EURJPY SHORT – DAILY FORECAST Q3 | W29 | D14 | Y25 GAP SHORT!!!!💼 EURJPY SHORT – DAILY FORECAST
Q3 | W29 | D14 | Y25
📊 MARKET STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT
EURJPY is currently reacting from a key higher time frame supply zone, with price action showing weakness at premium levels. Structure and momentum are now aligning for a short opportunity backed by multi-timeframe confluence.
🔍 Confluences to Watch 📝
✅ Daily Order Block (OB)
Strong reaction and early signs of distribution.
Previous bullish momentum is losing steam; structure is flattening with rejection wicks forming.
✅ 4H Order Block
Break of internal structure (iBoS) confirms a short-term bearish transition.
✅ 1H Order Block
1H structure shift bearish
📈 Risk Management Protocols
🔑 Core principles:
Max 1% risk per trade
Only execute at pre-identified levels
Use alerts, not emotion
Stick to your RR plan — minimum 1:2
🧠 You’re not paid for how many trades you take, you’re paid for how well you manage risk.
🧠 Weekly FRGNT Insight
"Trade what the market gives, not what your ego wants."
Stay mechanical. Stay focused. Let the probabilities work.
🏁 Final Thoughts from FRGNT
📌 The structure is clear.
The confluences are stacked.
Let execution follow discipline, not emotion.
EURJPY trade ideas
$EJ (EURJPY) 1HEURJPY recently showed a strong bullish rally off a key 1H Order Block (OB) near 171.200. This rally swept sell-side liquidity before shifting short-term structure.
However, current price action shows signs of weakness — multiple rejection wicks near 172.350 and a potential shift in momentum.
The corrective structure forming suggests the bullish move may have been a liquidity run. A clean lower high may confirm bearish intent.
As long as price remains below the recent swing high, we anticipate a short-term retracement toward the OB zone (171.200), which aligns with an area of unfilled orders and possible rebalancing.
eurjpy buy setup Setup Breakdown:
1. Previous Downtrend and Market Structure Shift (MSS):
Price was in a clear downtrend, as seen on the left side.
A Market Structure Shift (MSS) is marked — this suggests the beginning of a potential bullish reversal.
After MSS, price makes a higher high and pulls back, indicating bullish interest.
2. Liquidity Grab Below Previous Day’s Low (PDL):
Price swept below the Previous Day's Low (PDL) and into a demand zone (blue and purple shaded box).
This is a classic liquidity hunt — smart money clears out stop losses below the PDL before reversing.
3. Refined Demand Zone (Entry):
Entry is planned at the refined demand zone, where price previously showed buying interest.
The entry (pink box) is within this zone, suggesting you’re anticipating a reaction there.
4. FVG (Fair Value Gap) Fill and Targeting Supply:
The target zone is marked in the grey box at the top, just below 172.221, likely a previous supply area or unmitigated order block.
The grey shaded area is a high reward zone, showing you expect a strong bullish move from demand into that supply.
5. Risk-to-Reward:
Stop loss just below the demand zone, likely under the liquidity sweep.
Take profit is around 2–3x the stop distance, targeting the premium/supply area.
✅ Why This is a Strong Buy Setup:
MSS confirmed (shift from bearish to bullish structure).
PDL sweep = liquidity grab → fuels bullish move.
Entry in refined demand aligned with price action logic.
Clear imbalanced area above → price may seek to fill inefficiencies.
High Risk-Reward with low drawdown potential if demand holds
EURJPY – Buy the Dip in a Continuing UptrendTrade Idea
Type: Buy Limit
Entry: 171.00
Target: 172.50
Stop Loss: 170.25
Duration: Intraday
Expires: 11/07/2025 06:00
Technical Overview
The primary trend remains bullish, with no clear signs that the upward move is ending.
While a correction is possible, it is expected to be contained within the broader uptrend, providing an opportunity to buy at lower levels.
A move above 172.00 will confirm renewed bullish momentum, supporting a move toward 172.50, with a measured move target at 172.75.
Current levels do not offer a good risk/reward for immediate buying, so waiting for a dip to 171.00 is preferred.
