BTCUSDT trade ideas
#BTC Update #8 – July 21, 2025#BTC Update #8 – July 21, 2025
Bitcoin isn’t moving in a textbook symmetrical triangle, but it’s trading in a similar, tight range, mostly bouncing around the highlighted box area in the chart. It’s attempting a new impulsive leg, but $120,000 remains a key resistance level, having rejected price several times already.
As long as $116,500 holds, there's no major risk for Long bias. However, considering the triangle-like structure, the short-term upside is limited to about 2% for now.
A breakout above the upper edge of this structure, particularly if $123,200 is broken with strong volume — would justify a Long position. Until then, I don’t plan on entering any trades.
The last corrective move has completed, and my next major upside target is $127,900. If further correction occurs, watch for potential support around $115,000, $113,000, and the strong base at $112,000 — though I don’t expect price to fall that low.
Local Top Confirmed, Short-Term Bearish Pressure BuildingBTC/USDT 1H – Local Top Confirmed, Short-Term Bearish Pressure Building
📍 Timeframe: 1 Hour
📍 Exchange: MEXC
📍 Pair: BTC/USDT
📍 Bias: Short-term bearish, watching for support re-test near 116k
Market Context:
BTC broke out aggressively earlier in the week, pushing above the 120k psychological level before forming a local top near 122k. Since then, we’ve seen:
A strong rejection wick at the top
Lower highs forming
A bearish engulfing candle marking the shift in momentum
Technical Observations:
Bearish Signs:
MACD histogram rolling over, showing fading bullish momentum
QQE MOD flipping red, indicating a shift toward bearish control
RSI crossing below 50 and trending downward — loss of bullish strength
A clean rejection off recent highs, creating a double top feel
Volume on the recent sell candle is higher than average, suggesting strength in the move down
Support Zones to Watch:
116.5k: Prior breakout zone and most recent demand zone
114.8k – 115.2k: Volume consolidation area; if broken, may invite sharper downside
112k: Key structure zone from previous sideways range
Potential Scenarios:
Bearish Continuation (more likely short term):
Break below 116.5k could lead to fast drop to 114.8k support
RSI and MACD momentum align with this move
Look for breakdown confirmation with volume spike + close under structure
Bullish Reversal (less likely unless invalidation):
Hold above 116.5k + reclaim of 118.2k with strength
RSI must turn up above 50 and MACD histogram flip blue
Could target re-test of 120k–121k if bullish momentum returns
Trading Approach:
Short-term traders may look for pullbacks to short under 118k with 116.5k as the first target
Swing traders should be cautious and wait for confirmation at 116k–115k zone before considering long re-entries
Avoid chasing breakouts — let the market confirm direction first
Conclusion:
BTC on the 1H chart shows signs of exhaustion after a strong run. The market is leaning toward a correction phase. Watch the key support levels — they will dictate whether this is a short-term dip or the start of a deeper move.
BTC - Sideways forever?!Compressing really hard here on BTC, look at:
- volume range becoming very concentrated, clean pingpong between VAL and VAH
- H4 trend compressing to almost a single point
- you can see from the purple lines that only internal liquidity is being taken on both sides
imo this sets us up for a potential fake out setup. There is so much liquidity on both sides in this small range, that on a very clean sfp of one side, the other side would have to rush out which pushes price quickly to the other side. We saw a little bit of that already with the sweep during the asia session today.
Of course the sfp needs to be valid, wait for a reclaim setup, there is always the chance the breakout/breakdown is valid, you don't want to be on the wrong side of that either.
BTC BEARISH TRADE SETUP DEVELOPING CHART PAATERNBearish Trade Setup Developing
The market is currently trading near 119,000, facing a strong resistance zone at 121,500. If the price fails to break and hold above this resistance, a downward move is expected.
📉 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 121,500
First Support / Setup Area: 116,000
Target Level: 112,000
A rejection from resistance followed by confirmation of lower highs could initiate a strong bearish trend. Traders are advised to monitor price action closely for confirmation before entering short positions.
Note: Risk management is essential Always trade with a defined stop-loss
BTC Retracement Loading.....Bullish Bounce Ahead?Bitcoin is showing signs of a short-term pullback after tapping into a Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, triggering a potential short setup. Price is likely to retrace toward the bullish order block and retracement zone around 105,000–110,000. If that area holds, we could see a strong bounce back toward the 123,000 level.
BTC Reloading for Breakout — Watching for 1H MSS Flip
BTC has bounced from local support (green zone) and is challenging the descending trendline.
