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CHFJPY trade ideas

CHFJPY Looks Toppy… Is a 500 Pip Crash Coming?CHFJPY Has Exploded Past 180 — But Is the Top Already In? After blowing clean through the key 180 resistance level, CHFJPY has continued surging into July — a month historically known for thin liquidity as traders hit holiday mode. These low-volume environments often lead to exaggerated price moves, much like we see in late December. From a structural standpoint, this pair looks seriously overextended and ripe for a sharp pullback — with potential downside targets around 180 and 178 over the coming weeks. If I were a bull, I’d want to see a clear break and weekly/monthly close above 186 before considering further upside. As it stands, I’m gradually building into a short position, eyeing that 180 handle as my first key level. Let me know your thoughts in the comments — agree, disagree, or seeing something I’m not? *This is my personal analysis shared for educational purposes only. Always do your own research — never blindly follow anyone’s trades.*
Short
by TheFxAce
9
CHFJPY: The Logic Behind the Inevitable CorrectionCHFJPY recently bounced from what seemed like a perfect support level. Many likely saw this as a buy signal. But when the price failed to make a new high, it sent a clear warning: the correction isn't over yet. This analysis dives into why that first bounce was a trap and where the next institutional levels are waiting below—the ones with the real fuel for the next major move up. The CHFJPY pair continues its long and strong global uptrend . However, the market cannot move in one direction indefinitely without pullbacks; sooner or later, corrections occur. Large capital, or "Whales," who are the most important market participants, need to refuel with liquidity to continue their advance and to shake off piggybacking competitors. Right now, CHFJPY is in a 4H structure correction . The first target for this correction was the 61.8% Fib level and a daily order block. The price did show a reversal reaction from them, but it lacked enough liquidity to create a new ATH, and the price continued its corrective movement. The next target for the correction will be the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at ~183.909, in conjunction with a 4H order block . This move will also sweep liquidity from the low of July 16th. Two Potential Long Scenarios SCENARIO 1: Entry from the 78.6% Fib Level & 4H Order Block The first long entry scenario will be triggered by a clear reversal reaction from this support confluence. ► Setup Condition: Price must reach this zone, mitigate the order block, and close decisively above the 78.6% level, showing strength. An entry will require LTF confirmation (a BOS or the beginning of LTF order flow). ► Invalidation: If the 78.6% level is broken and the price closes below it, this scenario is invalid. In this case, the 4H order block itself will act as liquidity, and an attack on the 4H structure's break level (BOS 4) will likely occur. SCENARIO 2: Entry After a Deeper Liquidity Sweep This path becomes active if the first scenario fails. ► Setup Condition: A liquidity sweep with a candle wick below the 4H BOS level (183.333), with the price then closing back above this level. The final confirmation would be the start of a new order flow on a lower timeframe. ► Invalidation: A decisive close below the 4H BOS level will invalidate all long scenarios and will signal that the correction is shifting to a higher timeframe structure. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The principles and conditions for forming the manipulation zones I show in this trade idea are detailed in my educational publication, which was chosen by TradingView for the "Editor's Picks" category and received a huge amount of positive feedback from this wonderful, advanced TV community. To better understand the logic I've used here and the general principles of price movement in most markets from the perspective of institutional capital, I highly recommend checking out this guide if you haven't already. 👇 P.S. This is not a prediction of the exact price direction. It is a description of high-probability setups that become valid only if specific conditions are met when the price reaches the marked POI. If the conditions are not met, the setups are invalid. No setup has a 100% success rate, so if you decide to use this trade idea, always use a stop-loss and proper risk management. Trade smart. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ If you found this analysis helpful, support it with a Boost! 🚀 Have a question or your own view on this idea? Share it in the comments. 💬 ► Follow me on TradingView to get real-time updates on THIS idea (entry, targets & live trade management) and not to miss my next detailed breakdown. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Long
