EURUSD trade ideas
DeGRAM | EURUSD rebound from the trend line📊 Technical Analysis
● Price printed a hammer and bullish RSI divergence on the lower rail of the 3-week descending channel (green arrow 1.1598), breaking the inner wedge that guided last leg down.
● First resistance is the channel mid-line / prior pivot 1.1632; a move through it exposes the upper band near 1.1692, where July supply and the larger bearish trend-line converge.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Softer US retail-sales control-group and Daly’s “more evidence needed” remarks cooled 2-yr yields, trimming dollar support, while ECB’s Knot said additional cuts “are not imminent,” limiting euro downside.
✨ Summary
Long 1.1600-1.1620; hold above 1.1632 targets 1.1690. Long view void on an H1 close below 1.1580.
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Market Analysis: EUR/USD Pares GainsMarket Analysis: EUR/USD Pares Gains
EUR/USD declined from the 1.1750 resistance and traded below 1.1650.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD Analysis Today
- The Euro started a fresh decline after a strong surge above the 1.1720 zone.
- There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1660 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair rallied above the 1.1720 resistance zone before the bears appeared, as discussed in the previous analysis. The Euro started a fresh decline and traded below the 1.1660 support zone against the US Dollar.
The pair declined below 1.1620 and tested 1.1590. A low was formed near 1.1592 and the pair started a consolidation phase. There was a minor recovery wave above the 1.1610 level.
EUR/USD is now trading below the 50-hour simple moving average. On the upside, it is now facing resistance near the 1.1630 level. It is close to the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1749 swing high to the 1.1592 low.
The next key resistance is at 1.1660 and the 50% Fib retracement level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1660.
The main resistance is near the 1.1690 level. A clear move above it could send the pair toward the 1.1720 resistance. An upside break above 1.1720 could set the pace for another increase. In the stated case, the pair might rise toward 1.1750.
If not, the pair might resume its decline. The first major support on the EUR/USD chart is near 1.1590. The next key support is at 1.1550. If there is a downside break below 1.1550, the pair could drop toward 1.1520. The next support is near 1.1485, below which the pair could start a major decline.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
EURUSD The 4H MA200 distinguishes bullish from bearish.The EURUSD pair has been trading within a (blue) 2-month Channel Up since the May 12 Low and it just broke below its 4H MA100 (green trend-line). The previous two Bearish Legs of this pattern bottomed (made a Higher Low) on or just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, the price is very close to the most optimal buy level of this pattern and as long as it holds, we expect to start the new Bullish Leg and target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (1.20000 our Target just below), which is in line with the previous two Bullish Legs.
If however the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) breaks, we will take the loss on that long and go short as technically the price should seek the bottom of the (dotted) wider Channel Up. Our Target on that occasion will be 1.14000, right at the top of the High Volatility Zone.
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EUR/USD Sells from 1.17200 back downWeekly Outlook: EUR/USD (EU)
This week, my bias on EUR/USD is similar to GBP/USD, as both pairs have been following a consistent bearish trend. Based on this structure, I’ll be watching to see if price begins a retracement back into an area of supply.
I’ve marked out the 8-hour supply zone, which sits at a premium level and was responsible for the last break of structure to the downside. If price retraces into this zone, I’ll look for potential sell confirmations on the lower time frames.
If price doesn’t tap into the supply zone first, I’ll then shift my focus to the 8-hour demand zone below. In that case, I’ll watch closely for signs of accumulation and a bullish reaction from this level, which could signal the start of a rally.
Confluences for EUR/USD Sells:
✅ Bearish trend has been consistent for the past few weeks.
✅ Breaks of structure have formed new supply zones to trade from.
✅ Liquidity exists below current price, which may be targeted first.
✅ The lower demand zone remains unmitigated, suggesting further downside movement.
📌 On the way down toward demand, I expect price to form another break of structure to the downside. The plan is to ride the sells down into demand, then look for potential buy opportunities if price begins to accumulate and react.
