ETHUSD.PI trade ideas
ETHUSD Smart Money Breakdown – Price Rejection from Premium ZoneEthereum has shown a strong impulsive rally after multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) from early June, signaling a clear shift in market sentiment from bearish to bullish. Each BOS indicates that demand zones have been respected and liquidity has been efficiently used to fuel higher prices — a classic signature of institutional involvement.
🧠 Smart Money Insight
As price aggressively rallied into the resistance zone ($3,600–$3,800), the market entered a premium pricing area, where smart money typically offloads positions and hunts liquidity from late buyers. This area has historically been a high reaction zone — and as seen on the chart, ETH shows signs of buyer exhaustion, suggesting a possible short-term reversal.
🔁 Anticipated Market Behavior
A corrective move is likely from this resistance, and the first target for retracement lies in the support zone around $3,000–$3,200. This level aligns with:
Previous BOS retest area
Fair value imbalance fill
Mid-range equilibrium
If momentum continues downward, the next zone of interest will be the strong support region at $2,200–$2,400, which served as a major accumulation zone. That’s where large orders previously entered the market — and a strong reaction is expected again.
📊 Market Structure Summary:
BOS Confirmations: Validated bullish structure
Liquidity Grab: At resistance – potential sweep and reversal
Premium Zone Rejection: Smart money short opportunity
Discount Zone Targets: Support & strong support zones
✅ Conclusion
ETH is at a critical decision point. If price holds below resistance with continued bearish pressure, a retracement is not only healthy — it's expected. Traders should wait for confirmation of lower timeframe structure breaks before entering shorts, and target the $3,000 zone first, with eyes on $2,200 if momentum persists.
ETH relative to AltcoinsI fee like at this current point as we see altcoin pairs bleed against ETH and BTC while putting in lower lows while Eth puts in higher highs we will not see the altseason we are hoping for until altcoin pairs hit here range lows which I can see happen end of Q3 into the start of Q4 but until then they can still rise as ETH.D continues its rally but I feel until altcoins reach its range lows being the .25 lvl on (TOTAL3-USDT)/BTC we will not see that face melting rally we are looking for.
ETH SHORT || 4 HOUR CHARTEthereum just made a huge parabolic move and tapped into a key daily resistance zone around $3,676. Price is now reacting with a bearish candle on the 4H, suggesting a likely pullback.
🧠 Trade Idea: Short ETH/USD
Entry: $3,495 (current level)
Stop Loss: $3,676 (above resistance)
Take Profit: $3,130 / $3,082 (support targets marked on chart)
📌 Commentary:
ETH has been in a strong uptrend, but such parabolic rallies often retrace sharply once momentum fades. Given the strong rejection at daily resistance and the bearish 4H setup, I’m expecting a short-term retracement to the marked support levels.
📊 Watching price action closely near those zones for potential bounce setups.
🚨 Not financial advice. Always use proper risk management.
Eth killer Today was a solid trading day with some interesting moves across the markets:
S&P 500: The market trended upwards from the open, gradually moving into and above the prior day’s value area, closing near the high of that range.
NASDAQ 100: After some initial back-and-forth, it climbed above the prior day’s high and value area, showing strength into the close.
Russell 2000: This market was quite choppy and balanced for a good part of the session, but eventually pushed up to close near the prior value area high.
Gold: It stayed range-bound, moving between the CVA high and the prior day’s value area without breaking out.
### **Bearish Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)**### **Bearish Analysis of Ethereum (ETH)**
Here is a bearish outlook on Ethereum (ETH) based on current market dynamics, incorporating technical, liquidity, and fundamental factors:
---
### **1. Technical Resistance & Topping Signals**
- **Key Resistance Zone**: ETH has repeatedly tested the **$3,000–$3,080** resistance level but failed to sustain a breakout. If it cannot hold above this range, a pullback toward **$2,865** or even **$2,710** is likely.
- **Daily Chart Topping Pattern**: Some analysts suggest the current rally may form a "daily top." While an immediate reversal is unlikely, the trend could shift to bearish dominance, with potential resistance near **$3,160**.
- **Overbought Risk**: The RSI has exceeded 70, indicating short-term overbought conditions. A loss of momentum could trigger a correction.
---
### **2. Heavy Shorting by Hedge Funds & Basis Arbitrage**
- **Surge in Short Positions**: CFTC data shows hedge funds have amassed **$1.73 billion** in ETH short positions on CME, marking a record high in net leveraged short exposure.
