Ethereum season is here for a yearWho's leading the crypto market right now?
- Coinbase, Base, and Farcaster
Let me ask you a question. Will base launch its own token? No.
USDC on Base is their main token, and they are happy with it.
What people don't see yet is, base is base.eth.
Also, ETH hit its all time low dominance, and bouncing back up.
Ethereum foundation laid off many people, and going through hard reform.
I think Ethereum market dominance will hit 14% within a year.
That would be about 1ETH = $10,000.
Let's come back in a year.
ETH.D trade ideas
The Perfect Storm: Ethereum Dominance Data Confirms Bullish In my previous analysis, "The Perfect Storm," I laid out a multi-faceted technical case for Ethereum's continued bullish momentum through the end of 2025, targeting the $4,500-$5,200 range. While the price action itself provides a compelling roadmap, a deeper look into Ethereum's market dominance (ETH.D) offers the final, powerful confirmation we've been looking for.
The ETH.D chart, which measures Ethereum's percentage of the total crypto market cap, is often the "tell" that reveals where institutional capital and market momentum are truly flowing. What it's showing now is not just bullish—it's the bedrock upon which the next major leg up will be built.
The Macro Shift: Ethereum is Reclaiming Leadership
Looking at the long-term trend, it's clear that a fundamental shift is underway. After a prolonged period of consolidation, ETH.D has established a clear and sustained uptrend since mid-2024. This pattern of higher lows and higher highs signifies that capital is rotating back into Ethereum, cementing its role as the market's preferred smart contract layer. This isn't just a price rally; it's a fight for market share that Ethereum is winning.
The "May Spring": Dominance Confirms the Wyckoff Accumulation
I previously identified the May 2025 price low as a classic Wyckoff "Spring"—an event designed to flush out weak hands before a major markup. The ETH.D chart provides a stunning confirmation of this thesis.
In late May, we saw dominance take a sharp dip to a low of 9.22%, perfectly mirroring the price action. This was the final shakeout. The subsequent powerful rally in dominance through June and into July, reclaiming the 11% level, was a textbook "Sign of Strength" (SOS). This shows that the recovery wasn't just a market-wide bounce; it was driven by a disproportionate flow of capital into Ethereum.
We are now consolidating above this breakout level, forming what appears to be the "Last Point of Support" (LPS) before the next major expansion.
RSI Analysis: The Hidden Fuel in the Tank
While the daily price RSI is showing strong momentum around the 72-73 level, the RSI for ETH.D tells an even more bullish story. Currently hovering in the healthy 50-60 range, the dominance RSI is far from overbought.
This is the perfect "Goldilocks" scenario. It confirms that the trend of Ethereum outperforming the broader market is strong and established, yet it has significant room to run before becoming overheated. This underlying relative strength is the hidden fuel that can and will support the price rally toward our higher targets.
The Confluence That Cannot Be Ignored
What makes this outlook so compelling is the rare confluence of multiple, independent technical frameworks all pointing to the same conclusion.
Price Action: Shows a clear bullish structure.
Wyckoff Methodology: Confirms we are in the final stages of a re-accumulation pattern.
Ethereum Dominance: Provides undeniable evidence of capital rotation and market leadership.
RSI (Price vs. Dominance): Shows a perfect blend of high price momentum and healthy, sustainable relative strength.
When these signals align, the probability of the projected outcome increases exponentially. The technical roadmap is clear: The foundation has been set, the smart money has made its move, and the underlying relative strength is confirming the thesis. Ethereum is poised for a significant appreciation through the remainder of 2025, with the ETH.D trend providing the tailwind needed to reach our targets in the $4,500-$5,200 range.
ETH.D (Ethereum Dominance) Weekly TF 2025
Summary:
Ethereum Dominance (ETH.D) has likely bottomed after retracing to its 78.6% Fibonacci level (~6.59%) and is showing early signs of a structural reversal. With institutional inflows, growing staking adoption, and key upcoming Ethereum upgrades, ETH.D may reclaim significant market dominance over the next 12–18 months. Our chart anticipates a bounce-pullback-rebound structure, aiming for 3 target zones: TP1 (23.5%), TP2 (30.8%), and TP3 (39%).
Contextual Market Alignment:
This ETH.D bullish bias aligns strongly with our broader market outlook:
TOTAL Market Cap Analysis → Bullish breakout structure, indicating overall crypto expansion.
TOTAL2 (Altcoin Market Cap Ex-BTC) → Bullish retracement completion and extension targets active.
BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance) → Bearish confluence zone, suggesting Bitcoin may underperform versus ETH and altcoins, freeing up dominance space for ETH.D to rise.