Let’s stay sharp and disciplined — have a solid trading week, everyone! 📊
EUR/USD Holding Support — Watching for Bullish ReactionHi Everyone,
Since our last update, EUR/USD continues to range near the 1.16680 support level. We’re watching for buying interest to emerge above the key 1.16450 zone, which has acted as a critical level for the broader structure.
Should price manage to stabilise and form a base here, there’s potential for a move back towards the highlighted resistance area around 1.17450. A clear reaction from support could confirm renewed buying interest and set the stage for a retest of last week’s highs.
Our broader outlook remains unchanged: as long as price holds above 1.16450, we continue to look for the pair to build momentum for another move higher in the coming sessions. A decisive break above last week’s high could attract fresh buying interest, paving the way for a push towards the 1.19290 area and ultimately 1.20000.
We'll be watching closely to see if this recovery gains traction and whether buyers can sustain the move above resistance. The longer-term view remains bullish, provided price continues to respect the key support zone.
We’ll keep updating you through the week as the structure unfolds and share how we’re managing our active positions.
Thanks again for all the likes/boosts, comments and follows — we really appreciate the support!
All the best for the rest of the week. Trade safe.
BluetonaFX
EUR/USD 4H Technical and Fundamental AnalysisEUR/USD 4H Technical and Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD has dropped approximately –0.7% over the past week following a sharp risk-off move driven by geopolitical and economic tensions. The major catalyst was President Trump’s announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods effective August 1, which triggered a strong rally in the U.S. dollar and put the euro under heavy pressure. Broader market concerns also intensified as traders braced for further tariffs targeting sectors like copper and pharmaceuticals, compounding bearish sentiment. On our Technical Side EUR/USD recently broke below a major support zone at 1.1700, confirming a Change of Character (CHoCH) and signaling that sellers are now in control. After the break, the pair entered a phase of bearish accumulation, suggesting institutional positioning ahead of a deeper move. A liquidity grab was observed above the previous short-term high, forming a potential stop-loss hunt a common smart money tactic before a major drop. The market now appears poised for another liquidity sweep before triggering our area of interest.
A clear break and close below 1.16870 would likely confirm continuation toward the next minor support at 1.16270, aligning with bearish momentum.
📌 Sell Setup:
Entry: Sell stop at 1.16870
Stop Loss: 1.17140 (above liquidity zone)
Take Profit: 1.16270 (next key support zone)
These developments are reinforcing downside pressure on the euro, while the U.S. dollar remains well-supported by risk aversion and safe-haven flows.
📌 Disclaimer:
This is not financial advice. Always wait for proper confirmation before executing trades. Manage risk wisely and trade what you see—not what you feel.
Two Brains, One Trade: Why You Freeze Under PressureBy MJTrading:
In trading, your biggest opponent isn’t volatility.
It’s your own neural wiring.
Every trader operates with two main systems:
🧠 System 2 – Rational, deliberate, planning (Prefrontal Cortex)
🧠 System 1 – Emotional, instinctive, fast (Amygdala & Limbic Brain)
Before entry, System 2 is in control. You feel calm, logical.
But the moment money is at risk—especially in drawdown or after a missed TP—System 1 takes over.
💥 Stress hormones spike
💥 Focus narrows
💥 Long-term thinking disappears
💥 You freeze, or act impulsively
You knew what to do.
But you didn’t do it.
Because in that moment, your rational mind wasn’t driving anymore.
⚖️ Set & Forget vs. Floating Managers
Different trading personalities react differently under pressure:
🔹 Set & Forget Traders
Rely on automation or predefined exits to bypass emotional hijack.
They reduce cognitive load, but often feel regret when price goes “a little more.”
🔹 Floating Management Traders
Rely on intuition and live feeling. They stay with the chart, adjusting based on flow.
When calm and trained, they shine.
