today was the obvious trading range low - similar to 2015.
And so the question is now; whether it will also be a liquidity sweep at the lows and a bounce will follow?
Notice on the chart, there was a big smackdown and then we have had another fast smackdown (arrow) to take price beneath the lows.
This looks very much like a fear test - where the chart bots try to sell you another immediate capitulation, but yet the price holds in the zone of higher liquidity below support.
Wyckoff would call these 2 lows SC Selling CLimax and ST Secondary Test.
The selling climax completes the real bearish wave down.
Secondary Test is the probe into higher liquidity which is a fear test to scare longs away.
...
So if we consider that history may not repeat, but it does rhyme then there will likely be a bounce in this area - as the market maker gets best price for their short positions while dumb money panic sell their long positions at a loss.
Not advice
BITCOIN Is there enough time for another parabolic rally?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is practically consolidating on the short-term, having just recently been rejected off its new All Time High (ATH). Despite the short-term volatility, the long-term outlook is still a very strong, structured uptrend, a Channel Up pattern that is now technically aiming for its next Higher High.
Incredibly enough, this Channel Up since the November 2022 market bottom, has been almost entirely within the Buy Zone (green) of the Fibonacci Channel Up going back all the way to April 2013!
As you can see during the previous two Cycles, every time BTC got above that Buy Zone, it started a parabolic rally. So far, we haven't got such rally on the current Cycle and with time running out (assuming the 4-year Cycle model continues to hold), do you think we will get one this time around?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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[BITCOIN] - Where is Potential TOP (ATH) of the Bull Cycle?Many people wondering where is the potential TOP of the current Bitcoin Bull Run? Besides setting a Fibo Retracement, we can take a look at the past. The current situation on CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart reminds me of what we've seen in the end of 2024, here is why:
Big ascending channel, price perfectly moves inside without breaking borders
Descending consolidation inside the bull flag
Strong breakout and pump towards the resistance of the channel
👉 According to this pattern, the target for the current Bitcoin upward move should be located in the $140,000 zone. Keep this in mind when planning your trades.
BITCOIN - Price can bounce up from support line to $125000Hi guys, this is my overview for BTCUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
For a long time, the price was trading sideways inside a wide flat range between the $99000 support area and the $112000 resistance level.
After accumulating volume, bitcoin made a strong upward impulse and performed a breakout, pushing above the top of the flat.
Following this movement, the price action began to form a rising wedge pattern, moving between its clear support and resistance lines.
Recently, price tested the resistance line of the wedge and then started a predictable correction back down towards support.
Now, BTC is approaching the support line of the wedge, which aligns with the important horizontal support area around $112000-$113500.
I expect that the price can test this support line and then bounce up to the $125000 resistance line of the wedge.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
Disclaimer: As part of ThinkMarkets’ Influencer Program, I am sponsored to share and publish their charts in my analysis.
127KMorning folks,
So, BTC shows even better performance that we thought, although it obviously something stands behind, this is not market-natural motion. Anyway, we consider 127K level as all-time nearest target that stands on monthly chart.
If any pullback starts (BTC now is at daily overbought and near Yearly Resistance Pivot), we keep an eye on 117.2K and 113.5K levels to decide on long entry
BTC Nearing Completion of Wave 3Bitcoin is approaching the end of its Wave 3 movement, which suggests a possible correction phase in the near future.
However, this is likely just a temporary pause before the next bullish wave continues the uptrend.
Stay patient and watch for key support levels to prepare for the next buying opportunity.
Bearish reversal off Fibonacci confluence?The Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 121,983.11
1st Support: 112,086.50
1st Resistance: 128,114.70
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN Short-term Target = $117kBitcoin (BTCUSD) is coming off a 4H Golden Cross, attempting to hold the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as its short-term Support. The early hours of the E.U. session today show that this might be a difficult task, however comparison with May's Bullish Leg, gives positive signs.
Almost the entire month of May sequence has been an uptrend, which looks very similar to today's. Almost identical rises from their bottoms (+13.60% against +12.60%) until the first top, with similar 4H RSI fractals also, we can expect the current uptrend to make a second top soon near the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $117000.
