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USDX trade ideas

Dollar holds steady uptrend despite Trump’s tariff threats. President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from both the EU and Mexico, a hike from the 20% previously imposed on the EU in April. He also warned that if no agreement is reached on the Ukraine war within 50 days, countries trading with Russia could face a 100% tariff. Meanwhile, market volatility is being amplified by speculation over Fed Chair Powell’s potential dismissal, as attacks against him intensify from Trump and his allies. Deutsche Bank warned that Powell’s removal could trigger sharp swings in both the dollar and bond markets. DXY has extended its two-week rally after testing the recent low, approaching the 98.00 threshold. The index remains within the ascending channel, indicating the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.25, the index could gain upward momentum toward 98.60. Conversely, if DXY breaks below the support at 97.60, the index may retreat to 97.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
deepseek→→U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlookchina deepseek↓↓ ### **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlook** #### **1. Current Market Trends and Driving Factors** - **Trade Policies Boost the Dollar**: U.S. President Trump recently announced new tariffs on Canada (35%), the EU, and Mexico (30%), triggering risk-off sentiment and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) from 97.20 to around 98.00. - **CPI Data as a Key Variable**: The U.S. June CPI data, released today (July 15), will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce the dollar's rally, while weak data may weaken it. - **Shift in Market Sentiment**: Unlike the "dollar sell-off" trend in early 2025, recent market reactions have leaned toward treating the dollar as a "safe-haven asset" rather than selling it solely due to trade war concerns. #### **2. Technical Analysis** - **Key Resistance and Support Levels**: - **Resistance**: 97.80-98.00 (short-term critical range). A breakout could test 98.50 or even 99.00. - **Support**: 97.50 (50-day moving average). A drop below may target 96.38 (June low). - **Technical Indicators**: - **MACD**: A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, but it remains below the zero line, suggesting the current rebound may still be corrective. - **RSI**: Near the 50 neutral zone, not yet overbought, indicating room for further upside. #### **3. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook** - **Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)**: - **Bullish Scenario**: If CPI data is strong and DXY breaks above 98.20, it could challenge 98.50-99.00. - **Bearish Scenario**: Weak CPI data or progress in trade talks may push DXY back to 97.30-96.50. - **Long-Term (Second Half of 2025)**: - **Structural Pressures Remain**: Despite the short-term rebound, the dollar still faces long-term challenges, including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and concerns over Fed independence. - **Historical Trend**: After falling over 10% in the first half of 2025, DXY may continue its downtrend in the second half, though the pace of decline could slow. #### **4. Key Risk Factors** - **Fed Policy**: If CPI data reinforces a "higher-for-longer" rate outlook, the dollar may strengthen further. Conversely, rising rate-cut expectations could weigh on the dollar. - **Geopolitics and Trade Talks**: Compromises from the EU or Mexico could reduce safe-haven demand, while failed negotiations may fuel further dollar gains due to risk aversion. ### **Conclusion** The DXY is at a critical juncture, with short-term direction hinging on CPI data and trade policy developments. Technicals lean bullish, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging. Traders should closely monitor the 98.00 breakout and today’s CPI data impact.
TICKMILL:DXYShort
by trade1638
DXY Previous weeks analysis and July 13 week ahead ideasDXY July 13 July 7 to 11 DELIVERY NOTES I suspected that price would gravitate for higher prices in last Sundays analysis, celebrate on *up closed candle on the weekly, rebalancing SIBI from June 23 week *Price retraced to close on equilibrium on the current range *Monday delivered an expansion *Tuesday retraced to Monday CE of the daily candle *Wednesday consolidation *Thursday retraced to a discount then reversed to take Mondays buy stops *Friday expansion to make the high of the week closing on the CE of the FVG from Wed June 25 July 14 to 18 Ideas Bear bias *Since July 2 Price has been seeking higher prices, further example of trending market *Price reaching equilibrium on the HTF range and buy side taken last week *I suspect that price will retrace for sell side liquidity this week *I anticipate for Price to gravitate towards the EV at 97.430 for the low target this week, possibly the noted equal lows from Monday July 7 *Friday's delivery was a in consolidation pattern *Sundays delivery could gravitate to the noted equal highs and noted FVG *I suspect that Price will expand to seek lower Prices for Mondays delivery *Price expand higher in Sundays delivery, we could see Price retrace Fridays in FVG No News Monday and Friday
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY Indecisive DXY remains locked in its previous week's range, especially locked in Wednesday's range. The Thursday rally above Wednesday's high appears to be a fake breakout aimed at trapping traders long. With stops seemingly below Wednesday (Previous Week Low), how we trade past the previous week high or/and low should inform the unfolding direction. With a run to the previous week's low and high possible, caution is recommended. Await expansion avoid the surge of new's release in the coming week and the choppiness that could unfold.
TVC:DXY
by CashMereFx
DXY 4Hour TF - July 13th, 2025DXY 7/13/2025 DXY 4hour Neutral Idea Monthly - Bearish Weekly - Bearish Dailly - Bearish 4hour - Ranging Keep in mind, we analyze and follow DXY more so as an indicator. The USD makes up for a large portion of trade so it makes sense to analyze it. Going into this week we can see DXY made an attempt to push higher. Where it closed on Friday is a major zone around 98.000. We’re still majorly bearish on higher time frames so we will keep that in mind throughout this week. As always, we will mark up two potential paths for this week, they are as follows: Bullish Breakout - The two main zones we want to bring out attention to are 98.000 resistance and 97.500 support. We will have to wait until price action leaves this area to spot a high quality setup. Look for a convincing push above 98.000 resistance followed by a retest of 98.000 but as support. Look for a higher low to form with bullish confirmation to long on. Bearish Continuation- Going bearish is still very possible we just need to clear 97.500 support first. Look for a break below 97.500 with a confirmed lower high and convincing bearish setups to short on.
TVC:DXY
by ForexLeague
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals: The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967. Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA). Fundamentals: The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays. A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations. Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs. Current narrative: The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency. Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mr_Anonymous_Investor
1
Bullish bounce off major support?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 97.14 1st Support: 96.74 1st Resistance: 98.08 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
DXY strengthens but can it break THIS key level?The US dollar has gained ground this week, with the Dollar Index rising to retest the previously broken April low near the 97.92 level—an important technical zone. The short-term bias would flip to being bullish if this area breaks. The greenback’s strength has been underpinned in part by unexpectedly strong economic data. For instance, Thursday’s weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000, below the forecast of 235,000. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading in seven weeks, reinforcing the view that the US labour market remains tighter than anticipated. Adding to this backdrop are President Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and expansive fiscal plans—described as “big, beautiful” spending and tax initiatives. These factors increase the risk of more persistent inflation. While the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to initiate rate cuts in September, the rising inflationary pressures could slow the pace of easing thereafter. This shift would likely provide support for the dollar so long as investors don't lose trust in US monetary policy. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
TVC:DXYLong
by FOREXcom
Could the price reverse from here?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 97.90 1st Support: 96.74 1st Resistance: 98.67 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets