Ethereum D1 | Potential bullish bounceEthereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 3,470.65 which is a pullback support that aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 2,980.00 which is a level that lies underneath a a pullback support and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit is at 4,027.15 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
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ETHEREUM trade ideas
Ethereum Metric Projections for $5,700-$7,500 RangeEthereum (ETH/USD) - Integrating Cowen's Cycle Top Insights: Butterfly Pattern & S&P Fractal in One Chart, Plus Risk Metric Projections for $5,700-$7,500 Range
I've consolidated key ideas from quantitative analyst Benjamin Cowen's recent analysis into a single visual framework for Ethereum (ETH/USD) on the weekly timeframe, as of July 21, 2025, with ETH hovering around $3,500 following its rebound from the "going home" phase earlier this year. By overlaying Cowen's bearish butterfly harmonic pattern and the S&P 500 fractal (1989-1992) directly onto the chart, I've made his structural predictions accessible in one cohesive view, highlighting potential cycle tops without needing separate tools for those elements. For the risk metric bands, which aren't plotted here, I've pulled in Cowen's dynamic projections below as a complementary layer. His base case dovetails with the chart's signals, pointing to a realistic top between $5,700 and $7,500 ahead of a possible 2026 bear market, barring significant economic shocks. Let's dive in.
1. Bearish Butterfly Harmonic Pattern: Core Structure and Targets (Integrated on Chart)
Drawing from Cowen's "butterfly effect" video, I've labeled the pattern (points X, A, B, C, D) right on the chart to show its Elliott Wave roots and reversal potential at highs.
X to A: The foundational low-to-high move from the early 2020s.
A to B: Culminating at the ~$4,850 peak (2021 ATH).
B to C: The pullback to ~$900 (2022 low), nailing the 0.786 Fibonacci precisely.
C to D: The ongoing rally, with C spanning the 0.382-0.886 range—Ethereum pivoted at ~0.382 first, then probed lower.
Minimum target per Cowen: A 1.618 extension from B lands at ~$5,700, a spot to consider lightening up.
Bolder projections: Extending to 2.24 from B (~$7,500) or 1.272-1.618 from X (~$6,000-$7,300).
This setup, triggered post-ETH's "home" drop in Q2 2025 (which floored ETH/BTC), remains intact on the chart and forecasts rejection at D, ushering in the marked "anticipated bear market."
2. S&P 500 Fractal Comparison (1989-1992): Historical Roadmap (Overlaid on Chart)
I've directly superimposed Cowen's favored fractal onto the ETH price action for easy comparison, capturing its "perfect" alignment down to small dips and surges.
Parallels: ETH's post-halving trajectory echoes the S&P's extended climb before peaking.
Outlook: Projecting to January 2026 (factoring in ~6 months of remaining bull phase per 4-year crypto rhythms), the fractal hints at a low-end top around $5,300.
Fuller extension: Should the uptrend stretch (mirroring ETH's delayed 2018 top relative to BTC), it could hit ~$7,500 pre-bear phase.
Cowen ties this to BTC's recurring bears in 2014, 2018, and 2022 (post-halving), suggesting ETH aligns similarly—expect ATH breaches (~$4,850) but tempered by fading cycle intensity.
3. Ethereum Risk Metric: Quantifying Overheating and Diminishing Returns (Separate Projections)
Cowen's proprietary 0-1 scale (0 low risk, 1 high) adds data-backed context, sitting at ~0.672 currently (0.6-0.7 band, signaling room for gains before excess heat).
Recurring setup:
ETH "homes" at 0.3-0.4 risk across cycles (Q4 2016, Q4 2019, Q2 2025), syncing with ETH/BTC lows and ATH-bound rallies.
Past peaks:
Touched 0.4-0.5 and 0.5-0.6 in 2017/2020; highs at ~0.7-0.9, with 2017 grazing 0.9-1 fleetingly and 2021 at ~0.8-0.9 before faltering.
Dynamic targets (evolving with price; assuming no 2020-like crash from unemployment jumps):
0.7 risk: ~$4,100 (close to range ceilings and ATH entry).