But under pressure, they’re more vulnerable to emotional loops:
– hesitation
– premature exits
– revenge tweaks
– system betrayal
🧘♂️ What can you do?
✔️ Pre-plan decisions
Make the hard calls before emotions kick in.
✔️ Mental rehearsal
Visualize trade management scenarios—yes, like athletes do.
✔️ Create fallback protocols
So if you freeze, your system still knows what to do.
🧠 For Those Who Want to Go Deeper:
“Thinking, Fast and Slow” by Daniel Kahneman
Understand System 1 & 2 thinking—and how cognitive bias shapes all decisions, not just trades.
“The Hour Between Dog and Wolf” by John Coates
A stunning look at how biology, hormones, and risk-taking collide in traders' brains.
🔓 Final Thought:
If your strategy works in theory, but breaks in real-time—
It’s time to work on your neural execution layer.
Because in trading, you don’t rise to your level of analysis—
you fall to your level of emotional wiring.
— MJTrading
#NeuroTrading #TraderTypes #TradingPsychology #SetAndForget #FloatingManagement #MindOverMarkets #EURUSD #MJTrading
Previous psychology Ideas:
Bullish continuation?The Fiber (EUR/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 1.1589
1st Support: 1.1448
1st Resistance: 1.1815
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EURUSD Weakened By New Tariff Tensions With US This is the Weekly FOREX Forecast for the week of July 14 - 18th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX market: EURSUD
The latest headlines tell the story. The tariffs are triggering a slow run to the USD safe haven. The previous week showed the USD Index closed pretty strong. There's a good chance we'll see more of the same this coming week.
Look for the strength in USD to continue to be supported by fundamental news, and outperform the other major currencies, including the EURO.
Buy USD/xxx
Sell xxx/USD
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?EUR/USD is falling towards the support level which is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 1.1632
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 1.1582
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 1.1738
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance.
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EURO - Price will rise a little and then drop to $1.1500 pointsHi guys, this is my overview for EURUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
Price earlier carved out a pennant pattern after a strong rally, with price oscillating between converging trendlines and indecision mounting near $1.1550 resistance.
After several weeks in consolidation, sellers finally broke down below the pennant base, sending price back toward the support area and trapping late buyers.
Buyers regrouped and launched a new advance, driving EUR into a well-defined rising channel.
During this channel run, two notable breakouts above interim highs were quickly followed by exits at the upper trendline.
Price now sits in a tight consolidation just under the rising channel’s ceiling near $1.1700, forming small corrective swings on lighter volume.
I expect one more shallow rally toward $1.1750 before sellers overwhelm buyers again, pushing Euro down through $1.1550 and toward the $1.1500 points.
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EURUSD Short ProjectDescription:
1. Price Drivers: smart money distribution
2. Current Trend: down
3. Momentum: confirmed bearish
Action: Waiting for entry on the intraday timeframe (Entry will be published further)
*Disclaimer: I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
Market Watch UPDATES! FOREX Major PairsWelcome to the Market Watch Updates for Monday, July 14th.
In this video, we will give the forecast updates for the following markets:
USD Index, EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
EURUSD Forming Bullish Continuation SetupEURUSD is currently retesting a key breakout zone that previously acted as resistance and is now serving as strong support around the 1.1620–1.1630 area. After a healthy bullish impulse in recent weeks, the pair is pulling back in a controlled manner, likely forming a bullish continuation setup. I entered from earlier levels and remain confident in a further upward move, with the structure showing signs of a new bullish wave forming.
From a fundamental perspective, the euro is gaining strength as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues to signal a more cautious stance on rate cuts compared to the Federal Reserve. US inflation data released last week came in softer than expected, increasing speculation that the Fed could start its rate-cutting cycle as early as September. This shift in monetary policy outlook has weighed on the US dollar, opening up room for EURUSD to push higher.
