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BTCUSD trade ideas

BTCUSD - Smart Money Trap Before the Next Move?1. Market Structure & BOS (Break of Structure): We can observe multiple BOS levels around July 10–12, signaling a strong bullish transition. 2. Break of Structure (BOS) Definition: BOS occurs when price breaks above a previous swing high with conviction. Application on Chart: The BOS on July 11 marked the continuation of bullish market structure. This indicated strong buying pressure, often driven by institutional order flow. 📉 3. Fair Value Gap (FVG) Definition: A Fair Value Gap is an inefficiency or imbalance in the market where price moves too quickly, skipping potential orders. On Chart: The FVG is present between July 11–12. Expectation: Price often returns to these zones to “rebalance” or mitigate orders before continuing the trend. Educational Note: FVGs act as magnet zones and are often used to identify entry points or liquidity pools. 💧 4. Liquidity Sweep Definition: A liquidity grab occurs when price spikes above a recent high or low to trigger stop-loss orders before reversing. On Chart: Just above resistance, a liquidity grab took place. Purpose: Institutions often sweep liquidity before large moves to fill larger orders. 🔹 Resistance & Supply Zone: The resistance area between 122,150–123,500 has held firmly, causing a notable correction. This region aligns with institutional order blocks, suggesting potential smart money selling. 🔹 Support & Demand Zone: The nearest support zone lies at 115,984, marked by previous consolidation and BOS. Price is likely to revisit this zone, acting as a retest for demand re-entry, providing a strong buy-side opportunity if confirmed. 🔹 Current Price Action: BTC is consolidating around 119,253, with a possible liquidity sweep above short-term highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Mentor_Michael03
BTC ShortBTC’s 1‑hour structure is showing clear signs of weakness following rejection from the premium supply zone between 122 000 and 123 200. After sweeping equal highs and tapping into the 50 % internal retracement level around 119 900, price sold off sharply, breaking below the intraday demand at ~119 000. This shift in market structure signals bearish intent in the short term. The strong rejection, combined with increased sell-side volume, indicates that the rally was more likely a liquidity grab than true bullish strength. As a result, BTC is now expected to continue lower toward the 117 000 level to clear resting liquidity beneath recent lows. This level aligns with the previous CHOCH (Change of Character) and is a key liquidity pocket. Once BTC grabs the liquidity below 117 000, we anticipate a potential bullish reaction and reversal, as smart money may use this area to re-accumulate and drive price higher. However, until that liquidity is collected, the bias remains bearish in the short term. As always, proper risk management is essential—define your invalidation clearly and manage position size responsibly to protect capital in this volatile environment.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by ProSignalai
BTCUSD Long📈 Scenario Outlook: Bias: Bullish Preferred Play: Long setups are favorable as long as price holds above 116,600 demand. BTC is expected to push through the intermediate supply zones and potentially attempt a full retracement toward the previous CHOCH high at 123,231. 📌 Key Zones ("Your Borders"): 🟢 Demand Zone (Support) Zone: 116,600 – 117,600 This is a well-marked reaccumulation zone, aligned with previous demand and the CHOCH origin. Price respected this level multiple times, showing it as a valid base for long entries. As long as BTC holds above this zone, the bullish thesis remains valid. 🔴 Supply Zones (Resistance Targets) First Supply: 119,000 – 120,000 Aligned with the 50% retracement level (11964.22) from the previous high to low swing. Expect short-term reaction here; however, this level may not hold if momentum continues building. Upper Supply Zone: 121,500 – 123,200 This is the final major resistance before revisiting the previous high at 123,231. A sweep or rejection from here could form a double top or distribution structure, depending on macro factors and volume.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ProSignalai
