US 100 – All Eyes on Tariffs, Trade Deals and Tech EarningsRenewed demand for US assets has been evident throughout July so far and this has helped to lift the US 100 index to new heights with gains of over 2.5% across the month. The technology heavy index has risen from opening levels around 22650 on July 1st, then recorded several all time highs, before eventually finding some selling interest after printing the most recent record peak at 23282 yesterday afternoon.
This upside has been supported by fresh trader hopes of interest rate cuts, after Federal Reserve (Fed) policymaker Waller suggested last Thursday that he would consider a 25bps (0.25%) reduction at their next meeting on July 30th, despite Fed Chairman Powell maintaining the view that the US central bank are currently pursuing a wait and see approach, as they look for more information on inflation and growth trends to assist them to determine the on-going impact of tariffs.
Part of the reason for the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates has also been the resilience of US economic data. With US consumers still spending and employment yet to feel the negative impact of President Trump’s tariff policies, leading to a potential positive knock-on impact for growth and corporate earnings, when considered against prior downbeat market expectations.
This all leads nicely onto what could be a key sentiment driver for the direction of the US 100 this week, the start of earnings updates from the ‘Magnificent Seven’ tech companies, two of which, Alphabet and Tesla, report their earnings after the market close tomorrow. These are then followed by Microsoft and Meta on Wednesday July 30th, then Amazon and Apple on Thursday July 31st.
Traders will be keen to judge actual earnings against market expectations, alongside updates on AI spending and investment, forward guidance on the impact of tariffs and more specifically for Tesla, the time Elon Musk may dedicate to the company, rather than the distractions of politics.
The technical outlook could also be important.
Technical Update: Can The Positive Trend Extend Further?
There appears to be no clear-cut signs of a negative sentiment shift in the US 100 index yet, as fresh buying has continued to develop above support provided by the rising daily Bollinger mid-average, currently at 22785 (see chart below).
Of course, there is no guarantee this positive pattern of higher price highs and higher price lows will continue, especially given the on-going trade discussion between the US and its allies, as well as the earnings announcements from Alphabet and Tesla.
However, it can be useful for traders to prepare for any future volatility by assessing potential support and resistance levels that could impact the direction of the US 100 moving forward.
Potential Support Levels:
It is possible the rising Bollinger mid-average, currently at 22785, represents a first support focus for traders, and as such, closing breaks below this level might lead to a more extended phase of price weakness.
Such moves could see a deeper sell-off towards 22533, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of June 23rd to July 18th 2025 price strength.
Potential Resistance Levels:
With fresh price strength emerging with the US 100 index above the rising Bollinger mid-average, a positive price pattern of higher highs and higher lows, may still be evident. This reflects buyers are currently willing to pay higher prices, each time a setback materialises.
However, to maintain this uptrend pattern in price, the focus could now be on resistance provided by the July high at 23282 (July 21st). Closing breaks above this level might be required to suggest further strength, towards the next potential resistance level at 24084, which is the weekly Bollinger upper band, even 24482, which is equal to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension.
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