by TheWhaleSM
3
CHFJPY - The Bulls Are Exhausted!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈CHFJPY has been overall bullish trading within the rising channel marked in blue and it is currently retesting the upper bound of it. Moreover, the green zone is a strong supply. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the upper blue trendline and green supply. 📚 As per my trading style: As #CHFJPY is hovering around the red circle zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by TheSignalyst
3
CHFJPY SELL TRADE PLAN🔥 CHFJPY TRADE PLAN 🔥 📅 Date: 22 July 2025 📋 Trade Plan Overview Type Direction Confidence R:R Status Swing Sell ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (82%) 4.0:1 Awaiting Confirmation Guidance: Focus on Scenario A Primary Plan – high confluence bearish rejection zone after extended bullish run. Scenario B remains tactical, lower probability unless impulsive breakdown. Total risk: 1.2% (standard swing). Primary Trade Plan: Swing Sell 📈 Market Bias & Trade Type Bias: Bearish Trade Type: Reversal - Post-Parabolic Exhaustion 🔰 Confidence Level ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (82%) Reason: D1 parabolic exhaustion + rejection wicks. H4 strong bearish engulfing. H1 impulsive breakdown from 185.40 zone. Volume spike on H1 selling. Fib 61.8% rejection. Sentiment stretched overbought JPY weakness. Breakdown: Price Structure: 30% Candlestick Patterns: 20% Volume / Fib / RSI: 22% Macro / Sentiment: 10% 📌 Status Awaiting Confirmation 📍 Entry Zones 🟥 Primary Sell Zone: 184.45 – 184.75 (H4 bearish order block + imbalance + prior rejection) 👉 Status: Waiting for rejection wick / bearish engulfing / LTF breakdown. 🟧 Secondary Sell Zone: 185.20 – 185.45 (H4 final supply zone; riskier short). ❗ Stop Loss 185.65 (above secondary zone wick + structure + 1.2x ATR). 🎯 Take Profit Targets 🥇 TP1: 183.10 (H1 imbalance fill; 125 pips; ~2.0:1 R:R) 🥈 TP2: 182.20 (liquidity pool, structure target; 210 pips; ~3.5:1 R:R) 🥉 TP3: 180.90 (deeper swing pullback; H4 demand zone; ~4.8:1 R:R) – Optional trail. 📏 Risk:Reward TP1: 2.0:1 TP2: 3.5:1 TP3: 4.8:1 🧠 Management Strategy Risk 1.2% of $ ($ , lots). Move SL to breakeven after TP1 hit. Close 60% at TP1, 30% at TP2, leave 10% runner for TP3 (trail SL). If impulsive bullish reclaim above 185.00, exit manually. Portfolio Risk capped at 3% max open trades. ⚠️ Confirmation Checklist H1 bearish engulfing OR rejection wick in primary zone. H1/H4 volume spike during London or NY session. RSI divergence (optional). No major JPY risk events upcoming. ⏳ Validity H4 Swing: Valid for 2–4 days (expires 26 July 2025). ❌ Invalidation 4H candle close above 185.65 Bullish BOS on H1 beyond secondary zone. 🌐 Fundamental & Sentiment Snapshot COT: CHF neutral / JPY oversold. DXY: Rangebound. Retail: 77% buyers CHFJPY (contrarian bearish bias). Cross-Pair: EURJPY and AUDJPY showing topping signs. Cross-Market: Risk sentiment fragile (SP500 fading). Macro: No major CHF/JPY news. Sentiment Score: +7/10 bearish CHFJPY. 📋 Final Trade Summary Sell CHFJPY targeting reversal after extended bullish run. Focus is on rejection from 184.45–184.75 with strict SL above 185.65. Patience mandatory for confirmation candlesticks. Aggressive scaling only if H1 breaks down from current price.
Short
by jibkhan111
2
CHF/JPY Creating Double Top Reversal Pattern , Ready To Sell ?Here is my opinion on CHF/JPY 4H Chart , if we take a look we will see that the price moved tp upside very hard without any correction and now finally we have a reversal pattern but still not confirmed , so we have 2 places to sell this pair , first one is highest one around 185.800 To 186.000 and the second one if the price confirmed the pattern and closed below the neckline then we can enter a sell trade and targeting the nearest support . if we have not a closure below the neckline to confirm the pattern then this setup not valid .