BTC Touching Heights !BTC Extremely bullish. BTC analysis shows that it touch supply zone of 107500 and later went to cross the day before previous day high which was residing on 109,684 and then swept previous week high which was 110,600 with strong buying. It hinted crossing the all time high. After crossing all time high of 111,900 gave a change of around 6000 dollars , At this position the BTC outlook shows it may show reversal of around 4K dollars change. The possibilities for the BTC are shown here. Take risk accordingly. Disclaimer : It isn't a financial advice check my analysis and decide on your own.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
by srj_fxtrader
Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of July 11, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook: In the last week's trading session, Bitcoin has demonstrated a significant surge, achieving historical prices as anticipated by TSS for an extended period. The cryptocurrency has successfully completed both the Outer Coin Rally 114500 and the Inner Coin Rally 118200. Presently, Bitcoin is poised to celebrate this notable accomplishment with a victory lap, but it may face a potential downward trajectory, targeting the Mean Support level of 112000. This anticipated decline will necessitate the resilience to a retest of Inner Coin Rally 118200. The designated targets for the Outer Coin Rally at this juncture are 122000, 126500, 132200, and 135000.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradeSelecter
Bitcoin Strategic Compression Beneath the Cloud Gate.⊣ ⟁ BTC/USD - BINANCE - (CHART: 4H) - (July 17, 2025). ◇ Analysis Price: $118,099.62. ⊣ ⨀ I. Temporal Axis - Strategic Interval – (4H): ▦ EMA9 - (Exponential Moving Average - 9 Close): ∴ EMA9 is currently positioned at $118,286.83, marginally above the current price of $118,099.62; ∴ The slope of the EMA9 has begun to turn sideways-to-downward, indicating loss of short-term acceleration; ∴ The price has crossed below EMA9 within the last two candles, suggesting an incipient rejection of immediate bullish continuation. ✴️ Conclusion: Short-term momentum has weakened, positioning EMA 9 as immediate dynamic resistance. ⊢ ▦ EMA21 - (Exponential Moving Average - 21 Close): ∴ EMA21 is measured at $118,018.67, positioned slightly below both price and EMA9, indicating a recent tightening of trend structure; ∴ The slope of EMA21 remains positive, preserving the medium-range bullish structure intact; ∴ EMA21 has been tested multiple times and held as support since July 15 - confirming tactical reliability as dynamic floor. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA21 stands as a critical pivot zone; any sustained breach would denote structural stress. ⊢ ▦ EMA50 - (Exponential Moving Average - 50 Close): ∴ EMA50 is currently located at $116,240.85, well below current price action; ∴ The curve maintains a healthy positive inclination, affirming preservation of broader intermediate trend; ∴ No contact or proximity to EMA50 over the last 20 candles - indicating strong bullish detachment and buffer zone integrity. ✴️ Conclusion: EMA50 confirms medium-term bullish alignment; not yet challenged. ⊢ ▦ EMA200 - (Exponential Moving Average - 200 Close): ∴ EMA200 stands at $110,539.69, forming the base of the entire 4H structure; ∴ The gradient is gradually rising, reflecting accumulation over a long time horizon; ∴ The distance between price and EMA200 reflects extended bullish positioning, yet also opens risk for sharp reversion if acceleration collapses. ✴️ Conclusion: Long-term structure remains bullish; early signs of overextension exist. ⊢ ▦ Ichimoku Cloud - (9, 21, 50, 21): ∴ Price is currently above the Kumo (cloud), placing the pair within a bullish regime; ∴ Tenkan-sen (conversion) and Kijun-sen (base) lines show narrowing separation, suggesting momentum compression; ∴ Senkou Span A > Span B, and the cloud ahead is bullishly twisted, though thinning - indicating potential vulnerability despite structural advantage. ✴️ Conclusion: Bullish regime intact, but loss of momentum and cloud compression warrant caution. ⊢ ▦ Volume + EMA21: ∴ Current volume for the latest candle is 3 BTC, compared to