WEEKLY CHEAT SHEET a short description of this months expectations from the fundamental aspect of things
CADUSD trade ideas
USD Dollar Canadian Dollar AnalysisThe US dollar is gaining strength due to Trump tarrif polices but the strength will be short live. The downward movement might continue around 1.38404 with a stop loss of 1.38676 and take profit of 1.35287
Shorting opportunity on CADFor the safe SL & Higher probability wait for the retracement entry on 15m
Trade at your own risk
USDCAD Holds Rebound Above 1.36In parallel with the DXY’s rebound from the 96-level, USDCAD has bounced from its 1.35 support zone, coming off oversold conditions last seen in 2021. The pair is also respecting a breakout from the 2025 contracting downtrend pattern.
Key upside levels for the ongoing correction are 1.3830, 1.3860, and 1.40 — aligning with a significant support/resistance zone established in October 2022. However, if 1.36 and 1.3520 are breached to the downside, the bearish trend could resume, with downside levels at 1.34 and 1.32 in focus.
- Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USDCAD: Bearish Continuation & Short Signal
USDCAD
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short USDCAD
Entry Point - 1.3688
Stop Loss - 1.3717
Take Profit - 1.3634
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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US Dollar Strengthens Following Trump’s Tariff DecisionUS Dollar Strengthens Following Trump’s Tariff Decision
US President Donald Trump has announced his decision to impose new tariffs:
→ For Canada, tariffs are set at 35%. They are scheduled to take effect on 1 August, although negotiations may take place before this date, potentially influencing Trump’s final stance.
→ For many other countries, tariffs may be set at 15% or 20%;
→ For the European Union, the exact tariff levels have not yet been disclosed.
Overall, Trump’s latest comments have added to the uncertainty surrounding the specific tariffs to be applied to each country. The financial markets reacted as follows:
→ The US dollar strengthened against other currencies (including the Canadian dollar);
→ Equity markets saw a modest decline.
Technical Analysis of the USD/CAD Chart
As soon as the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports to the US was made public, the USD/CAD rate spiked sharply (as indicated by the arrow), reaching levels last seen at the end of June. In the hours that followed, the pair stabilised.
Taking a broader view, the chart appears to show a triangular formation, which consists of:
→ A descending resistance line (R);
→ A key support level (S) around 1.3570.
From this perspective, it is worth noting that the bulls’ attempt to break above the resistance line amid the 35% tariff news did not succeed, indicating strong selling pressure.
At the same time, the price action of USD/CAD in early July allows us to identify a local support level (marked by the blue line). This suggests that, for now, the pair is consolidating within a formation bounded by the blue support line and resistance line R.
However, how long this consolidation will last, and which direction the breakout will take, will most likely depend on the next round of news regarding US–Canada trade negotiations.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
USDCADThis is a technical scenario, not a guaranteed prediction. The zone is becoming a key area of interest. No confirmation, no trade.
If confirmed breakout and retest occur, I’ll look to trade in alignment with the new structure.
USDCAD IS BULLISHAll i see is a change to the upside that will act as an exhaustion phase then when it mitigitates the supply zone the bearish signals might be formed.
I will see how it goes ...
HappY TrAdINg
USDCAD – July 10 OutlookUSDCAD’s high-risk, high-reward (HRHR) sells from Wednesday are still in play with price currently up 35 pips. Price action remains within the structure as we continue to respect the March trendline, but are now stalling in a tight 4H range.
📍 Key Observations:
1.36647 is acting as strong intraday support
Possible retest of yesterday’s or Wednesday’s high could provide another HRHR sell opportunity
Break below 1.36527 could open the door for a clean 70-pip move toward 1.35827
🔔 Summary: Patience is essential—watching for either another short-term rejection at resistance or a clean structural break to continue the broader bearish bias.
USDCAD obeying Elliott Wave Principles.Our D1 chart is a continuation of a wave that started earlier and had a Flat correction for its Wave 2(Red), hence a Zigzag should be expected for our Wave 4(Red). When Wave 3(Red) completes, an aggressive selling move is triggered this is our Wave A(Black). A correction of this move occurs in the form of a Flat and this is now our Wave B(Black) of the major Zigzag correction that started when Wave 3(Red) completed. When Wave B(Black) is done, we should expect a Wave C(Black) to complete the Zigzag. Our Wave C(Black) unfolds in a 5 wave move and this is very normal. This 5 wave move is marked in Green. When Wave 1(Green) completes, our Wave 2(Green) unfolds in a Flat correction, meaning our Wave 4(Green) should be a Zigzag correction. After Wave 2(Green) completes, Wave 3(Green) is a strong downward move that reaches the 261.8% Fib. level. On reaching this level, we see a retest and a confirmation occurring. This is is to signal the end of Wave 3(Green) and the start of Wave 4(Green). As mentioned earlier, we should expect a Zigzag correction for Wave (Green) and we can see a shallow pullback and retest. The pullback is our first wave of the three wave Zigzag and is marked as Wave A(Blue). The retest as noted, does not go beyond Wave 3(Green) and this confirms it is a Zigzag. This retest is marked as Wave B(Blue). Next would be a Wave C(Blue) to complete Wave 4(Green). A retest and confirmation gives us an entry for the Wave C(Blue) which is also Wave 4(Green).