- **Basis Arbitrage Strategy**: Institutions are executing delta-neutral strategies by shorting futures while buying spot ETFs (annualized arbitrage ~9.5%). However, heightened volatility (e.g., a "Black Thursday"-like event) could trigger a short squeeze.
- **Whale Shorting Activity**: High-leverage (4.1x) short positions by whales (e.g., 0xSifu) reflect market skepticism about ETH's long-term competitiveness.
---
### **3. Fundamental Weaknesses**
- **Ecosystem Underperformance**: In 2025, ETH was among the worst-performing top-five crypto assets (down 51% YTD), lagging behind competitors like Solana. DeFi TVL has dropped **43%**, signaling declining user engagement.
- **Staking Risks**: While **29% of ETH is staked**, reducing liquid supply, high staking ratios may constrain market liquidity. A price drop could trigger panic unstaking.
- **Institutional Selling Pressure**: The Ethereum Foundation recently sold **1,206.7 ETH (~$3.6 million)**, fueling concerns about insider divestment.
---
### **4. Market Sentiment & Capital Flows**
- **BTC Dominance Pressure**: Bitcoin’s recent all-time high (**$118,000**) may divert capital away from ETH and other altcoins.
- **Extreme Short Positioning**: ETH’s open interest shows **62% short bias**, the highest since 2021. While this raises short-squeeze risks, it also reflects doubts about the sustainability of the rally.
---
### **5. Key Risks & Outlook**
- **Downside Triggers**:
- A break below **$2,865** could accelerate a drop toward **$2,530**.
- A Fed policy shift or global liquidity tightening.
- Competitors (e.g., Solana) gaining further market share.
- **Potential Reversal Signals**:
- A sustained breakout above **$3,080** may force short covering.
- If the **ETH/BTC ratio** surpasses **0.026 BTC**, an altcoin season could emerge.
---
### **Conclusion**
In the short term, ETH faces headwinds from technical resistance, institutional shorting, and capital rotation into Bitcoin. The bearish thesis holds for now, but extreme short positioning raises the risk of a squeeze. Traders should monitor:
- The **$3,080** resistance and **$2,865** support levels.
- Bitcoin’s market dominance and macroeconomic policy shifts.
ETH — Rally Exhaustion or More Upside?ETH has been on an absolute tear. After retesting its old 2018 all-time high, it marked a bottom at $1383 — a brutal -66% correction over 114 days from the $4109 top.
From there, ETH ripped +100% in just one month, followed by 40 days of consolidation, and now, over the past 28 days, it’s surged another +76%, currently trading around $3715 — all without any major correction.
So the big question:
What’s next? Are we near a short setup, or is it time to long?
Let’s break it down.
🧩 Key Technicals
➡️ Bounce Zone:
On June 22, ETH retested the 0.5 fib ($2131.63) of the prior 5-wave Elliott impulse, with extra confluence from:
Anchored VWAP
Speed fan 0.618
➡️ Key Highs to Watch:
$3746 → recent local high
$4109 → 2021 all-time high
➡️ Fib Retracement Levels:
ETH has smashed through all major fibs, including the golden pocket (0.618–0.65) and 0.786 fib. The 0.886 fib at $3798.27 is the last major resistance, just above the $3746 key high.
At this zone, we also have:
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Monthly Resistance
Negative Fib Extension Golden Pocket Target
➡️ Momentum Signal:
ETH is currently on its 8th consecutive bullish daily candle — historically, after 8–13 consecutive candles, price tends to cool off or correct. A sign to be cautious about longing here and consider profit-taking.
🔴 Short Trade Setup
Look for a potential SFP (swing failure pattern) at the key high $3746 to initiate a short trade.
This offers a low-risk setup with:
Entry: around $3746 (if SFP confirms)
Target (TP): ~$3300
Stop-loss: above SFP
R:R ≈ 1:4+
💡 Educational Insight: Why You Don’t Want to Long the Top
Markets often trap late longers near key highs or resistance zones — this is where smart money distributes while retail piles in emotionally.
Lesson: Look for zones of confluence (fib, VWAP, liquidity, FVG) and avoid chasing extended moves after multiple bullish candles.
Patience and confirmation at reversal points lead to higher-probability setups — you don’t need to catch every pump.
Final Thoughts
We’re approaching major highs, so this is a time for caution, not FOMO. Watch for reaction and potential reversals near $3750–$3850.