0.8 risk: ~$5,600 (cautious peak aligner with butterfly mins; limited historical dwell time).
0.85 risk: ~$6,600 (momentum-fueled midpoint if post-ATH strength holds).
0.9 risk: ~$7,700 (stretch goal; brief past visits, adjusted for cycle fade).
0.95 risk: ~$9,000 (euphoria territory; Cowen flags as exit signal, improbable baseline).
1.0 risk: ~$10,000 (absolute cap; theoretical, not expected amid history's ~4% time over 0.8).
This bolsters the $5,700-$7,500 as grounded, per Cowen: "Realistic because folks crave $10,000"—rooted in data sans overreach.
4. Key Chart Annotations Supporting the Outlook
Momentum/Volume: Carp Momentum showing divergence; declining volume on upswings (e.g., Vol 8.42M labeled).
Other Annotations: Recent drop: -2,652 (-60.64%) over 265-200d; projected declines: -3,983.89 (-81.89%) over 351 bars/274d, and -4,527.68 (-80.01%) over 31 bars/21d, -4,710.46 (-81.99%) over 31 bars/274d.
Core view: Momentum for $4,000-$4,850 breaks, but with potential consolidations or 20% dips en route (e.g., daily RSI heating up, possible August-September correction like 2017).
5. Cycle Top Predictions and Navigation Strategy
Confluence Range: $5,700 (safe, 0.8 risk/butterfly floor) to $7,500 (bold, 0.9 risk/fractal ceiling)—Cowen's "realistic" span, screaming sensibility over $10K hype.
Upside outliers: $9,000-$10,000 at 0.95-1 risk, but Cowen urges bailing there.
Horizon: Late 2025/early 2026 crest, then bear (regression retest like priors).
Cowen's Dynamic DCA Out: Sidestep top-guessing by scaling sales at bands—off original stack:
0.6-0.7 (~$3,500-$4,100 now): 1/10th.
0.7-0.8 (~$4,800 ATH): 2/10ths (30% total).
0.8-0.9 (~$5,700-$7,500): 3/10ths (60% total).
0.9-1 ($9,000+): Rest (4/10ths).
Strength-selling yields dip-buy cash, hodl remnant for surprises.
6. Trade Setup (Bearish Long-Term, Bullish Near-Term)
Long Entry: Buy dips to $3,000-$3,200 support, eyeing ATH push.
Short Entry: At $5,700+ on cues (bear engulf, >0.8 risk).
Stop Loss: Over $4,850 (bull) or $8,000 (bear void).
Take Profits: Layered—$4,800, $5,700, $7,500; bear lows $2,000-$1,500.
Risk: 1-2% trades; crypto vol demands caution. Cowen: No certainties, but patterns favor ATHs pre-drop.
Void: Volume-backed $8,000+ surge eyes $10,000+, scrapping bear case.
Not advice—DYOR on macros/ETH shifts. Cowen sees pattern repeats with softer peaks. Your ETH thoughts? Comment!
#ETH #Ethereum #CryptoCycle #BearishButterfly #PricePrediction
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Ethereum at Crucial Resistance – Will the Bulls Hold or Fade?Ethereum at Crucial Resistance – Will the Bulls Hold or Fade?”
Ethereum is currently trading near a key resistance zone around $3,800, as marked on the chart. After a strong bullish rally with clear Break of Structures (BOS) along the way, ETH has now reached an extended point where price may face selling pressure.
The Bollinger Bands are stretched, showing overextension, and the marked arrow suggests a possible correction or pullback from this level. A retest of previous support zones (~$3,400–$3,200) could be expected if the resistance holds.
⸻
Key Levels:
• 🔼 Resistance: ~$3,800
• 🔽 Support: ~$3,400 / ~$3,000
• 🔄 Price Action: Watching for rejection or breakout confirmation
This is a textbook case of price approaching a strong resistance level after a bullish wave, where caution and confirmation are key for the next move.