UPDATE - PRICE HAS MITIGATED OUR DEMAND IDEAL FOR LONGSPreviously we were waiting for that retracement or pullback to Weekly Demand ideal for long buys
Now anticipating a trend change - Use H4 for confirmation then we can buy this to the moon.
I will drop the confirmation once confirmed
USD/CAD carving out a bottom?The USD/CAD is poking its head above a bearish trend line that has been in place since mid-May, in one of the first signs that suggests we may have seen a low in the Loonie. As well as the trend line, the 21-day exponential is also now below price, further suggesting that the tide is turning.
Key levels
Support levels off this daily chart are seen around 1.3695 then 1.3617
Resistance seen around 1.3750 next, followed by the next round handles like 1.38, 1.39 etc.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
The importance of trendlines in FOREXIn the world of currencies or FOREX, there are certain entry points that only happen a few times a year , but they’re incredibly powerful . These opportunities come after a trend breaks, a trend that has been touched and confirmed as a support or resistance zone over several years.
Right now, with OANDA:USDCAD , we’re seeing a break and pullback to one of these long-term trends. That makes this a great moment to go short on this pair.
Let me share a couple of examples with USDBRL and USDMXN. In both cases, after similar long-term trends were broken, the price moved strongly in one direction, these are the kinds of moves that can really grow your account.
There are other pairs showing similar breakouts.
Have you spotted them? If not, leave a comment and I’ll share the other pairs with you!
USDCAD oversold rally The USDCAD currency pair remains in a bearish technical structure, consistent with the prevailing downtrend. Recent price action suggests sideways consolidation, indicating indecision as the pair pauses before its next directional move.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance:
1.3700 – Key pivot zone; previously acted as intraday resistance.
1.3740 – Minor resistance.
1.3790 – Stronger resistance zone and potential reversal point.
Support:
1.3566 – Initial downside target on renewed selling pressure.
1.3544 – Intermediate support.
1.3520 – Long-term support and potential demand zone.
Scenario Analysis:
Bearish Case (Favored):
Price is consolidating below the key 1.3700 level. A failure to break above this resistance could trigger a renewed move lower. A bearish rejection from this level may open the path toward 1.3566, then 1.3544 and 1.3520 over a longer timeframe.
Bullish Case (Alternative):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 1.3700 would invalidate the current bearish setup. This could shift sentiment to bullish and trigger a move toward the next resistance zones at 1.3740 and 1.3790.
Conclusion:
The technical bias for USDCAD remains bearish while price trades below the 1.3700 resistance zone. Traders should watch for a rejection from this level to confirm further downside potential. However, a sustained break above 1.3700 would neutralize the bearish setup and suggest scope for a short-term bullish reversal.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Usdcad LongMe and my team caught the buy. Purely smc strategy… inducement, liquidity and oderblock for market execution
Why I’m Bullish on USD/CAD This Week | Forex Market OutlookIn this video, I break down a potential bullish setup on USD/CAD based purely on technical analysis using support and resistance zones on the 4H and Daily timeframes.
Key Highlights:
Strong price bounce off major support zone
Former resistance flipping into support
Bullish market structure with higher lows forming
My price target: 1.37400
Invalidation zone: 1.35334
A Return to 1:1?As spending heats up considerably with the 5 Trillion USD bill, in my opinion it looks like CAD is set to skyrocket vs the USD once again.
The main driving factors include greater industrialization (worlds biggest nuclear plant, more gold/platinum production than the USA, bigger oil reserves than USA), comparatively less spending, less tariffs, expanding to other countries via exports, and the most untapped resources/land with lowest population of any developed nation in the world.
Personally, for the next 10 years I'll be heavily focusing on Canadian companies if the CAD breaks the trend line
USDCAD My Opinion! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for USDCAD below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 1.3669
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 1.3621
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
USDCAD AnalysisPrice broke the descending trendline and is forming a base above the 1.36422 support zone. This may signal a bullish continuation targeting 1.36828 and 1.37093.
⚠️ Invalidation: Break below 1.36215 cancels the idea.
This is a market idea, not a signal.
USDCAD Bullish RallyGet ready to buy USDCAD. Falling channel breakout and retest. Price should escalate after breaking below 1,36312. Aiming for 1,37 and 1,1376