Are you expecting such an outcome in the coming days? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BRIEFING Week #27-28 : Distancing from US MarketsHere's your weekly update ! Brought to you each weekend with years of track-record history..
Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;)
That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users.
Kindly,
Phil
SELL BTCUSD for bullish divergence trend reversal STOP LOSS: 120SELL BTCUSD for bullish divergence trend reversal STOP LOSS: 120,246
Regular Bearish Divergence
In case of Regular Bearish Divergence:
* The Indicator shows Lower Highs
* Actual Market Price shows Higher Highs
We can see a strong divergence on the MACD already and There is a strong trend reversal on the daily time frame chart.....
The daily time frame is showing strength of trend reversal from this level resistance so we are looking for the trend reversal and correction push from here .....
TAKE PROFIT: take profit will be when the trend comes to an end, feel from to send me a direct DM if you have any question about take profit or anything
Remember to risk only what you are comfortable with........trading with the trend, patient and good risk management is the key to success here...
Bitcoin Macro Cycles: Sell Signal at RSI 90Bitcoin’s historical market cycles, using monthly RSI data to identify previous bull market peaks. Notable tops in 2013, 2017, and 2021 are highlighted, with the next potential peak projected around October 2025. A consistent pattern emerges where each market top aligns with the monthly RSI reaching or nearing the 90 level, indicating extremely overbought conditions.
Sell when the monthly RSI hits 90. This has consistently marked previous market tops and can serve as a reliable signal for long-term investors.
Bitcoin Dips On High VolumeThe Bitcoin daily chart paints a nuanced picture following Tuesday’s pullback – which came on the highest volume day since the $74K bottom in mid‑April, specifically on Coinbase. But notably, that surge in volume was primarily driven by selling, not buying – a key detail that shifts the tone of the candle.
Despite the aggressive downward move, price found support around $116,000 and recovered into the close, finishing the day above $117,000. However, the heavy sell volume behind that move suggests it wasn’t just a casual dip – it was real distribution.
That said, bulls showed resilience on Wednesday, pushing price back toward $119,000 and defending the key $116,000–$118,000 zone. If Bitcoin can maintain this level and digest the selloff without rolling over, it may absorb the supply and build a base for continuation.
But traders should stay cautious – high‑volume sell days near local highs can sometimes mark short‑term tops or signal a shift in momentum. The $112,000 breakout zone remains the critical downside level to watch if the current range fails.
Bitcoin (BTC): Targeting $140K | Our ATH for This Bullish Cycle$120K was broken too easily, and we are now setting our new ATH to $140K, which will be our last target and local top before entering into a bearish market.
Now, as we recently had a strong break of structure that was not retested properly (meaning buyers have not secured this area), combined with the RSI being in the overbought zone, we might see some pullback happening anytime from here so keep an eye out for it.
About RSI, our yellow line is still in the neutral area, and we see the demand and buyside volume growing, so we are going to look for that line to also enter into overbought zones before looking for potential selloffs.
Swallow Academy
Bitcoin Running Out Of TIME.Bulls are doing a nice job at holding price in a tight range but are running out of TIME from the 1hr and 4hrs TF's pov while the Daily still needs a few days more to complete its setup for its next burst.
As long as Bitcoin stays within that $106k - $110k range soon we will be testing the ATHs which it should it done by now but its playing a little bit lazy.
Bitcoin still has like 26 1hr bullish candles of TIME to go as high as it can before the next drop take place and that drop will be the one that can put and danger the uptrend direction again so the higher the drop starts the less damage to the trend bears will do.
Buckle up ladies and gentlemen cause Bitcoin will get wild again.
BITCOIN facing the most important Roadblock of the Cycle.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) reached $112000 yesterday, testing the May 22 2025 All Time High (ATH) and immediately got rejected. This ATH rejection is key to the continuation of the bullish trend as the entirety of the ATH Resistance Zone is perhaps the last (and most important) Roadblock before the final rally of the Cycle that could potentially price the new Top.
You can see that this Resistance Zone already had 3 rejections previous on its bottom and yesterday was the first one on its top.
A break above it can target $118400 at least within days, in anticipation of a +10.20% Bullish Leg, similar to the one following the June 22 Low.
If the rejection prevails however, we may see a pull-back that will test the bottom of the (blue) Channel Up.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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