ETH Season?Well, in all of its history Ethereum’s recent lows remind me the most of December 2019 while the recovery after reminds me the most of the bull rally after March 2020. Either way I think the time for ETH and crypto as a whole is very near. Here’s my charted roadmap. If BTC hit a new high and then some over a whole year already since it hit a new high, then how do we not expect ETH to do the same and probably amplified as well as certain alt coins too. Curious to see how this thesis plays out. Not financial advice
ETHUSD – Deploying Synthetic Capital as per VolanX Protocol📈 ETHUSD – Deploying Synthetic Capital as per VolanX Protocol
1H Chart | July 20, 2025
"No ducor, duco!"
(“I am not led, I lead.”)
🧠 Market Context:
Price is holding above the 50 MA, confirming upward momentum. Liquidity has been taken from prior internal highs, and price continues pushing into the premium zone above the 1.0 Fibonacci level.
🔧 VolanX Protocol Deployment Update:
✔️ Synthetic Block Order: Placed at $3,400, with precision according to Volan X synthetic injection model.
✔️ Regression Line: Sloping upward – momentum remains in favor of bulls.
✔️ Weak High Targeted: $3,850 zone approached with clear aggression.
✔️ Volume Uptick: Observed near FVG and mitigation zones – ideal for synthetic deployment timing.
📍 Key Zones:
🚩 Block Order Zone: $3,400
🎯 First Profit Target: $3,852 – $3,961 (Premium zone)
🟡 Ultimate Target: $4,259 – $4,419
🔵 Equilibrium Support: $3,328
💬 Narrative:
"We will book some profit, Regression line is up."
Price is behaving according to expectations. The 50 MA retest confirms the continuation bias, and we now monitor for the next volatility compression before expansion. Expect smart money to aim for the inefficiencies left near the $4,100–$4,250 level.
📊 Deployment Signal: LIVE
🧬 VolanX Engine: Active
📍 Next Review: Upon 1.382 fib reaction or volatility compression
#ETHUSD #VolanX #SyntheticCapital #SmartMoney #MomentumTrading #TradingStrategy #FVG #PriceAction #CryptoAnalysis
ETH is up about 50% Since June 2025Relying on the absolute intraday low from June to claim that ETH is “up 70%” is a textbook data‑skewing mistake often found in AI‑generated headlines. A more robust approach is to average prices over several days (or even a full week). On that basis, ETH has risen roughly 50% since June— not 70%. Don’t let a distorted headline push you into adding leverage through perpetuals just because your strategy’s returns lag spot performance; that reaction only compounds impermanent‑loss risk.
Inspired my Benjamin CowenWhilst this is also high speculation and to not be used to predict the market, using Benjamin Cowen's idea of using the SPX Index's 1990's timeframes and extending them to match the potential ETHUSD cycle.
You'll see how the early parts to the moves are near 1/1 of each other. Looking into the future, you'll also see that the SPX's moves interact with the middle part of the channel multiple times, and begins to decline in the potential bear market (yellow dashing lines). This also looks pretty convincing. Charts are so fascinating.
the Inverse Golden BullrunJust a joke maybe but here some considerations...
each peak is reached in 1/0.606 * previous cycle length, which is oddly close to the inverse of the golden ratio. The Q1 peak in 2024 seems to have occurred oddly in advance.
Resistance of bear markets can be found at a common focal points and all have an angle of approx 20° on the linear scale.
this inverse golden bullrun will produce a very turbolent market with a new local top in 2025. This seems reasonable considering the whole global situation, crypto narrative, oversaturation and how we got rejection before breaking the past ATH.
the overall superstructure could break out or be confirmed after next "inverse golden bullrun"
oddly again, should the breakout occurr, it would happen around 1/3rd of the triangle, which is typical for those structures.
overall, not bullish nor bearish, don't hate.
most certainly mostly wrong ;)
not a financial advice, just for fun.
ETH on the 1H timeframe
Indicators are showing slight weakness:
MLR < SMA < BB Center
Price is trading below the 50MA
RSI is under the midpoint, and green volume is fading
This could just be a pause before the next leg up
but I’m curious whether the last high of $3,678.86 was this week’s top,
or if price will try to break it tomorrow.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
*ETH 4H — Charging the 0.236 @3700$ETH on the 4H is getting ready to charge the 0.236 Fib level.