The price is now testing the red resistance zone and the upper boundary of the 1H MSS (market structure shift) box.
Scenario A (Bullish):
— If BTC cleanly breaks the trendline and flips the 1H MSS box into support (with a strong close above), this is a trigger for a scalp long.
— Target for the move is the upper green box/previous high area near $122,000.
Scenario B (Bearish/Invalidation):
— If price is rejected at the red resistance and falls back below the green support box, risk of deeper pullback toward $116,000 increases.
BTC has shown resilience by quickly reclaiming support after a sweep lower, indicating strong demand. The market looks to be reloading for another push, with liquidity building up just below resistance. The setup favors a breakout if NY Open brings momentum. The flip of the 1H MSS box would confirm bullish intent. However, caution if the breakout fails — structure remains choppy and a failed breakout can trap late buyers.
BTC will be 130 K USD? Potential target 130 000 USDAnalysis of the Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) chart on the MEXC platform indicates a positive upward trend. The price is currently hovering around $117,823, with clear support at approximately $100,000, as confirmed by the lower channel line. Moving averages (MA) suggest a sustained upward trend, and the trend line drawn from the lows points to potential for further growth. The current resistance is in the $120,000-$125,000 range, but if momentum holds and this level is breached, the price could head toward $130,000 in the short to medium term. It is recommended to monitor volume and key support and resistance levels to confirm further upward movement.
Potential TP: 130 000 $
Bitcoin’s Epic Run from 80K to 120K: What’s Next for BTC?Yo traders, it’s Skeptic from Skeptic Lab! 🩵 Diving into Bitcoin’s wild ride from 80K to 120K—breaking down the key supports, resistances, and what’s next for BTC.
From the $76k bounce to smashing $110K, we’re eyeing the $120K PRZ. Will it correct or keep soaring? Check the video for the full scoop! Drop your thoughts or coin requests in the comments, boost if it vibes & Let’s grow together!
BTC 4H Structure Break – Long Bias with Conditions🚀 BTC (Bitcoin) has clearly broken bullish market structure on the 4-hour timeframe.
📈 My bias is to ride the momentum and look for a pullback to enter long.
✅ I follow a specific entry criteria — price must pull back into the imbalance, find support, and then form a bullish break of structure on a 15m chart to trigger an entry.
❌ If that setup doesn't play out, we simply abandon the idea.
⚠️ This is not financial advice.
Shark harmonic pattern Absolutely, Amedeo! Here's a detailed and visually engaging breakdown of the **Shark Harmonic Pattern**, including its structure, trading styles, and how it connects Fibonacci ratios with Elliott Wave Theory:
---
### 🦈 What Is the Shark Harmonic Pattern?
- **Discovered by**: Scott Carney in 2011
- **Foundation**: Combines **Fibonacci ratios** with **Elliott Wave Theory**
- **Purpose**: Identifies potential **trend reversals** using precise geometric price structures
- **Structure**: Five points labeled **O, X, A, B, C** (not the usual XABCD)
- **Key Feature**: Relies heavily on the **88.6% Fibonacci retracement** and **113% extension**
---
### 📐 Pattern Geometry & Ratios
| Leg | Description | Fibonacci Ratio Range |
|------------|--------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------|
| XA | Initial impulse leg | No specific ratio |
| AB | Extension beyond X | 113% to 161.8% of XA |
| BC | Completion leg | 88.6% to 113% of OX |
| | | 161.8% to 224% of AB |
- **Point B** must **exceed point X**, forming an **Extreme Harmonic Impulse Wave**
- **Point C** is the **Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ)**
---
### 🛒 Buy Setup (Bullish Shark)
1. **No fixed retracement for A**
2. **B extends 113%–161.8% of XA**
3. **C completes at**:
- 88.6%–113% of OX
- 161.8%–224% of AB
📍 **Entry**: Near point C
📍 **Stop Loss**: Below point C
📍 **Target**: Retracement levels of BC (e.g., 50%, 61.8%), or back to point A/B
---
### 📉 Sell Setup (Bearish Shark)
1. **No fixed retracement for A**
2. **B extends 113%–161.8% of XA**
3. **C completes at**:
- 88.6%–113% of OX
- 161.8%–224% of AB
📍 **Entry**: Near point C
📍 **Stop Loss**: Above point C
📍 **Target**: Retracement levels of BC, or back to point A/B
---
### 📊 Real Trade Example & Educational Resources are in the comment
BTCUSD Long Trade BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Long Trade - this trade is basically based on Key Levels, prices are very intact as exactly shown.