the EMA21 of 84 BTC; ∴ This indicates an extremely low participation phase, often associated with distribution zones or indecisive consolidation; ∴ Previous impulsive candles (July 15) reached well above 100 BTC - the current contraction is stark and strategically significant. ✴️ Conclusion: Absence of volume threatens trend continuation; energy depletion apparent. ⊢ ▦ RSI - (21) + EMA9: ∴ RSI (21) is positioned at 55.73, marginally above neutral zone; ∴ EMA 9 of RSI is 57.71, crossing downward against RSI - bearish micro signal; ∴ No divergence is present versus price action - oscillator confirms current stagnation rather than exhaustion. ✴️ Conclusion: RSI losing strength above neutral; lacks momentum for breakout, but no capitulation. ⊢ ▦ Stoch RSI - (3,3,21,9): ∴ %K is 21.44, %D is 45.34 - both pointing downward, in deacceleration phase; ∴ Recent rejection from overbought zone without full reset into oversold - signaling weak bullish thrust; ∴ Historical cycles show rhythmical reversals near current levels, but only with supportive volume, which is absent now. ✴️ Conclusion: Short-term momentum failed to sustain overbought breakout - micro-correction expected. ⊢ ▦ MACD - (9, 21): ∴ MACD line is at -104.80, Signal line at 268.16 - large separation, histogram deeply negative; ∴ The bearish crossover occurred with declining volume, implying fading momentum rather than aggressive sell-off; ∴ No bullish divergence formed yet - continuation of correction remains technically favored. ✴️ Conclusion: MACD confirms trend exhaustion; no reversal in sight. ⊢ ▦ OBV + EMA 9: ∴ OBV is 71.13M, perfectly aligned with its EMA9 - indicating equilibrium in volume flow; ∴ No directional bias in accumulation or distribution - flatlining suggests passive environment; ∴ Prior OBV uptrend has stalled since July 15 - reinforcing narrative of hesitation. ✴️ Conclusion: Institutional flow is neutral; no aggressive positioning detected. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - Technical Oracle: The current price structure presents a classic post-impulse compression configuration within a preserved bullish environment. Despite the higher timeframe alignment, multiple short-term indicators exhibit tactical dissonance and signs of momentum decay. This inconsistency reflects a market caught between structural optimism and tactical hesitation. ♘ Key strategic signals - Structural Alignment: ∴ All major EMA's (9, 21, 50, 200) remain stacked in bullish order with no bearish crossovers imminent; ∴ Price remains above the Ichimoku Cloud and above EMA50 - both confirming structural dominance by buyers. ♘ Momentum Degradation: ∴ RSI (21) is drifting below its EMA9, weakening the momentum required for further upside continuation; ∴ Stochastic RSI has rolled over aggressively, failing to reach oversold before reversing - mid-cycle weakness is confirmed. ♘ Volume Collapse: ∴ The current volume profile is critically weak - 3 Bitcoin against an average of 84 Bitcoins (EMA21); ∴ Price attempting to sustain above EMA's with no conviction signals distribution or passivity. ♘ MACD & OBV: ∴ MACD histogram remains deep in negative territory, and no bullish crossover is visible; ∴ OBV is flat - neither accumulation nor distribution dominates, leaving directional thrust suspended. ✴️ Oracle Insight: ∴ The technical field is Structurally Bullish, but Tactically Compressed. ∴ No breakout should be expected unless volume decisively returns above baseline (84 Bitcoins EMA); ∴ Below $117,800, the structure risks transition into a corrective phase; ∴ Above $118,450, potential trigger zone for bullish extension if accompanied by volume surge. ♘ Strategic posture: ∴ Wait-and-observe regime activated; ∴ No entry condition satisfies both structure and momentum at present; ∴ Tactical neutrality is advised until confirmation. ⊢ ∫ II. On-Chain Intelligence - (Source: CryptoQuant): ▦ Exchange Reserve - (All Exchanges): ∴ The total Bitcoin reserves held on all exchanges continue a sharp and uninterrupted decline, now at ~2.4M BTC, down from over 3.4M in mid-2022; ∴ This downtrend has accelerated particularly after January 2025, with a visible drop into new lows - no accumulation rebound observed; ∴ Historically, every prolonged depletion of exchange