Stay sharp, manage risk — and remember, tops are where longs get trapped.
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Ethereum (ETH/USD) Chart AnalysisEthereum (ETH/USD) Chart Analysis
**Trend Overview:**Ethereum (ETH/USD) Chart Analysis
* The chart shows **strong bullish momentum**, with Ethereum maintaining an upward trend of **higher highs and higher lows**.
* The price is currently around **\$3,618**, well above the key moving averages:
* **EMA(7): \$3,610**
* **EMA(21): \$3,539**
* **EMA(50): \$3,419**
**Support Levels:**
* The recent pullback found support at the **\$3,570–\$3,600 zone**, which is now acting as a **key horizontal support**.
* Below this, **EMA 21 (\$3,539)** and **EMA 50 (\$3,419)** offer additional dynamic support zones.
* Marked support areas **S1 and S2** also highlight previous breakout zones that could act as strong demand levels if retested.
**Bullish Outlook:**
* As long as ETH stays **above the support zone**, the bullish trend is likely to continue.
* A bounce from the current level could lead to a **retest of \$3,740**, followed by a move toward the **\$4,000 target** shown by the projected green path on the chart.
**Indicators & Sentiment:**
* Price respecting the EMA lines confirms **strong buyer interest** on pullbacks.
* No visible bearish divergence, and the chart structure favors **trend continuation**.
**Conclusion:**
Ethereum remains in a **bullish structure**, with strong support around \$3,570–\$3,600. As long as it holds above this zone, the next upside targets are \$3,740 and potentially \$4,000. A break below the EMAs would signal weakness, but for now, momentum supports continued gains.
ETH - FULL top-to-bottem AnalysisHere is the full analysis for CRYPTOCAP:ETH as requested 🫡
Weekly Time-frame:
We currently have one potential bullish structure for this cycle, which could take ETH into the $8,600–$10,400 price range.
This sequence gets activated once we break the all-time high at $4,867.
That area also marks my maximum target for this cycle — anything beyond that is pure maga FOMO, and I’m not going to gamble on some “super cycle” narrative.
At the weekly level, I wouldn’t recommend making additional buys in the current price range.
If you're still sidelined at this point, you should honestly reflect on your positioning this cycle — we’ve been given plenty opportunities to enter at good prices.
Daily Chart:
Around 1.5 weeks ago, we finally broke through the major resistance at $2.8k, which has been the key level to watch for the past two years.
That breakout also activated a bullish structure, targeting the $4,500–$5,100 range — which aligns with new all-time highs.
However, a retracement before reaching the target zone is always possible, and any pullback should be viewed as a gift for long entries.
I’ll be placing 4 long orders at each Fib level within the orange B–C retracement zone, each with a stop-loss just before the next level.
The key resistance to watch now is around $4k — once we break above that, hitting the target zone becomes highly likely.
Local price action:
Currently, no valid structures can be identified on the lower timeframes.
However, if valid bearish structures appear on the 1H or 4H charts, I’ll consider them for hedge short opportunities.
Summary:
All in all, waiting is the best strategy right now.
I wouldn’t recommend buying in this region anymore — and it's still too early for valid short setups.
Hope this analysis was helpful for at least one person ❤️
Thanks for reading,
Cheers!
"Ethereum Is The New Bitcoin" - Tom Lee ETH / Stablecoins Are the ChatGPT of Crypto
Stablecoins are exploding in adoption — just like ChatGPT took over AI and Ethereum is the engine driving that revolution. In this post, we break down 10 reasons why Tom Lee is extremely bullish on Ethereum and why it could be the single most important digital asset in the future of finance . If you're sleeping on ETH, this might be your wake-up call.
Top 10 Bullish Points from Tom Lee on Ethereum:
• Ethereum is the backbone of stablecoins , which Tom Lee compares to the “ChatGPT of crypto” due to their viral adoption and massive utility.
• Over 51% of all stablecoins operate on Ethereum , contributing to around 30% of the network’s total fees.
• Ethereum network fees could 10x as stablecoin usage grows from $250 billion to $2 trillion.
• Ethereum is positioned to lead the tokenization of real-world assets , including stocks and real estate.
• ETH could reach $10,000 if asset tokenization becomes a mainstream financial practice.
• Ethereum has a regulatory edge in the U.S. , making it the preferred platform for compliant financial innovation.
• A $250 million ETH treasury strategy is underway , aiming to use Ethereum as a long-term reserve asset.
