CAT1 trade ideas
CAT Swing Long Reversal UPDATECAT is now bottoming for a SALE just in time for seasonal construction and agricultural upticks.
The long view is a long uptrend that started in September and ended with a lousy earnings report in
early February. The beatdown is now ending perhaps for fundamental reasons including CAT
has cash and down not need high-interest rate costs.
See the chart for the analysis. See also the previous idea. Check DE.
I see this as an intermediate-term swing long or investment or a good choice for a long expiration
call contract of options.
[CAT] - Daily - ShortZoomed in on daily.
Last trading day Fri 17 Feb 2023, we wicked right off the C.E. of the rejection block and the upper level of the daily bearish breaker.
Currently sitting right at the C.E. of the daily bearish breaker. Want to see us move towards the lower half of the breaker and trade through it, attacking the sellside liquidity at the RELs.
CAT Swing Long ReversalCAT has a downtrend 10% from its 30-day high.
However, fundamentally the industrial is holding up quite well.
The downtrend was inverse parabolic accompanied with
an appropriate volume pattern showing 3X relative volume
This is sometimes called the retirement trade pattern
or V-type pattern. CAT has dropped to three standard
deviations below the anchored VWAP /
This makes it undervalued well below fair value.
I see this as a good setup for a long swing trade or a call options
contract with the expectation of a 50% retracement of a
10# drop or a 5% price target For the call options I will
target the anchored VWAP at a strike of $243 about 12 DTE.
CAT: Range Bound Swing TradingCAT developed one of the entry signals I teach this week. The stock rebounded from testing the lows of the trading range. Hybrid indicators suggest large-lot buying is triggering in the lows of the range.
Point gain potential may be limited by the sideways trading range developing, but swing trading can be done within the range if you can catch the entry early in the upswing from the lows and plan to exit near the highs.
This trading range will need to compress near the highs to sustain a breakout to the upside.
CATERPILLAR SHORT 2 distinct possibilities, but the RR is great.
HIGHLY dependent on SnP and US30 ofcourse, broader market implications are always extremely important to keep an eye on.
Nonetheless, wouldn't be surprised to see the first position be a sweep of wicks and then retest of lows.
Second position would mean we sweep highs of wichs but also fill the gap above before we dump to retest lows.
Let's see.
NFA.
[CAT] - Weekly - BearishATH liquidity PURGED.
RELs at $241.80 are too clean.
looking for a shift in market structure, with a break below the short term low at $225.56. Then looking at the bearish breaker acting as resistance, holding and pushing price down further.
Multiple inefficacies to the downside as targets and draws on liquidity.
Rising Wedges/DivergenceCAT had earnings this morning. I am not sure but I think something was not as expected in the earnings report.
Bearish Rising wedges noted.
A bearish crooked W noted that reached just beyond the 1.414.
Market opened as I type and I see price fell out of the small rising wedge at the top. Rising wedges are valid only after the bottom trendline is broken.
There is a bearish divergence between price action and the oscillator, RSI.
Good luck/No recommendation.
Price is above the .236 of the trend up.
Rectangle below price that may provide support.
CATERPILLAR? BearishThe head and shoulders pattern is a technical analysis chart pattern that signals a potential reversal in a stock's trend. It is considered bearish because it shows a peak (left shoulder), followed by a higher peak (head), followed by another peak that is lower than the head (right shoulder). The pattern is confirmed when the stock price falls below the support line drawn between the two low points of the pattern, known as the "neckline." This breakdown signals a potential trend reversal and is often associated with a bearish outlook for the stock.
Having an earnings date around the time of a head and shoulders pattern can add to the bearish sentiment and potentially lead to a drop in stock price. This is because an earnings release can potentially cause a large price movement, and if the earnings are not as strong as expected, it can add to the bearish momentum and drive the price further down. The head and shoulders pattern, along with a weak earnings report, can increase the likelihood of bearish price movements. However, it is important to note that other factors such as overall market conditions, company-specific news, and analyst recommendations can also impact stock price movements.
From a CAT to a Butterfly?And another one:
A New Year and a New CAT?
From what I see, CAT is forming a nice bullish flag here on the monthly timeframe. There has been a nice back test on the weekly timeframe which gives me conviction in the pattern I see forming.
Using technical analysis to form a price target, I see a conservative price target of $285 to $300, with the potential to go to $325 plus.
Of course, this will not go straight up (because that would be too easy). Considering I did not have this stock on my watch list, I will be looking to get in by the end of this week.
If playing options, I would look for calls on a longer timeframe such as a few weeks out to a few months out. I would even say that this is a buy and hold (buying stocks or even something for retirement accounts).
If this goes the way I expect it to (up), this dirty caterpillar could turn into a beautiful money butterfly for us.
Of course, I know nothing and the market is the final judge. So don't trust me, do your own due diligence. Thanks.
From a CAT to a Butterfly?And Another One:
A New Year and a new CAT?
Seems like CAT is in a bullish flag here folks. This pattern is playing out on the monthly timeframe and a nice backtest has already occurred on the weekly timeframe. But don't worry there is still plenty of time to get in, considering that this is on a longer timeframe.
Using technical analysis to predict future price, we have a conservative estimate of $285 plus with the potential to go to $300 to $350. Of course it will not shoot straight up (because that would be too easy), but if we have patience this caterpillar could turn into a beautiful money butterfly for us.
Considering I did not have this on my watch list, I will be looking to get in fairly soon. Given that it is a new year, this could be a potential for a real long term play such as a retirement account. If this does do what I expect it to (go up), this is a long term play.
If playing options, I would look for those at least a few months out (if not a few weeks), so you will be able to take advantage of the move higher. Buying stock in this would be nice as well (if you have the money).
Again we never know what the market will do, so don't trust me. In fact, you should probably trust me less than a monkey making stock picks. But do your due dilligence.