reserves correlates with structural bullish setups, as supply becomes increasingly illiquid. ✴️ Conclusion: On-chain supply is structurally diminishing, confirming long-term bullish regime intact - mirrors technical EMA alignment. ⊢ ▦ Fund Flow Ratio - (All Exchanges): ∴ Current Fund Flow Ratio stands at 0.114, which is well below historical danger thresholds seen near 0.20-0.25 during local tops; ∴ The ratio has remained consistently low throughout the 2025 uptrend, indicating that on-chain activity is not directed toward exchange-based selling; ∴ Spikes in this indicator tend to precede local corrections - but no such spike is currently present, reinforcing the notion of non-threatening capital flow. ✴️ Conclusion: Capital is not rotating into exchanges for liquidation - volume weakness seen in 4H chart is not linked to sell intent. ⊢ ▦ Miners' Position Index - (MPI): ∴ The MPI sits firmly below the red threshold of 2.0, and currently ranges in sub-neutral levels (~0.5 and below); ∴ This suggests that miners are not engaging in aggressive distribution, and are likely retaining Bitcoin off-exchange; ∴ Sustained low MPI readings during price advances confirm alignment with institutional and long-term accumulation behavior. ✴️ Conclusion: Miner behavior supports structural strength - no mining-induced supply pressure present at this stage. ⊢ 🜎 Strategic Insight - On-Chain Oracle: ∴ Across the three strategic indicators, no on-chain evidence supports short-term weakness; ∴ Supply is declining - (Exchange Reserve ↓); ∴ Funds are not preparing for exit - (Flow Ratio stable); ∴ Miners are not selling - (MPI subdued). ✴️ This constellation reinforces the thesis of Structural Bullishness with Tactical Compression, and suggests that any pullback is not backed by foundational stress. ⊢ 𓂀 Stoic-Structural Interpretation: ∴ The multi-timeframe EMA stack remains intact and aligned - (9 > 21 > 50 > 200); ∴ Price floats above Ichimoku Cloud, and above EMA21 support, confirming elevated positioning within a macro bull channel; ∴ On-chain metrics confirm supply contraction, miner retention, and absence of fund rotation toward exchanges - structure remains sovereign; ∴ RSI - (21) slips under its EMA9 with low amplitude, indicating absence of energetic flow; ∴ Stoch RSI fails to reset fully and points downward - suggesting premature momentum decay; ∴ MACD histogram remains negative, while volume is significantly beneath EMA baseline (3 BTC vs 84 BTC); ∴ Price faces resistance at Kijun-sen ($118.451), acting as tactical ceiling; no breakout signal detected. ⊢ ✴️ Interpretatio Finalis: ∴ Structural integrity remains unshaken - the architecture is bullish; ∴ Tactically, however, the battlefield is fogged - silence reigns in volume, hesitation in oscillators; ∴ A true continuation requires volume resurrection and resolution above $118,450. Until then, neutrality governs the edge. ⊢ ⧉ Cryptorvm Dominvs · ⚜️ MAGISTER ARCANVM ⚜️ · Vox Primordialis ⌬ - Wisdom begins in silence. Precision unfolds in strategy - ⌬ ⧉ ⊢
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by Magister_Arcanvm
BTCUSD 7/16/2025Come Tap into the mind of SnipeGoat, as he gives you a Full Top-Down Analysis with a Deep Dive Down into the 30min Timeframe. This is One you don't want to miss. _SnipeGoat_ _TheeCandleReadingGURU_ #PriceAction #MarketStructure #TechnicalAnalysis #Bearish #Bullish #Bitcoin #Crypto #BTCUSD #Forex #NakedChartReader #ZEROindicators #PreciseLevels #ProperTiming #PerfectDirection #ScalpingTrader #IntradayTrader #DayTrader #SwingTrader #PositionalTrader #HighLevelTrader #MambaMentality #GodMode #UltraInstinct #TheeBibleStrategy
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TheeSnipeGoat
BTCUSD Technical Analysis – Break of Structure + SupportBTCUSD Technical Analysis – Break of Structure + Support/Resistance Strategy 🔍 Market Structure Insight The chart clearly shows multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) throughout the uptrend, indicating strong bullish momentum. Each BOS confirms a higher high formation and continued market strength. 📌 Key Zones Resistance Zone: Price recently tested this level and faced rejection, indicating potential short-term selling pressure. Support Zone: Price is currently retesting this level after a correction, showing signs of a possible bounce. It aligns well with the EMA support cluster (20–200 EMAs). 🔄 Current Price Action After a significant impulse move to the upside, BTC is now in a corrective phase. However, the support zone is holding, and there's potential for a new bullish wave if price sustains above $115,000. 📈 Bullish Scenario Price holds above support EMA cluster continues to act as dynamic support Break above $118,000 resistance could trigger the next rally toward $122,000+