• Institutions will buy and stake ETH to secure stablecoin networks, making ETH the “next Bitcoin.”
• Ethereum dominates the crypto ecosystem , with nearly 60% of activity including DeFi, NFTs, and dApps built on its chain.
• HODL ETH for long-term growth , as its utility, demand, and institutional support continue to rise.
Conclusion:
Ethereum isn’t just a Layer 1 blockchain — it’s becoming the core financial infrastructure for the digital age . As stablecoins expand and institutions enter, ETH could be the most asymmetric opportunity in crypto right now.
📢 Drop a like, leave your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to follow for more powerful macro + crypto insights. 👍👍
Ethereum Breakout and Liquidations – A Lesson in Bear Traps and 📚💥 Ethereum Breakout and Liquidations – A Lesson in Bear Traps and Risk Management 🧠📈
Today, July 16th, Ethereum gave us a real-time masterclass in market psychology and risk management.
Let’s start with the facts:
📊 Liquidation Data
🔻 $36.34M in long liquidations
🔺 $86.02M in short liquidations
💣 Total ETH liquidations: $122.36M (data mentioned on video might differ, i made a small mistake)
🌐 Across crypto: $351M liquidated (more shorts than longs)
This imbalance tells us one thing: a bear trap played out, and it played out hard.
🧠 Educational Takeaways
1. Bear Traps Are Real — and Expensive
A bear trap occurs when the market appears bearish, drawing in short sellers — only to violently reverse upward. Today’s Ethereum move was a textbook example. If you’ve been following my analysis, we discussed the regression lines, divergences, and structure that all warned against going short at support.
2. Open Interest and Sentiment Signals
Open interest has been declining — which means fewer speculative positions. That often creates space for a real, organic move, not one fueled by overleveraged noise.
3. Spot vs. Leverage – Risk Control First
Leverage isn’t the enemy — unmanaged leverage is. I personally use a dedicated high-risk account to trade fast setups. This keeps my core capital untouched and my psychology stable.
✅ Risk is defined before the trade.
✅ Entries are structured like bullets — small, multiple attempts.
4. The Mental Game is the Real Game
Trading isn’t just technical. It’s deeply psychological. Whether you’re trading Ethereum, Bitcoin, or altcoins like AVAX and XRP, emotions must be managed before capital is deployed.
5. Like-Minded Community = Sharper Edge
My best trades and insights often come from conversations with trusted, sharp minds in this space. Surrounding yourself with serious traders can be the difference between evolving — and evaporating. To my brother Vlatko (met on Tradingview, been hanging around online ever since, met in person once, now a true friend that we frequently disagree but always agree to respect and empower each other = The power of our community here on TV!)
Final Word:
When markets move fast, lessons appear even faster.
Study the traps. Respect the levels. Structure your risk.
And above all: trade with a plan that allows joy.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR 💙
Disclosure: I am happy to be part of the Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Awesome broker, where the trader really comes first! 🌟🤝📈
ETH/USD BUY SETUP 1-HOUR Based on the chart we provided (ETH/USD 1H from TradingView), here’s a technical analysis for potential Take Profit (TP) and Stop Loss (SL) levels:
🟢 Buy Setup Analysis (From the yellow demand/support zone)
Entry Zone:
Around $2,556 – $2,563 (current price zone and consolidation before projected breakout)
Stop Loss (SL):
Just below the yellow support zone:
🔻 $2,320 – $2,350
(Safe buffer under the strong support area marked by blue arrows)
Take Profit Levels (TP):
1. 🥇 TP1: $2,600 – $2,610
Just below the resistance level formed previously (also at the consolidation zone)
2. 🥈 TP2: $2,735 – $2,745
Matches previous significant rejection point (marked by red arrows)
3. 🥉 TP3 (Max Target): $2,754 – $2,760
Major resistance area, strong supply zone
🔴 Risk Management Summary:
Parameter Value
Entry $2,556 – $2,563
SL $2,320 – $2,350
TP1 $2,600
TP2 $2,735
TP3 $2,754
🛡 Risk/Reward Ratio: At least 1:2 or better if targeting TP2 or TP3.
$Eth Faces Double Top Resistance with Bearish RSI DivergenceETH/USDT | 4H Analysis
Ethereum is currently showing signs of weakness on the 4H chart, forming a potential double top pattern around the $3,700-$3,680 range.
Adding to this, the RSI is exhibiting bearish divergence, suggesting that bullish momentum is fading. There's a visible liquidity gap between $3,200–$3,180, which might act as a magnet in the short term. A retest of this zone is likely before ETH attempts to resume its upward move.