Additionally, eurozone macro data is showing early signs of recovery, especially in Germany, where industrial production and sentiment indicators are slowly improving. As inflation in Europe trends lower but remains sticky, the ECB has fewer reasons to rush into easing, which adds strength to the euro over the medium term. This divergence is a critical driver of the current bullish sentiment in EURUSD.
Technically, the market is respecting a clean demand zone, with momentum indicators starting to flatten after the recent correction. With the trend structure intact and fundamentals aligned, I'm targeting the 1.2180–1.2200 zone as the next leg of this bullish cycle. Price action remains favorable, and the broader sentiment on TradingView is also increasingly bullish, confirming my conviction in this setup.
EURUSD H4 RISES 🔄 Disrupted EUR/USD Analysis (4H)
📉 Current Structure:
Price is hovering around 1.17298, showing hesitation at the resistance of a potential bearish flag.
While the chart labels this zone as “bullish,” there are signs of market indecision, possibly a fakeout trap.
⚠️ Key Disruptions:
1. Bullish Trap Risk:
The price formed a short-term M-pattern (double top inside the orange circle), indicating bearish exhaustion rather than continuation.
The expected breakout to the upside may fail if bulls don’t sustain volume.
2. Support Area Weakness:
The support zone around 1.17000 has been tested multiple times. If it breaks, it could turn into a strong resistance, flipping the sentiment.
3. Macro Influence:
Upcoming EUR and USD economic events (noted by icons) could cause high volatility and break structure unexpectedly.
A strong USD report could reverse bullish momentum, sending EUR/USD toward 1.16500 or lower.
4. Bearish Continuation Scenario:
If the market breaks down from the current consolidation, expect targets at:
EUR/USD Retracement Into Demand ZoneHello guys!
EUR/USD is currently undergoing a healthy retracement after an extended bullish trend within the ascending channel. The price is now approaching a key demand zone, which aligns perfectly with the mid-line of the channel structure.
This zone previously acted as a strong resistance area and is now expected to serve as support, confirming a classic flip in market structure. The reaction around the 1.16288 - 1.15774 area will be crucial.
If buyers step in here, the bullish momentum is likely to resume with the next major target being the upper resistance zone near 1.20000 , as projected by the upward arrow. The overall structure remains bullish as long as the price holds above the channel support and doesn't close below the last demand zone.
EURUSD Bearish ideaWe are in a weekly fair value gap that we have balance and potentially collected orders to prepare for a potential drop in price. We are anticipating a quarterly shift for the month of July were we could be targeting downside liquidity that is in open float.
* Fundamentals:
-Interest rate differentials shows us that USD interest rate of 4.5 is higher than the interest rate EUR 2.15 which lead to the longer fundamental frame work of price correcting to the higher dollar rate to the euro.
-The COT report also indicates to us that there is huge buying of Dollar by the commercials and a huge amount of selling of the EUR by commercials which can lead us to assume potential weaker dollar.
*Targeting:
-We are looking for the low of last month (June) to be taken out as well as even potentially reaching to the implied weekly fair value gap.
EURUSD Breakout Trade EUR/USD – Breakout Confirmation
🔹 Multi-Timeframe Bullish Setup by PULSETRADESFX
EUR/USD is showing a strong bullish shift after breaking out of a well-defined descending channel. Price reacted perfectly from the demand zone and is now pushing above descending trendline resistance across the 2H chart.
This signals early signs of trend reversal, backed by confluence across intraday and higher timeframes.
The structure is clean, the R:R is healthy, and momentum favors bulls after multiple rejections at key support.
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✅ Confluences Supporting the Long:
Descending channel breakout (2H )
Triple demand zone rejection
Break and close above minor resistance
Clean bullish momentum candle
Economic catalysts ahead (watch USD data releases 📅)
📅 July 18, 2025
📊 FOREX.com | EUR/USD (2H)
#EURUSD #Forex #BreakoutTrade #BullishSetup #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingView #PULSETRADESFX