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by Mentor_Michael03
Signs of Weekness: Is Bitcoin Losing Momentum?Last week, Bitcoin made a new all-time high and gave bulls some serious profits. Price action has been looking solid and strong ever since it broke above the psychological and technical level of $110,000. But now, we’re starting to see signs that the market might need a healthy retracement. On the daily chart, there’s a clear long wick at the top, which is a sign that buyers may be losing momentum up here. There’s also a Fair Value Gap (FVG) between roughly $115,200 and $112,200. In most cases, price tends to revisit these imbalances, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we dip back into that zone. I’m watching the midpoint around $113,700 because that could be a key level for a bounce if the bulls want to keep control. If that zone fails to hold or we see a clean breakdown without much of a reaction, there’s a chance we revisit the $110,000 breakout level. From a Fibonacci standpoint, the 0.382 retracement of the recent move from around $98K to $120K also lands near $111.6K, which adds some confluence to that area. Overall, I still think the trend is strong, but after this daily candle, I think that a 5–7% pullback wouldn’t be unusual or unhealthy. What are your thoughts? Are we just cooling off before another breakout, or is a deeper retracement on the table? Comments and suggestions?
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by billionaire_guru
watch the laws, not just the charts.stablecoins were once the rebels of finance—anchored to fiat yet untethered from traditional banking laws, but the tides are turning. Across major economies, lawmakers are drawing up legal frameworks that place stablecoins inside the banking sector rather than outside of it. This shift could be the most pivotal regulatory development since Bitcoin was born. But what does this really mean for traders, investors, and markets? In this @TradingView blog we’ll unpack the new laws on stablecoins entering the banking realm, and what their ripple effect might look like, using past regulatory shifts as a lens to foresee market behavior. 🧾 Section 1: What the New Stablecoin Laws Say Many regions—especially the EU, UK, Japan, and the US—are moving toward a model where stablecoin issuers must register as banks or hold full banking licenses, or at minimum, comply with banking-like oversight. Key pillars of these laws include: Full reserve requirements (1:1 backing in liquid assets) Audited transparency on reserves and redemptions KYC/AML compliance for users and issuers Supervision by central banks or financial regulators In the US, the House Financial Services Committee recently advanced a bill that would make the Fed the ultimate overseer of dollar-backed stablecoins. In the EU, MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) requires issuers of e-money tokens to be regulated financial institutions. Japan now allows banks and trust companies to issue stablecoins under strict regulations. 💥 Section 2: Why This Is a Big Deal Bringing stablecoins into the banking system could change how liquidity flows, how DeFi operates, and how capital moves across borders. Potential market impacts: Increased trust = more institutional money entering stablecoins and crypto markets. DeFi restrictions = protocols may face scrutiny if they allow unverified stablecoin usage. Flight from algorithmic or offshore stables to regulated, bank-issued stablecoins (e.g., USDC, PYUSD). On-chain surveillance increases, potentially limiting pseudonymous finance. Think of it as crypto’s "Too Big To Ignore" moment—where stablecoins become infrastructure, not outlaws. 