Key Observations:
🟠 Double top structure on 4H chart
🔻 Bearish RSI divergence
🕳️ Favorable gap: $3,200 – $3,180
🔁 Watch for price reaction after retest
⚠️ If ETH holds the $3,180 support after filling the gap, a bullish bounce toward higher levels could follow.
📌 This idea is for educational purposes. Trade wisely with proper risk management.
$Ethereum / USD 4H AnalysisMARKETSCOM:ETHEREUM / USD 4H Analysis
ETH has shown a massive rally of +82.5%, climbing from the $1,900 area to a local high of ~$3,670.
🔑 Key Levels & Zones:
🔹 Resistance Zone:
~$3,750–$3,800 Price is reacting here after a strong bullish move. Potential local top if no breakout follows.
🔹 First Demand Zone:
~$3,500 Nearest 4H demand zone. A possible area for a short-term bounce or continuation if price retraces.
🔹 Mid-Level Demand Zone:
~$2,950 Previous consolidation zone, now flipped into support. Stronger structure here.
🔹 Deep Support Zone:
~$2,530 Major support in case of a deep correction. Confluence with previous breakout zone and unfilled demand.
🧠 After an 82% run, ETH might enter a short-term distribution or pullback phase. Eyes on how it reacts around $3,500. If that level holds continuation possible. If not expect deeper retracement.
Ethereum: Bullish Momentum Signals Broader Rally Beyond $3000Current Price: $3002.13
Direction: LONG
Targets:
- T1 = $3120.00
- T2 = $3203.00
Stop Levels:
- S1 = $2934.00
- S2 = $2842.00
**Wisdom of Professional Traders:**
This analysis synthesizes insights from thousands of professional traders and market experts, leveraging collective intelligence to identify high-probability trade setups. The wisdom-of-crowds principle suggests that aggregated market perspectives from experienced professionals often outperform individual forecasts, reducing cognitive biases and highlighting consensus opportunities in Ethereum.
**Key Insights:**
Ethereum shows robust uptrend momentum, underpinned by significant institutional demand and strengthening market sentiment. As the primary cryptocurrency supporting decentralized finance (DeFi) and non-fungible tokens (NFTs), Ethereum has positioned itself at the forefront of blockchain advancements. The growing adoption by institutions and favorable macroeconomic conditions further consolidate its growth prospects, especially with the increasing recognition of Ethereum as a digital inflation hedge.
Positive developments in regulatory frameworks around cryptocurrencies have also been instrumental in improving market sentiment. Ethereum continues to showcase strong transactional activity on its network, bolstering demand for ETH tokens as a utility. Heightened activity ahead of protocol upgrades is another catalyst that traders are closely monitoring.
**Recent Performance:**
Ethereum has maintained a steady price appreciation trend in alignment with broader cryptocurrency market gains. From its previous trading range below $3000, Ethereum has breached psychological resistance, marking $3002.13 as a pivotal level. Increased trading volume and positive sentiment have allowed Ethereum to test higher resistance levels, making it well-positioned for potential upside continuation.
**Expert Analysis:**
Market experts remain bullish on Ethereum, citing fundamental strengths such as its adaptability, technological utility, and yield-generating capabilities through staking. With investor demand continuing to grow, Ethereum is expected to outperform many altcoins and maintain leadership alongside Bitcoin. Analysts project an intermediate target of $3200, while the longer-term objectives extend beyond $3500 given its current trajectory.
Technical metrics also signal bullish momentum, including sustained moving average support and increasing RSI levels. Investors may find attractive reward-to-risk setups at current levels, supported by favorable macro and crypto-specific factors.
**News Impact:**
Ethereum has benefited from an improving regulatory environment in key crypto jurisdictions, which has alleviated some uncertainty. Simultaneously, positive macroeconomic trends, such as declining inflation expectations and risk-on sentiment across equity markets, have boosted overall investor confidence. Ethereum’s role in various decentralized applications (dApps) and strategic partnerships with enterprises further solidify its potential for sustained growth.
**Trading Recommendation:**
Traders should consider taking a long position on Ethereum, targeting $3120 and $3203 as near-term objectives while maintaining disciplined risk management with stops at $2934 and $2842. The combination of fundamental strength, technical indicators, and favorable news impacts positions Ethereum as an attractive investment opportunity amidst current market dynamics.