No significant economic events are scheduled in the next 24 hours, keeping the focus on technical factors.
Key Technical Levels
Support: 172.00 / 171.50 / 171.00
Resistance: 172.00 / 172.50 / 172.75
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
EUR/JPY Hits 12-Month HighEUR/JPY Hits 12-Month High
As the chart indicates, the EUR/JPY pair has risen above ¥172 per euro — a level last seen in July 2024.
Since early June, the exchange rate has increased by approximately 5.6%. This upward movement is driven by a combination of factors, including:
→ Divergence in central bank policy: The European Central Bank’s key interest rate remains significantly higher than that of the Bank of Japan, making the euro more attractive in terms of yield compared to the yen.
→ US trade tariffs on Japan: The potential imposition of 25% tariffs by the United States on Japanese goods poses a threat to Japan’s export-driven economy, placing downward pressure on the national currency.
→ Eurozone expansion and consolidation: News of Bulgaria’s potential accession to the euro area is strengthening investor confidence in the single currency.
→ Weakness in the US dollar: As the US Dollar Index fell to its lowest level since early 2022 this July, demand for the euro has grown, positioning it as a key alternative reserve currency.
Can the rally continue?
Technical Analysis of EUR/JPY
For several months, the pair traded within a range of approximately ¥156–165 per euro, but has recently broken above the upper boundary of this channel. Based on technical analysis, the width of the previous range implies a potential price target in the region of ¥174 per euro.
It is noteworthy that the rally gained momentum (as indicated by the arrow) following the breakout above the psychological threshold of 170, a sign of bullish market dominance. At the same time, the RSI has surged to a multi-month high, signalling moderate overbought conditions.
Under these circumstances, the market may be vulnerable to a short-term correction, potentially:
→ Towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel (shown in orange);
→ To retest the psychological support around ¥170.
That said, a reversal of the prevailing trend would likely require a significant shift in the fundamental backdrop — for example, progress towards a trade agreement between Japan and the United States.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EURJPY at Risk of Breakdown Below Key Support📈 EURJPY Approaches Key Technical Breakout Point
EURJPY is caught between a critical 4H support and weekly resistance, with momentum beginning to compress. The next move hinges on whether price holds the rising trendline or breaks beneath it. This update outlines the active structure, key levels, and macro narrative around JPY weakness.
🔍 Technical Analysis:
EURJPY recently rejected from weekly resistance at 172.53 and is now sitting on the 4H support at 171.24, right above an ascending trendline. The structure remains bullish while this trendline holds, but a breakdown below 170.77 would flip the bias.
On the upside, reclaiming 172.53 opens the path toward 174.33 (Last Daily Resistance). If support gives way, expect a drop toward 166.80 or lower.
🛡️ Support Zones (if pullback continues):
🟢 171.24 – 4H Support (High Risk)
Immediate support. Good for tight risk scalps.
Stop-loss: Below 170.77
🟡 166.89 – 165.27 – 1H Last Support (Medium Risk)
Strong historical base + diagonal confluence. Favorable for intraday or swing entries.
Stop-loss: Below 165.00
🔼 Resistance Levels:
🔴 172.53 – Weekly Resistance
Key rejection point. Break above this confirms upside continuation.
🔴 174.33 – Last Daily Resistance
Major supply zone. Bullish breakout target.
🧭 Outlook:
Bullish Case:
Hold above 171.24 and break 172.53 = upside continuation toward 174.33.
Bearish Case:
Break below 170.77 and failure to reclaim = possible slide toward 166.80 and below.
Bias:
Neutral–bullish while price holds above trendline. Flip bearish on close below 170.77.
🌍 Fundamental Insight:
JPY remains weak due to BoJ’s ultra-loose stance. However, intervention risk remains elevated if yen depreciation becomes disorderly. Euro remains supported by ECB’s hawkish tone and improving economic data. Watch for BOJ rhetoric and global yield shifts.
✅ Conclusion:
EURJPY is resting at a structural pivot between 4H support and weekly resistance. A breakout in either direction will likely determine the trend into August. Bulls must defend the trendline and 171.24 to stay in control.
Not financial advice. Like & follow for more high-probability setups across FX majors.