Chart Context:
This weekly ETH.D chart uses a Fibonacci retracement from the top (~30.81%) to bottom (0%) to identify potential reversal zones. The dominance hit a key support area at the 78.6% Fib retracement (6.59%), showing a reaction that may develop into a reversal. The roadmap includes:
Rebound toward TP1 (23.54% = 23.5%)
Minor correction or consolidation
Breakout continuation toward TP2 (0.0% = 30.8%)
Extension leg targeting TP3 (–27% = 39%)
Key Technical Observations:
Support Levels:
78.60% = 6.59% (bottom support)
88.60%=3.5%
Possible Resistances:
61.80% = 11.77%
48.60% = 15.84%
38.20% = 19.04%
Resistance & TPs:
TP1: 23.54% (23.6% Fib)
TP2: 30.81% (Full retrace = 0%)
TP3: 39.13% (–27% extension)
Current level: ~9.36%
Clear bullish structure with a “bounce–pullback–rebound” sequence
Indicators:
Fibonacci retracements from ~30.81% to 0%
Structural pattern: rounded bottom / double bottom
Hidden bullish divergence forming on weekly timeframe
Fundamental Context:
Institutional Inflows & ETF Dynamics:
Since July 2024’s launch of spot Ether ETFs, inflows have been strong with a 15-day streak totaling approximately $837 million (~25% of total net inflows).
Recently, the SEC approved options trading on spot ETH ETFs (e.g., BlackRock, Grayscale), deepening liquidity and offering hedging mechanisms.
BlackRock is now pushing to add staking functionality allowing yield generation within an ETF wrapper. If approved, this could markedly increase demand.
Staking Growth & On-Chain Supply Dynamics:
27% of ETH is already staked, and ETF inflows could lift that by >10%.
A staking ETF would institutionalize ETH staking: more capital locked, less circulating supply → supply constraints could support dominance and valuation.
Ethereum Backbone in DeFi & RWA:
Ethereum still leads the Real-World Asset (RWA) space: over 50% market share and ~$5–6 billion in assets tokenized on-chain.
Its core infrastructure underlies the majority of DeFi, smart contracts, and stablecoins, reinforcing ETH.D’s structural resilience.
Network Upgrades & Tech Progress:
The Pectra upgrade (mid-2025) is on the horizon, introducing EIP-7251/7702, improving validator flexibility and network usability.
Combined with recent Dencun improvements, Ethereum is becoming cheaper and more efficient, boosting adoption in L2 ecosystems.
Price action & on-chain indicators:
ETH price has surged ~46% in the past 30 days, driven by ETF demand; some analyst forecasts target $3,000–5,000 year-end.
The withdrawal of ~$1.2 billion ETH from exchanges suggests increasing long-term holdings and less selling pressure.
Integrating with Your Technical Setup:
Level: 78.6%–61.8% bounce zones (6–11%)
Fundamental Support: Institutional re-entry via ETFs often begins with accumulation near support.
Level: TP1 at 23.6% (23.5%)
Fundamental Support: Could coincide with ETF inflows + early vesting of staking narratives.
Level: TP2 (~30.8%)
Fundamental Support: Full retrace driven by mass ETF adoption, options trading, and upgrade momentum.
Level: TP3 >39% (–27% ext.)
Fundamental Support: If staking ETF and yield-bearing structures go live, ETH.D could reach new dominance highs.
Summary of Fundamental Catalysts:
Spot ETH ETF inflows (~$800 M), with options exposure adding liquidity.
Upcoming staking ETF (BlackRock, Grayscale) with >10% locked-up supply implications.
Ethereum remains the DeFi and RWA backbone, sustaining structural demand.
Protocol upgrades (Pectra, Dencun) enhance scalability and adoption.
On-chain withdrawal trends show growing holder conviction.
Narrative / Bias & Strategy Implication:
ETH.D has likely completed its correction and is primed for a staged bullish reversal, mirroring prior cycles. The chart forecasts a rally toward TP1, where some short-term profit-taking and rotation to alts may occur (Alts season). Following that, a retrace may set up the next impulsive move to reclaim lost dominance and eventually challenge prior highs.
Time Horizon: Mid-2025 to late 2026
Has the alt season started?Hello friends.
One of the signs of the start of the alt season is the Ethereum Dominance Index, which if it grows, we expect an alt season.
Now what can be seen in the chart is that Ethereum Dominance has started its growth, which means that the growth of altcoins has increased compared to Bitcoin, so we can give more weight to altcoins in the investment portfolio.
Now we can expect that after a certain amount of growth of this index, a correction will begin to start the upward trend.
Make your last purchases in the correction, don't say you didn't say so. (This will be a memory)
I hope you have used this analysis well.
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Approaching the Crossroads ETH.D is in the 1:0.618 GW zone.
Currently being held up by the 1.786; If this support structure collapses, there may be a high probability that the 1:0.786 overshoot will be the next stop.
When ETH.D starts taking off and BTC.D starts collapsing, this is the start signal for alt coin season.
The trend based fib time tool suggests this reversal may happen between May and September. This is quite a large time gap so I'm favoring somewhere in the middle. It could also reverse at a sooner time, but patience is key.
Considering the time left in this market cycle, it could be some wicked waves up. But we may be right in the middle of market cycle transformation. Meaning extended/more complex corrections and extended bull run phase. Time will tell if the average 4 year market cycle is something in the past.
- Not Financial Advice -
Ethereum DominanceYou all know that the market is made of numbers and algorithms and if you believe it then you never let you emotions decide for you.
I am talking just about this yellow box and I do not care for any thing else and it the way Elliott or Technical work for me. I expect a huge rally for Eth. till to May 2027 or Sep. 2028.
Time will talk about this scenario.