This is good trade, don't overload your risk like greedy, be disciplined trader.
I manage trade on daily basis.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
Just Two Months Left: Navigating Bitcoin and Global ChangesGreetings to everyone reading these lines! Today, I want to share with you not just an analysis, but my personal reflections and feelings about the current situation in the financial and cryptocurrency markets, especially regarding Bitcoin.
Many of you already know that I have always been a firm believer in Bitcoin’s market cycles. Right now, we are approaching the final stage of another such cycle-the distribution phase. The past few months have seen considerable turmoil: Trump's election, escalating conflicts between India and Pakistan, Israel and Iran, rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and not to mention China’s increasingly assertive geopolitical moves. I can't shake the feeling that the world stands on the threshold of something significant, perhaps serious. I sincerely hope I'm mistaken, but signs of a global conflict or a substantial reset in the world order are undeniably in the air.
History shows us that after major upheavals and wars, the world undergoes profound changes. It seems we are nearing such a pivotal moment within the next couple of months. For a long time, I've highlighted September 2025 as a critical point in the current market cycle, and now everything confirms this scenario.
In these unstable times, participants in the financial markets face both risks and tremendous opportunities. The distinguishing factor today is the rapid integration of artificial intelligence into all areas of life. I firmly believe that if you don't begin incorporating AI into your activities now, you risk being left behind. Personally, I'm actively integrating artificial intelligence into my professional processes and everyday life, as I see it as inevitable in our near future.
Regarding the cryptocurrency market, I'll be frank: the past couple of years have significantly changed it and even somewhat disappointed me. Liquidity has become diluted, and the market has clearly become seasonal, with brief periods of explosive growth followed by long downturns. This has led me to return to trading Forex and gold, where the market is more transparent and predictable.
Many crypto projects that seemed promising in 2017 are now nearly forgotten and stagnating. Think of Dash, EOS, Litecoin, ZCash, and others-they haven't disappeared entirely, but they no longer play significant roles in the market. The battle for user attention has become overly aggressive, and competition has devolved into chasing short-lived hype. Nevertheless, there are exceptions, such as Solana—a project that achieved success thanks to a fortunate combination of factors. Yet such projects remain exceedingly rare.
Today, I see the most promising and powerful trend as the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA). It doesn’t matter so much which blockchain will be used-the concept itself has already proven effective. While this journey won't be easy, the involvement of giants like BlackRock indicates the trend is sustainable and promising in the long run.
Overall, I am confident that financial markets and digital currencies will continue to evolve and grow. However, in about two months, I plan to adopt a bearish stance. Unfortunately, there are few signs of a quick global economic recovery. The world needs significant restructuring and changes-new rules and agreements are inevitable, and the coming year promises many notable events.
Ask yourself: Are you ready for these changes? Are you prepared to adapt to new conditions, technologies, and realities? Personally, I'm fully ready, which is why I remain active in the market, continuing to share my thoughts, assist, and engage with each of you. If you have questions, ideas, or proposals for collaboration, I am always open to dialogue and eager for any interaction.
I sincerely thank each of you for your support, comments, and attention to my posts. I stay here because I believe in the enormous opportunities available even in the most uncertain times. We have an exciting journey ahead, and I invite you to travel it together with me.
Wishing you success, profits, and above all, peace and kindness on our planet. The time of change is already here. Let’s meet it together.
Warm regards,
Your EXCAVO.
[SeoVereign] BITCOIN BULLISH Outlook – July 24, 2025We are the SeoVereign Trading Team.
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Hello.
This is SeoVereign.
I am still holding the long position that I suggested in the idea posted on July 9th.
Regarding the upward trend that started around 107,200 USDT, I have consistently maintained my position without much doubt until just before posting this idea, as there were no clear signs indicating a decline.
However, at the time of writing this idea, some elements suggesting downward pressure are gradually being detected. Nevertheless, this idea is constructed around the upward scenario. The reason is that, as mentioned in this idea, a ‘single upward move’ is expected to occur with relatively high probability. Whether this rise leads to a trend reversal or serves as a precursor to a downturn will likely depend on how the chart unfolds.
The average TP (target price) is set around 119,300 USDT.
As always, I will carefully observe how the chart develops over time and will update with further explanations that organically integrate the detailed interpretations and grounds of this idea accordingly.
Thank you.