📉 Section 3: Past Laws That Shaped Crypto Markets Let’s examine how previous regulations have affected crypto markets—offering clues about what to expect. 🧱 1. China’s Crypto Ban (2017–2021) Kicked off a massive market crash in 2018. Pushed mining and trading activity overseas, especially to the US and Southeast Asia. Resulted in more global decentralization, ironically strengthening Bitcoin’s resilience. 🪙 2. SEC Lawsuits Against XRP & ICO Projects Ripple’s XRP lawsuit caused delistings and volatility. Set a precedent for how tokens are treated under securities law. Resulted in more structured token launches (via SAFEs, Reg D, etc.). 🧮 3. MiCA Regulation in Europe (2023 Onward) Provided regulatory clarity, prompting institutions to engage more with regulated entities. Boosted legitimacy of Euro-backed stablecoins like EURS and Circle’s Euro Coin. Sparked a race among exchanges to gain EU registration (e.g., Binance France, Coinbase Ireland). Each of these regulatory waves caused temporary volatility, followed by long-term growth—as clarity invited capital. 📊 Section 4: The Possible Scenarios for the Market Here’s how things might play out as stablecoin laws become mainstream: Golden Path-Regulated stablecoins coexist with DeFi; innovation meets compliance - Bullish for crypto adoption and capital inflows. Walled Garden-Only bank-issued stablecoins are allowed; DeFi stifled -Neutral or bearish short-term, bullish long-term. Backlash-Overregulation pushes stables offshore or into non-compliant zones - Bearish, liquidity fragmentation returns. 🔍 Nerdy Conclusion: Stablecoins are no longer just tools for traders—they’re becoming the backbone of digital finance. Their formal entrance into banking law marks a turning point that traders must understand. While regulation has historically caused short-term fear, it often leads to long-term maturity in crypto markets. The stablecoin laws now in motion could unlock the next chapter of institutional adoption, cross-border finance, and perhaps, the integration of crypto into the real-world economy at scale. 💡 Nerdy Thought: When a technology becomes systemically important, it stops being ignored—it gets integrated. Stablecoins have reached that level. put together by : @currencynerd as Pako Phutietsile
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by currencynerd
Bitcoin pushes higher, but its not the only game in townBitcoin is up around 26% this year. A strong gain. But it’s not alone. The higher Bitcoin rises, the less the gains become in percentage terms. It's now in a different league, so a $1,000 or $10,000 move its necessarily what it used to be. Meanwhile, Gold, silver and copper have also pushed higher in 2025. The Nasdaq 100 is up too. All signs point to a weakening US dollar. When risk assets and commodities rally together, it's a signal. Investors are shifting. Not out of fear, but to diversify away from the dollar. This is a theme that’s building strength. Gold is up nearly over 25% YTD. Silver even more. Copper, the industrial bellwether, has joined the rally. These aren’t just trades. They’re strategic moves. A hedge against dollar debasement, inflation, and long-term fiscal risks in the US. The Nasdaq’s rise tells a similar story. Tech stocks benefit when yields fall and the dollar softens. Big tech also has global revenue exposure. A weaker dollar inflates their earnings in foreign currencies. What ties all this together? Loss of confidence in the dollar as the sole reserve hedge. Too much debt, too much printing. Central banks know it. They’ve been buying gold for years. Now, retail and institutional investors are catching on. Bitcoin, the digital alternative to gold, gets the headlines. But it’s part of a broader move. The USD remains the world’s most important currency. That’s not changing tomorrow. But its dominance is being questioned in ways we haven’t seen in decades. This isn’t just a crypto rally. It’s a dollar diversification play. And it’s gaining momentum. The forecasts provided herein are intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as guarantees of future performance. This is an example only to enhance a consumer's understanding of the strategy being described above and is not to be taken as Blueberry Markets providing personal advice.