MLR > SMA > BB Center — momentum is aligned.
Volume confirms the move.
Even though I don't enjoy it — and last time I sold just a part of the position too soon —
I placed a partial TP again. It needs to be done. The market can always turn.
We’ll be here to see it unfold.
Always take profits and manage risk.
Interaction is welcome.
#ETHEREUM - 900 POINTS MOVE ON THE RADARDate: 19-05-2025
#ETHEREUM - The last time we posted an update on this scrip was on 24th April. In fact, we did have had a run-up for about 900+ points move and we are expecting the same this time around also. I am making it very clear that the number of points it can move but not a direction. The chart says so.
Current Price: $2469
Mid-Point: $2571.73
Upside Targets: $2991.35, $3232.17, $3479.84 and $3727.50
Downside Targets: $2152.94, $1911.29, $1663.63 and $1415.96
Support: $2394.59
Resistance: $2750.52
ETHUSD - ANOTHER GROWING WEEK
ETHUSD - ANOTHER GROWING WEEK✅
ETHUSD has been growing all these days together with a bitcoin. All the news, listed in my previous post for the BTCUSD are also valuable here. Really nice fundamental support, people are purchasing the asset.
But what's with technicals? 📊
Compared to the bitcoin, ETHUSD hasn't reached ATH. According to a daily chart (pic 1), the price has been moving sideways since 2021 and a strong resistance is waiting ahead at 4,000.00. However, for now we are good. I bet that during upcoming days the asset will reach this level and rebound from it. Will it break the resistance? I think it is too early to make any conclusions.
Technical **chart analysis** for ETH/USDTechnical **chart analysis** for **ETH/USD** based on (15-min timeframe) :
Bullish Outlook**
* **Price Action**: Ethereum is consolidating just above previous resistance (\~\$3,440) after a breakout from the range.
* **Current Price**: \~\$3,446
* **EMA Support**:
* EMA 7: \$3,441 (price holding above)
* EMA 21: \$3,413
* EMA 50: \$3,376 (strong dynamic support)
Key Levels**
* **Resistance Broken**: Former resistance zone (\~\$3,415–\$3,440) now acting as support.
* **S1 Support Zone**: \$3,415–\$3,440 (ideal retest zone for long entries)
* **S2 Support Zone**: \$3,335–\$3,350 (next demand zone if S1 fails)
Analysis Summary**
* **Trend**: Bullish momentum is intact above EMA cluster.
* **Setup**: Retest of breakout zone successful → price stabilizing above EMA7.
* **Target Area**: If momentum continues, next target zone could be \$3,500–\$3,560 (as shown by green arrow).
* **Invalidation**: Drop below \$3,413 (EMA21) and especially \$3,376 (EMA50) would weaken the bullish structure.
Ethereum (ETH) – Strategic Trade PlanEthereum (ETH) continues to show resilience, currently trading around $1,790 after a strong bounce earlier this month. While the crypto market remains volatile, ETH is holding key technical levels that could fuel a major move in the coming weeks.
🎯 Entry Points:
Market Price: $1,790 — Ideal for an early position, as ETH holds above critical support zones.
$1,645 — Secondary strong support, aligning with the 20-day EMA; great for scaling in if market pulls back.
$1,400 — Deep value zone, offering a high-risk/high-reward setup if broader market correction occurs.
💰 Profit Targets:
$2,500 — First major resistance. A realistic mid-term target if bullish momentum sustains.
$3,000 — Psychological milestone and breakout confirmation level.
$3,800+ — Ambitious but achievable with broader crypto market recovery and strong ETH network metrics.
🛡️ Risk Management:
Set stop-losses dynamically below each entry support level.
Scale into positions progressively to manage volatility.
Monitor macroeconomic trends and Bitcoin's influence closely.
🔍 Key Observations:
Strong on-chain activity supports a bullish thesis.
Current resistance around $1,812 must be broken to confirm bullish continuation.
Be cautious of sudden market-wide corrections — always plan your exits and manage your risk accordingly.
📢 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves significant risk, and you should only invest what you can afford to lose. Always perform your own research before entering any position.