Short
by FX_Elite_Club
CHFJPY: It's getting the value of a toilet paperCHFJPY: It's getting the value of a toilet paper The all-time high for CHFJPY was reached on July 10, 2024 and has been moving lower ever since. However, over the past month for no apparent reason, CHFJPY broke above the top of this area, reaching a new all-time high for the time being at 186, pushing the price up by almost +600 pips above the previous high. The only reason is that the SNB continues to manipulate the Forex market by keeping the CHF stronger for no reason. The big trade has to fall and it will fall one day, but it definitely won’t fall unless the SNB stops this crazy manipulation. All eyes are on the SNB to change its monetary policy approach and also on the BOJ to stop manipulating the yen’s weakness because they want to increase their exports. So both banks are playing a dirty game and it is unclear when the downtrend might start, but even the bullish move is highly overvalued. It is very dangerous both ways. However, the big trade must fall as it is becoming like toilet paper. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
Short
by KlejdiCuni
6
CHF/JPY Reversal brewing?Is the high-flying CHF/JPY cross about to hit an air pocket? Having printed a bearish engulfing candle on Wednesday, and with bearish divergence between RSI (14) and price while still in overbought territory, the risk of a pullback appears to be growing. MACD is also curling over towards the signal line, hinting that bullish momentum is waning. Should the price break and hold beneath 184.50, shorts could be established with a tight stop above the level for protection. 183.39 screens as an initial target, coinciding with the low struck on July 11. If it gives way, it could open the door to a deeper unwind towards 181.85, a level that acted as both support and resistance in recent months. If the price resumes its uptrend and takes out the current record high above 186.00, it would invalidate the near-term bearish bias. Good luck! DS
Short
by FOREXcom
"Master Plan to Rob CHF/JPY – Breakout Trading Idea"💣CHF/JPY Forex Heist: Swiss vs Yen 🔥Master Robbery Plan Unfolded! 🌟Hi! Hola! Ola! Bonjour! Hallo! Marhaba!🌟 Dear Money Makers, Bandits & Chart Pirates 🤑💰💸✈️ It's time to reload your gear and lock in the blueprint. Based on our 🔥Thief Trader Technical + Fundamental Intelligence🔥, we’re all set to ambush the CHF/JPY "Swiss vs Yen" battlefield. This ain’t no casual walk—it’s a full-scale market operation targeting the High Voltage Reversal Trap Zone⚡. The pressure is real: Overbought, Tricky Consolidation, and Bears camping at resistance. Your job? Steal profits before they smell the breakout! 🏆💪💵 🎯 Entry Point — "Let the Heist Begin" 🗝 Entry Level: Wait for the Breakout @ 186.000. When price shatters the Moving Average ceiling—that's your greenlight! 🚀 Execution Choices: Place Buy Stop above the breakout point Or, use Buy Limit Orders near recent swing highs/lows on the 15/30-min chart using Layering/DCA tactics (that’s how the real thieves sneak in 🕶️). 🔔 Set an alert to stay sharp—don’t miss the vault crackin’ open! 🛑 Stop Loss — “Cover Your Escape” 🎯 SL Level: Just under the recent swing low on the 4H timeframe (around 184.000) 🚫 Never place the SL before the breakout confirms! Let the move prove itself first. 🧠 SL sizing depends on your capital, lot size, and number of entries stacked. You control the risk, not the other way around! 🎯 Target — "Cash Out or Vanish" 💎 First Take-Profit: 189.000 🚪Optional Escape: Secure the bag early if momentum fades. Better leave rich than be late! 👀 For Scalpers & Swing Robbers Alike 🔍 Scalpers: Only ride the Long wave. 💼 Big pockets? Hit straight entry. 👟 Small capital? Tag in with swing trades and trail that SL like a pro. 🎣 Use a Trailing SL to lock profits as price sprints toward resistance. 📰 The Bigger Picture: Why CHF/JPY? The pair is pumped by: 📈 Macro Economics 📊 Quant Analysis 📰 COT Reports 📉 Intermarket Correlations 🧠 Sentiment Heatmaps 🔥 Future Price Dynamics Don’t pull the trigger blind. Read the battlefield before charging in. ⚠️ Thief’s Caution Zone: News Traps Ahead 🛎 News = chaos. 📌 Avoid entering fresh trades during major data drops. 🔐 Use Trailing SLs to protect ongoing plays. 📉 Let the market dance, but you control the music. 💥Hit the Boost Button!💥 If this heist plan pumps your portfolio, smash that boost. That’s how we fund more blueprints, fuel the Thief Gang’s vault, and keep the robbery cycle alive. 🤑💵 Together, let’s rob this market clean—Thief Style. New plan drops soon. Stay locked. Stay sharp. Stay profitable. 🧠💰🏴‍☠️ — Thief Trader Out 🐱‍👤🔓🚀
Long
by The-Thief
CHFJPY BUYJust an idea for short term target with SL and TP. Timeframe: H1 Price: 185.031 SL: 184.485 TP: 186.669 SL will move to breakeven at 1:1 Close 50% at 1:2 Remaining will run till 1:3 Risk Disclaimer: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.
Long
by shakeels07
CHF/JPY: Poised for a Short-Term CorrectionThe CHF/JPY pair has experienced an impressive and sustained bullish run, gaining approximately 1000 pips in under two months. Such rapid and significant upward movements often lead to a healthy market correction as buyers exhaust their momentum and profit-taking ensues. Based on this strong bullish run, and likely factoring in overbought conditions that often follow such moves, the pair appears ready for a short-term correction. The level of 180.000 stands out as a critical psychological and technical target for this potential pullback. Considering the exhaustion of the recent rally, a short-term sell trade targeting 180.000 appears to be a viable strategy. My sell trade is currently on 10 pips gain and its not too late to join the rally. Stay safe!
Short
by Integrity_GoldFX
CHF/JPY BEST PLACE TO SELL FROM|SHORT Hello, Friends! CHF/JPY pair is in the uptrend because previous week’s candle is green, while the price is evidently rising on the 2H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 184.005 because the pair overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. ✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Short
by EliteTradingSignals
1