OKX:BTCUSDLong
by Blueberry
BTC Massive SetupConsolidation for months between 91k and 106k - Classic Wyckoff setup as an accumulation/distribution - Price targets of: 121.878 (122k is the popular target) to the upside with 75,827 on the down - Saylor today put out news to be raising another $2 billion to buy BTC. Either he is going to be able to hold the floor or get washed out - Trade can be taken with confirmation of breakout on either side pretty easily as momentum will be so strong that being on the wrong side will most likely be an immediate stop out
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CrashoutCapital
Bitcoin’s Incoming Bear Market!🚀 Bitcoin’s Bullish Phase: The Final Push Before the Fall? Bitcoin is currently in the parabolic uptrend phase of its halving cycle, with price action closely following historical patterns. Since the last halving on April 15, 2024, Bitcoin has mined approximately 42,480 blocks, pushing the market closer to the 70,000-block threshold where the trend historically reverses into a deep bear market. Based on historical patterns, Bitcoin’s next major bull market peak is expected around 150,000 USD, approximately 70,000 blocks post-halving (projected for August 2025). However, investors must prepare for what follows—a severe bear market fuelled by miner capitulation. 🔥The 70,000-Block Bearish Reversal: Why It Happens Every Cycle 1. The Mining Difficulty Trap & Rising Costs Bitcoin’s mining difficulty adjusts every 2,016 blocks (~2 weeks) to maintain the 10-minute block interval. As BTC price surges in the bull market, more miners join the network, driving competition and difficulty higher. This raises mining costs and squeezes profit margins, making it harder for smaller miners to stay afloat. ✅ Bull Market (~0-70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) High BTC prices offset increased difficulty, allowing miners to hold rather than sell. Low sell pressure from miners keeps Bitcoin in an uptrend. ❌ Bear Market (~70,000 Blocks Post-Halving) After BTC peaks, prices decline but difficulty remains high. Mining costs remain constant, while block rewards drop. Weaker miners can’t afford to mine at a loss and are forced to sell their BTC holdings to cover operational expenses. 2. The Snowball Effect: How Miner Capitulation Triggers a Crash Once inefficient miners begin selling, a chain reaction unfolds: 1️⃣ Bitcoin price starts declining after the cycle peak (~12-18 months post-halving). 2️⃣ Miners struggle to remain profitable due to high difficulty and lower block rewards. 3️⃣ Miners begin offloading BTC to cover expenses, increasing supply in the market. 4️⃣ More BTC supply leads to further price drops, triggering panic selling. 5️⃣ Additional miners shut down operations, selling off reserves, further flooding the market. 6️⃣ Capitulation accelerates, causing a cascading effect similar to leveraged liquidations seen in past bear markets. 🔄 This cycle repeats until enough miners exit, difficulty adjusts downward, and BTC stabilizes. 3. Historical Proof: How Miner Capitulation Has Marked Every Bear Market Each Bitcoin bear market aligns with major miner capitulation events. Here’s how past cycles have played out: 📌 2012 Halving: Bull top in late 2013, miner capitulation in 2014, BTC fell -80%. 📌 2016 Halving: Bull top in late 2017, miner capitulation in 2018, BTC fell -84%. 📌 2020 Halving: Bull top in late 2021, miner capitulation in 2022, BTC fell -78%. 📌 2024 Halving: Expected bull top in late 2025, miner capitulation likely in 2026?, BTC decline TBD but estimated to be around -60%. 🔹 In all cases, BTC topped ~70,000 blocks after the halving, followed by a deep drawdown driven by miner capitulation. 🔹 The selling pressure from miners perfectly aligns with the start of major market crashes. 4. The Accumulation Phase: What Follows the Crash? After miners capitulate and difficulty adjusts downward, Bitcoin enters a sideways accumulation phase (~140,000-210,000 blocks post-halving). Weaker miners have already exited, reducing sell pressure. Surviving miners adjust to lower rewards and stop mass selling BTC. Smart money (whales & institutions) begin accumulating at undervalued prices. The MVRV ratio drops below 1, signalling a market bottom. Bitcoin stabilizes, setting the stage for the next bull cycle. This predictable recovery cycle lays the groundwork for Bitcoin’s next exponential rally into the next halving period. The Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction for 2025-2026 ✅ Bitcoin is currently on track to peak near ~$150,000 around 70,000 blocks post-halving (August 2025). ✅ Following this, BTC is expected to enter its bear market, with prices potentially falling to ~$60,000 (by December 2026). ✅ The primary catalyst for this crash will be miner capitulation, just as it has been in every prior cycle. Final Thoughts If history repeats, the Bitcoin market is set to follow a sharp parabolic rise to ~$150,000 before undergoing a 70,000-block miner-driven selloff into a multi-month bear market. Investors should be aware of this pattern and plan accordingly. Sources & Data Validation The insights presented in this article are based on historical Bitcoin price cycles, on-chain analytics, and mining difficulty trends from various sources, including: Blockchain Data (Glassnode, CoinMetrics) Historical BTC Halving Data (Bitcoin Whitepaper, Blockchain Explorers) Market Analysis Reports (Messari, Arcane Research) Macroeconomic Influences (Federal Reserve Reports, Global Liquidity Cycles) Disclaimer: Not an Investment Recommendation This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Conduct your own research and consult with a financial professional before making any investment decisions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Theperfectionist
10